Chase Diamond
Bengals vs. Steelers
Play: Bengals +3
This game features the 1-0 Bengals and the 1-0 Steelers. Last 3 games were won by the road team here and getting 3.5 here is a gift as this game normally comes down to a field goal either way. 5-1 ATS as dogs in the first of back-to-back revenge games. 12-1-1 ATS as a road dog off a win before Game 12 of the season.
Jimmy Boyd
Cardinals -7
I have to lean on Arizona to win and cover at home in this spot. Losing to the Patriots at home without Brady or Gronkowski just doesn’t look good. It’s going to be hard for the betting public to back Arizona after that performance at this price. Especially with how well Tampa Bay looked in their opener against the Falcons.
As bad as it might look, you can’t overreact to a loss to New England, even with the circumstances. The Patriots are one of the best coached teams in the league. It’s tough to beat Belichick when he has that much time to prepare, regardless of who is on the field. Even more so when he can play the underdog role to his team.
Keep in mind that this line prior to the season was the Cardinals -9. That’s a huge adjustment and I don’t think it’s warranted. Arizona is going to come out pissed off in this game, as they don’t want to fall to 0-2.
One thing the Patriots did in that game last week was take away the deep pass. Something Arizona’s offense is built around. I don’t trust the Bucs defense to be as disciplined. Tampa allowed Matt Ryan to throw for 334 yards and 2 scores on 27 of 39 passing in Week 1.
I also think we are going to see a much better game here from the Arizona defense. Jameis Winston looked great last week, but that was against an average at best Atlanta defense. The Cardinals feature one of the best secondaries in the league. I think he struggles here and without him playing great it will be tough for them to keep pace.
It’s also worth noting that Arizona has been money in this situation. The Cardinals are 21-8 ATS in their last 29 home games off a home loss. They have also been great against the number after playing a team from the AFC. The Cardinals are 10-2 under Arians after a non-conference matchup.
The Bucs haven’t exactly responded well with success of late. Tampa Bay is just 2-6 ATS in their last 8 after a straight up win. They are also just 3-10 ATS in their last 13 after covering their last contest.
Matt Fargo
Dallas vs. Washington
Pick: Dallas
The Redskins did not come out very strong against the Steelers in their season opener as they lost by 22 points but did play better than that score indicates. They were outgained by just 53 yards but two turnovers in bad spots, nine penalties and having to settle for field goals did them in. DeAngelo Williams torched Washington on the ground so you can be sure that Dallas took note of that and will try and pound the ball. Dak Prescott was average in his NFL opener and the Redskins will try and make him beat them in his first road start but he should be more comfortable in his second start against a much worse defense. The Dallas defense was unable to put a ton of pressure on Eli Manning which hurt an already average secondary and Kirk Cousins, while he made a few mistakes, was pretty sharp in his ability to get the ball down field. But the jury is still out on him as mistakes will continue to hurt him. Washington obviously needs more balance as it ran only 12 times against Pittsburgh and that again would be a recipe for disaster against the Cowboys. This line has crept up to -3 in most places which is where it needs to be in a divisional game so while there is no line value, the matchup is the key here. Dallas falls into a phenomenal situation as we play against Home favorites that allowed 24 or more ppg last season, after a playing a game where 50 total points or more were scored. This situation is 28-3 ATS (90.3 percent) since 1983.
Jim Feist
Green Bay at Minnesota
Pick Sacks Under 5.5
This is a high sack total for an NFL prop bet. Minnesota has the better defensive front but had only 2 sacks against mobile young QB Marcus Mariota last week. Now they face mobile veteran QB Aaron Rodgers, who was sacked just once last week. The Green Bay defensive line is average, getting 3 sacks last week but that was against the young, weak Jacksonville offensive line that had QB Blake Bortles throwing 39 times. Now they face a strong Vikings line that looks to run the football first. Minnesota threw the football 33 times last week and QB Shaun Hill was not sacked once.
