Wunderdog
Miami vs. New York
Pick: New York +7
The Miami Dolphins escaped LA with a 19-17 win over the snake bit Chargers, who continue to lose close game after close game. This one was a missed field goal as time expired. The Jets will be home after a pair of road disasters, which have them at 0-2 to open the season. Miami is getting way to much respect here, with a backup QB, and on the road while the Jets are in the disrespect column for most bettors, but this is a contrarian league. The Dolphins resume against New York isn't exactly pretty as they own a 17-36-3 ATS mark in the last 56 meetings, and just 4-8 ATS here as a road favorite, which includes 0-3 ATS when the line is -6 or higher. This is a division game and way too many points, especially this early in the season. Miami has never played well in the role of a favorite at just 46-68 ATS in their last 114. I'm going to grab the points in this one play on the NY Jets.
Ray Monohan
Cleveland at Indianapolis
Play: Cleveland -1.5
It's extremely rare for the Browns to be a road favorite. However, in this spot, they are worth a move.
Cleveland has looked much better through the first two games than they have in previous seasons. The defense is actually playing with some passion and drive as they've been able to keep Cleveland close in both games. Allowing just 22.5 points through the first two, this defense will see a Colts offense without Andrew Luck, a huge plus.
The Colts offense is averaging just 11.0 points and they haven't had any sort of consistency or success when it comes to throwing or running the ball. That is a huge red flag entering here, especially given how swarming this Cleveland defense has been.
Some trends to note. Colts are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. Colts are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 vs. AFC.
While it's quite a different feeling to lay points with this Browns team, the Colts are simply bad without Luck in the backfield.
Scott Rickenbach
Steelers vs. Bears
Play: Bears +7½
Nice home dog spot for the Bears here. They catch the Steelers off of a win and cover against Vikings team without QB Sam Bradford. Also, Pittsburgh has their biggest rival, Baltimore, on deck. That makes this a "sandwich spot" for the Steelers as they were up for their home opener against Minnesota last week and they have a tough road trip to face the Ravens up next. The Bears were a turnover machine last week and that gave them no chance for success at Tampa Bay. However, at home in Week 1, Chicago truly played a solid game and gave the defending NFC Champion Falcons a run for their money. With that cover, the Bears are a solid 5-1-1 ATS the last 7 times they've been a home dog. I like them again here to get the job done in that role.
Cappers Club
Falcons vs. Lions
Play: Over 50½
The Falcons and the Lions face off on Sunday and with two explosive offenses, this game is going to be a shootout.
Both of these teams average over 28 points per game on this young season, and with two explosive quarterbacks this might be a race to the first team to 40 points.
Both of these defenses have looked decent so far this year, but the Lions especially haven't played a quarterback like Matt Ryan.
I think he will have no issues picking apart their defense. There will be very little defense played in this game.
Some trends to note. Over is 13-2-1 in Falcons last 16 vs. NFC. Over is 4-1 in Lions last 5 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
Joseph D'Amico
Seahawks vs. Titans
Play: Seahawks +3
The Seattle OL has been read the riot act by HC, Pete Carroll. So look for a much-improved performance this week. Quick-footed, Russell Wilson has a solid ball-carrier in RB, Chris Carson to keep the Tennessee defense honest as he will get the passing game going and take advantage of a Titans secondary without Safety, Jonathan Cyprien. Tennessee's Derrick Henry and DeMarco Murray have to deal with a ferocious, front-7 of Seattle and a defense that is yielding just 13.0 PPG. The 'dog in this series is 6-0 ATS the L6 meetings. The Seahawks are 7-0 ATS the L7 games played in Week 3 while the Titans are 7-22-2 ATS their L31 games played at home.
Scott Spreitzer
Ravens vs. Jaguars
Play: Jaguars +3½
The UK has adopted the Jaguars as their unofficial team and Jacksonville has responded the last two years winning and covering both games (2-2 overall). They beat the Bills 34-31 two years ago as a 3 1/2 point underdog and beat Indy last season 30-27 as a 1 point underdog. While there are some new faces, the Jags understand what it takes to prep for this trip. Neither team gets next week off, which is tough scheduling, but while the Jags have the Jets up next, you can forgive the Ravens if their minds are looking ahead just a bit to a divisional rivalry clash with hated Pittsburgh. Baltimore is off to a 2-0 start, but against weak opposition. They haven't had to test deep waters, ranked 31st in yards passing per game, but we expect the Ravens to have to put the ball in the air more this week. Jacksonville has been strong against the run thus far, and they have run the ball well on offense, ranked 9th in the league on the ground. While it's a short sample size the Jags have covered four of their last five since last season and they have covered four straight in this series. Jacksonville lost 19-17 but covered a 3 point spread last season after winning 22-20 as a 5 point dog in 2015.
Dennis Macklin
Saints vs. Panthers
Play: Saints +6
The Saints are watching their season circle the drain after their 0-2 start and the urgency will be amplified here with a trip to face the Dolphins in London on deck. Its same ole, same ole for the Whodats who was supposed to be much improved on defense but have already allowed 65 points, 52 FDs, and 1075 yards in the first two games. That said, Cam is far from 100% and unable to play with the reckless abandon that made him so effective two years ago. The Panther defense is yet to give up a touchdown but this is Drew Brees, not Brian Hoyer. New Orleans is a perfect 9-0 L9 as a division dog and has covered the last four in the series.
Marc Lawrence
Texans vs. Patriots
Play:Texans +14½
Edges - Texans: 4-0 ATS away versus a foe off an away game… Patriots: 2-13-2 ATS as home favorites with a .500 or less record following a previous home loss under Bill Belichick. With the Texans owning 195 YPG the better defense and playing with double revenge from a pair of losses suffered to New England, including a playoff loss, we recommend a 1* play on the Texans.
