Rob Vinciletti
Dolphins vs. Patriots
Play: Dolphins +6½
Miami fits a solid database system today that plays on Road dogs that are off a road dog loss at +10 or more by 1-3 points as they have covered every time since 1989 vs an opponent like the Patriots that are off a road dog win. Division dogs in the first 3 weeks vs a team with revenge like the patriots have here today, are also a big play on historically. The Patriots are getting plenty of support off the big win in Arizona on sunday night. Here comes the let down. Take the points. Make it Miami.
Don Anthony
Colts vs. Broncos
Play: Over 46½
Not going to lie, I'm really mad at myself for not getting this at the key number of 45. However, I still think this game should fly over. The Indianapolis Colts have ZERO defense. They can't tackle and their secondary is atrocious. You could say that the Denver offense isn't that explosive, but they had a chance to put up a ton of points against the Panthers and the Panthers have a great defense. The Broncos turned the ball over 3 times deep in Panther territory, where at worst, took minimum 9 points off the board. Andrew Luck has even stated that they need to score more early. This team knows its going to have to outscore teams in back and forth games instead of trying to have their defense step up because it is just too banged up. I expect CJ Anderson to have a HUGE game and this will open up the passing attack.
Tony George
Cowboys vs. Redskins
Play: Redskins -2½
One thing that every average Joe does after Week 1 of the NFL, either looking at things from a fans perspective or a pointspread perspective, is overreact to what they saw in Week 1, and conclude that team A or team B is done for the year, they are gonna stink it up, and surely cannot cover a spread against anyone good. For example Arizona was as high as a 10 point favorite last week against the Pats, with no Brady, no Gronk and no starting left tackle, and yet they lose straight up to the Pats, so they must not be as good as advertised. Well, slow your roll and take a deep breath, all teams have 15 games left and nothing is decided and some surprising results in Week 2 await you.
That said, lets look at the Washington Redskins, who looked like a dog turd in a watermelon patch on Monday Night Football, as the Steelers and Big Big put on a clinic and beat them like a drum. Looks like the Kurt Cousins singing was a bust, and the Skins are headed down the river after a woeful performance. Have no illusions, the NFC East title at seasons end will go through Washington.
Dallas was busy last Sunday, doing what Dallas does best, making bonehead plays, not using the clock wisely in a tight game, late in the game, and Jason Garrett looking like a deer in the headlights as a coach with a game on the line. Same Ol Dallas, who are now 1-12 straight up their last 13 games without Tony Romo, and 10-24 their last 34 games without Romo overall. That last win without Romo was in Washington last year!
Oddsmakers have decided that Washington is not even worth of a 3 point home field advantage on Sunday and I think that is a huge mistake. Even on a short week, I have the Skins rated higher than Dallas in my power ratings, and I will add a full 3 points to home field, as you have a rookie QB and a rookie RB making their first road start in the NFL at a divisional opponent. That is no easy chore, and they are catching a Skins team in a very foul mood, and it will be a packed house with Dallas in town.
Last week Dallas's superstar WR Bryant has 1 catch for 8 yards, they did not distribute the ball all that well, and their vertical passing game was suspect at best. The offense is still pedestrian for Dak Prescott, who is a good QB but raw, and quite frankly he played better than expected last week in my opinion in spite of a limited playbook. That said the Redskins at home is not Vandy on the road in the SEC, and Washington has not forgotten that Dallas beat them last year at home without Romo, and they are looking for some payback and to avoid an 0-2 start, as returning divisional champs and a playoff team last year.
Oddsmakers know the public loves to bet Dallas and yet you do not have to even lay a field goal with America's team, the line is less than 3, and that is easy money against a team who looked unprepared on MNF, and this should be a no sweat Winner for young QB Prescott and company. I beg to differ and I say Washington gets it done by a TD here.
