Chris Jordan
My free winner is on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers plus the points against the Arizona Cardinals, in what should be an interesting road game for the pirates. Last week I told you to play the Bucs over Atlanta, and they got it done. Tonight I want you playing them again, this time in Glendale.
I personally think the Bucs will turn things around this season, and could be a thorn in Carolina's side, challenging for the NFC South title. That's why this game today could prove to be pivotal in about 15 or 16 weeks. Carolina is hosting the Niners, and will likely win, moving it to 1-1. A win for Tampa Bay keeps it at 2-0, and a game in front.
Tampa Bay coach Dirk Koetter has this team playing well, while quarterback Jameis Winston looks to be in midseason form and ready to go. I love his physique and what he's done. He's put on lean body mass, while shedding body fat. So while he's still a 230-pound quarterback, he's carved up and quicker and agile with less body fat to carry around.
Take the road pup in this one.
5* BUCCANEERS
Tony Karpinski
Falcons vs. Raiders
Play: Raiders -4
Amari Cooper can play with an anyone. Cooper is virtually impossible to defend when gets ?into the flow of the game. He is a top ended WR - ?and ?Desmond Trufant needs to keep an eye on him, ?but Amari will be a difference maker, again. The Raiders coming off a huge win last week will be fired up and ready to play. Atlanta has routinely struggled playing the pass. Atlanta cannot defend the big passing attack of Oakland. They have given up 280 YDs or more through the airwaves over the last 4/5 regular season games they have played. Raiders are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games after allowing more than 30 points in their previous game. Jack Del Rio will have the Raiders ready here at home on Sunday afternoon.
Sean Murphy
Colts vs. Broncos
Play: Over 46½
I'll back the 'over' in Denver on Sunday afternoon. There was a real contrast in the type of game these two teams were involved in a week ago as the Broncos kicked off the new season with a defensively-dominant win over the Panthers while the Colts fell in a shootout against the Lions. Here, I'm looking for a cross between the two, but I do believe this total will prove to be too low. The Colts won't be intimidated by this matchup. Despite looking shaky at times early in the game, Andrew Luck and co. managed to pile up the yardage and points in last week's eventual loss to the Lions. The Broncos obviously pose a much tougher challenge defensively, but I believe the Colts have the personnel in place to find some success. Meanwhile, the Broncos offense actually looked a little more dynamic with rookie QB Trevor Siemian under center and C.J. Anderson appeared rejuvenated out of the backfield. The Broncos should be able to run wild against an undermanned Colts defense here. The loser gets north of 20 points in this one, and we'll be in excellent position to cash our ticket.
Chip Chirimbes
Titans vs. Lions
Play: Titans +6
Detroit quarterback Matthew Stafford looks like a different player this season without wideout Calvin Johnson as he completed passes to eight different receivers against the Colts in Game 1. The Titans expected one-two running punch with DeMarco Murray and Derrick Henry didn't live up to expectations gains just 45 yards between them. The Titans are 7-2 ATS in their last nine road openers while the Lions are 1-10 straight-up against AFC South opponents and 6-15 ATS before Green Bay.
ASA
Bengals vs. Steelers
Play: Bengals +3½
The road team has actually won 4 of the last 5 in this AFC North rivalry and we give the Bengals a great shot to win this one. Cincy went into New York and beat the Jets which became even more impressive after watching the flyboys dominate Buffalo on the road Thursday night (game was not as close as the final score indicated). The Steelers also got a win (we were on them) but beating a Washington team that didn’t beat a single team with a winning record last year was not as impressive. However, with that game being on Monday Night and the entire country watching, people will definitely head to the windows to jump on Pitt. That’s why this line is higher than it should be. Last year the Steelers were a pick-em at home vs Bengals (Cincy won). This number (currently -3.5) is the highest it’s been for Pitt as a favorite vs Cincy since 2011. That doesn’t equate as the Bengals are just as good, if not better, than they have been in recent years. Also a little extra juice is added to this game as Cincy blew a lead in last year’s playoff and gave the Steelers a win with some a few boneheaded hits that led to personal fouls. Bengal QB Andy Dalton didn’t play in that game due to injury but when he’s the starter, the Bengals are 11-2 their last 13 games overall. This one stays tight and we like Cincinnati and the points.
