Free Picks: Free Service Plays for Sunday, September 24th, 2017

Executive Sports

Cincinnati at Green Bay
Play: Cincinnati +9.5

Play Against Home favorites (GREEN BAY) team with a poor scoring defense last season allowed 24 or more points/game, after a playing a game where 50 total points or more were scored. (33-5, 87% since 1983.)

The situation's record this season is: (1-0).
The last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (8-2).
The last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (13-2).
The last 10 seasons the situation's record is: (21-4).

Tony Finn

Houston vs. New England
Play: New England -12.5

Houston visits Gillette Stadium in Foxborough on Sunday in a Week #3 event against New England. These two teams and coaching staffs have a history despite not playing in the same division and the scheduled 1:00 p.m. ET kickoff this weekend presents a contest that doesn't look to be competitive. The oddsmakers believe this as well and have set the market price to support the Patriots duo of Brady and Belichick at minus-13 points.

Former Patriots defensive coordinator Romeo Crennel’s scheme tactics versus the Brady offense in years past have been semi-successful and while the 2017 Houston defense has the ability to be stingy the offensive unit for the Texans do the stop-unit few favors.
The question in this Sunday game isn't whether Houston can do enough defensively to be hanging around in the fourth quarter, but rather, the true quandary is whether one can trust a rookie quarterback against Belichick's staff in Boston metro?

In truth, relying on a rookie quarterback on the NFL big stage, be it a regular season game against legends (Brady and Belichick) or a postseason affair, isn't responsible. The Texans starting signal caller, Deshaun Watson, was fortunate to get out of Cincinnati with a win last weekend and the repeat of last week's results won't happen in the clubs second straight road event against the Pats.

The New England defense isn't all that and the first two games of Coach B's 2017 unit has been sketchy at best. In fact, never in the New England/Belichick tenure has one of his defenses allowed the points and the yardage that the club did in the season opening loss to the Kansas City Chiefs.

Like Kansas City, the Patriots Week #2 opponent (New Orleans Saints) had speed and played with pace, something Houston doesn't do and won't with a rookie behind center.

Injuries to the Texans offensive line limit the young quarterback's ability to utilize his athleticism and as a result his accuracy and understanding of defenses is a work in progress.

Those who viewed the Texans win over Cincinnati a week ago couldn't help but see that head coach Bill O’Brien was playing "not to lose". This philosophy worked against Andy Dalton and Marvin Lewis but it won't against Tom Brady and Bill Belichick.

Watson makes just his second NFL start - the team's second straight as a visitor - and all of this behind an O-Line that is decimated with injuries. Houston has ailments to their receiving corps, as well, with three tight-ends under concussion protocol and last week's active list offering Watson just three wide receivers with league experience.

With no Jeff Allen and Pro Bowl left tackle Duane Brown on the field and in front of young Watson it figures to be a long and frustrating afternoon for the Houston offense.

Brady is in a position to be facing a large number of defensive secondary replacement parts. Injuries to starters Kevin Johnson and Johnathan Joseph will limit the scheme of Crennel and the unit is also without suspended linebacker Brian Cushing making the Patriots passing game dangerous.

It isn't unusual for Brady and company to be double digit favorites at home and this team has, for the most part, covered the big number at Foxborough. Evidence of such comes in the form of New England's 20-7 ATS mark across their last 27 home affairs.

Strike Point Sports

Houston vs. New England
Play: New England -13

New England isn't as good as people think. Tom Brady looks old and slow. This team isn't going to run through teams like they have in the past"… Ummm, yeah, lets slow that down. The Patriots, following their surprising loss to the Kansas City Chiefs, dropped 30 points in the first half on the New Orleans Saints. Yes, this Texans defense is significantly better than the Saints. But their offense won't stand a chance of keeping pace with the Patriots. New England is just too good on the offensive side of the football, and this is with their top WR Cooks not really doing anything as of yet. Once Cooks gets going this team is going to be even more dangerous than we all know they can be. New England is 26-10-2 ATS in their last 38 home games while Houston is 3-7 ATS in their last 10 road games. Lay the big number on New England in this one as they are 6-1 ATS in their last seven versus the AFC.

Teddy Covers

Ravens vs Jaguars
Play: Jaguars +4

Joe Flacco missed all of preseason; one of many injured veterans for the Ravens in August. Baltimore lost nearly a dozen guys to IR in training camp, losing key bodies on both sides of the football. Flacco has looked rusty, with only 338 passing yards through two games. And he hasn’t been tested – the ravens have not yet trailed this season. The Ravens, as a team, have only one explosive play on offense through two games. They’ve rushed for under four yards per carry. And now the key to their offensive line, six time pro bowler Marshall Yanda, has been placed on injured reserve after breaking his ankle last week.

Yanda’s injury cannot be overstated. With him gone, this team is now without three of their five OL starters from last year, as well as their top two backups from a season ago. This would be a problem for any offense. It matters even more with a QB and skill position talent that don’t have much familiarity with one another after the barrage of August injuries.

And for all the success the Ravens have had with their 2-0 SU and ATS start, let’s not forget two things. First, Baltimore has generated 10 turnovers. No other team has more than five. Every team looks good and covers spreads when they are +7 in turnovers over a two game span.

Secondly, John Harbaugh is not a ‘let’s lay points with him’ kind of coach, especially on the highway. The Ravens have been feisty underdogs for years under Harbaugh. However, they’ve got a grand total of one pointspread cover in their last eight tries as favorites away from home dating back to 2014; failing repeatedly in this role. I’ve got Harbaugh as 3-10 ATS in his last 13 tries laying more than a field goal on any field, and all three of those covers have come against the same team – Cleveland.

The defense Baltimore is facing this week is no joke. Say what you want about Blake Bortles (yes, I know Bortles sucks, but I think the Jags can cover in spite of him), Jacksonville’s stop unit is the best one the Ravens have seen this year. Offseason acquisition Calais Campbell has been a pass rushing force, who’s veteran leadership has been “off the charts” according to head coach Doug Marrone. Free agent signee AJ Bouye gives them a stud cornerback duo with last year’s #1 pick Jalen Ramsey, on the other side. This defense finished #4 in the NFL in yards per play allowed last year. They dominated the game at Houston in Week 1. And they kept the Titans out of the end zone until the second half last week before finally wearing down late.

The Jags play in London every year. They won their London game in 2015. They won their London game last year, developing a following in the UK and at least some semblance of a home field edge at Wembley. This is the first ever game that the Ravens have played outside the continental US. Put it all together and the Jags catching more than a field goal are a clear choice for this bettor.

SPORTS WAGERS

Houston +14 over NEW ENGLAND

Did you see how the Patriots responded last week after getting humiliated by the Chiefs the week prior? After losing to K.C. in Week 1, the media and market was screaming that the Patriots dynasty was coming to an end and that Tom Brady is getting old. Boy oh boy did the Pats put that talk to rest by going into New Orleans and hanging up 36 points on the Saints in an easy 16-point win. Since the Patriots are the biggest brand in the NFL, the biggest over and under-reactions occur on them every single week and this week is no exception. Forget about Week 1. Tom Brady led the league with 447 yards and three touchdowns in New Orleans.

Kansas City used a great running attack with great defense to put away the Patriots in Week 1. How easily that is forgotten. Houston can use a similar approach, as its defense is rock solid too and can win games on its own. The Texans also have a QB that can run and that brings an entirely different dynamic that NFL defenses have to deal with. Deshaun Watson also brings enthusiasm and hope to an offense that was and has been stale for years.

That brings us to a relevant metric that is called Adjusted Line Yards. Adjusted Line Yards is the rating system for offensive and defensive lines. These are measures of running plays, quarterback sacks and hurries and it also takes into consideration down and distance. The defensive numbers don't measure just the defensive line, but the whole front seven against the run. It may surprise you to learn that of the 32 teams in the NFL, New England ranks dead last in this metric, which reveals how vulnerable both lines are. Just above New England is Jacksonville, Atlanta, New Orleans and Washington but the only thing the media wants to talk about is how Tom Brady and the Patriots whacked New Orleans. Incidentally, the Saints are a putrid squad that can’t stop the marching band. So, while the public and media drool all over the Patriots this week, we continue to see weaknesses galore on this perceived powerhouse. There is also a different feeling in the Texans locker room that started last week in Cincinnati when Deshaun Watson led them to a road victory with a 50-yard TD run. We now are being offered some crazy inflated points here in a game that may not turn out as easy as the media is saying it will be. The Pats a lock? Uh-uh, as his one could be scary close and we would not be surprised to see the unthinkable happen. Believe it or not.