Jeff Hochman
Cowboys vs. Redskins
Play: Cowboys +3
The oddsmakers believe these two teams are even, thus making the Redskins 3-point home chalk. On average, home field is worth 3 points in the NFL. I think the Cowboys are a notch above the Redskins in terms of overall talent. You know about the history of these two teams. Maybe you don't. The games are normally very tight and if either team is having a "bad" season, you can be sure the other team will play it close to the best. The Redskins and Cowboys have split their last 10 regular season matchups. The Underdog has gone 7-3 ATS in those 10 games. The road team is 5-0 straight up in the previous five head-to-head meetings, including last year when these two teams split the season series for the second straight year. The Underdog is 27-9 in their last 36 meetings. That's very difficult to ignore. The average line over the past 10 meetings is Dallas minus -4.5 points. I think we are getting some value taking 3 points in a game that should come down to the wire. Turnovers are always the No. 1 key stat in the NFL and I would expect the team that commits the fewest will win this game outright. The Redskins played a physical game on MNF and now must play their bitter rival coming off a heartbreak defeat. Dallas is 13-3 ATS as underdogs in this series after a straight up loss.
Scott Spreitzer
Cowboys vs. Redskins
Play: Redskins -3
It wasn't that long ago when Cowboys' QB Dak Prescott was playing against vanilla preseason gameplans and he owned those units, completing 78% of his pass attempts. But it got real last week and while we give the young signal caller props for not throwing a pick, he did complete just 25 of 45 passes, a 56% success rate and averaged just 5.04 yards per pass. The Skins looked ugly on Monday night, no doubt about it. But I expect a bounce back here. Washington's offense owns a top-5 receiving unit and will face a porous Dallas defense with one of the worst defensive backfields. Washington has covered nine of the last 12 meetings and I believe they'll win and cover on Sunday, bouncing back off the ugly loss.
Ray Monohan
Packers vs. Vikings
Play: Packers -1½
The Packers head into Minnesota looking for some revenge from last season. This is a nice spot and price to back the Packers.
Green Bay got all they could handle last week against Jacksonville, but once again proved Aaron Rodgers is a big time player. Rodgers and company held off a late rush to go to 1-0.
Minnesota is in turmoil right now. Adrian Peterson had a horrible Week 1 and now Sam Bradford is expected to start. His chemistry with the rest of the offense is a major question mark here.
Some trends to note. Packers are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games in September. Packers are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 road games.
After dropping the division to the Vikings last season, this is a perfect spot for Green Bay to take advantage of the Minnesota sketchy offense.
Marc Lawrence
Saints vs. Giants
Play: Saints +5
Edges - Saints: QB Drew Brees 5-1 SU and 4-1-1 ATS in the Giants. and 5-1 ATS as road dogs off a non-division game before playing a Monday night game. Giants: 0-4 ATS in home openers, and 2-9 ATS after facing Dallas when foe is off SU favorite loss, including 0-6 ATS at home. With the Saints off a season opening loss in which they won the stats, and the Giants off a season opening win in which they lost the stats, we recommend a 1* play on New Orleans.
Joseph D'Amico
Colts vs. Broncos
Play: Broncos -6
Indianapolis' defense has quite a few question marks on both their DL and their secondary. Matthew Stafford, with very little supporting cast, burned the Colts for 340 YP and 3 TD's, with 0 INT's. With the Bronco's having extra time to prep here, for this specific Colts scheme, Andrew Luck is in trouble. On the flipside, Trevor Siemian will go uncontested by a non-existent pass-rush and exploit newbie's and over-the-hillers in the secondary. Indianapolis is 0-4 ATS their L4 games played in September while Denver is 3-0-1 ATS their L4 games played overall.
Jack Jones
Green Bay Packers -2
I know the Vikings have been one of the most improved teams in the NFL under Mike Zimmer, and I have a ton of respect for them, but I just trust Aaron Rodgers and the Packers more in this spot. They are only favored by two points, which I believe to be a discount.
Rodgers has his full complement of weapons this season as Jordy Nelson is back from injury. He pairs with Randall Cobb and Devante Adams on the outside, giving the Packers one of the best sets of receivers in the league. The offensive line is mostly healthy, which is key, and the Packers are off to a good start offensively by scoring 27 points against Jacksonville last week.