Scott Rickenbach
Jaguars vs. Chargers
Play: Jaguars +3
When you look for a "questionable" favorite on the board in Sunday's NFL your eyes are likely drawn to the Chargers. San Diego went just 4-12 last year and is also off of a tough heart-breaking loss at Kansas City as the Chargers blew a huge lead against the Chiefs and the lost in overtime. Those types of defeats are always tough to bounce back from but this is especially true when a team than has to face an upstart opponent like the Jaguars. Indeed Jacksonville is a team on the rise and they had a strong performance versus a tough Green Bay team. The Jags threw for 300 yards in that game and the Chargers (allowed 330 to the Chiefs last week) certainly are susceptible through the air. San Diego is on a 2-8 ATS run as a home favorite and the Jaguars are very hungry after coming up just short against a quality opponent in Week One. Jacksonville also is seeking revenge here for a home loss to the Chargers last season which was a game where the Jaguars did win the yardage battle by more than 50 yards. It is payback time. Grab the points with the Jaguars in this one.
Brandon Lee
Tigers +128
Detroit is worth a look as a decent priced road dog on Sunday. The Tigers are going to come out with a chip on their shoulder after dropping the first two games of the series and I give them an edge on the mound with Daniel Norris facing off against Trevor Bauer. Norris has pitched his best on the road, where he has a 3.72 ERA in 4 starts. He's also coming in off two strong outings, where he allowed just 5 runs on 9 hits with 18 strikeouts in 12 1/3 innings of work. Bauer on the other hand is in a big time slump at the moment. He's got a 6.75 ERA in his last 3 starts. In his last two outings, he's allowed 11 runs on 13 hits in just 10 1/3 innings of work. It's also worth pointing out that Norris has a 3.60 ERA in 2 career starts against the Indians, while Bauer has a 6.64 ERA in 8 career starts against Detroit.
SPORTS WAGERS
Detroit +127 over CLEVELAND
It’s hard to believe, but former top prospect Trevor Bauer, who broke into the majors in 2012, is still just 25 years old. While Bauer drifted between the rotation and bullpen this year, his results have generally been positive but there are still some warts in his profile. As usual, walks are an issue with 64 in 171 innings. While he’s improved on his 2015 level, he’s still not delivering enough first-pitch strikes to think there’s room for further improvement. Bauer’s 1.29 WHIP is also on the fringe of acceptability. When you are pitching with traffic all year, it takes a toll on one’s arm and while we like the progress of Bauer and will put him on our radar, the Tigers have seen him so many times that it makes him too big a risk. Furthermore, we mentioned briefly about fading teams that walk off in its previous game and Cleveland hit a walk-off 10th inning jack last night.
This wager, however, is all about backing one of the league’s most undervalued starters. Daniel Norris is not someone you'd expect to find near the top of a list of the most skilled starters since mid-2015. Over the past 12 months, Norris has generated excellent command with 8 K’s/9 and just 1.7 BB’s/9 and it’s only getting better. Over his last five starts, Norris has a BB/K split of 8/31 in 29 innings. His 66% first-pitch strike rate says walks will become less frequent. Norris had top-prospect status before he was traded to Detroit (from Toronto) and was the key cog in the David Price deal that Detroit would not have made unless Norris was included. He shot up through the Jays farm system with some eye-opening numbers before injuries set it. Norris’ fastball averages out at 94 MPH with sink. His swinging strike rate over his last six starts was 12% and 15% in his last game. This is a kid with ace potential and filthy stuff that is trending the right way right now. Norris is the perfect example of why we should remain patient with youthful, former top prospects that hit a bump in the road. Hopefully, we can cash in on his under the radar profile.
