Stephen Nover
Cincinnati vs. Green Bay
Play: Cincinnati +7.5
Aside from Aaron Rodgers, the Packers' two most important players are defensive lineman Mike Daniels and offensive left tackle David Bakhtiari. Neither is expected to play against the Bengals.
The Packers may have offensive right tackle Byran Bulaga and wide receiver Jordy Nelson - stressing the maybe - but the Packers are going to be without star pass rusher Nick Perry, probably linebacker Jake Ryan and wide receiver Randall Cobb. The Packers also have several injuries in their secondary.
So Green Bay is far from 100 percent. The Bengals are a desperate 0-2 team. The Bengals have been a major disappointment offensively, but their defense is solid. Cincinnati had made the playoffs five straight seasons until last year. Only one of their last six defeats have been by more than five points.
Cincinnati has too much skill position talent for its offense to stay this bad. The Bengals' work-in-progress offensive line catches a huge break with Daniels not likely to play. A change in offensive coordinatos from Ken Zampese to Bill Lazor could spur immediate improvement while boosting sagging team morale. A.J. Green is the best receiver on the field. Lazor will make sure Green and promising rookie running back Joe Mixon are big parts of the offense.
The Bengals have had extra time to rest and prepare having last played in the Thursday game last week. The Bengals have been a jinx team to Mike McCarthy and Aaron Rodgers as they've beaten them.
Jim Feist
Royals at White Sox
Pick: Under
A pair of poor AL offensive teams meet and this is a tough park to hit in. Kansas City is #24 in baseball in runs scored, #28 in on-base percentage. This is the tenth straight road game for the Royals. Veteran Ian Kennedy has thrown better on the road this season with batters hitting .221 off him away from home. He faces a Chicago offense that is #22 in runs scored, #24 in on-base percentage. Chicago goes with Lucas Giolito (2.58 ERA), with batters hitting .190 off him.
DAVE COKIN
STEELERS AT BEARS
PLAY: BEARS +7
Today’s NFL free play is a home dog that won’t be especially popular with the masses. That stuff doesn’t matter much to me either way in the NFL. I’m mostly sticking with my numbers as far as this year’s NFL is concerned. I made the Steelers -4 here so I see substantial value taking a full TD and positive juice with Chicago.
The one big concern for me was the Bears injury situation, but while it’s not great, it’s better than it was last week at Tampa Bay. As for Pittsburgh, they’ve got the big rivalry duel with Baltimore on deck. Plus, laying points on the road against losing home teams has not exactly been a strength for the Steelers. I’ll grab the points with the Bears in what I anticipate will be a close game.
Jesse Schule
Chiefs vs. Chargers
Play:Chargers +3½
The Chiefs are still flying high after blowing out the Patriots at Foxboro in Week 1, but I think perhaps they are getting too much credit for that win. They come into LA asked to cover a bunch of points, and I think this is going to be a tough matchup for KC. Despite turning the ball over twice, the Eagles out-gained the Chiefs 406-344 last Sunday, and that game was tied midway through the fourth quarter.
The Chargers could easily be 2-0, but two missed field goals as time expired has them at 0-2. Phillip Rivers threw for 331 yards on 31-of-39 passing in last week's loss to the Dolphins. He could have another big game against a Chiefs defense that is missing safety Eric Berry.
We shouldn't forget that there is also a big revenge angle here, after last season's Week 1 loss at Arrowhead. The Chargers opened up a 21-3 first half lead in that game, only to lose in overtime. Melvin Gordon ran for 57 yards and two TDs on 14 carries in a losing effort. Danny Woodhead caught five passes for 31 yards and a TD. With Woodhead now in Baltimore, Gordon has become a real threat in the passing game. The Chiefs are allowing over 115 rushing yards per game so far, and they have given up three rushing TDs. This could be a breakout game for Gordon.
The Chiefs were 6-2 straight up on the road last year, but three of those wins came by three points or less. I'll take the home dog getting points, with a superior quarterback.
Larry Wallace
Seahawks vs. Titans
Play: Seahawks +3
Take the Seahawks in this match-up against the Titans. Russell Wilson isn't off to the best start of the season, but he will turn it around. Also, good news for Seattle is that they got the running game going against the 49ers. Seattle has a good defense to be able to stop the Titans. Lastly, Seattle will put all of their pieces together in this game.