Dallas -3 over ARIZONA

Dallas got whacked by the Broncos 42-17, but the biggest story coming out of that game on the Cowboys' side was the shade thrown on running back Ezekiel Elliot after he quit on a pair of Dak Prescott interceptions, one of which led to a touchdown when he could have made a tackle on the return. Zeke also had his worst rushing day as a pro with eight yards on nine carries. The Cowboys are a premier team and just about everything that happens in Big D is blown out of proportion. Dallas was a small road favorite going into Denver after coming off a high-profile Sunday night win over the Giants, but now that New York is 0-2 after an embarrassing loss of its own on Monday night, that victory over Big Blue doesn't hold as much weight in the market as it maybe did a week ago. We've heard this week that the blueprint is now out on how to beat the Cowboys, stop Zeke and make Prescott throw. These are the same guys that were slobbering all over Dak after he threw just four interceptions all of last season. In a week to week league like the NFL we are always looking for over and under-reactions and a lopsided loss like the one the ‘Boys suffered in Denver really stands out when you are supposed to be a Super Bowl contender. There is no shame in losing in the Mile High City, as the Broncos have been the best home team in the NFL for over four decades. The unpleasant way in which it went down should only motivate the Cowboys to be better this week when they take a big step down in competition with the entire country watching on a Monday night game in the desert.

Our fade of the Cardinals continues this week. Arizona is also 1-1 but they’ve played two of the ugliest games of football we’ve ever seen to open a season. They’ve lost their best player with running back David Johnson out for at least a couple of months and what remains of their offense looks old and busted. Carson Palmer is at the end of the line and looks like he couldn’t hit the broadside of a barn right now, His 54.8 completion percentage this season proves it. Palmer has thrown more interceptions (4) than touchdowns (2) and the only reason the Cardinals aren’t taking as much heat as the Giants are is because nobody without a stake has bothered to watch either of their games. It's not just the surface stats that are showing Palmer's decline but his numbers under the hood as well. When looking at Defense-adjusted Yards Above Replacement (which gives the value of a QB's performance compared to a replacement level, and then translated into yardage) Palmer is a -35, which puts him 25th in the league, sandwiched between Mike Glennon and Jacoby Brissett, not exactly elite company. What's more, the Cardinals offense as a whole has a negative DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average) rating of -24% which ranks 27th in the league and puts them with the likes of the Jets and Texans through two games, but neither of those clubs had the high preseason expectation of the Cardinals. Arizona was very fortunate to have won last Sunday, as the undermanned Colts led for most of that game. The Cards were able to capitalize on a Jacoby Brissett interception early in overtime in Colts territory. Arizona was lucky to take the game into OT and just as fortunate to win it.

We’re always preaching not to overreact to one or two performances so one has to question whether we’re overreacting to Arizona’s two ugly performances. That’s a fair question that requires an answer. We started attacking Arizona right out of the gate and suggested that this year is a carryover from last season in which the Cardinals got progressively worse each week. We’re reacting to a 16-game schedule last plus two games this year in which the Cardinals more often than not looked sloppy and old and were the inferior team on the field most weeks. Arizona has not improved while Dallas is an outstanding football team that is coming off one bad week. We absolutely love that Zak Prescott took responsibility for last week’s debacle, as that shows leadership and inspires everyone to rally. The overreaction here is to Dallas getting torched last week but great teams rebound big time and Dallas couldn’t have handpicked a softer opponent than the incapable and disheveled group that they’ll see here. Rarely are we in favor of spotting road points but there are exceptions from time to time and we trust that the market is way off on this one, which is why we’re posting this Monday night game on Friday.

CAROLINA -5½ over New Orleans

The Saints are 0-2 while the Panthers are 2-0 but Carolina is getting very little credit in this market and we can understand why. You see, Carolina has defeated San Francisco and Buffalo and barely got by the Bills last week. The Panthers 23-3 victory over the 49ers in Week 1 didn’t resonate very loudly either. Combined, Buffalo and San Francisco may combine to win 6-8 games this year in 32 tries so again, Carolina is not getting near the same credit as other 2-0 teams and that provides us with an opportunity. Do not dismiss the Panthers holding two NFL teams to three points in back-to-back weeks.

Meanwhile, New Orleans lost on the road in Minnesota on Monday Night Football in Week 1 and subsequently got whacked in Week 2 by Tom Brady and the Patriots, who were coming off an embarrassing Thursday night loss to Kansas City. Both those losses are acceptable in the market and even predictable and now the Saints are getting some credit for being “battle-tested” against two playoff-bound teams. While strength of schedule counts for something, there is a difference between being competitive in those difficult games and getting torched not once but twice in two games. In Minnesota, the Saints were outgained 470-344. The Vikes may not put up 470 again this year. On 3rd down, Minnesota went 9/14 for a 64% success rate, which further emphasizes how soft this Saints defense truly is. The 29-19 final in Minnesota was flattering to Sean Payton’s group. In Week 2, New Orleans allowed Brady to throw three TDs in the first quarter for the first time in his career. That game was over before the first hot dog of the day was sold. Sean Payton is an offensive-minded coach that pays no attention to defense and so this is a defense that can’t get off the field. Every time the opposition has the ball, the Saints’ chances of getting a stop are weak. They don’t stop anyone. We cannot and will not trust the Saints to counterpunch every time. This is a bad football team that got more exposed in Week 2 than they did in Week 1 and it likely continues here. Play Carolina.

CHICAGO +7 over Pittsburgh

The Pittsburgh Steelers are predictably 2-0 after defeating Cleveland in Week 1 and a Sam Bradford-less Vikings in Week 2. Week 3 doesn’t appear to be very difficult either but things aren’t always as they appear. The Steelers were fortunate in Week 1 to defeat Cleveland, as they lost the time of possession battle and they could not move two yards on the ground. Pittsburgh had a mere 35 yards on the ground on 17 carries and as a result, Cleveland also had more first downs than the Steelers. The Steelers dodged a bullet with a three-point win but did not come close to covering as a -7½ point road favorite.

You’ll have to excuse us while we crap out pants over the Steelers 26-9 victory over the Vikings in Week 2. The Steelers closed as a 10-point favorite after the market learned that Case Keenum would be starting at QB over the injured Sam Bradford. That not only hurt the Vikes’ chances, it also hurt team morale after such a promising win the week before. Still, the Steelers did not put up impressive numbers for the second week in a row. Ben Roethlisberger plays much better at home than he does on the road and the Steelers keep underachieving for several reasons. The most notable is that Mike Tomlin’s football mind moves slower than Rob Ryan at an all-you-can-eat vegetable buffet. The Steelers are a popular team that always get far too much market credit, which provides us with this great opportunity.

Chicago is 0-2 after losing to Atlanta in Week 1 and then getting destroyed in Week 2 in Tampa Bay by a score of 29-7. The Buccaneers jumped out to a 10-0 lead in the first quarter and added 16 more points in the second quarter to take a 26-0 lead into the break before cruising to an easy victory. Because it was an early blowout and because it was Chicago at Tampa Bay, it was probably the least watched game on the menu. To the casual observer and/or to the market, it looks like an easy Tampa Bay victory but we’re here to tell you that it was Sunday’s most misleading score.

Four early turnovers led to three Tampa TD’s and a big Chicago deficit. From start to finish, Tampa had trouble moving the ball while the Bears did not but could not get into a good rhythm. Jameis Winston threw for a mere 204 yards on a pedestrian 18-30 day while Chicago’s Mike Glennon threw for over 300 yards. The Bears were in the red zone a few times but because they were down so much, they were forced to go on some fourth downs and ended up turning the ball over on three separate occasions deep in Tampa’s territory. The total net yards were 311 to 310 (it doesn’t matter for whom) but Tampa won the luck-driven turnover battle, 4-1, which does not include the three turnovers on downs. Perception in this market is everything and we’re going to show you a great example of that. This is from a well-known publication that was analyzing Week 3’s upcoming games. Here’s what the author wrote:

“The Chicago Bears looked lifeless in a 29-7 loss to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Sunday that wasn't even as close as the score indicates. Chicago is likely headed for a last-place season while Pittsburgh will almost certainly contend for a top seed in the AFC playoffs. Expect the talent of Pittsburgh's offensive stars (wideout Antonio Brown and running back Le'Veon Bell) to be too much in this one”. Predicted Final Score: Steelers 27, Bears 10.

