Notifications
Clear all

Free Picks: Free Service Plays for Sunday, September 17th, 2017

54 Posts
1 Users
0 Reactions
6,098 Views
(@blade)
Posts: 318493
Illustrious Member
Topic starter
 

Scott Spreitzer

Eagles vs. Chiefs
Play:Eagles +5½

Big and easy win in New England for KC and they've had extra time to prepare, but we still aren't buying. The Chiefs are 13-4 SU in their last 17 regular season games, but when you take away non-offensive TDs and turnovers gained, they're more like a 9-8 football team over the same amount of games. KC faced a Patriots' team with a lot of new parts on defense and it will take time for New England to get everyone on the same page, they were an overvalued team in week-one. But we like the look of the Eagle defense, especially the pass rush last week, and believe they will cause Alex Smith and the KC offense the type of problems they didn't have to solve last week. Add in the talent around Carson Wentz on the other side of the ball and no Eric Berry in the KC secondary and we like Philly in this spot. The Eagles are fast starters, covering five straight September games, while the Chiefs have covered just three of their last 12 at home.

 
Posted : September 17, 2017 12:01 am
(@blade)
Posts: 318493
Illustrious Member
Topic starter
 

Mike Anthony

Philadelphia vs. Kansas
Play: Philadelphia +5.5

Philadelphia is always trying to find more appropriate running plays for LeGarrette Blount which could spark an otherwise unexplosive running game for the Eagles. Philadelphia is a team that thrives on Olines not getting lanes opened from their opponents - as they have kept teams from getting big yards on the ground. I think the keys to the strategy is the Oline run blocking of course, but if Blount can make a jump in his YPC game this year, that most are thinking can happen - the rest of Philly have a continued steady improvement. He has shown great hard yard chewing with his power - the LBs of the Chiefs will struggle to stop that. Kansas City needs to try and keep Philly's big TE weapon from making the big plays on 3rd down - but their LB play makes me question this. Kansas City has to try and make sure that the Eagles don't get big 2nd opportunities off dumb penalties. But the Oline of Philly have been very smart. Kansas City really has to slow down Zach Ertz and stop Philly's passing attack as well to have a legit chance to stop their team. Kansas City had a great win last week - this could be that let down game. Chiefs are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 home games

 
Posted : September 17, 2017 12:02 am
(@blade)
Posts: 318493
Illustrious Member
Topic starter
 

Rob Vinciletti

Philadelphia vs. Kansas
Play: Philadelphia +5.5

The Eagles are off a solid divisional road win and take on KC off an opening night win over the Super bowl champs. Teams who best the defending champs tend to bounce next game out. The Chiefs are a 1-9 ats in their first home game. The Eagles are 9-1 ats as a game 2 road dog. And now for a solid system we are playing against KC as Home teams in the first 4 weeks of the season are 0-10 ats off a road dog win where they scored 35 or more points vs a team off a win.

 
Posted : September 17, 2017 12:03 am
(@blade)
Posts: 318493
Illustrious Member
Topic starter
 

Brandon Shively

Dallas vs. Denver
Pick: Dallas -2

The Dallas Cowboys lay a low number here on Sunday on the road in Denver.

Dallas handled the Giants with rather ease in their season opener, as they completely flustered them on the defensive end. Dallas allowed just 223 yards total in the process and just 3 points against.

The Cowboys offensively saw that Dak Prescott is not going to go through any sophomore slumps. Prescott and the offense put up 392 total yards, the 4th most in the NFL in Week 1.

Dallas is one of the most explosive teams on both sides of the ball. They should be able to handle a Denver team that isn't flashy and likely won't be able to sustain any drives.

 
Posted : September 17, 2017 12:04 am
(@blade)
Posts: 318493
Illustrious Member
Topic starter
 

Jim Feist

Dodgers at Nationals
Pick: Under

Washington is a big park and two outstanding pitching staffs square off. The Dodgers are 18-7-1 under the total vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15. LA goes with Hyun-Jin Ryu (3.59 ERA) has allowed 2 runs or less in 8 of his last 10 starts. The Under is 18-6-2 in Ryu's last 26 road starts. Washington has ace Stephen Strasburg going, 6-1 under when he starts. The under is 19-4-3 in the Nationals last 26 vs. the National League West.

 
Posted : September 17, 2017 12:05 am
(@blade)
Posts: 318493
Illustrious Member
Topic starter
 

DAVE COKIN

REDSKINS VS. RAMS
PLAY: REDSKINS +3

Washington might have gotten beaten by the stripes last Sunday. The fumble call on Cousins that was so critical in the battle between the Eagles and Redskins was controversial, to put it mildly. It might well have been an incomplete pass, but the call on the field was fumble and it stood. Philly might have won the game anyway, but they also might well have lost had that call gone the other way. So I’m not downgrading the Redskins for the loss to the Eagles.

I’m also not really upgrading the Rams for the shellacking they put on the hapless Colts. Indianapolis was about as bad as a team can be and whole I’ll credit the Rams for exploiting the Colts, I’m not sure it means they’re suddenly a team on the rise. This game will give us all a better idea of where they stand.