Oakland +178 over TEXAS
There’s a very good chance that Ross Detwiler goes out there today and gets his ass handed to him. Detwiler comes in with a 5.31 ERA and just 25 K’s in 41 innings. While Detwiler never has been quite this bad, he's been far from successful in his career, particularly in his recent career. His xERA never has been below 4.00 in his career and over the three years ending in 2015, his xERA's ranged from 4.24 to 4.34 and his K-rate ranged from 4.9 to 5.8/9. He is a risk but that matters not, as Oakland continues to swing hot sticks while Colby Lewis cannot be favored in this range.
Texas has said that they plan to give Lewis as much work as possible down the stretch to prepare him for a possible postseason rotation slot. Lewis' pre-injury 3.21 ERA was aided by a Estrada-like 24% opponent's hit rate but his 5.59 xERA is a better measure of his level of pitching. Given his extended time missed to injury and a relatively short rehab stint, don't count on Lewis' stats continuing to outdo his skills down the stretch. Lewis throws 86 MPH heat and he’ll now face an Oakland team that has scored 16, 5, 8, 14, 6 and 11 runs in its past six games respectively with the first four of those outputs occurring at pitcher friendly Kaufmann Stadium. Funny, isn’t it, that as soon as the A’s rid themselves of Billy Butler they started winning while the Yanks haven’t won since they picked him up? Anyway, Colby Lewis is priced like he’s Cole Hamels and that is not right.
Buster Sports
Houston Astros at Seattle Mariners
Play: Seattle Mariners -104
The Seattle Mariners have lost the first 2 games of their 3 game series against the Houston Astros and they are watching their chances of a wild card berth slip away with every loss. Today they send their 27 yr old pitcher LH Ariel Miranda (3-1, 3.49 ERA) to the mound to make his 8th start of the year. Miranda has been pitching well for the Mariners just at the right time of year with a 2.00 ERA and a WHIP of 1 in his last 3 starts. The Astros send RH Doug Fister (12-11, 4.17 ERA) to the hill and the wheels have fell off for Fister as of late. In his last 3 starts he has a 11.08 ERA with a WHIP of 2.432. His last start in Seattle he lasted 5 innings and allowed 3 runs. Today we believe the Mariners who have scored only one run in the last 2 games get to him real early. This game is basically a pk game and we believe that is great value, considering how terrible Fister has been pitching of late. Backing our selection is the fact that the Astros are 1-5 in Fister's last 6 starts vs. a team with a winning record.
Scott Spreitzer
Dallas Cowboys at Washington Redskins
Play: Washington Redskins -3
It wasn't that long ago when Cowboys' QB Dak Prescott was playing against vanilla preseason gameplans and he owned those units, completing 78% of his pass attempts. But it got real last week and while we give the young signal caller props for not throwing a pick, he did complete just 25 of 45 passes, a 56% success rate and averaged just 5.04 yards per pass. The Skins looked ugly on Monday night, no doubt about it. But I expect a bounce back here. Washington's offense owns a top-5 receiving unit and will face a porous Dallas defense with one of the worst defensive backfields. Washington has covered nine of the last 12 meetings and I believe they'll win and cover on Sunday, bouncing back off the ugly loss.
Oskeim Sports
Baltimore Ravens at Cleveland Browns
Play: Cleveland Browns 7
With Robert Griffin III's comeback bid in Cleveland effectively derailed by a shoulder injury in week one, the Browns will be starting multiple quarterbacks for an NFL-record 15th consecutive season (see Elias Sports Bureau). Cleveland now turns to 37-year-old backup Josh McCown, who has actually won two of his last three starts against the Ravens.
However, during his tenure in Cleveland, McCown is just 1-7 SU and 3-5 ATS under center. Baltimore backers will also point to the fact that favorites of 7 or more points were 7-0 SU and 6-1 ATS versus the Browns last season. Those trends certainly appear daunting for Cleveland investors, but the Ravens (and those betting on them) are dealing with market inflation based upon last week's disparate results.