Looked lifeless? Wasn’t even as close as the score indicates? This is exactly why some games are not appropriately priced. Here’s a guy from a well-known publication that probably watched less than 30 seconds of that game, saw the highlights on TV and then misinformed the betting public into thinking it should have been 46-7 not 29-7. We, on the other hand watched the game in its entirety, discussed it in-depth and went over all the numbers to properly inform you that the Bears should have covered and had it not been for turnovers, would have likely won outright. By the way, does anyone remember that the Bears were in a position to defeat Atlanta in Week 1 back at Soldier Field?

Atlanta was a 6½-point favorite in Chicago in Week 1. Now, because of last week’s results, Pittsburgh is a bigger favorite in Week 3 in Chicago than Atlanta was in Week 1. That cannot be but it is and it provides us with this great value play. Chicago can absolutely win this game but the great equalizer (the point-spread) shifts the advantage heavily in our favor. Take the points.

Cleveland -1½ over INDIANAPOLIS

Alright, let’s see if we have this right. The 0-2 Browns lost by 14 points in their only other road game this year. They have not won a road game in nearly two years. It’s not just that Cleveland is an 0-2 team whose rookie quarterback and his second-year backup combined to throw four interceptions and lose a fumble in a 24-10 loss to the Ravens last week. It’s that the Browns haven’t been a road favorite in three years and have been a road favorite only three times in the last 10 seasons. There are significantly more NFL games that now end in ties than games that began with Cleveland being favored on the road. Browns’ Rookie QB, DeShone Kizer brings in a new feature to the offense - migraine headaches. He was pulled from the Week 2 game because of one and that left Kevin Hogan running the offense. Cleveland has had only two winning seasons since its franchise reboot in 1999 while the Colts have had just two losing seasons over the same span. Indy has played in an AFC championship game more recently than the Browns have been favored on the road, which occurred in the January 2015 matchup with the Patriots that spawned Deflategate. Cleveland favored on the road? Seriously?

Meanwhile, the Colts are 1-1 and had the Cardinals by the short hairs last week before succumbing in OT. From gate to almost wire, the Colts led outright and were never in danger of not covering. That effort and near win against a perceived quality opponent instantly gives the Colts some market credentials. Hell, if Indy could put a scare into Carson Palmer and the Cardinals, facing the Browns should be much easier, no? The general feeling around the market is that the Colts are a steal at home this week but do you really think that the books made a bad line here? On a “normal” Sunday, this game would be the least talked about game on the menu but with Cleveland favored on the road, the game sticks out like Shaquille O’Neal in a room full of midgets and we’re here to assure you that the books don’t have it wrong.

The worst way that a team can handle an injury is by forcing an injured player back into action before he’s ready, and the Colts decidedly have not done that. But the whole thing has been botched. Luck’s injury was not a surprise; the Colts knew he was hurting and presumably gave him the go-ahead to have a non-urgent procedure to fix a problem. This gave Indianapolis the entire 2017 offseason to plan for the possibility of Luck missing extended time. The Colts could have signed a competent backup, as many were available (one of those quarterbacks was Colin Kaepernick, who is still unsigned). They could have used a mid- to late-round draft pick on a quarterback and given the youngster the opportunity to spend training camp and the preseason practicing with a first-team NFL offense.

Instead the Colts rolled with quarterback Scott Tolzien, who at no point has displayed anything resembling competence. He entered this season with two career touchdown passes and seven interceptions in six NFL seasons. After playing for three quarters in Week 1 against the Rams, he now has two career touchdown passes and nine interceptions. Indy scrambled upon realizing it was heading into the fall with such an awful QB and hastily traded for Jacoby Brissett from the Pats a week before the season. Brissett is fine—he’s the greatest preseason quarterback of all time—but the Colts had to give up 2015 first-round pick Phillip Dorsett to get him and are now starting a player who still might have to use Waze to find the team’s facility. It’s baffling that the team would fail to plan for the absence of its franchise passer—who, quite frankly, is the only point of strength on an aggressively weak roster.

The Colts’ best running back is 34-year-old Frank Gore. Their offensive line is piecemeal. They have basically no good defensive players other than cornerback Vontae Davis, who is also injured. Stunningly, the Colts’ defensive starting lineup in Week 1 was composed entirely of players who did not start in Indianapolis’s season-opener last year, a feat that’s nearly impossible to pull off. The Colts roster is a joke. They have without question the worst collection of talent in the NFL and perhaps the worst ever.

The Brownies have not been outplayed against two quality opponents and had it not been for losing the turnover battle to Baltimore last week, 5-2 that game may have had a different outcome. This market likely doesn’t even realize how close the Brownies came to knocking off the Steelers in Week 1. This game is a defining moment for the Brownies. They have done some great drafting and have quality players throughout the entire roster. Losing to a roster this bad does not show progress and will send an already frustrated fan base and media into a frenzy of harsh criticism. Yes indeed folks, the odds makers did make a bad line here and we get to take advantage of it. Cleveland should be -7 and not -1½.

DETROIT +137 over Atlanta

What do the Lions have to do to get some respect around here? For a third straight week and the second time at home this season, Detroit is a dog. While it’s clear that a pair of wins over the Cardinals and Giants don’t hold much weight in this market, don’t sleep on head coach Jim Caldwell and these Lions. The Lions took the Giants to school with an easy and convincing win and put up 35 easy points on the Cardinals in Week 1 while holding a significant edge in time of possession. While quarterback Matthew Stafford is the league’s highest-paid player that has got most of the attention this season, it’s the Lions defense that is carrying this team. On the surface it looks decent enough with the Lions allowing just 578 yards through two games good for 10th in the league but it gets even better when we dig a little deeper and find that Detroit is 4th in Defensive DVOA (a state that measures a team’s efficiency by comparing success on every single play to a league average based on situation and opponent) which is a better representation of where that unit is as a whole. By comparison, the Falcons are just 23rd in the league using that relevant metric. Detroit is coming off another outstanding defensive effort. Its offense is coming off a game against a very good Giants defense and now returns home to take a big step down in class in facing the Falcons defense. That matters and so do situations. Atlanta is coming off a high-profile game on Sunday night against the Packers. That game opened the Falcons new stadium and also allowed fans to erase the stinging memory of Atlanta’s Super Bowl meltdown. Everything is fine once again in Atlanta, as the Falcons are 2-0 and just showcased on National TV that they are not to be forgotten. With Buffalo and Miami on deck after this one, Atlanta might be feeling a little complacent here. They won their first big game of the season and don’t have another big game until their sixth game of the season when they get another crack at the Patriots. The media is already talking about that rematch.

Atlanta had nothing but trouble and near misery in their first road game of the season in Chicago when motivation is high and everyone is excited to play a game that counts. This now becomes the perfect spot to fade the Falcons because their intensity figures to be lower than it was in Week 1 in Chicago and much lower that it was last week against the Pack. Detroit is almost always a tough out in their own barn but more importantly, this is a much bigger game to the Lions than it is to the Falcons. Detroit is the most disrespected team in the league that has a great opportunity here to beat a team with market cred. We trust they’ll respond. Detroit outright is the call.

Survivor Picks - Week 3

Our Survivor picks this year will be twofold. We’ll usually recommend two choices every week, a safe one and a not so safe one. The problem with playing the popular pick or the biggest point-spread favorite is that when that team loses, you go down with a high percentage of the pool and if they keep on winning all year, the pool will be split several ways. A mix of both and avoiding potential upsets is not a bad strategy either. One of our cardinal rules is to never play road teams because big road favs get beat too often and when one inevitably goes down, it will knock out a good percentage of participants and you don’t want to be one of them.