Randall the Handle
Best Bets
Buccaneers (1-0) at Cardinals (0-1)
The Cardinals are 9½-point favourites over the Patriots, but are spotting less than a converted touchdown against the Bucs? Yes, Tampa is off to a good start after defeating the Falcons 31-24 last week, led by sophomore QB Jameis Winston’s four-touchdown performance. However, let’s be reminded that this was a 6-10 Buccaneers team that had a minus-75 in scoring differential a year ago playing a less than stellar Falcons team, a divisional club the Buccaneers have now defeated in three straight. Not only will this be a step up in class, it will be Tampa’s second road game in as many weeks while the Cardinals will host again after dropping a nail-biter to the mighty Pats. Arizona is a top NFC team, 13-3 a year ago with a plus-176 point differential who rarely loses on this field. More importantly, the Bucs won’t have a soft offensive line to penetrate like they did in Atlanta as only three teams in the NFL gave up fewer sacks than the Cardinals allowed last year. TAKING: CARDINALS -6½
Falcons (0-1) at Raiders (1-0)
The Raiders have been favoured four times over the past two years. Their only cover in that span was when they were a one-point choice over the lowly Titans. So while they are a sexy, trendy team for this 2016 season, giving away a bunch of points here against a capable visitor cannot be recommended. Oakland’s defence, or lack thereof, surrendered 434 yards and four aerial TDs to Atlanta’s division rival New Orleans last week. Falcons QB Matt Ryan may not put up Drew Brees numbers but Matty Ice threw for more than 330 yards and a pair of majors against a better Bucs defense than what the Raiders offer. Atlanta’s passing attack should inflict enough damage to make this host have to work very hard to win by the required margin. Not to take anything away from Oakland’s exciting 35-34 win a week ago, that game required a huge and exhausting comeback against the most horrid defence in the land. Sell high, buy low applies to this one. TAKING: FALCONS +5
Saints (0-1) at Giants (1-0)
Giants may be experiencing a false sense of security after holding off rival Cowboys 20-19 last week. At that, we laugh. Facing Dallas’ rookie backfield combo of Dak Prescott and Ezekiel Elliot in their first pro game is a monumental difference than facing Drew Brees and his high-octane offence. We only have to look back to last November when these two squared off in the Superdome, resulting in one of the craziest shootouts in modern NFL history as Brees threw for more than 500 yards and seven touchdowns en route to a 52-49 win. While Eli Manning had a monster day of his own, his G-Men are being asked to give away points here and only the football gods know at this stage how many points will be needed to win and cover here. What we can bank on is that a substantial amount of scores will be required and with Sean Payton’s team facing a dubious 0-2 start, we’d rather roll the dice with the known commodity and the handicap being offered. TAKING: SAINTS +4½
THE REST
Titans (0-1) at Lions (1-0)
Have to like what we’re seeing out of Motown these days as Lions on a 7-2 roll since last season and QB Matthew Stafford is playing with a renewed enthusiasm under Jim Bob Cooter. Detroit has no laurels to rest upon and figure to be going full throttle each game. The Titans are in full rebuild and every game is a tryout for those still on the team. Said to have been focusing on a strong ground game, last week’s 25-16 home loss to Minnesota showed nothing to support such claims with DeMarco Murray and Derrick Henry rushing for a combined 45 yards on 18 carries. Without playmakers in the passing game, a problem exists. Leos were 3-0-1 as chalk when hosting last year. TAKING: LIONS –6
Chiefs (1-0) at Texans (1-0)
Texans will need a huge effort to reverse fortunes of an embarrassing 30-0 playoff thumping at the hands of these Chiefs this past January. The off-season acquisition of QB Brock Osweiler is supposed to help as Houston was void of a quarterback last season but the jury is still out on the young quarterback as he gets only his eighth career start and second for his new team. The Chiefs had to climb a mountain in their 2016 debut, pulling off a huge comeback win over the Chargers. Can’t see a team getting away on them again this week and while we like Houston’s personnel, not anxious to be giving away points to a superior squad. We’ll take what we can get. TAKING: CHIEFS +2½
Dolphins (0-1) at Patriots (1-0)
The Dolphins put up a fight in a 12-10 loss up in Seattle last week. And while it might be a moral victory, it is a loss just the same. Now they’ll fly all the way back to the toughest venue on the east coast when they head to the graveyard they know as Gillette Stadium. While we could provide data on Miami’s troubles on this field, much of it is based on facing Tom Brady. But as we all know: Brady is suspended. Still, the system works as New England proved in Arizona last week. With the Fish having terrible deficiencies in both their secondary and running game, the reduced line is a bargain and one we will take full advantage of. TAKING: PATRIOTS -6½
Ravens (1-0) at Browns (0-1)
The Browns are a hard sell. People work too hard for their money to risk it on this dreadful team. They are the football version of Murphy’s Law. The only people this team scares is its fans. You get the point. Thing is, Bookmakers don’t simply give money away and because the Brownies are so unappealing to the betting public, the bookies are forced to inflate their lines, an aversion tax if you will, in order to draw some money on them. The Ravens are the better team, but clubs focus on division teams most and taking a full touchdown at home within this AFC North division is the prudent way to go, no matter how repugnant it may feel. TAKING: BROWNS +7