John Martin
Dolphins vs. Jets
Play: Jets +6½
Just plug your nose and back the New York Jets and thank your bankroll after. It's not going to be the popular side, but I think it is the right side Sunday. Nobody wants to touch the Jets after their 0-2 SU & 0-2 ATS start. But keep in mind they have played both games on the road at Buffalo and at Oakland. Now they have their first home game and will be fired up for it. The Miami Dolphins are a bottom half of the league team, but since they beat the Chargers last week, they are getting some respect. They shouldn't be because the Chargers basically handed them the game. And this is an awful traveling spot for the Dolphins. They spent last week out in California, then they traveled back to Miami this week. Now they'll have to travel up to New York. That's a lot of time spent on an airplane. I don't think we see the Dolphins' best game here because of it. The Jets are a live dog this week.
Jimmy Boyd
Saints vs. Panthers
Play: Saints +6
I like the value here with New Orleans catching almost a touchdown on the road against division rival Carolina. The value here comes from the Saints being 0-2 and the Panthers sitting at 2-0. I also think people look at how bad New Orleans' defense has been and how good Carolina's stop unit has played and just assume this will be a blowout.
The thing is the Panthers offense has not looked good in their first two games. Carolina only managed 287 yards against the 49ers in Week 1, which looks a lot worse after what the Rams did to San Francisco on Thursday. They then could only manage 3 field goals against a Bills defense that was on the field all day. Another note from that game is Cam Newton was sacked 6 times and lost his favorite target in tight end Greg Olson for the season.
I just don't think they are going to pick apart this New Orleans defense like a lot of people are saying. These are two division rivals that know each other well. At the same time, Brees and company can score on anybody and Carolina hasn't faced a passing attack this year any where close to the Saints, having gone up against Brian Hoyer and a Tyrod Taylor.
Saints are 19-8 ATS in their last 27 as a dog of 3.5 to 9.5 under head coach Sean Payton. They are also 15-6 ATS in 21 games under Payton after 2 straight losses. Carolina is also just 2-6-1 ATS in their last 9 off a win, 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games and 1-5 ATS in their last 6 against division opponents.
Chase Diamond
Broncos vs. Bills
Play: Bills +3½
This game features the 2-0 Broncos and the 1-1 Bills. I love fading teams from the west coast playing at 1pm and will do so today. The Bills are off a tough road loss and the Broncos have a huge division clash with the Raiders on deck. I expect the Broncos to come out slow and this to be a tough game that comes down to a FG either way love the points here. Bills are 8-2 80% ATS when getting less then 250 years in their previous game. 82% of the public have bet the road Broncos making me love the Bills even more. Bills win outrite but take the points.
Carlo Campanella
Ravens vs. Jaguars
Play: Jaguars +3½
Jacksonville faces an unbeaten 2-0 Ravens squad in London on Sunday morning. Jacksonville looked great winning Week 1 when beating Houston, 29-7, but fell apart last week vs Tennessee. Expect them to rebound with a winning effort across the pound knowing that 1st year HC Doug Marrone is 9-1 ATS off a loss when facing an opponent off a win. Baltimore is 2-0 but defeated division rivals Cleveland and CincinnatI, who are a winless 0-4 combined this year. Take the points with Jacksonville as they're 5-1 ATS in their last six meeting with these Ravens, including a late 19-17 loss just last year.
Chip Chirimbes
Ravens vs. Jaguars
Play: Jaguars +3½
Baltimore's defense has been better then ever forcing 10 turnovers in their first two games including four interceptions in each of their two wins. Jacksonville opened the season with a winning 10-sack performance against Houston but fell back into old habits as Blake Bortles had three turnovers (2 Int's). This will be the fifth straight season that the Jaguars will be playing in London while it is the first for the Ravens. Last season their two played to a standstill until Justin Tucker hit a 54-yard field goal with under a minute to play. The fact that Jacksonville has had the over the sea experience while it is a first for Baltimore who will meet their bitter rival Pittsburgh next week.
Sean Murphy
Falcons vs. Lions
Play: Under 51
Here we have a matchup of two teams that are known for their offenses but on Sunday, I'm anticipating a lower-scoring game than the oddsmakers are anticipating.
The Falcons bounced back from an uneven opening week offensive performance against the Bears by lighting up the Packers in front of a national audience last Sunday night. I'm not expecting Matt Ryan and company to enjoy the same level of success against an upstart Lions defense on Sunday afternoon.
On the flip side, the Lions are off to a somewhat surprising 2-0 start (although we've won with them in each of the last two weeks). They are in tough this week, however, even with the Falcons missing one of their best defenders in Vic Beasley.
The betting marketplace is anticipating a shootout in this one but I don't see it developing. Look for a tightly-contested affair with neither team finding much rhythm offensively.
Tony Karpinski
Ravens vs. Jaguars
Play: Jaguars +3½
The Ravens are drawing a lot of buzz after starting 2-0, but let's hold off on the coronation after beating two teams with major issues. Baltimore is a different team on the road and this is their first trip across the pond. This is Jacksonville's 5th trip so they are used to the travel patterns and I like this team. The Ravens O-line is decimated, and their offensive skill players haven't really impressed, just taking what their defense gives them. If the Jaguars can protect the ball -- a big if with Blake Bortles under center, I know -- their run game should dictate this matchup, especially with Ravens DT Brandon Williams out, and put them in a position to win. Take Jax PLUS THE PTS in this early Sunday morning kickoff.