Week 1 safe pick – Buffalo √ ---- Week 1 not so safe pick – Minnesota √
Week 2 safe pick - Oakland √ ---- Week 1 not so safe pick – Oakland √

Week 3 safe pick – Green Bay over Cincinnati

Well, this week is interesting to be sure. There were virtually no upsets last week to speak of and therefore almost no Survivor players got knocked out. This week there figures to be some upsets, thus the safe pick that most will use is obviously New England. We’re in the gambling business so we’re going to avoid New England here and hope that the unthinkable happens and knocks out over 50% of the pool. Maybe, just maybe, Houston's very good defense makes life hell for Tom Brady. NE is very banged up and could get caught complacent here as a big fav. Remember, the Chiefs ran it down NE's throat and then their D did the rest. A similar game plan that is well executed and perhaps Houston can do the same. The Saints are so bad that they made New England look great again. Houston also has had 10 days to prepare and one cannot dismiss how difficult it is to prep for a QB that can run. Houston’s Deshaun Watson can run and now has a victory under his belt. New England looks like the easiest choice this week but we’re going to go to the next biggest favorite because Green Bay is coming off a bad loss so complacency is not in the cards. Green Bay at home has more appeal to us for the simple fact that a Houston victory, as unlikely as it is, knocks out a high percentage of the pool.

Week 3 not so safe pick - Tennessee over Seattle

There are 9 road favs this week and we have mentioned before that we do not play road chalk in Survivor Pools because they lose too often. Therefore Miami and Pittsburgh are both off limits. Philly and Carolina are both at home and they’re in the 6-point favorite range but they’re playing division rivals that are both 0-2. Not a good scenario to be backing either favorite. We’re therefore skipping over that pair and will take an AFC team to beat an NFC team. Tennessee is at home and has everything they need to take that next step. They have a QB, they have strong lines on both sides of the ball, they play good defense and they have playmakers while the 1-1 Seahawks have a horrible offensive line and their defense is spending way too much time on the field. The Titans have no excuses here.

Week 3 Survivor picks are Green Bay and Tennessee.

The Rest of the Games

Jacksonville +4 over Baltimore

There have been 18 games in London since the NFL began this series in 2007. A few have been competitive but it is interesting that all four were competitive last year. They occasionally have involved teams that went on to winning records and/or playoff berths. For the most part, however, the product the NFL has sent to its ravenous London fan base has hovered in an otherworld that is more appealing than, say, Week 4 of the preseason but something short of, well, the NFL RedZone channel.

At the end of the day, this is not about showcasing the NFL in England or seeing if the market could support a team there. It’s a big cash grab with an average of 83,00 fans showing up per game to spend British pounds. The NFL will NEVER have a team in London, at least not in our lifetime and we assure you that every team, player and coach hates going there to play a football game. It takes them out of routine, which is probably why so many games have been blowouts. Half of the games have been decided by one score, but the other half were blowouts to such an extent that the average final has been 32-17.

Handicapping games in London therefore becomes entirely different because you can’t apply the same theories. Tough-minded, unified teams with good leadership and a stronger commitment to values -- finishing, truly taking the schedule one week at a time, desire to achieve goals with a strong pedigree are better candidates to have a good week on the field. Joe Flacco and Blake Bortles are worlds apart when it comes to mental toughness and it’s not in Bortles favor. However, this is Baltimore’s first rodeo while it’s been an annual trip for the Jags and that surely matters. The Jags played in London in 2013, 2014, 2015 and 2016 while the Ravens have never played here before. Situations and preparations for those situations may come into play here, which is the only reason we’re leaning Jags but frankly speaking, we have no interest in watching or supporting the NFL’s decision to play this one at 9:30 AM EST. in the morning when they already have the population watching from 1:00 PM EST to 12:00 AM EST every Sunday. Play: Jacksonville +4 (No bets).

BUFFALO +150 over Denver SportsInteraction

Maybe the Broncos go into Buffalo and put forth another outstanding effort on both sides of the ball and put away the Buffalo Bills in impressive fashion just like they did against San Diego for three quarters in Week 1 and Dallas the entire game in Week 2. The Broncos dominating the Bills seems pretty reasonable, no? The Broncos winning by a FG or more seems even more reasonable, no? Of course it seems reasonable but the oddsmakers have posted a number that has upset written all over it and we pay much more attention to that than the X’s and O’s.

What we have here is a Denver team coming off a Monday night win in Week 1 over the Bolts. The final score was 24-21 for the Broncs but that’s a little misleading, as they led 24-7 late in the third quarter and they led 24-7 by the time most of this market went to sleep. In Week 2, on Fox Sports “Game of the Week”, Denver annihilated the Cowboys, 42-17. That was a resonating and very influential win. This market has watched a lot of the Broncos in two weeks and it would therefore be very difficult to bet against them, especially by taking a measly three points with a 1-1 team that beat the Jets and scored three points on the Panthers last week. There’s even more hype surrounding the Broncs with QB Trevor Siemian getting more praise than Tom Brady’s bounce-back win. Siemian dominated Dallas with a four-touchdown performance in that 42-17 win on Sunday. Add that to the Broncos incredible defense and their appeal this week is even stronger. To that we say, don’t get “trapped” into betting Denver and don’t overreact to the great exposure and press that they have received.

Let’s not dismiss the Broncos tremendous home-field advantage. Since 1977, Denver has the best home record in the NFL. Let’s not dismiss that Trevor Siemian won the QB job in preseason only because Paxton Lynch was so bad. Let’s not dismiss how difficult it is to win in Western New York. Buffalo’s defense looks very good thus far, especially the pass rush so don’t dismiss that either. The Bills sacked Panthers quarterback Cam Newton six times in Week 2 and they forced two interceptions against Josh McCown and the New York Jets in a 21-12 victory the week before. Buffalo’s defensive unit has yielded a 68.7 quarterback rating and has yet to allow a touchdown through the air but nobody is talking about that.

The Broncos are a little too high right now for a team that was projected to be around .500. They’re coming off two emotional and intense games against San Diego (on Monday Night Football) and Dallas and have the Raiders on deck next week in another high profile contest. Letdowns and upsets happen all the time in football and they often occur in these very difficult situations for the favorite. The Bills, in an extremely favorable spot, get this outright call. Play: Buffalo n+150 (No bets).

N.Y. Giants +6 over Philadelphia

The Eagles were shot down by the Chiefs 27-20 in Kansas City but anyone that wagered on the Chiefs know they dodged a bullet. That game was tied late in the fourth quarter and it looked almost certain that it was going to come down to a FG victory for one team or the other but a series of bizarre incidents led to three TD’s in the final five minutes. K.C. backers breathed a sigh of relief but Philadelphia absolutely gained the respect of the market if they hadn’t already with their win the week prior against Washington and we now get a pretty nice takeback on the dog here because of that great respect the Eagles earned last week. Had this game been played last week instead of this week, Philly would’ve been a -2 or -2½-point favorite and not -6. Furthermore, if the Giants had any respect in this market, they don’t anymore.

After two poor performances in two high-profile prime time games, we can understand that the Giants might not be an appealing choice here in Week 3. No team has been more visible to national audiences this season and therefore no other team has had its warts exposed to more people than the G-Men. We’re not here to make a case for the Giants based on their play; everyone has seen how bad they’ve been. The offense has only put up 13 points in two games and that has not gone unnoticed by the national pundits. Head coach Ben McAdoo didn’t help either when he used a delay of game penalty on 4th and goal from the one-yard line as his chance to rip quarterback Eli Manning. While Manning took responsibility, it should have been a non-story. Instead, it turns into easy fodder for the talking heads and in turn is one of several negatives being thrown at the Giants here. This is one of those bitter NFC East rival games that often come down to the wire. Whether that transpires again here remains to be seen but as value bettors that react to overreactions, we know we’re going with the best of it by recommending the Giants plus the points. Are we confident? Not really, thus, this one won’t make our slate. Play: N.Y. Giants +6 (No bets).

Cincinnati +9 over GREEN BAY Bet365

On paper, it’s near impossible to make a case for the Bengals. This is a stale team that has scored nine points in two weeks combined. The worst plays of Andy Dalton's putrid Week 1 performance were inexcusable and well-documented and that was his best game this year. His first interception of the year came on an underthrown ball over the middle. His second was an in-rhythm toss into double coverage. His fourth pick was a back-shoulder throw that Lardarius Webb snagged without even turning and the worst part was that all four came from clean pockets. After two weeks, Andy Dalton has zero TD passes and four picks with a QB rating of 47.2 In Week 2, Dalton was sacked five times.