But one of the most impressive stats from that 27-23 win over the Jaguars was the Packers’ ability to stop the run. They only gave up 48 rushing yards on 26 carries, or an average of 1.8 yards per carry. Stopping the run is going to be key against the Vikings and Adrian Peterson this week.
Minnesota was fortunate to beat Tennessee 25-16 on the road. It needed two defensive touchdowns in the second half to get the win after trailing 10-0 at halftime, and you certainly cannot rely on that every week. The Titans held the Vikings to just 65 rushing yards on 28 carries, or an average of 2.3 per carry. Adrian Peterson went for 31 yards on 19 carries.
I simply believe the Vikings are going to be too predictable on offense this season with Sam Bradford and/or Shaun Hill at the helm. Teams will stack the box to stop AP, just like Green Bay will this week, and the Vikings don’t have the QB or the weapons to consistently beat teams through the air. They miss Teddy Bridgewater's escapeability more than anything.
The Vikings do have one of the better defenses in the league, but they certainly were vulnerable against the Titans last week. They gave up 316 total yards and were outgained by 15 yards in the game. Marcus Mariota torched them for 271 passing yards and two touchdowns with one interception. So, Rodgers should have a big day here as well.
One of the reasons the Vikings struggled against the pass is because they were without their top cover corner in Xavier Rhodes, who is one of the most underrated players in the league at his position. He is doubtful to return this week with a knee injury. Also, a pair of key linemen are doubtful in OT Matt Kalil and DT Sharrif Floyd.
Minnesota is 4-14 ATS in its last 18 home games after a game with a turnover margin of +3 or better. The Packers do not turn the ball over and won’t be making the same mistakes as the Titans last week. The Packers are 38-16-2 ATS in their last 56 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game. Green Bay is 41-20 ATS in its last 61 vs. NFC North foes. The Packers are 6-1 ATS in their last seven road games.
Bryan Power
Colts vs. Broncos
Play: Colts
Here's a trend for you: The Colts have covered NINE straight times when playing the Broncos! They have won eight of the nine games straight up as well. The ATS record is a perfect 4-0 in the "Andrew Luck era" and the last two wins were quite memorable. One was a 24-13 playoff victory in Denver (2015 Divisional Round) and then last year saw Indy hand the Broncos their first loss of the regular season (Week 9), 27-24 as four-point home dogs. Luck has a history of playing well against this Denver defense and I think he'll perform well enough here to at least keep his team within the number - for a 10th straight time!
Denver was a nice winner for me on Opening Night as they did not allow Carolina to avenge Super Bowl 50. Instead, it was the Broncos winning again, 21-20, this time as three-point home dogs. Truth be told, it was a game the Broncos had no business winning as they turned the ball over three times and Carolina missed a GW FG attempt. With the win, it seems as if QB Trevor Siemian is getting a little bit "too much pub" from where I sit. I'm going to stick to my guns with the Broncos (who I predicted would regress severely in 2016) as I think they've gone from undervalued (in Week 1) to overvalued here.
Luck threw for almost 400 yards in Week 1 (4 TDs), but it was not enough as the Colts fell at home to the Lions, 39-35. They were three-point favorites in that contest. While I question the supporting cast around Luck, what is not up for debate is the QB's incredible ATS record as an underdog. He is 16-10 ATS all-time taking points and this looks to be a generous number given where both teams were priced for their respective Week 1 matchups. Note that Denver has covered only two of the last seven times that they have been favored by 3.5 to 7 pts at home. My recommendation is to take the points here.
Bill Biles
Ravens vs. Browns
Play: Browns
To me the better option at QB for the Browns is McCown. McCown gets another opportunity to prove he is a starting caliber QB. Josh will get the TE more involved in the offense and the Browns will look better. I think this game is much closer than the experts think. Take the Browns and the points in this one.