Bengals (1-0) at Steelers (1-0)
Easily, the best game of the week as this has become the NFL’s best rivalry. The Bengals will be seeking to avenge the most horrific loss imaginable when a fumble and two major penalties allowed the Steelers to kick a game-winning field goal with 14 seconds to play in last year’s playoffs. Cincy was missing QB Andy Dalton for that one, but he will be at the helm on this day and that will make a huge difference as his team is 11-2 when Dalton is able to start and finish a game. The Steelers were able to mask their issues in a win over clumsy Washington, but with a bunch of first stringers missing from their lineup, those absences will become a bigger issue. Any points offered in this series are worth accepting. TAKING: BENGALS +3½
Cowboys (0-1) at Redskins (0-1)
An added urgency here as the dreaded 0-2 staring both clubs in the face but not sure the Cowboys are able to respond. Without star QB Tony Romo, Dallas is obviously not the same. After a strong pre-season, QB Dak Prescott received a dose of reality when he managed a pedestrian 227 yards passing without a touchdown in his team’s home loss to the Giants. Rookie RB Ezekiel Elliott suffered a similar fate with just 51 yards on 20 carries. Now, with a weak secondary, a minimal pass rush and Prescott playing his first road game, things are not about to get any easier for the ’Boys. Washington was viewed by all on Monday night and a lacklustre performance has lowered this price, which suits us just fine. TAKING: REDSKINS -2½
49ers (1-0) at Panthers (0-1)
We basically know what we get with the Panthers. We also know they’ll be ferociously looking to get back in to the win column after dropping their past two meaningful games, both to the Broncos. This is a lesser opponent and one that Carolina should handle. However, spotting two touchdowns in this league is always a risky proposition and with the Niners arriving here off a 28-0 shutout of a division foe and with a new coach and fresh personnel, do we really know what the 49ers are? Pre-season reports called for San Fran to be a doormat but there is defensive talent and Chip Kelly has shown that he can ignite an offence. Carolina should win but generous pointspread brings them close enough together for our purposes. TAKING: 49ERS +13½
Colts (0-1) at Broncos (1-0)
Emotion plays an immeasurable role in winning and losing games. We catch Denver in a vulnerable spot here as its past two games were a Super Bowl victory in February followed by a rematch win in the league’s grandioso season opener. Not only do we expect to catch them flatfooted here, the Broncos are being asked to spot significant points with a seventh-round quarterback making just his second career start. Trevor Siemian had a winning debut, but it was a less than impressive outing with just 178 yards passing, one touchdown and two interceptions. The Colts came up short after a comeback try versus Detroit with Andrew Luck throwing for 385 yards and four majors. Luck enters this one with a 14-7 against the spread mark as the underdog. TAKING: COLTS +6
Jaguars (0-1) at Chargers (0-1)
The Jags gave the superior Packers all they wanted before dropping a close decision while the Chargers blew a 21-point third-quarter lead only to lose in overtime. It was no coincidence that San Diego’s offence changed dramatically when WR Keenan Allen was injured and unable to return. Allen will now miss the 2016 season and that is a huge blow to the Bolts. This opponent is more the Jaguars’ speed for what might be an ascending team and the return of RB Chris Ivory should help after T.J. Yeldon was only to generate 39 yards rushing last week on 21 attempts. We would prefer San Diego in the underdog role as it has only covered four of past 12 when giving away points. TAKING: JAGUARS +3
Packers (1-0) at Vikings (1-0)
Maybe a healthy Green Bay team is the better squad, but this game is a huge deal for Minnesota. This Sunday night prime-timer goes in Minnesota’s new indoor stadium and the atmosphere figures to be electric. While the hometown edge is just one component, it’s never a bad thing to be taking home points in this long-standing rivalry, especially when having Minny’s strong defence going for you. Let’s also not forget that it’s the Vikes that are the defending NFC North champions, not the visiting Pack. While it hasn’t officially been announced, it appears Sam Bradford will guide Minnesota, being a notable upgrade from journeyman Shaun Hill. Packers on road for second time in two weeks and top WR Jordy Nelson still finding his legs. TAKING: VIKINGS +2½
Eagles (1-0) at Bears (0-1)
The Bears offensive line couldn’t block Gilbert Gottfried. That was evident in their loss to the Texans last week when Jay Cutler was sacked five times and pressured numerous others. Sure, the Eagles’ win over the awful Browns doesn’t register high on the scale but a win is a win and QB Carson Wentz appeared poised and confident in the victory. Philadelphia made a good hire in DC Jim Schwartz and with a strong defensive line to work with, Cutler and his Bears could be in for another long afternoon. Chicago has not performed well on their own field with just one cover here last year, including a 0-2 mark straight up and versus number both times favoured at Soldier Field. TAKING: EAGLES +3
DAVE COKIN
JAGUARS AT CHARGERS
PLAY: JAGUARS +3
Tough opening week results for both the Jaguars and Chargers. Each was a close game loser. But I have to think the similarity ends right there.