The choice this week now becomes which team is worth backing more, the Bengals on the road with Andy Dalton quarterbacking or the Packers at Lambeau Field with Aaron Rodgers quarterbacking. You are likely going to hear and read all week about how the Bengals aren’t scoring and cannot keep pace with the Packers. That may be true but we’re in the buy low business and Cinci’s stock hasn’t been this low since their fans were showing up with bags over their heads. Those fans were known as two-baggers. They would show up to the games wearing two bags over their head, one to hide their face and the second bag was in case the first one ripped. The Bengals are now being offered at an inflated price that’s worth buying. They are not as bad as they look and will play this one after getting humiliated in a prime-time game 10 days prior to the start of this one.

Meanwhile, Green Bay was taken to school once again by Matt Ryan and the Dirty Birds. In Week 1, Green Bay easily defeated a Seattle team with no offense but perhaps what’s most important is that Green Bay is coming off the two highest profile games of the week. Seattle at Green Bay was the marquee matchup in Week 1 and Green Bay at Atlanta was the Sunday night marquee matchup in Week 2. The Pack have the Bears up in Week 4 but before that, they’re being asked to cover a big price against an embarrassed squad that is getting ripped apart in the media. A Bengals response and cover is more likely than not. Play: Cincinnati +9 (no bets).

L.A. CHARGERS +3 over Kansas City

A move to Los Angeles has not changed to the fortune of the Chargers. We almost felt bad for them as they played their “home” opener in front of just over 25,000 fans in a 27,000 seat soccer stadium at least half of which came out to cheer the visiting Dolphins. The Bolts are now 0-2 while every other team in the AFC West is 2-0. However, the box score doesn't always tell the whole story (as was the case for this team much of last season) and so that's why analytics become an important part of our research.

The Chargers/Dolphins game was the only contest from Week 2 where DVOA (a relevant metric that measures defense-adjusted value over average) numbers did not fall in line with the outcome of the game. The Chargers were 19.3% while Miami was a -28.7%, which is a huge discrepancy. L.A. was the better team on the field last Sunday. They outperformed the Fish in yards per offensive play (6.8 to 4.9), had more first downs (24-21), and even outscored Miami 14-9 in an equal number of trips to the red zone (three). What sunk the Changers on Sunday has been their Achilles Heel for years, the kicker. Younghoe Koo not only whiffed on the 44-yard kick that would have won the Bolts the game, but he also missed a 43-yarder earlier in the contest not to mention his flub on the game-tying kick in Week 1. L.A. has lost two games this season by a field goal or less, picking up right where they left off last year. They could be and probably should be 2-0 like the rest of the division.

The Chiefs are 2-0 and perhaps the hottest team in the market. They blasted the Patriots in front of the world to see to open the season and gutted out a tough home win and cover over the Eagles in Week 2. Alex Smith has seemingly shed his “game manager” moniker and is fifth in the league with 619 passing yards through two games. Running back Kareem Hunt is the hottest player in Fantasy Football and it appears head coach Andy Reid can do no wrong. Over the last two seasons, K.C. has become a team the market can trust and it's easy to see why. They are 7-0 against the spread in their last seven road games and 4-1 ATS overall. Covering weekly tends to influence the market and also puts fear into anyone that wants to fade the Chiefs.

The perception is the Chargers have no home field advantage and while that might be true, it's curious that this line opened with the mighty Chiefs as just a -2½ point favorite. When these two teams played last season in San Diego in Week 17, K.C. covered easily as a -5½ point favorite and although they were headed to the playoffs, they didn't have the hype train behind them like they do now. Now the books have hung some low-hanging fruit here and we’re urging you to proceed with extreme caution because unless Alex Smith rolls in missing a leg, this number stinks. Play San Diego +3 +102 (No bets)

N.Y. JETS -6 over Miami

The Dolphins start their season with a small upset win in Los Angeles over the Chargers and now are back at home to face the 0-2 Jets. The Fish swept the Jets last year. They won 34-13 in New York during Week 15 and 27-12 at home in Week 9, therefore, this one looks to be a good chance for the Fins to continue their dominance against an even worse Jets team.

Look it, everyone knows the story here. The Jets management ripped apart the roster in the offseason, starting a long-overdue youth movement that could take years to come to fruition. Considering the circumstances -- low expectations, 0-2 start, "Suck for Sam," etc. -- many fans already have checked out for the season and a good number won't show up at Met Life this week. Those who do will be conflicted, torn between idealism (always cheer for your team) and realism (2017 is hopeless and you want the No. 1 pick next spring). There will likely be as many Dolphins fans in the seats as there will be Jets fans.

We’re not going to break it down for you either. We’ll let Terry Bradshaw and other crews assure you that Miami will beat New York and will cover too. Not a single analyst on TV will pick the Jets. We’re not here to pick the Jets either but we also know that when something looks good or easy, it rarely is. As contrarian bettors that look for opportunity, we can’t get on board with playing the Jets but we can’t recommend the Dolphins either. In this day and age of internet wagering and teaser betting, the odds makers did not guard against the market teasing Miami down to win outright. Of course Miami can win going away here but New York will win between one and four games this year and this could be one of them. While Miami’s win last week was nice, Miami goes from being a 3½-point road dog to a 6-point road favorite in the span of a week. The Jets may be un-bettable but the Dolphins have done nothing to prove that they’re worthy of being priced in this range on the road. Play: N.Y. Jets +6 (No bets).

Dr Bob

Baltimore Ravens vs Jacksonville Jaguars

Jacksonville (+4) vs Baltimore (London)

The Jaguars played better than their 21-point deficit to the Titans last week would indicate, as my metrics say they should’ve only lost by 6. Jacksonville’s defense has been solid this season with new additions Calais Campbell and AJ Bouye (9th in my metrics) and I expect that to continue against a Baltimore attack ranking below average according to my model who has now lost Danny Woodhead and key offensive lineman Marshall Yanda to injury.

The Ravens have the second-best point differential in the NFL (+34) through two weeks but have been lucky to allow 0 points in their opponents 4 trips to the Redzone. Baltimore has also benefitted from their opponents converting only 20% of 3rd downs against them – even the best defenses surrender about 35% of 3rd downs over the course of a season. I’m passing this game.

Cleveland Browns @ Indianapolis Colts

Lean – INDIANAPOLIS (+1.5) over Cleveland

This game will be decided by two young quarterbacks with little starting experience. Thus far in their careers, Jacoby Brissett has greatly outperformed DeShone Kizer – mainly due to Kizer’s near 7% interception rate. Brissett and Kizer have both relied on their feet with career scramble rates of 19% and 14% respectively.

Despite losing by two touchdowns last week, the Browns outgained the Ravens by 0.8 yards-per-play and, if it weren’t for 5 turnovers, Cleveland may have won that game. However, rookie quarterbacks tend to throw interceptions and it’s tough to trust Kizer until he proves to be less careless with his decision making.

Cleveland certainly does appear to be improved and the Colts have struggled without star quarterback Andrew Luck, but the Browns are a road favorite for only the 4th time in the last decade and Indy applies to a 67-20-1 ATS contrary indicator.

Pittsburgh Steelers @ Chicago Bears

CHICAGO (+7) vs Pittsburgh

There was value on Chicago heading into the season and I won my best bet on them in week 1, as they came within 5 yards from beating Atlanta. However, after playing so well against the Falcons the Bears have been priced like a team expected to win a full game more than their preseason win total in weeks 2 & 3 and the value no longer exists.

The Bears rely on their rushing attack led by a strong offensive line but they were forced to move away from the ground game after falling behind by double digits in the first quarter against the Buccaneers in week 2. That game would’ve been much closer if Chicago didn’t turn the ball over four times – one of which was returned for a touchdown and another was an inexplicable fumble on a Tarik Cohen punt return to set up Tampa’s offense in the Redzone.

