Free Picks and Service Plays for Sunday, September 18th, 2016 from some of the nations best and worst handicappers.
Sleepyj
Chiefs / Texans Under 43.5
Under is the way to go here I think....Last year the Chiefs won this game...This year it might be a bit different...Texans have revenge here and a good defense at home that should play tough...If you watched the Chiefs game last week concerns are in order...The O-Line for the Chiefs played horrible...If Alex Smith doesn't have enough time, the Chiefs offense will be bogged down...I expect that here..Chiefs ran the ball last week rather well and Smith used the RB's out of the back field quite often...Smith didn't do a ton of down field passing till last in the game..That was against the Chargers however..This Texans defense will be much tighter IMO..This will be a game that will be played to not make mistakes....Chiefs defense last week started out very slow and got gashed by Philip Rivers...I'm sure the Chiefs will have a long practice on defense all week..Stressing how important it will be to stop the pass here of the Texans...Texans are talented at WR, but I feel the big trouble spot is QB....Osweiler isn't in tun yet and that showed last week as he struggled at times against the Bears..Texans RB Miller had a good game and got a healthy dose of the rock...He rushed for 106 yards on 26 carries..I think this game starts out slow with some basic runs and short passes to loosen up the defense..Andy Reid isn't the type of coach to take chances...I also feel the same way with the Texans HC in Bill O'Brien...Why would O'Brien have Osweiler throwing like crazy early in this game..He could end up with mistakes from a inexperienced QB with a new team...They should ease in here for both teams..Special teams can be an issue as they both have some good return men..Hopefully that doesn't strike in this game..Under looks solid to me..Tight game close to vest for this one.
DAVE COKIN
EAGLES AT BEARS
PLAY: BEARS -3
Carson Wentz certainly enjoyed a fine debut as the new Eagles QB led his team to a comfortable win at Cleveland. Wentz will now look to shine under the Monday night spotlight as Philadelphia hits the road to challenge the Bears in Chicago.
I was definitely impressed with Wentz, but I think this is a different situation. First and foremost, while the Bears are not exactly a powerhouse, they’re better than the hapless Cleveland Browns. So is even other team in the NFL for that matter. I don’t think there’s much argument to the Browns residing in the dreaded #32 spot on the NFL power rankings chart. So while I’m not going to knock the Wentz debut, I’m also taking it with a hefty grain of salt.
I thought the Bears looked decent at Houston. Chicago actually led the game at the half following an impressive drive engineered by QB Jay Cutler. The second half was a different story, as the Bears offense bogged down and they eventually ended up dropping a 23-14 decision to the Texans.
But if you’re a Bears fan, there was probably some reason to perhaps be a shade more optimistic about this team moving forward off the Week One effort. They definitely competed against what sure looks like a capable Houston entry, and did so on the road to boot.
I think there’s a good chance the Bears even their record at 1-1 here. My number for this matchup with the Eagles is higher than the current posted line, and I like the situation as well. It’s the first start on the road for Wentz, and that’s a far cry from getting to break in at home against the bottom of the NFL barrel.
I also like the fact that it appears as though the Eagles are proving to be popular with the public bettors early on this week, while the perceived sharper dollars at the outset arrived on the Bears. It’s not a blind follow for me by any means, but it’s also not exactly a secret that I frequently will embrace the concept of fading public underdogs. So while it’s not on my official card just yet, I’m strongly considering playing the Bears, and will probably do so if I can do a bit better than the current price tag. Mark down the Bears as a definite opinion at the very least.
Art Aronson
Bucs vs. Cardinals
Play: Bucs +6½
Setting the scene: Tampa looked impressive in its 31-24 win on the road at division rival Atlanta last week, a performance which has made us a believer. For this week at least. It’ll be a tall order to win back-to-back away from friendly confines to open the season, but the young and full of confidence Bucs will take their best shot and try to hit this reeling Cards team while it’s down.
Tampa Bay: Winston had four TD passes last week in a hostile environment and the second year-pro will be asked to duplicate that performance in another tough building. In all Winston was 23 of 33 for 281 yards, hooking up with four different players for major scores.
Arizona: We had a play on the UNDER in the Pats/Cards game on Sunday night. Arizona’s high-octane offense was slowed down by a New England defense which was ranked in the Top 10 a year ago. The game should have gone OVER obviously, but Chandler Catanzaro’s missed 47-yard FG with 41 seconds left to play sealed the home sides fate.