Jacksonville came up short against the Packers, but they did lots of good things in that game and should be encouraged even though they’re sitting 0-1.
I’m not sure the same atmosphere prevails for San Diego. The Chargers blew a 24-3 lead and also lost their best receiver in the process, as Keenan Allen was lost for the season with the dreaded ACL tear. Top pick Joey Bosa is now on the actibve roster, but he’s not ready to play yet and is unlikely to make his debut in this game.
The one big positive out of last week’s game was a breakout of sorts by RB Melvin Gordon. But all in all, this was a terrible loss on every level for the Chargers. For a team that had Murphy’s Law chasing them around throughout 2015, I can’t think of a worse way to get a new campaign underway.
The Jaguars look like the better team to me, and there’s also a nice road dog angle that applies to this game. I wouid expect this to be a competitive battle, but I definitely like the idea of grabbing a field goal with the Jaguars.
Bruce Marshall
Bengals / Steelers Over 48.5
Pittsburgh still minus key RB Le'Veon Bell (suspended first 3), though DeAngelo Willaims' big night on Monday vs. the Skins suggests Steelers not hurting at RB spot. Pittsburgh lost its only game last year vs. Cincy that QB Andy Dalton started, and finished, for the Bengals. With Dalton, Cincy is now 11-2 SU back to last season. Added motivation for Bengals beyond the usual AFC North hate after the bizarre meltdown at the end of their bitter playoff loss last January. Dalton and Big Ben have engaged in at least one shootout per year in their careers, and Steelers have at times trended "over" at Heinz Field when dynamics resemble those of this week.
Mike Lundin
Falcons vs. Raiders
Play: Falcons +4½
The Oakland Raiders are coming off a dramatic 35-34 win at New Orleans in their season opener. David Carr hit Seth Roberts for a 10-yard touchdown with 47 seconds left, then connected with Michael Crabtree on a 2-point conversion to steal the win.
They'll host an Atlanta Falcons team looking to bounce back from a 31-24 loss to Tampa Bay, and I'm taking the points on the Falcons in this contest.
I simply think we're seeing an overreaction to last week's results in this line, and Atlanta was not all that bad. Matt Ryan threw for 334 yards and two scores against the Bucs and I expect a big game from the Falcons D after allowing Jameis Winston to throw for 281 yards last week. Oakland surrendered 507 total yards against New Orleans so the Falcons should be able to put plenty of points on the board, and the Raiders offense might struggle to bail them out today.
Frank Jordan
Jacksonville Jaguars vs. San Diego Chargers
Play: Jacksonville Jaguars +3
This is a battle between East vs. West as far as nice weather and at times good football teams. Jacksonville tried a comeback late against the Packers, but fell at home 27-23 while San Diego had a monster lead at Kansas City and lost in overtime 33-27 after giving up 17 points in the fourth quarter. Rivers threw for nearly 70% completion percentage on 25 of 36, but had just 243 yards and a single TD pass as the Chargers had a 21-3 lead at halftime and were outscored 30-6 in the second half and overtime. Blake Bortles had a good game against the Packers throwing for over 300 yards and a TD pass and was over 60% completions. In this one look for Bortles to go on the road a pick up a big win as he outplays Rivers in a tight match up 28-24.