Pittsburgh is coming off a convincing home win against the Bradford-less Vikings where their defense took care of business. Still, the Steelers offense has looked poor through two weeks ranking 25th in the NFL according to my metrics. Pittsburgh’s rush offense ranks last and the Steelers will need improve their rushing attack if they hope to get the offense going this season. I expect both Pittsburgh and Chicago to look to establish the run early in this game and the team that has success doing so is likely to cover. But, I have no opinion at the current line.

Miami Dolphins @ New York Jets

Lean – NEW YORK JETS (+6) over Miami

The Dolphins were outgained by almost 2 yards per play against the Chargers in week 2 and my numbers say the Chargers should’ve won by nearly 9 points. Miami was able to come out victorious due to a significant edge in special teams as Miami made 4 of 4 field goals, including a 54-yarder, while the Chargers missed 2 field goals including what would have been the game-winning attempt in the final seconds.

The Jets are a bad team but they weren’t as bad last week as the 45-20 score against the Raiders indicates. My metrics show the Jets played about 10 points better than the final score of that game and Josh McCown actually played pretty well with 2 touchdowns and 0 interceptions.

Preseason implied wins would have made this game MIA -6 and I haven’t seen anything from these two teams to change preseason expectations. While there is no line value in this game I do lean with the Jets on a basis of a 118-65-1 ATS situation that plays on home underdogs of more than 3 points that lost the previous week by 24 points or more. I’d consider the Jets a Strong Opinion if the line gets up to +7 points

Denver Broncos @ Buffalo Bills

Lean Under (40) – BUFFALO (+3) vs Denver

As discussed last week in our Strong Opinion on Denver, the Broncos have an advantage playing at home in high altitude early in the season when conditioning of their opponents isn’t as good as it is later in the season. Denver certainly benefitted from their altitude advantage as opponents in starting the season 2-0 with wins over the Chargers and Cowboys. The Broncos have a point differential of +28 and my numbers show them as the top performers so far this season. Denver’s 5th ranked defense may not be a surprise but their 3rd ranked offense is certainly much higher than preseason expectations. As I mentioned though, I think opposing defenses have been tiring out in the altitude on these long Broncos drives. These tired defenses have shown in the numbers as Denver has scored a touchdown on every trip to the Redzone this year, which is something that surely will not continue.

Buffalo was a dropped pass away at the end of the game from winning in Carolina last week but my metrics show they were outplayed – the Bills never even got the ball into the Redzone. Buffalo’s offense will need to improve if they hope to get back in the win column in week 3 but the Bills have less weapons on offense this season and I certainly don’t expect them to be as good offensively as they were last season. The Bills still have a solid defense and I will lean with the Under in this game.

Houston Texans @ New England Patriots

NEW ENGLAND (-13.5) vs Houston

The overreaction to Houston’s disappointing week 1 performance went too far and I won my week 2 Best Bet as the Texans beat the Bengals outright as a 6.5-point underdog last week. The market has moved them back closer to preseason expectations as my ratings make the Patriots a 12.5 point favorite.

New England’s offense turned it around from their week 1 performance by putting up 36 points in New Orleans. However, the status of Rob Gronkowski will be something to monitor going forward. Gronk has been Tom Brady’s most effective receiver by far since coming into the league – he has gained nearly 0.2 points per target more than any other Patriot in that time span, which works out to a couple of points per game. I have no opinion on this game.

New Orleans Saints @ Carolina Panthers

Lean Under (46.5) – CAROLINA (-5.5) vs New Orleans

This game will feature the league’s top performing defense against its worst performing defense. The Panthers have only allowed 6 points in their first two games, while the Saints have allowed 65 points. However, I see some room for improvement in the Saints defense because they’ve been unlucky to surrender a whopping 58% of 3rd downs conversions – I expect that percentage to be more like 45% moving forward.

Carolina’s offense has been about 5 points worse than average so that unit also struggled last season, so I don’t expect the Panthers to take full advantage of the Saints’ defensive issues. New Orleans’ offense has been roughly 7 points better than average thus far but they’re at a disadvantage against this menacing Panthers’ defense. The last four games in this divisional series have been decided by less than a touchdown and it should be another good game on Sunday. I lean Under.

Kansas City Chiefs @ Los Angeles Chargers

Lean – LOS ANGELES CHARGERS (+3) over Kansas City

The Chiefs basically played the Eagles to a stalemate last week after a very impressive week 1 performance in New England. Philadelphia outgained Kansas City but was only able to score touchdowns on 2 of their 5 trips to the Redzone. The Kansas City offense has ranked in the top 10 both weeks thus far according to my numbers and much of that success is due to the deep ball. However, contrary to popular belief, Alex Smith hasn’t been much more aggressive than usual this season (14th in attempts of more than 20 yards) – but he has been very accurate and leads the league in deep passing yards.

The Chargers somehow found a way to lose another close game despite out-gaining the Dolphins by almost 2 yards per play. Philip Rivers looked good coming off a tough week 1 matchup in Denver, shredding the Dolphins for nearly 8 yards per pass play. The Los Angeles run game remains a problem, as my numbers have the Chargers rushing offense ranked 30th and Melvin Gordon can’t seem to get it going despite his head coach, Anthony Lynn, being a former NFL running back and a running backs coach for the previous 13 years of his career.

The Chargers have been much better than their record since the beginning of last season, as they’re actually an average team that has been unlucky to lose nearly every close game that they’re in. That can’t go on forever and I see a bit of value with the Chargers at +3 or more.

Cincinnati Bengals @ Green Bay Packers

Lean – Cincinnati (+8.5) over GREEN BAY

I won both my best bets on last week’s Thursday night game – HOU +6.5 and Under 38. One of the reasons for making those plays was Andy Dalton’s inability to make plays under pressure. The Bengals have one of the worst offensive lines in the league this year and Dalton ranked 7th amongst QBs when facing no pressure but ranked just 25th passing while under pressure in 2016, according to Football Outsiders. Last season, the Packers defense ranked better in pressure rate than both Baltimore and Houston, Dalton’s first two opponents, and Dom Capers is a master at disguising his blitzes.

My model has Green Bay’s expected point differential at +10 after two games against top NFC competition. However, the Packers have actually had a negative point differential thus far, which would usually be a flag for some value – but the market has virtually no confidence left in Andy Dalton and the spread on this game is actually a bit higher than it should be.

While I don’t like the match-up for Cincinnati, I do lean with the Bengals on the basis of a 53-17-3 ATS week 3 contrary indicator that is based on the Bengals’ poor performance to date.

Randall The Handle

BEST BETS

Ravens (2-0) vs. Jaguars (1-1) at London, England

Calm down folks. Yes, Baltimore’s defence has started out well allowing just 10 points combined in first two games. However, when you begin the season against the bungling Bengals and the bumbling Browns, comparisons to the Ray Lewis led Ravens’ teams of yesteryear are misdirected. Granted, the Jaguars aren’t exactly known for their offensive prowess with bottom-tier QB Blake Bortles and Jacksonville’s most productive receiver gone for the year. Still, the Ravens do not deserve to be a four-point pick on this neutral field. Jacksonville would seem to have an advantage here in London having won its past two contests played in England. This will be Baltimore’s first time experiencing Europe. Combine this unfamiliar trip along with a return home to host arch-rival Steelers next week and we wouldn’t be surprised to catch the Ravens distracted this week. Expect a low-scorer and a Jags cover. TAKING: JAGUARS +4

Browns (0-2) at Colts (0-2)

Is there a bigger insult than being a home underdog to the Browns? This is a Cleveland team that hasn’t won a road game since October 2015. That’s how troubled the Colts are. Don’t let last week’s near miss vs. visiting Arizona fool you. Yes, Jacoby Brissett was better than dreadful Scott Tolzien but Brissett’s line was not one to be fearful of after the New England castoff threw for 216 yards, no touchdowns and one interception while completing an underwhelming 54% of his passes. In fact, Brissett has yet to throw a touchdown pass in his brief NFL career after 95 pass attempts without one. Cleveland brings much more to the table with a solid offensive line and improving defence that can pressure Brisset. One of these teams gets in the win column here and we highly doubt it will be the host. TAKING: BROWNS –1½

Bengals (0-2) at Packers (1-1)