My power ratings make Washington -1. Just for the record, I consider my college ratings to be stronger than those I make in the NFL. But the numbers do indicate a little value on the Redskins side. Just as an add-on of sorts, the Rams are the sixth most popular choice this week in the Westgate NFL Supercontest, and the most popular sides in Week One were an unmitigated disaster.

If you’re playing, buy the game to +3. That’s going cost you a little juice but in a game that projects as being close, getting to that key number is important. In any event, I’ll make the Redskins the free play today.

 
Posted : September 17, 2017 8:42 am
(@blade)
Posts: 318493
Illustrious Member
Topic starter
 

Brandon Lee

Blue Jays vs. Twins
Play: Twins -135

Minnesota is worth a look here as a short home favorite against the Blue Jays on Sunday. The Twins continue to play well and are now 6-3 in their last 9 games. They send out the red-hot Kyle Gibson, who has a 0.95 ERA and 0.947 WHIP in his last 3 starts. Gibson has faced Toronto once this season and was sharp, allowing just 2 runs in 6 2/3 innings. As for the Blue Jays starter, they give the ball to Joe Biagini, who is 2-9 with a 5.40 ERA in 15 starts overall, 1-3 with a 5+ ERA on the road and allowed 5 runs on 9 hits and 3 walks in his lone start against Minnesota this season.

 
Posted : September 17, 2017 8:47 am
(@blade)
Posts: 318493
Illustrious Member
Topic starter
 

Vic Duke

Browns vs. Ravens
Play: Ravens -7½

Ravens/Browns 1:00: Baltimore's covered three straight in this series and coming off a dominating performance last Sunday at Cincinnati. The Ravens sacked Dalton five times and held the Bengals' offense to 221 total yards in a 30-0 blowout. Yes, the Browns played the Steelers tough and were defensively stout. Nevertheless, don't believe the rookie QB Kizer, who was sacked 7 times last week, can do any damage against the well rounded defense of Baltimore. Harbaugh is a sweet 7-1 ATS off a double-digit win against a less than .500 division opponent seeking revenge. Ravens the call.

 
Posted : September 17, 2017 8:48 am
(@blade)
Posts: 318493
Illustrious Member
Topic starter
 

Big Al

New England vs. New Orleans
Pick: New Orleans +7

Both of these teams were blown out in Week 1. The Saints lost by double-digits to Minnesota, while New England was embarrassed at home by the Chiefs. It’s true that New England generally bounces back after a straight-up loss — they’re 36-13 ATS their last 49 games off a loss. But a touchdown is too many points, I believe, for it to be laying on the road. And the Patriots are 2-5 ATS their last seven as road favorites of -7 or more points off a loss. Also, defending Super Bowl champions have struggled over the years in their 1st road game of the season, and especially when they’re favored in that first road game. Since 1980, they’re an awful 7-20 ATS, including 0-2 ATS off a loss. Even better for the Saints, home underdogs of more than 6 points have gone 80% ATS since 1980 in Week 2, if they’re off a pointspread defeat in Week 1. I’m grabbing the points with New Orleans.

 
Posted : September 17, 2017 8:49 am
(@blade)
Posts: 318493
Illustrious Member
Topic starter
 

Bruce Marshall

New England vs. New Orleans
Pick: New Orleans +7

Not sure this is an automatic bounce-back spot for the Patriots, who are only 3-2 vs. the line after their last five losses in reg,-season play. Tom Brady might be missing Julian Edelman, now Danny Amendola is also missing and the "D" can ill afford to lose LB Donta Hightower, out with injury. The Saints had red-zone issues on Monday at Minnesota but have covered five straight as a home dog, and Drew Brees has done more than trade points with Tom Brady in past meetings.

 
Posted : September 17, 2017 8:49 am
(@blade)
Posts: 318493
Illustrious Member
Topic starter
 

Matt Fargo

Eagles vs. Chiefs
Play: Eagles +6

Kansas City is coming off an awesome performance at New England last Thursday as it dominated the scoreboard and the stat sheet as it outgained the Patriots by 166 total yards. That memory is fresh in the minds of the public and the linesmakers knew they needed to adjust this line based on that opener so the value is riding with the underdog. While the Chiefs looked unbeatable against New England, a lot of that had to do with the play of the Patriots which were out of synch on offense with a plethora of new faces and in-game injuries on both sides of the ball. You cannot overlook the fact that the Chiefs committed 15 penalties for 139 yards. Philadelphia is coming off a solid win at Washington as it benefitted from four Redskins turnovers but still won the yardage battle by 92 yards. The Eagles possess a nice balance on offense and a play-making defense which makes them dangerous every week. Coming off a divisional win like that could cause a possible letdown but the fact that it is just Week Two negates any sort of letdown talk plus the Eagles have won 15 of their last 20 follow up Redskins games. Eagles head coach Doug Pedersen knows the Chiefs and their tendencies after spending numerous years under Andy Reid so it will be difficult for him to get outcoached here. The road team is an incredible 46-14 ATS in the last 60 Kansas City games and going back, the Chiefs are 1-7 ATS in their last eight games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.