Dave Price
Dallas Cowboys +3
The Dallas Cowboys have been an awful bet at home, but for whatever reason they seem to bring it on the road. They should have beaten the Giants last week as they outgained them but had to settle for 4 field goals. I look for them to bounce back in Week 2 against a Washington Redskins team that was blasted 38-16 by Pittsburgh, and now they are on a short week after playing on Monday night. Home-field advantage has been a bad thing in this series as the road team is 5-0 SU in the last 5 meetings. The underdog is 27-9 ATS in the last 36 meetings. The Redskins are 8-25-2 ATS in their last 35 home games vs. a team with a losing record. Washington is 13-29 ATS in its last 42 September home games. The Redskins are 37-65 ATS in their last 102 games as a home favorite.
Teddy Covers
Panthers -13½
Remember back to Week 1 of the 2015 NFL season. The San Francisco 49ers blew out the Minnesota Vikings on Monday Night Football; a dominating 20-3 victory. The Vikings defense got abused by San Fran’s ground game while their own offense went a combined 1-10 on third and fourth downs; unable to generate anything.
The 49ers followed their national TV blowout win by losing their next three games by a combined margin of 107-28. Their Week 1 win was completely fraudulent, not indicative of the team that they actually were.
So, here we are in Week 2 of the 2016 NFL season. San Fran is coming off a dominating 28-0 blowout win on Monday Night Football against the Rams. And, by pricing this game at less than two touchdowns, the betting markets are making a statement that the Niners Week 1 win was a meaningful indicator of how the rest of their season is likely to go. I’m not buying that one iota. The Rams just stunk up the joint on Monday Night, far more than the 49ers played dominant football. And I’m certainly not expecting Carolina to stink up the joint this week!
San Fran is in a classic bad spot – a West Coast team travelling East for an early start game. It gets worse – they’re on a short week, having played Monday Night. And it gets even worse, because they Niners are ‘fat and happy’ while the defending NFC Champs are anything but.
While the Niners are on a short week, the Panthers have been stewing for the past ten days following their ‘missed field goal’ loss to the Broncos on the opening Thursday of the season. Head coach Ron Rivera was not amused that the NFC champs had to open on the road against the defending Super Bowl winner, and his team was not amused by their poor play in the opener. We’ve got San Fran fat & happy, and we’ve got Carolina coming into this game with a legitimate chip on their collective shoulders; hungry, angry and talented. That’s a recipe for a blowout if I’ve ever heard one!
Carolina has covered their last six games on this field, four of them blowouts by 28 points or more and three of them coming against playoff teams (Seattle, Arizona and Washington). Their offense is BETTER than it was last year, primed to generate explosive plays on a regular basis. Expect a comfortable victory by the home team, by two TD’s or more!
ASA
Bengals vs. Steelers
Play: Bengals +3½
The road team has actually won 4 of the last 5 in this AFC North rivalry and we give the Bengals a great shot to win this one. Cincy went into New York and beat the Jets which became even more impressive after watching the flyboys dominate Buffalo on the road Thursday night (game was not as close as the final score indicated). The Steelers also got a win (we were on them) but beating a Washington team that didn’t beat a single team with a winning record last year was not as impressive. However, with that game being on Monday Night and the entire country watching, people will definitely head to the windows to jump on Pitt. That’s why this line is higher than it should be. Last year the Steelers were a pick-em at home vs Bengals (Cincy won). This number (currently -3.5) is the highest it’s been for Pitt as a favorite vs Cincy since 2011. That doesn’t equate as the Bengals are just as good, if not better, than they have been in recent years. Also a little extra juice is added to this game as Cincy blew a lead in last year’s playoff and gave the Steelers a win with some a few boneheaded hits that led to personal fouls. Bengal QB Andy Dalton didn’t play in that game due to injury but when he’s the starter, the Bengals are 11-2 their last 13 games overall. This one stays tight and we like Cincinnati and the points.
Chip Chirimbes
Titans vs. Lions
Play: Titans +6
Detroit quarterback Matthew Stafford looks like a different player this season without wideout Calvin Johnson as he completed passes to eight different receivers against the Colts in Game 1. The Titans expected one-two running punch with DeMarco Murray and Derrick Henry didn't live up to expectations gains just 45 yards between them. The Titans are 7-2 ATS in their last nine road openers while the Lions are 1-10 straight-up against AFC South opponents and 6-15 ATS before Green Bay.