The back and forth nature of the NFL has us giving Cincinnati a decent look here. First off, team’s rarely lay offensive eggs three weeks running and after scoring a total of nine points overall in first two games and then replacing their offensive coordinator, we expect a better showing here. Aside from Cincy’s ineptitude thus far, we’re not so sure that the Packers are all that dangerous in their current form. As many as eight regulars are hurting and did not practice early in the week. Green Bay is also thin on its offensive line with some new guys blocking for Aaron Rodgers while other starters are out. The Packers are smarting after being beat nationally by the Falcons (for third straight time) and they have a short week as they host division Bears on Thursday. Defeating Seattle in Week 1 was nice but with Seahawks offensive woes, is the credibility there? Suicide poolsters, be careful here. TAKING: BENGALS +9

THE REST

Steelers (2-0) at Bears (0-2)

The oddsmaker is no dummy and knowing the admiration that exists for the Steelers, he’ll frequently jack up their price. This prime example has 2-0 Pittsburgh facing 0-2 Chicago with the Bears coming of a 29-7 shellacking to the Bucs. Stand at a betting a window and see how many pundits are asking for Chicago here. But those that are willing will receive some outstanding value. You see, the Steelers aren’t so hot away from Heinz Field. Did you see Pittsburgh sneak by the lowly Browns by a narrow 21-18 in Cleveland in Week 1? By the same token, Bears are best as hosts, 5-1-1 last seven as home dog including near upset of Falcons in Week 1. Chicago can play some defence and Ben is prone to mistakes when traveling. TAKING: BEARS +7

Dolphins (1-0) at Jets (0-2)

We assume that the Jets will cover somewhere along the line, likely as a double-digit dog to a favourite that is sleepwalking through its game against this horrendous club. In this price range however, against an underrated Miami team, we simply cannot endorse the home underdog. Miami will be paying attention. It’s only their second game of the year and after a somewhat fortunate win last week at the Chargers, the Fish will gladly take no prisoners after applying a full effort. QB Jay Cutler was solid in his debut with the Fins and as the game progressed, he developed a rapport with new mates. Now with RB Jay Ajayi pounding an already tired Jets defence, Cutler should have plenty of time and opportunity to flaunt his wares. TAKING: DOLPHINS -6

Broncos (2-0) at Bills (1-1)

Look aheads can often be trouble in the National Football League. They are double the trouble when the less relevant game comes after a high profile win. The Broncos find themselves in this classic sandwich spot as they just pulverized the favoured Cowboys at Mile High and they will return to Denver next week only to face off against talented division rival Raiders. In addition, this will be the Broncos’ only road game in four weeks. The only thing that prevents us from elevating this game to a BEST BET is the ineptitude of Buffalo’s offence. Denver still sports a top defence and the Bills will be pressed to stay close even if the visitor is disinterested. Still, Buffalo a tough out at home and this situation demands an endorsement. TAKING: BILLS +3

Houston (1-1) at New England (1-1)

Can’t expect Tom Brady to duplicate stats from last week’s pounding of the defenceless Saints versus decent Houston defence but the trouble for the Texans is that they won’t come close to matching any offensive output that Brady produces. Houston has one of the five worst offensive units in the league with only DeAndre Hopkins being a top graded skill position player. Double-team Hopkins and the day is done for this woeful Houston offence. Rookie QB Deshaun Watson will make his first road start. Nothing like doing it in Foxboro. We got to view Watson in win over Bengals last Thursday. Despite the victory, the neophyte pivot was nowhere close to NFL ready. He gets further schooled on this day. TAKING: PATRIOTS –13½

Saints (0-2) at Panthers (2-0)

Drew Brees is not getting the protection he needs. He also doesn’t have the weapons he’s had in the recent past. New Orleans’ defence was supposed to be improved over the ghastly group that has taken the field the past couple of years. In the early going, this defence is the worst of all, surrendering an ungodly 512 yards per game. The best hope for the visitor is that Cam Newton continues to struggle as he has so far but we’re inclined to think that even Cam can exploit this leaky bunch. Also note that Saints head to London after this one and for whatever reason, teams jetting off to England have covered just 11 of 34 in game prior to departure. TAKING: PANTHERS -6

Falcons (2-0) at Lions (2-0)

The public gets enamoured with teams that score a lot of points so it comes as no surprise that the point producing Falcons are favoured here. With the line designed to draw equal action on both sides, and not as any type of result predictor, the pointspread here seems fair. For our purposes however, it provides value. Popularity removed, the Lions should not be underdogs here. They keep on winning as they are undefeated in two games this season while sporting a 10-3 mark in previous 13 played on this field. QB Matthew Stafford is in fine form (tied for league lead in touchdown passes) and Atlanta’s generous defence should allow for success. Where Detroit has really upped its game is on defence, already with six sacks, three forced fumbles and four interceptions. TAKING: LIONS +3

Giants (0-2) at Eagles (1-1)

The Giants have lost two in a row to start the year so everybody is down on them. It’s fair considering New York’s issues on offence where Eli Manning is getting hit more than golf balls at the driving range. However, this matchup bodes well for the visitor. Neither team is able to run the ball and if both must rely on a passing game, prefer experienced arm of Manning and G-Men’s stingy secondary to that of Philadelphia’s thrower and defence. This price also seems a bit awkward as this divisional matchup has not seen either club more than a 3½-point choice over the other in previous six clashes. Is the disparity between these two suddenly so great as to inflate this line to a near touchdown? We hardly think so. TAKING: GIANTS +6

Seahawks (1-1) at Titans (1-1)

The Seahawks have been plagued by a weak offensive line since the beginning of last year and until Seattle does something about it, they are difficult to trust against any half decent team. Heck, they almost lost to a poor 49ers team last week. Russell Wilson’s group has managed just 21 points until now, most of it coming on field goals while Wilson has averaged less than 180 passing per game. Seattle has one passing touchdown and zero rushing majors to this point. These Titans are no slouches. A loss to Oakland may have affected their market appeal but Tennessee is a sound team with good players on both side of ball. Seahawks have been bankroll busters on the road recently, having failed to cover in past five when travelling. TAKING: TITANS -2½

Chiefs (2-0) at Chargers (0-2)

Tough to buck the Chiefs right now as they’ve opened the year with consecutive wins while riding a seven-game winning streak on the road. Same can’t be said of these Chargers, a team that has become synonymous with hard-luck losses, dropping two toughies already this season after similar story a year ago. Adding to Los Angeles’ troubles, the Bolts have lost six straight to these unfriendly division mates. The Chargers also are not inspired by small home crowd which they claim is half filled with opposing team’s fans. So why the short price here? We can best attribute it to the Chargers fondness for close games. Chargers two losses have been by a combined five points. Since the beginning of last season, Bolts have lost seven times despite leading in the fourth quarter. This could be another field goal game. TAKING: CHARGERS +3

Raiders (2-0) at Redskins (1-1)

Dating back to last season, the Raiders are on the move and it’s good to see after spending 15 years in football’s abyss. To the victors go the spoils and as a result of Oakland’s recent success, the Raiders have been awarded a Sunday night feature game in the nation’s capital. As profitable as Oakland has been during this stretch, the Redskins have quietly been lucrative themselves with an 11-5 against the spread (ATS) mark in previous 16 games. Just as impressive is the ’Skins 6-1 ATS in past seven games against teams with a winning record. Washington may have found its mojo last week when three different runners were able to gain 67 or more yards. Home points with better defensive club works for us here. TAKING: REDSKINS +3

Cowboys (1-1) at Cardinals (1-1)

The Cardinals have lulled everyone to sleep after a pair of lackluster efforts in first two with last week’s narrow win over hapless Colts being most alarming. Expect a bounce back as Arizona returns to the desert for home debut and on a Monday night to boot. The Cowboys are hurting at various positions and this after looking less than ordinary after drubbing in Denver last week. Dallas’ strong offensive line from a year ago took a hit this offseason and is not nearly as effective as it was in 2016. Ezekiel Elliot is putting up pedestrian numbers so far and Dallas’ secondary was exposed as the suspect unit many had identified. Cowboys have now lost four straight on road along with just two covers in past nine games overall. They hardly deserve to be chalk in this one. TAKING: CARDINALS +3

Xpert Picks

Buffalo +3

Denver has lost 51 of the last 91 games against the spread coming off a non-conference game and they have lost 41 of the last 72 games against the spread when playing on artificial turf. Denver has lost 70 of the last 131 games against the spread coming off a win by ten points or more in their last game and they have lost 7 of the last 10 games against the spread vs. Buffalo.