The bottom line: We also had the Patriots as the second part of a two-team 7-point teaser, getting down a few days earlier at +7. By closing the line moved to +9.5. Was last season a fluke for Carson Palmer? Only time will tell, however we didn’t see anything from the veteran or the Cardinals to warrant this large a spread, considering the talent and depth of their next opponent. While we wouldn’t be shocked by another outright upset, we’ll ultimately recommend to grab as many points as you can.
Strike Point Sports
Arizona (-6.5) over Tampa Bay
Tampa Bay looked very good this past weekend, but that was against an Atlanta Falcons team that is nowhere near as good as the Arizona Cardinals. Arizona isn't happy with the way they played against New England, and they will right the ship in front of their home fans this weekend. Arizona has the ability to dominate the football on both sides of the line this weekend as they will put relentless pressure on Winston and cause him to force passes and turn the ball over. Each turnover will put more and more pressure on the Tampa defense, causing easy points for the Cards. Look for the Bucs to struggle to stop David Johnson in both the run game and the passing game. The Cards offense is going to be just too much in this one as the receiving corps plays well and Carson Palmer gets this team back on track. Take the favorite here as they win 34-21.
Allen Eastman
Baltimore (-6.5) over Cleveland
As for this pick, play it now because this line is going to move. I think it will get to 7.5 by kickoff. The Browns are in for another long season. Baltimore is coming off a strong Week 1 win over Buffalo. Now they should move to 2-0 by beating the lowly Browns. Cleveland looked terrible last week against the Eagles and their rookie quarterback, giving up 29 points. Baltimore has won 8 of 10 in this series. And if you go back to last year and include this preseason the Ravens are 7-0 ATS while the Browns are 1-7 ATS in that same period. The road team is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings in this series and the Ravens are 7-1 ATS in their last eight trips to Cleveland. I think that Baltimore wins this one by a blowout.
Jason Sharpe
Tennessee / Detroit Over 47
There's usually lots of improvement by second-year starting quarterbacks in the NFL. The Tennessee Titans are hoping that they see the same thing from their second-year QB Marcus Mariota as the former Heisman Trophy winner played well last year in his rookie season. The Titans did a nice job this past offseason getting their franchise quarterback some more help on offense. Mariota faces a below-average Detroit Lions defense here in this game, one that allowed 385 yards passing last week against Andrew Luck and the Indianapolis Colts. The Lions offense is the strength of their team as the Lions put up the highest point total in Week 1 as they scored 39 points in their winning effort. The Lions are playing more of a faster, no huddle offense a majority of the time this season, and that seems to be the style of play that that works best for their current personnel. The Lions offense should be able to put up some points again this week as they go up against one of the worst defenses in the NFL here in this game. All things add up and I expect this one to get to at least at least 50 combined points scored.
Bryan Leonard
Seahawks at Rams
Play: Rams +3.5
The Seahawks really struggled at home last week in beating the Dolphins. The offense line continues to be a problem and the quarterback has a sprained ankle. Without his mobility the Seahawks are a totally different team offensively.
The Rams have matched up better with the Seahawks than any other team in the league. It's the very first regular season home game in LA and we expect an overflow crowd. Coming off an embarrassing loss to the 49ers on MNF we look for a rebound from the host.
Buster Sports
Bengals at Steelers
Play: Under 49
The Pittsburgh Steelers and the Cincinnati Bengals play an early important game for the fight for bragging rights in the AFC North. We believe its going to be a good old smashmouth who blinks first type of game, which should make it low scoring. The Steelers without a whole bunch of pieces on offense made the Redskins look sick on Monday Night. Today they will face a Cincinnati Bengal squad who gave up 152 yards rushing to the Jets. The conclusion would be that the Steelers who rushed for 147 yards themselves against the Redskins might have a field day with the Bengals poor rushing defense. But wait a minute, this is the NFL and one weeks results don't always continue the following week. Especially when its only week 2. The Steelers will get their yards rushing but this Cincinnati defense was 2nd in points allowed last year averaging 17.4 per game so they have that bend don't break mentality. The Steelers defense always seems to be strong and they looked good against Washington opening week. This game comes down to both teams trying to control the clock and keep the other offense off the field. The Under is 6-1 in the last 7 meetings in Pittsburgh and with this game scheduled in Week 2 we see this one going under the total as well.
Cal Sports
Bengals at Steelers
Play: Bengals +3
The Bengals are one of 4 teams this year to open their season with B2B away games and while those teams went 0-5 SU/ATS LY I feel that disadvantage is lessened with the Steelers off a Monday Night road game. The Bengals have certainly been on the short side of the scoreboard recently in this series as they have dropped 5 of 6 meetings including LY's playoff game. Remember, Cincy led that game 16-15 and on Pittsburgh’s last drive both Vontaz Burflict and Adam Jones had inexcusable 15-yard penalties to allow the Steelers to kick a 35-yard FG with :14 left.
Under Andy Dalton the Bengals have become a very good road team as they showed again last week. After the Jets scored late in the 4Q to take a 22-20 lead Dalton lead a 55 yard - 9 play drive culminating with a Mike Nugent 47-yard FG with :54 left. Cincinnati is also 4-1 ATS as a division AD the L2Y and beat Pittsburg their last trip here, 16-10 as a 1-point dog. The Bengals were the #2 scoring defense in the NFL last season and anytime you can back a defensive dog with legitimate revenge I will usually do so.
Wunderdog
Green Bay @ Minnesota
Pick: Minnesota +3
If Minnesota fans didn't have enough to be excited about here in their home opener vs. a bitter division rival, the Vikings open a new stadium in prime time on national TV, and the place is going to electric! The Packers under Aaron Rodgers have been known as an offensive powerhouse. And, the Green Bay offense scored 28 points last week, and that may give the appearance that the Pack offense is back after struggling last season. After all, they have a slimmer Eddie Lacey, and Jordy Nelson is back in the fold and of course, the mighty Aaron Rodgers under center. Is all good in Green Bay? A closer look at the 28 points shows some disturbing numbers, which look a lot like last year. The Packers were out gained by the Jags last week. Aaron Rodgers threw for just 199 yards on 34 attempts, performing worse than last year when he had his worst year as a pro. The Packers running game produced just 95 yards on 25 carries. They now play on the road for the second straight week against a top five defense that's going to be fired up. Rodgers has a losing record in his career vs. strong defenses (those allowing 13 to 19 points per game), where he is just 7-8, throwing for just just 6.8 yards per attempt. Adrian Peterson was stopped cold last week, but he has had some monster games vs. Green Bay, and it isn't very often he is stopped two weeks in a row. Under head coach Mike Zimmer, the Vikings are 25-9 ATS including 14-5 as an underdog. Nelson and Rodgers may do some damage as the season progresses, but the Pack offense has not been good since the start of last year and until I see otherwise, they are overrated in my book. Take the points on Minnesota.
Dave Cokin
Jacksonville +3
Tough opening week results for both the Jaguars and Chargers. Each was a close game loser. But I have to think the similarity ends right there. Jacksonville came up short against the Packers, but they did lots of good things in that game and should be encouraged even though they're sitting 0-1. I'm not sure the same atmosphere prevails for San Diego. The Chargers blew a 24-3 lead and also lost their best receiver in the process, as Keenan Allen was lost for the season with the dreaded ACL tear. Top pick Joey Bosa is now on the active roster, but he's not ready to play yet and is unlikely to make his debut in this game. The one big positive out out last week's game was a breakout of sorts by RB Melvin Gordon. But all in all, this was a terrible loss on every level for the Chargers. For a team that had Murphy's Law chasing them around throughout 2015, I can't think of a worse way to get a new campaign underway. The Jaguars look like the better team to me, and there's also a nice road dog angle that applies to this game. I would expect this to be a competitive battle, but I definitely like the idea of grabbing a field goal with the Jaguars.
Stephen Nover
Bengals / Steelers Under 48.5
This is a huge, intense rivalry game where nothing is going to come cheap. The Bengals allowed the second-fewest points in the NFL last season. The Steelers have held the Bengals to 17, 16, 20 and 16 points during their last four meetings going back to late 2014.
Cincinnati's offense isn't as good as it was in 2015 when Andy Dalton was healthy. Dalton is back, but the Bengals are without injured tight end Tyler Eifert and their wide receiving corps took a step back losing Marvin Jones and Mohammed Sanu. Brandon LaFell, Tyler Boyd and C.J. Uzomah are downgrades from Jones, Sanu and Eifert.
The Bengals have defended well on the road against Ben Roethlisberger intercepting him eight times while holding him to seven touchdown throws during the past seven games played in Pittsburgh. The Bengals also have kept Antonio Brown in check holding him to 60 fewer receiving yards in the last three games than Brown has averaged when Roethlisberger has been his quarterback.
The Steelers are missing weapons, too, with Le'Veon Bell and Martavis Bryant under suspension and projected starting tight end LaDarius Green hurt.
Note, too, the field conditions. Pittsburgh's Heinz Field is a grass field and one of the more difficult venues to make field goals. There also is a 48 percent chance of rain.
King Creole
Bengals / Steelers Under 49
My boy Speedee saw the Tuesday morning opening line of 48 pts for this division clash, and that got his attention big-time. Let the squares bet this one up (based on Pit's Monday Night outburst)... and then we'll DIVE in on the UNDER. This is a Bengals / Steelers that has averaged only 35.0 combined PPG (1-6 O/U) in the last seven meetings at Pittsburgh. Don't forget to check out the LOW-scoring TEAM trends for this game.
CIN: 0-3 O/U in Game Two (35.7 ppg)... 0-6 O/U in 2nd of BB RG... 0-4 O/U with division revenge... 1-5 O/U L6 as div RD's... 1-4 O/U before Denver.
PIT: 1-10 O/U in Game Two (30.3 ppg)... 2-7 O/U after a non-conference road games... 2-5 O/U as div home fav s of 7 < pts... 1-6 O/U L7 home vs Cincy (only 35.0 ppg).
It'll be a short week for the host Steelers, off that Monday game against Washington. 0-7 O/U last 3 years: All DIVISION home teams off a non-division MONDAY road game (Pit) when the OU line is 49 pts (Pit) vs an opponent off a SU win of 3 points.
This is one of those Week Two divisional games that we mentioned on Page Three (All Systems are Go) of my OU newsletter... that tend to be low-scoring... 1-10 O/U last 6 years: All GAME TWO division home favorites (Pit) when the OU line is in the range of 42 to 53 points.
In the AFC North, when they set the OU line in the mid-to-high range (like this one), we want to go UNDER... 3-17-2 O/U All-Time: All AFC NORTH Division games in which the host is favored by > 2 pts (Steelers) and the OU line is 43 or more points.
Vegas Butcher
TEN @ DET -6
The Titans took a 10-0 lead into halftime, and towards the end of the 3rd quarter were driving deep in Vikings’ territory up 10-6 at the time. A terrible decision by Mariota led to a 77-yard INT for a TD by the Vikings and another defensive TD on a fumble two drives later pretty much sealed the game for the visitors. But let’s not forget that the Titans looked pretty good for most of the game, as they seemed to be in total control throughout against a ‘playoff’ type of an opponent (albeit with Shaun Hill at QB). Detroit is coming off a road win where they were involved in a shoot-out with the Colts. Indy D is horrible, and I don’t think it’ll be as easy against the Titans. One major issue for the Lions is that Levy is doubtful, and he’s their best linebacker. Against a Titans team that wants to run the ball, Detroit is going to be at a huge disadvantage in the middle level of their D. In addition with a game @ Green Bay coming up, the Lions better not be overlooking this Tennessee team. I actually expect a close game here. Lean: TEN +6
MIA @ NE -6.5
When spreads came out in the off-season, NE was listed as a -9.5 home favorite in this matchup. Then of course Brady was suspended. Brady alone is worth around 6/6.5 points, so the adjusted line should be around -3.5 without him. It’s a FG more than that. Hmmm… Let’s not forget that in addition to Brady, NE will most likely be without Gronk again and possibly Solder, their starting tackle. Defensively, they’re already without Ninkovich and now Hightower is set to miss the game as well. Miami almost beat the Seahawks last week, in Seattle, as their defense played an excellent game. I see no reason why they can’t play another close one against a divisional opponent missing one of the best QB’s ever. And to those saying that Miami played on the West Coast in week 1 and then have to travel again this week, making this game especially tough on them. Let’s not forget that when the Dolphins were on their flight back home, the Pats were just kicking off their game in Arizona. Lean: MIA +6.5
BAL @ CLE +6
The pre-season spread on this game was CLE +3, so clearly there’s a huge over-reaction to week 1 results. Remember, RGIII is out, which is an improvement in itself for the Browns. McCown was actually pretty decent last year before going down with an injury, and I think he’s an upgrade over Griffin. And it’s not like this Ravens offense set the world on fire last week. They managed 13 points at home against a Bills D that just allowed Fitzpatrick and Co. to methodically carve them up for 37 a few days ago. Flacco is playing his second game off an ACL injury last year, the run-game is a big question mark, and their best WR is a 37-year old coming off an Achilles tear. This is a divisional game and the home underdog seems to have a lot of value. Lean: CLE +6
CIN @ PIT -3
Another ‘playoff revenge’ game here as Cincy’s season ended last year when the Steelers barely squeaked out a win on the road in the post-season. If you remember, that game had a lot of drama, especially in the way it ended. You can expect the Bengals to be ready. Steelers are coming off a MNF game so they have a little less time to prepare. In any case, when top AFC North teams go at it, I typically look to bag the underdog. These tend to be close slugfests, and points tend to be at the premium. Lean: CIN +3
DAL @ WAS -3
Both teams are off losses, though Washington got totally outclassed by Pittsburgh while Dallas lost a really close one to the Giants. The problem for Washington is that next week’s game against the Giants might be more on some players’ minds than this contest against the Cowboys. Norman and Cruz have been involved in some ‘trash talk’ already, so we’ll see how focused him and his teammates are for this contest. One key factor to keep in mind is that Washington’s run-D was abysmal against Pittsburgh, and we all know that Dallas will be looking to dominate the run-game as well. I think Prescott played pretty well last week, and Cowboys looked like a better team than Washington. Lean: DAL +3
NO @ NYG -4.5
Saints D is atrocious again, and with their best CB, Delvin Breaux, on the shelf for at least 6 weeks, they should be even worse. Giants offense should move the ball with ease. But can the Saints do the same? JPP is injured and could very well miss the game or be very limited. Without him, I don’t see the pass-rush being as good of course, which will enable Brees to pick apart the secondary. These teams played last year and the Saints were -3 point favorites at home. Now the bookmakers are saying that the Giants are 1.5 points better this season compared to ’15? I don’t buy it. Lean: NO +4.5
SF @ CAR -13.5
This line was -11.5 when it opened before the season started, and now it’s 2-points higher? What gives? Carolina lost to Denver, while San Fran shut out the Rams. Yes, San Fran is playing on short-week and has to travel to the East, playing in the 1 PM EST time slot. Not an easy game from the scheduling perspective. Still, all of this information was available to the bookmakers early as well, yet the line is different now. Everyone expects a bounce-back from the Panthers of course and for San Fran to revert ‘back’ I guess? But back to what? Remember, this is a different team from last year with Kelly running the show now. Shutting out any team in the NFL isn’t easy and San Fran’s D did that last week. Too many points in my opinion here. Lean: SF +13.5
TB @ ARZ -7
Preseason spread was -9 Cardinals, and this line was at -6.5 most of the week. Clearly an over-reaction to week 1 results. Tampa isn’t as good and Cards aren’t as bad as they looked. The number is much tougher to play now though. Lean: ARZ -7
JAX @ SD -3
Without Keenan Allen last year, San Diego was terrible offensively, as they averaged 8 fewer points per game. Rivers went from averaging almost 8 PY/A and 70% Comp% with Allen to 6.5 PY/A and 62% Comp% without him with 11:6 TD/INT rate (18:7 with him in 8 games). This team is going to be much less efficient going forward offensively. Defensively they’ll be without Bosa once again (injured) and after allowing almost 6 YPP to the Chiefs last week, this defense clearly isn’t very good. Lean: JAX +3
SEA @ LAR +6.5
One key thing to learn in the NFL is that no team is as good as it looks on any given week and no team is as bad as they look. Rams looked awful on Monday night, but of course now they have a chance to redeem themselves in their home opener. I don’t have to tell you that the home team has a lot of value at the current number. A key matchup advantage for the Rams is their elite D-line. That’s the team’s strength. Seattle’s weakness is their O-line, which is typically masked by Russell Wilson’s mobility. Well, this week his mobility might not be an advantage as he has an injured ankle. Reports indicate that Wilson will be much more of a pocket passer in LA. Without the typical threat of Wilson taking off, this Rams D-line can really focus on putting the press on. In any case, as bad as the Rams looked, let’s not forget that Seattle didn’t really set the world on fire either. They barely managed to win against Miami at home, needed a late comeback to do it. Last year Seattle was -3.5 @ the Rams, and that was early in the year before Gurley was healthy to play. Now they’re a full FG higher? First home game in LA for these Rams so I’d expect a very strong effort out of them. Lean: LAR +6.5
IND @ DEN -6.5
This Colts D is horrid but let’s not forget that Denver is being led by a replacement level player at QB. On the other side, Indy has a ton of weapons on offense, that even this Denver D might not be able to contain all of them. Broncos were at -5 before the season started, and now this spread crossed a key number. Hard to lay this many points with as an anemic offense as Denver’s. Lean: IND +6.5
ATL @ OAK -4.5
The Falcons looked terrible last week at home, so really not much confidence in them on the road. Oakland won a shoot-out against the Saints, but their D didn’t seem as improved as most were predicting. Maybe we’ll see them play better at home. Too many question marks for me in this game as I need to see these teams a little more. PASS
GB @ MIN +2
Vikings are opening up their new stadium in this one so the hype will be through the roof. Still, with Bradford likely to make his debut, it’s hard to back this team. I don’t think they looked good against the Titans, and were helped out by two return TD’s on defense. Packers weren’t “great” either but they do have Rodgers and based on my calculations Rodgers is >>>> than Bradford! Lean: GB -2