SPORTS WAGERS
CLEVELAND +6 over Baltimore
We have the ability to break this one down with X’s and O’s, game strategies, strengths and weaknesses of both squads and the intangibles that go into every NFL game played. We’re not going to do that because it means nothing. Over and over we stress value and in terms of overreactions to Week 1 results, this is the biggest overreaction of them all, which unfortunately forces us to take a stand. We’re not unlike everyone else in that we too, find it hard to pull the trigger on the Brownies but it must be done because of said overreaction. Before we get to the overreaction on the Browns, let’s discuss the Ravens first.
The Ravens had one 66-yard touchdown catch in the second quarter last week against Buffalo to prevent that game from setting records for futility. If you watched Ryan Fitzpatrick carve up the Bills on Thursday, Baltimore’s performance against the Bills suddenly looks a whole lot worse. So, while the Jets were racking up 36 points and it could have easily been more, Baltimore was lucky to rack up 13 on the Bills and that game was in Baltimore. Joe Flacco was also sacked four times by a Buffalo team that did not sack the QB more than twice in any game last year. Now the Ravens travel to play a team that was humiliated.
All the hate that this market had for the Eagles last week has been switched over to the Brownies. Not even its own fans in Cleveland can stomach much more of this. The Earthtones have become so unappealing and so difficult to bet on that the odds makers are forced to inflate points on teams playing them. That’s where we step in. Cleveland goes from a 3½-point dog ON THE ROAD, to a 6 or 6½-point dog at HOME in the span of one week. We cannot over-emphasize the lunacy of the difference between last week’s line and this week’s line. Yeah, the Brownies lost RG3 but that does not matter. If RG3 was playing, this line would be exactly the same because RG3 was the QB that couldn’t move this offense five yards last week. Taking this many points at home with Cleveland against this below average traveler within this AFC North division is the only way to approach this game no matter how objectionable it may feel. HUGE overlay.
DENVER -6 over Indianapolis
The Colts lost a shootout with the Lions but what stood out most is that they still do not have a defense. What happens when the Colts aren’t able to put up 30 points or more is that they are likely going to lose by 14 or more. The Colts lead the NFL in “we do it differently here; we do it the right way” sports sanctimony. This is probably why the Colts ended up complaining about those deflated balls to begin with. Sure, they got a hole charred in their asses against New England, but they lost with honour. Playing for the Colts means playing for a shithole of a team and holding your head high about it. In the city itself, there are Jesus billboards EVERYWHERE. As a city, Indianapolis consists of 10 nice blocks surrounded by an ocean of crap. The best town in Indiana is Pawnee, which does not actually exist. So, to recap, Indy got beat by 30+ points and they blame a barely deflated ball. GM Ryan Grigson looks like a sleaze-ball and Jim Irsay is a sleaze-ball. Andrew Luck is alright but Grigson and Pagano have no idea how to build a respectable defense and the offensive line is a sieve.
The Broncos are the complete opposite. Denver’s defense remains ferocious. One week into the non-Manning era and everything is just fine. In fact, it’s better. The Broncos are 1-0 having faced the other best team from 2015 that really, really wanted to win that game. The defense played very well again though there was some questions about how many times Cam Newton's head was cracked versus the number of called penalties. In the end, Denver faced a really motivated and talented team and beat them again. Trevor Siemian threw two interceptions - one just a bad under throw and the other a batted pass but for a quarterback who had never started and that was facing a fierce defense, he was at least adequate. Maybe better. Now he and the Broncs take a big step down in class here and Denver would like nothing more than to get its rookie QB a big win to boost his confidence even more. Frankly, they could not have hand-picked a riper team than the Colts.
WASHINGTON -3 over Dallas
Once again we have to play against the overreaction to a prime time game. With the Redskins' dismal Monday night performance fresh in their minds, this market will have a tough time shaking it off. Having followed this league for 45 years, we know better than to put a lot of emphasis on Week 1.
Speaking of Week 1, Dallas lost its opener in painful fashion and that it was even close was mostly a testament to the defense. We were once again reminded that Dallas can't win games without Tony Romo. Despite throwing 45 times, Zak Prescott completed just 25 passes and the ‘Boys only scored 19 points. That was at home and it was against a very beatable team in the New York Giants. The slant again this week is the Cowboys starting a rookie quarterback, this time on the road, and hoping that their defense again plays over their heads. We wouldn't count on that.
An embarrassing loss often prompts a big response and that is likely what we’ll see from Washington this week. We discussed at length Washington’s management last week, specifically Scot McCloughan, who will not accept a loss like that lightly. McCloughan teams' (Seattle and San Fran when they were both elite) pride themselves on hard work, toughness, heart and commitment. We saw none of that on Monday but now that the nerves are gone and the spotlight is off, the ‘Skins figure to be 100% better. Aside from that, it wasn’t even that bad. Kirk Cousins, despite being off his game, threw for 329 yards. The ‘Skins also took nine penalties and were in the Steelers red-zone four times but only scored once! The Redskins outstanding receivers, its solid defense and solid offensive and defensive lines were completely overshadowed by the final score last week. We’ll look to take advantage of that this week in what we’re calling the most undervalued favorite of the week.
Tennessee +6 over DETROIT
The Titans come off a home loss to the Vikings mostly because they gave up two touchdowns off turnovers. The Lions are fresh from their shootout win in Indianapolis. The Titans offense still doesn't look even average and the Lions did not need Calvin Johnson last week when they posted 39 points. If we go by what we saw last week, the Motor City Lions would obviously be the right choice but a deeper looks says not so fast.
The Titans faced an extremely tough Vikings defense that prides itself on that side of the ball. Tennessee was still able to dominate the first half and take a 10-0 lead into the break before the errors occurred. The Titans defense held the Vikes offense to six FG attempts despite Minnesota having good field position all game. Tennessee’s defense held Adrian Peterson to a mere 31 yards on 19 carries, Tennessee was also able to throw for 252 yards on Minnesota and will take a big step down in class when facing the Lions defense. Marcus Mariota has been solid on the road with 10 TD passes to just once interception. The Titans shot themselves in the foot over and over but figure to be sharper here.
By contrast, the Lions played perhaps the worst defensive team in the NFL and needed a drive with under a minute to go to kick the winning FG. Secondly, the Lions are a much better bunch to back when taking points and not expected to win. Put them in the role of the favorite and “expected to win” and everything changes. Detroit was favored just three times all of last year and the biggest margin they were favored was -3 over Jacksonville, a game Detroit won 42-39 (push). They lost the other two as a 2½-point choice and -1 point choice respectively. In fact, you would have to go back to November of 2013 to find the last time the Lions were favored by more than they are this week. On November 10/2013, Detroit was an 11½-point choice over Jacksonville and lost outright. While those games have no impact on the outcome of this one, it does point out the risks involve in spotting points with a team as erratic and unestablished as the Lions are. One victory against a bunch of dregs has the Lions overpriced here and we’re more than happy to react.
Kansas City +113 over HOUSTON
The obsession with the Houston Texans is one that we just do not understand. They were a popular pick to win the AFC South and a few national shows actually liked what they saw from the Texans in Week 1. We could not disagree more. The Texans were fortunate to escape with a win over the Bears and if not for Chicago's constant blunders, the box score may have been much different. Hell, the Bears were still in a position to win despite their best efforts, as they took a one-point lead into the fourth quarter. Houston spent a fortune to bring Brock Osweiler in from Denver and he did not impress in his debut. Osweiler was a very average 22-35 for 231 yards, two touchdowns and an interception. That was nearly an identical line to that of Jay Cutler but Cutler is the one getting roasted this week because the only thing that matters is wins and losses. The Texans are not on the verge of becoming an AFC power. They are an overrated team that we will continue to attack when warranted and it is absolutely warranted here.
Meanwhile, this market saw the Chiefs fall behind 24-3 to San Diego last week and probably switched channels at that point. Kansas City also trailed 27-10 going to the fourth quarter, which made the comeback even more improbable. A never quit attitude is something that can carry a team a long way. An opening day victory like that can also carry over for a long time. The absence of Jamaal Charles was never felt with Spencer Ware doing a tremendous impression of him. Alex Smith passed for 363 yards and two scores - his second best yardage game ever. Going down three touchdowns to the Chargers is a poor way to make a first impression and those that backed K.C. last week may not be so eager here. We are. Furthermore, The Texans also have a big Thursday night game next week at New England so this becomes a difficult spot for them. Houston rarely gets to play on national television and a prime time game against the Pats may have them looking ahead on a short week. But let’s forget all that on focus for a second on a game the Texans played very recently. That was just two games ago in last year’s playoffs when Houston lost to Kansas City 30-0. Not that much has changed. Keep the points. Chiefs outright is our call.
Jimmy Moore
Dallas Cowboys +2.5
The Redskins offense is just pathetic with Cousins at QB (or should I say Checkdown Charlie). He can't fit any ball into any windows and won't take any chances so the 'Boys will have no trouble defending him. Washington has only covered 6 of their last 20 home openers and they are on a short week having opened up the season on Monday Night Football. Look for the Cowboys to be better this week with their young QB now having a game under his belt.
David Banks
Green Bay @ Minnesota
Pick: Green Bay -1.5
The Vikings will welcome NFC North rival Green Bay on Sunday night as they officially open U.S. Bank Stadium. The big concern for Minnesota head coach Mike Zimmer is his offense. Led by Shaun Hill last week against Tennessee, the Vikings offense produced exactly zero touchdowns. Good thing for Zimmer that his defense, one of the league’s best, scored twice.
The Vikings running game, usually solid, produced just 65 yards last week. Reigning NFL rushing champ Adrian Peterson managed just 31 yards on 19 carries. The fact that the Titans repeatedly had eight, nine, and sometimes ten players very close to the line of scrimmage had a lot to do with the Vikings’ struggles. Whoever starts at quarterback for Minnesota is going to have to do something in the passing game.
Hill didn’t make many mistakes; he didn’t throw a pick nor was he sacked. He was 18-for-33, but the 15-year veteran didn’t really make the Vikings passing game a threat and the Titans knew it. Green Bay may do the same and the Packers are just as talented on defense, if not more than Tennessee.
Green Bay has beaten the Vikings the last two times the teams have met in Minnesota. The Vikings won the last meeting between the two teams back in January, a 20-13 victory at Lambeau Field. It’s a big game for both teams as the winner moves to 2-0 and will have a win in the division. The Packers have lost just twice in the past 13 meetings between the two rivals.
Jeff Benton
Your Sunday freebie is the underdog Saints to cover the spread at MetLife Stadium against the Giants.
Both teams involved in nailbiters last week, as New Orleans got beat by a 2-point coversion by Oakland, 35-34, while New York survived a 20-19 decision at Dallas.
I think taking the points is the way to go here, as the Giants have certainly shown that they like to play them close lately, as we all well remember how they blew 5 fouth quarter leads last season, and nearly blew another last Sunday!
Drew Brees did pass for over 400 yards in last week's loss to Oakland, and the Giants are working in a new defense that did allow rookie Dak Prescott to keep things tight last week against the Cowboys.
The Saints have gone 7-3-1 against the spread in the underdog role their last 11, and are getting just enough today to make things interesting.
Take New Orleans plus the points.
2* NEW ORLEANS
Brad Wilton
Sunday comp play will be to lay the big wood with the Carolina Panthers who last played - and lost at the wire - in their opening Thursday night game at Denver.
San Francisco surprised a lot with a 28-0 home win on Monday night, but now they must make the trip east for a 1:00 pm start, and do so on short rest. The Niners are not playing the lowly Rams this time, and the Panthers have had plenty of time to regroup for this home opener.
The 49ers were just 2-6 against the spread on the road last season, while the Panthers collected the spread win in 6 of their 8 home dates a season ago.
Cam Newton took a licking in Denver, expect the refs to treat him with kid gloves today, and expect the Panthers to put a beat down on the west to east traveling Niners whose body clocks will make it feel like a morning game for them.
This one could be the biggest blowout on the Sunday card.
Carolina to demolish San Francisco.
4* CAROLINA
Scott Delaney
My free play for Sunday is on the Carolina Panthers, who catch the San Francisco 49ers in a great spot.
The Panthers have had plenty of time to shake off a tough-luck loss, in which a last-second field goal sailed wide, allowing the Denver Broncos to escape with a season-opening 21-20 win 10 days ago.
Meanwhile, the Niners arrive across the country on short rest, after their 28-0 win over the Los Angeles Rams on Monday night in Frisco. I know word out of Frisco is 49ers coaches spent part of Sunday and Monday breaking down Carolina's film before San Francisco played its first game, but that just saved them time - not the players. They still have to perform on a short week, after traveling cross-country.
And note to the Niners, this is a pissed off group of Panthers who are playing in their home opener, not the Rams and their bleak offense. San Francisco's defense will be tested by Superman - ahem, Cam Newton - and a Panthers team that averaged more than 31 points per game last season, plus, finished 10-0 at home, including two playoff wins.
Take Carolina, as it rolls to a huge win and cover.
2* PANTHERS