The Ravens were 3.5-point favorites in this game (advanced line) before they defeated Buffalo, at which point many sports books re-listed Baltimore at -4.5. Following the news that Griffin was being placed on the injured reserve list, the line was adjusted again to -7. Under no circumstances should Baltimore be laying seven points on the road, and some would argue that McCown is an upgrade over Griffin!
Indeed, McCown is 21-10 ATS following a SU and ATS loss, including 16-6 ATS as an underdog. The Browns are also 3-1-1 ATS in the last five meetings in this series, while the underdog is 4-0-1 ATS in the last five clashes between these division foes. Let's also note that Baltimore quarterback Joe Flacco is just 7-11 ATS as a road favorite, 3-9 ATS versus .250 or worse opposition and posted a woeful 1-7 ATS mark in eight starts last season.
Finally, the last four meetings in this series have been decided by a combined 21 points (5.3 points per game), with the largest margin of victory being ten points (December, 2014). In last year's two clashes, the games were decided by 3 and 6 points, respectively.
Dwayne Bryant
San Francisco 49ers at Carolina Panthers
Play: Carolina Panthers -13.5
The defending NFC Champion Carolina Panthers open the home portion of their schedule by hosting the 49ers on Sunday. Your free NFL selection for Week Two is CAROLINA -13.5.
The Panthers opened the season last Thursday in Denver. It was a rematch from the Super Bowl, and the end result was the same. Carolina blew a double-digit lead and lost to the Broncos, 21-20.
The 49ers kicked off their season with a dominant 28-0 rout of the Los Angeles Rams. New San Francisco head coach Chip Kelly couldn’t have asked for a better start to his tenure in the bay.
But the scheduling of this game clearly favors the Panthers. Carolina has extra prep time, while the 49ers are coming off the short week having played on Monday night.
This is also an early start time on the East Coast for the West Coast Niners. It will actually be 10 AM on the 49ers’ body clocks when this one kicks off.
The Panther are clearly the better team in this contest. I’m not the least bit fooled by the 49ers’ dominant win over the Rams. This is a huge step up in class for San Francisco. Bettors tend to overreact to last week’s results. That’s a recipe for disaster, and I think it would be here as well.
The Panthers are 10-0 straight-up and 8-2 ATS as a favorite of seven or more points with Cam Newton under center.
I honestly believe Carolina can win this game by as many points as they want. After letting that big revenge game get away from them in the opener, I expect Carolina to give an all-out effort for the full sixty minutes here.
HarryBondi
Bengals / Steelers Under 49
This total is simply too high here for a game between two bitter rivals who are completely familiar with each other and are playing their fourth game against each other in 10 months. Three of the last four meetings have gone under the total and these two teams are a combined 8-18 to the under in their last 26 divisional games. The Bengals have also been an “under” machine in this situation, cashing under tickets in 10 of their last 14 games as an underdog, 12 of their last 18 road games and eight of their last nine games on grass fields.
Bob Balfe
Falcons +4.5
Are the Raiders ready to be decent size favorites? The Falcons have a good QB and their recent struggle the last few years is because of injury, but this is still a team that has a Julio Jones and now Sanu is making them spread the field. I was not thrilled with Oakland’s Defense last week. Too many things can happen for Atlanta to back themselves into a cover if they can’t get the outright win. The Raiders have a few guys already banged up on that offensive line so depth will be an issue late in the game.
Bruce Marshall
Saints +4
The fact the Giants finally won a nail biter at Dallas after blowing five late fourth-Q leads LY for Tom Coughlin suggests N.Y. might be turning the corner for new HC Ben McAdoo. But that was versus a rookie QB-RB duo. Now, the rebuilt Giant defense must prove itself vs. New Orleans maestro Drew Brees, who passed for 423 yards and 4 TDs vs. the Raiders and who torched the G-Men for 511 YP and 7 TDs (!) LY at the Superdome. Brees 7-3-1 as a dog the past 2 years.