 
Posted : September 17, 2017 9:43 am
(@blade)
Posts: 318493
Illustrious Member
Topic starter
 

Larry Ness

San Francisco vs. Seattle
Pick: Seattle -14

The San Francisco 49ers and Seattle Seahawks meet Sunday at CenturyLink Field, with both teams coming off Week 1 losses in which their respective offenses were unable to reach the end zone. The rebuilding 49ers under new general manager John Lynch and head coach Kyle Shanahan was able to generate only 217 yards of total offense in a 23-3 home loss to the Panthers, while the Seahawks, coming of five consecutive trips to the playoffs (six in seven years), mustered just three FGs and 225 total yards in a 17-9 opening week loss at Green Bay. The Seahawks lead the series 21-15, having won six straight games and eight of the past nine meetings.

San Francisco's new starting QB is Brian Hoyer and he threw for only 193 yards (24 of 35 with one INT and four sacks) and did not lead the team to a touchdown. The Hoyer-led offense produced only 217 total yards. It sure didn't help that the running game accounted for just 51 yards OR that San Francisco was playing from behind all game. The 49ers were 2-13 on third down and 1 of 4 on fourth down. Throw in 10 penalties for 74 yards. and you understand why QB Hoyer said, "(We) shot ourselves in the foot. We were battling uphill, and a lot of it had to do with our own mistakes and not so much exactly what they were doing."

New Seattle RB Eddie Lacy gained just three yards on five carries and QB Russell Wilson also was mediocre with just 158 yards on 14-of-27 passing while operating behind an offensive line experiencing major issues (allowed three sacks and Wilson often had little time to throw). "Well, I think we can all be better," Wilson told reporters. "It's not just those guys. I'm the biggest critic of myself, I think there's a couple of throws in there that I could hit and find a way to make those throws. I think winners find a way to win."

As noted, Seattle has won six straight games in the series (6-0 ATS), as well as eight of the past nine meetings. Seattle is off a bitter loss to the Packers, meaning Shanahan's Hoyer-led offense must solve one of the NFL’s top defenses in a stadium where the 49ers haven’t won since the before Russell Wilson's 2012 rookie season. Seattle's only victory during its last nine meetings with San Francisco (eight wins) that was decided by fewer than 10 points was 2016's Week 17 game. Lay the big points!

 
Posted : September 17, 2017 9:44 am
(@blade)
Posts: 318493
Illustrious Member
Topic starter
 

Eric Schroeder

The Indianapolis Colts should serious think about shutting Andrew Luck down. For the sake of him, and the sake of the the worst team in the league. The Colts are bad.

That's why my free play for Sunday is on the Arizona Cardinals.

One week after being humiliated by 37 points by the Los Angeles Rams, the Colts will be pummeled at home by Arizona.

I know there are some injury concerns for Arizona on offense, especially on Carson Palmer's blindside, but the Cardinals will have prepared for that, and will use resources to help out.

You can expect Arizona's secondary to stifle the stagnant Indy air attack, thanks to the absence of Luck, while the Cardinals' defensive front will have no trouble stuffing the Colts’ ground game.

5* ARIZONA

 
Posted : September 17, 2017 11:18 am
(@blade)
Posts: 318493
Illustrious Member
Topic starter
 

Tommy Brunson

Sunday's comp play is the Vikings plus the points against the Steelers.

Minnesota may have one less day of preparation under their belts, but they looked to be the better of the two teams on the field last week, as the Vikings did a number at home against the Saints, while the heavily-favored Steelers simply could not pull away from the Browns in Cleveland.

Pittsburgh is likely to be better this time around, especially at home, but Minnesota does have some nice spread numbers to support their cause, as Minny is 10-2 against the spread their last 12 games versus the AFC, and they are also on a 22-9 overall spread run after their win and cover over New Orleans.

The Vikings addressed their biggest concern in the off-season, as they bolstered their offensive line. The results were impressive on Monday, as Sam Bradford was sacked just one time. Throw in emerging rookie Dalvin Cook and his big play skills, and the Vikings top-five defense, and I think we have a game today that gets decided by no more than a field goal.

Take the underdog Vikings.

2* MINNESOTA

 
Posted : September 17, 2017 11:18 am
(@blade)
Posts: 318493
Illustrious Member
Topic starter
 

Jack Brayman

Short and sweet freebie: the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, laying the points to the Chicago Bears.

I don't know how long it's been since the Bears last won a road game (no, I actually do), but it won't happen today. Chicago has no shot at going in and challenging a team I think will make the playoffs.

The Bears haven't won a road game since - drum roll - Week 16 of 2015, when they knocked off the Buccaneers, 26-21. That was 630 days ago.

The Bears have lost eight straight on the road dating back to that - basically 0-8 in 2016 - and keep in mind in last year's trip to Tampa we saw the Bucs thump Chicago, 36-10, coming out of its bye week.

Take Tampa Bay.

1* BUCCANEERS

 
Posted : September 17, 2017 11:18 am
Page 3 / 4
Share: