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Free Picks: Free Service Plays for Sunday, September 17th, 2017

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Joey Juice

Oakland is at home on the West Coast and they welcome the Jets from the other coast who are coming off a 21-12 defeat in Buffalo last week. The Raiders meanwhile beat the Titans 26-16 in Tennesee last week.

The last two times these teams met the Raiders beat the Jets 34-20, that was way back in 2015.

A look inside the numbers show that the Jets can't win in Oakland, they are 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games in Oakland. These Jets also don't fare well against teams with winning records, they are a mere 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games against winning teams.

Finally the Jets don't play well in the beginning of the Season, especially in September where they are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games.

On the other side of the ball, the Raiders are a great team in September going 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games in this month. The Raiders are also a great team at home, they are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games. In fact the home team has a huge advantage in this series, 7-2-1 ATS in the last 10 meetings between these Jets and Raiders.

This should be a huge blowout, Oakland style.

Lay the points with Oakland.

2* OAKLAND

 
Posted : September 17, 2017 11:19 am
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Chris Jordan

My free winner for Sunday is on the Los Angeles Rams, laying a cheap number to the Washington Redskins.

Not sold on Kirk Cousins, whatsoever, but what I am sold on is how well the Rams played last week. Sure, it was against a terrible Indianapolis Colts team that may be the worst in the league, but Los Angeles beat Indy the way it should have.

The Redskins traveling cross country is going to be an issue for me, as well. By the time these teams are finished on the field, it will be damn near 8 p.m. And making this trip is not something you want to do in Week 2 at 0-1.

Now, the other issue is Washington has a game against the physical, talented Raiders next week, and that doesn't make this game any easier. As the Rams pull away and control this game, you have to decide how to keep your guys healthy.

Look for the Rams to have enough confidence to bully Cousins and the Redskins offense.

3* RAMS

 
Posted : September 17, 2017 11:19 am
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DAVE PRICE

Eagles vs. Chiefs
Play: Eagles +6

The Kansas City Chiefs are getting too much respect from the books after their 42-27 win in New England last week. The Chiefs played well, but the Patriots are in bad shape right now. And now the Chiefs are being asked to lay 6 points at home against a Philadelphia Eagles team that is going to be one of the most improved in the NFL this year. The Eagles won 30-17 at Washington last week behind a huge game from Carson Wentz. I think Wentz has the moxy to take the show on the road again this week and win in a tough environment at Arrowhead Stadium. The Eagles went 7-9 last year, but 6 of those losses came by a touchdown or less. I expect this one to go down to the wire, so the +6 price on the Eagles is a good one.

 
Posted : September 17, 2017 11:20 am
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Will Rogers

New York at Atlanta
Pick: Atlanta -164

The set-up: The Mets snapped a five-game losing streak with Saturday's 7-3 win in Atlanta, while the Braves lost for just the third time in 10 games. Neither team has anything significant to play for, as the Mets are 64-84 and the Braves, 67-80. However, as the teams play the rubber match of this three-game series Sunday afternoon at SunTrust Park, the Braves can match last season’s total of 68 victories with a win.

The pitching matchup: Robert Gsellman (6-7 & 5.58 ERA) takes the mound for New York, opposed by Atlanta's Julio Teheran (11-11 & 4.57 ERA). Gsellman owns a 3.86 ERA in five appearance since returning from a minor-league rehab assignment in August, after having a 6.16 ERA when he injured his left hamstring in late June. Gsellman has made four appearances (three starts) versus the Braves in 2017, going 2-1 despite surrendering 11 runs (10 earned) on 21 hits in 16 2/3 innings (5.40 ERA). Teheran opened the season as Atlanta's ace (well-deserved designation) but has struggled for the better part of the 2017 season. However, he comes in 4-0 with a 2.08 ERA over 26 innings in his last four outings. Teheran is 1-1 with a 3.33 ERA in four starts versus the Mets in 2017 (Braves are 2-2) and 8-4 with a 2.56 ERA in 19 appearances (18 starts / team is 10-8 ) against them all-time.

The pick: Teheran has been an excellent home pitcher for the Braves in his career but not here in 2017, with the team's move to SunTrust Park. He's 8-2 with a 2.84 ERA on the road in 2017 but 3-9 with a 6.47 ERA at SunTrust Park. However, as noted above, he comes in on a nice roll (4-0 & 2.08 ERA), including winning his last two starts at home. I'm 'buying' Teheran.

 
Posted : September 17, 2017 11:21 am
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Bob Balfe

Steelers -6

I love this scenario. Minnesota looked great on MNF against an awful defense so people think they are legit. This might be the case, but remember the Vikings have a completely brand new offensive line heading out on the road against a stadium that is loud and tough to play in. The Steelers are great at spreading the field with their receivers which can help against a great Minnesota Defense. I love everything about the Steelers Offense this year and I just don’t see Minnesota matching them with their offense score for score today.

 
Posted : September 17, 2017 11:23 am
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Hank Goldberg

Packers at Falcons
Play: Falcons -2.5

For Sunday’s Week 2 matchup between the Packers and Falcons, I’m leaning to Atlanta as a home favorite over Green Bay. Too much firepower for the Falcons and the new stadium will be lit up in the Sunday night finale. Packers will hang around but eventually the defense will fade away. Expect Atlanta to notch six scores and I would be surprised to see less than 20 hung on the board. Lay the points!