Oakland -3

Washington has lost 113 of the last 196 home games against the spread and they have lost 49 of the last 83 games against the spread when playing in the month of September. Washington has lost 52 of the last 91 non-conference games against the spread and they have lost 88 of the last 163 games against the spread when the line posted is between +3 to -3.

Winning Angle

Jacksonville +3.5

Jacksonville has covered the spread in 10 of the last 14 games when playing as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points and they have covered the spread in two consecutive games when playing on a neutral field. Jacksonville has covered the spread in 14 of the last 24 games vs. AFC Conference Opponents and they have covered the spread in 4 of the last 6 games coming off a division loss in their last game.

Buffalo +3

Buffalo has covered the spread in 42 of the last 66 home games when the total posted is between 38.5 and 42 points and they have covered the spread in 62 of the last 107 games coming off a road loss in their last game. Buffalo has covered the spread in 48 of the last 84 games when playing in the month of September and they are only allowing an average of 10 points a game on defense this season.

Houston +13.5

Houston has covered the spread in 62 of the last 116 games coming off an UNDER the total in their last game and they have covered the spread in 36 of the last 57 games after scoring 14 points or less in their last game.

Cincinnati +8.5

Cincinnati has covered the spread in 10 of the last 15 road games and they have covered the spread in 5 of the last 6 games coming off two or more losses. Cincinnati has covered the spread in three consecutive games after scoring 17 points or less in two straight games and they have covered the spread in 7 of the last 10 games when playing on a natural grass field.

The Sports Capper

Miami -6

New York has lost 57 of the last 86 games when playing as a home underdog and they have lost 111 of the last 191 games coming off an OVER the total in their last game. New York has lost 48 of the last 77 games after allowing 30 points or more in their last game and they have lost 119 of the last 207 games coming off a loss in their last game.

Pittsburgh -7

Pittsburgh has won 71 of the last 107 games coming off a win by 14 points or more in their last game and they have won 135 of the last 174 games when playing as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points. Pittsburgh has won 77 of the last 110 games when the total posted is between 42.5 and 49 points and they have won 103 of the last 158 games after allowing 14 points or less in their last game.

Tony Finn

Raiders at Redskins
Play: Raiders -3

Oakland travels three time zones for a primetime event in Washington on FedEx Field. Kickoff is scheduled for 8:30 p.m. ET and the Sunday Night Football contest will be broadcast on NBC Sports.

Raiders quarterback Derek Carr and his Oakland teammates were Super Bowl contenders a season ago and with offseason upgrades and a 2-0 start to the 2017 campaign expectations are as optimistic if not higher than they were last year. And injury to Carr killed the Raiders chances of advancing beyond the Wild Cards game in Houston but with a healthy field general behind center the team is the best of the AFC West.

There have been a handful of talented young quarterbacks in this league that began their careers losing their first 10 starts or more but went on to successful NFL tenures. Carr is one of those. The Oakland signal caller is making his 50th NFL start on Sunday night in the nation's capital and does so with talented receivers, a ground and pound veteran running back and the AFC defensive player of the year.

Oakland is 2-0 with a eastern time zone win already in their pocket when they defeated the Tennessee Titans in Nashville in Week #1. They followed that victory with a Week #2 drubbing over the least of the AFC, the New York Jets, at the Coliseum.

Washington wasn't good in their season opening loss to divisional foe Philadelphia and escaped Los Angeles last Sunday with a fortunate victory over the Rams.

The addition of Marshawn Lynch to the Raiders offense makes them head and shoulders more balanced and better than they were in 2016. That is saying a lot considering Oakland ranked in the Top-10 in points per game and fourth in the AFC behind only New England, Indianapolis and the then San Diego Chargers in 2016.

Carr and Lynch combine with former No. 4 overall pick wide out Amari Cooper, as well, veteran WR Michael Crabtree and All-Everything defensive end Khalil Mack with the aim of having a deep postseason run in 2018.

The offseason drama in Washington was centered around quarterback Kirk Cousins. Would the organization trade him, tag him or negotiate a new deal for the signal caller that threw for nearly 5,000 yards a season ago? This past summer's roster transactions took a toll on the 'Skins offense. The team lost their two top receivers, via free agency, and are using former quarterback Terrelle Pryor alongside Jamison Crowder as the primary targets for Cousins.

While there are a handful of new offensive players learning HC Jay Gruden's playbook it is the team's injuries that are most alarming heading into the Week #3 Sunday Night event.

Talented tight end Jordan Reed and starting running back Rob Kelley are both questionable to assist Cousins and the offense against the potent Raiders. And defensively the Redskins could be missing All-Pro cornerback Josh Norman on Sunday night after injuring his shoulder in the victory over the Rams.

MIKE LUNDIN

Cleveland at Indianapolis
Play: Cleveland -125

The Cleveland Browns won just one game all of last season and they're heading into Week 3 of the current season still eyeing their first win. The Indianapolis Colts are in the same spot after back-to-back losses to the Rams and the Cardinals, but I think the Browns will be the team to come out of this contest with the W.

The Colts failed to hold onto a 13-3 fourth quarter lead in a tough 16-13 overtime home loss to the Cardinals last weekend. They'll once again be without QB Andrew Luck and his replacement Jacoby Brissett completed just 20-of-37 passes for 216 yards with no touchdowns and one interception against Arizona. They couldn't get their running game going either as the team amassed just a total of 76 yards on 29 carries Here they'll face a Cleveland D that has held two tough opponents in Pittsburgh and Baltimore to an average of 313.5 yards per game on the season.

The Browns actually outgained the Ravens 386-337 in last week's 24-10 defeat but gave away the ball way to easy and five turnovers ruined any chance of winning the game. Starting QB DeShone Kizer threw three picks before leaving the game with migraine, but I expect the rookie to be healthy for this game do much better.

Cleveland has not been favored on the road since giving five points at Jacksonville back in 2014. The books have made the Browns a favorite here for a reason, and I'm backing the Browns to win outright.

DARRYL TUCHOLSKI

Cleveland at Indianapolis
Play: Cleveland -130

The Colts let the Cardinals linger last week, eventually costing themselves the game in overtime 16-13. Cleveland will be able to establish the run, meaning Crowell should carry this game, the Browns defense should have no issues limiting the Colts.

JACK JONES

Cleveland at Indianapolis
Play: Cleveland -1.5

The Cleveland Browns are clearly improved this season despite their 0-2 start. They were competitive against two of the best teams in the NFL in the Steelers and Ravens. They were only outgained by four total yards in those two games combined, so statistically they hung right with them.

The problem with the Browns thus far has been turnovers and special teams mistakes. They committed five turnovers against the Ravens, yet still had numbers chances to cover the spread as 8-point dogs in a 14-point loss. They only lost by 3 to the Steelers, and the difference in that game was a punt block that was returned for a TD by the Steelers.

Now the Browns will be motivated for a rare victory here against arguably the worst team in the NFL in the Indianapolis Colts. The Colts are 0-2 and haven't even been competitive despite playing weaker competition. They were outgained by 148 yards in their 9-46 loss to the Rams. Then they were outgained by a depleted Cardinals team by 123 yards last week in a game they did not deserve to go to overtime against. That games was a bigger blowout than the final score. The Rams and Cardinals aren't as good as the Steelers and Ravens, which is a key points here.

The Browns have the better defense, and it's not really even close. They are giving up just 313 yards per game and 5.3 per play thus far, while the Colts are allowing 381 yards per game and 6.1 per play. The Browns are averaging 311 yards per game and 5.3 per play on offense, so they have moved the ball fine. The Colts are only averaging 245 yards per game and 4.4 per play. So the Browns are basically dead even in yards per game and yards per play on the season, while the Colts are getting outgained by 136 yards per game and 1.7 yards per play.

Indianapolis is 2-11 ATS in its last 13 home games after scoring 14 points or less in two straight games. Plays on road teams (CLEVELAND) - off a loss against a division rival, first month of the season, after closing out last season with 6 or more losses in last 8 games are 51-24 (68%) ATS since 1983. The Browns are 19-6-1 ATS in their last 26 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.