 
Posted : September 17, 2017 11:24 am
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Harry Bondi

Jets / Raiders Under 43.5

Despite seeing their game go over the total last week in Buffalo, this Jets offense may still end up being one of the worst in history. The aggregate talent level at the skill positions is as bad as we have ever seen and now they have to head to the West Coast and play on the road for a second straight week in front of a pumped up Raider fan base. In addition, the Jets have gone under in 10 of their last 16 road games and our database also provides a strong trend that favors the under today: Double-digit favorites playing at home in Week 2 have gone under in 34 of the last 51 chances, including an even stronger 10-1 to the under the last 10 years. Oakland goes through the motion and gets the “W” in a low-scoring affair.

 
Posted : September 17, 2017 11:25 am
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Tony Finn

San Francisco at Seattle
Play: Seattle -14

A National Football Conference contest from the Western Division at CenturyLink Field between San Francisco at Seattle kicks off the second half of NFL Sunday's Week #2 late slate. Start time for this west coast affair is scheduled for 4:25 p.m. ET in Seattle, Washington.

Like Lambeau Field is for the Seahawks - CenturyLink has been a 49ers road trip nightmare recently - with San Fran not having experienced victory for over half a decade.

The Seahawks (0-1) offense was contained last Sunday in Green Bay. Russell Wilson and his teammates managed just three field goals in a 17-9 loss to the Packers. The overhauled San Francisco 49ers, both in the front office and on the sideline, fell under new coach Kyle Shanahan after dropping a 23-3 decision to the Carolina Panthers.

Seahawks are riding a smart 6-0 straight up and 5-0-1 against the spread run in the series while the Niners sport a 5-13 ATS mark in their last 18 road affairs.

The visiting San Francisco offense disappointed in their Week #1 home loss to Cam Newton and the Panthers. Offensive minded Shanahan and his unit could muster a mere 217 yards and 13 first downs in his head coaching debut. There were expectations that the former Atlanta Falcon offensive coordinator could coach up quarterback Bobby Hoyer in the team’s season opener. While Hoyer was efficient and effective in finding the open receiver against the Panthers defense, going 24-of-35 through the air, he threw for only 193 yards with no touchdowns and one interception.

Running back Carlos Hyde had nine carries for 45 yards and grabbed six passes from Hoyer in the loss. Pierre Garcon was the leading 49ers receiver with six catches for 81 yards.

The Niners defense didn't pressure the rusty and less than 100 percent Newton and will have to travel to take on the 'Hawks offense at CenturyLink without rookie outside linebacker Reuben Foster (ankle) who didn't practice this week and isn't expected to be available for Sunday's afternoon divisional game.

Wilson and the Seahawks offense never looked comfortable against the Packers last weekend. Wilson recorded just 158 yards on 14-of-27 passing and the expectation that the Seattle offense would take a week or two to find their rhythm behind a reworked offensive line came to fruition.

Running back Eddie Lacy gained just three yards on five carries. Defensive All-Pro corner Richard Sherman (hamstring) is in jeopardy of missing the first regular-season game of his seven-year career but the expectations for the strong season for the Seahawks defense remains intact with a healthy Michael Bennett (1.5 sacks) and free safety Earl Thomas (11 tackles) ready for the clubs home opener.

The Seahawks also expect to have help in the backfield with the return of RB Thomas Rawls (ankle). The Seahawks tailback missed the season opener against the Packers with an ankle sprain. Rawls has a strong history against the San Francisco defense. He gaining a career-high 209 yards against the franchise in 2015.

The public is supporting Wilson and the Hawks on Sunday. The opening number of minus-13 has moved a point north to minus-14 as many remember a season ago when Seattle was coming off a 9-3 loss to the Rams only to respond with a 37-18 rout of the Niners, as a double-digit favorite.

The difference in this game will be defense. Seattle will make it tough for the Shanahan scheme to succeed on what is expected to be a rain soaked field. The Seahawks defense has a healthy Earl Thomas and the addition of Sheldon Richardson will limit the Niners ability to run the football.

It isn't reasonable to expect the young 49ers to have completely comprehended the expansive Shanahan playbook this early in the season and most notable for the new head coach is that he is working with lesser talent than he had in Atlanta and still isn't comfortable with what part of his scheme to implement with his current Niners roster.

The status quo remains the same for most of the Seattle player personnel and the slightest improvement by the Seahawks offense line makes this game one sided.

 
Posted : September 17, 2017 11:26 am
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Jimmy Moore

Broncos +2.5

Have to love getting Denver and points at home since Denver has covered 7 of the last 9 against Dallas (including the last 5 played in Denver) and the Cowboys have to come down off of a big high - winning on the opening Sunday night game against a huge division rival. Denver is 8-1 ATS in their 2nd home game going against a non-divisional team and Dallas is still dealing with the off-field distraction surrounding Elliot. Take the home standing Broncos and the points here.

 
Posted : September 17, 2017 11:35 am
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