Ben Burns
Denver vs. Buffalo
Pick: Buffalo +3.5
Off a blowout victory over the Cowboys, the 2-0 Broncos have to be feeling pretty good about themselves. They're tied with the Chiefs and Raiders on top of the division. (With an 0-2 record, the Chargers are 0-2 in the basement.) Speaking of the Raiders, the Broncos will host them next week. With that pivotal divisional showdown on deck and playing their first road game of the season, it might be easy to get caught looking ahead, past the Bills. That could well prove costly. The Bills won their home game but lost last week at Carolina. Armed with the knowledge that they play b2b road games after this, the Bills know the importance of getting a "W" here. I expect a highly motivated effort and for them to give their guests all they can handle. Assuming you're getting at least a field goal, check out Buffalo, plus the points, on Sunday afternoon.
Big Al
St. Louis vs. Pittsburgh
Pick: Pittsburgh +103
With injuries to their starting rotation mounting earlier this season, the Cardinals decided to give a starting opportunity to 21-year-old former first round pick, Jack Flaherty. At first, the experiment seemed to paying off as the Cards won each of Flaherty's first two starts -- even though he didn't pitch all that great. But with Flaherty getting knocked around pretty good in his last two starts -- and with concern as to his workload -- the team has now decided to put Flaherty in the bullpen. That opens the door for another inexperienced starter this afternoon -- 25-year-old RH John Gant. Gant started seven games for the Braves last season and has five appearances out of the pen in 2017, but there's only one problem with giving him a start tonight. Gant isn't nearly as talented as Flaherty as he has a 1-4 record and 4.70 ERA in 25 career MLB games. The Pirates will go with RHP Jameson Taillon for this 24th start. Taillon and the Pirates would like nothing better than to play the role of spoilers against the Cardinals. The Pirates are 9-2 in Taillon's last 11 starts during game three of a series.
Bruce Marshall
Cleveland at Indianapolis
Pick: Indianapolis
Just can't resist going against Brownies when they are favored on road, even if just 1 or 1 1/2. Only one win in last 21 and favored on road! Brissett did give Indy a chance to win last week, appears a better option than Tolzien. Colts have run into Rams buzz-saw and a desperate Arizona, now dropping in class. Make Kizer win an NFL game before taking Cleveland to win on road, passing game still a mystery for Brownies.
Nelly
Minnesota + over Tampa Bay
Sam Bradford was a late scratch last week and the Vikings predictably lost at Pittsburgh though the game was relatively close most of the way in a game with 21 penalties for more than 200 yards. Tampa Bay wasn't pressed last week up 26-0 at the half with short field scores off Chicago mistakes. These teams figure to be nearby in the NFC wild card chase for a critical early season matchup with a Vikings bounce back possible though Bradford is planning to sit out again this week. Case Keenum acquitted himself acceptably in a tough matchup with Pittsburgh last week and the current line is suggesting about 4 point move with the switch to the lesser former Rams quarterback. The Buccaneers won't have the same defensive pressure as the Steelers regardless of who is quarterback and the Minnesota defense will offer a tougher challenge to Jameis Winston. The Vikings are on a 22-10 ATS run following a S/U loss and Minnesota is catching great value as just a very slight home underdog despite a 19-7 ATS run at home since 2014. Tampa Bay was a decent road team last season but the Buccaneers have had such an unusual start to the season with the Week 1 game postponed and last week's delayed home opener. Expect the Buccaneers to have lesser intensity this week in a far tougher matchup with the Vikings finding a way to get the job done.
Harry Bondi
Cincinnati / Green Bay Under 47
Nice winner here yesterday on Miami Ohio and today we turn to the NFL. In a game that pits two offenses that struggled mightily in the first two weeks of the season, we’ll gladly go under this inflated total. The Bengals offensive woes have been well-documented. While opening the season 0-2, Cinci has failed to score a touchdown and overall has totaled just 9 points. They’ll be without TE Tyler Eifert again today and he is a major offensive weapon. Meanwhile, the Bengals defense has been very good, allowing an average of just 4.5 yards per play and 16.5 points per game. So, don’t expect a banged up Green Bay offense that scored most of its points in garbage time last Sunday in a loss at Atlanta to score too many points today. What’s more, Cinci is 6-10 to the under in its last 16 road games and the Pack has gone under in 12 of its last 18 games at Lambeau. Go under!
Will Rogers
Cincinnati vs. Green Bay
Pick: Green Bay -7
The set-up: The Cincinnati Bengals visit Lambeau Field and the Green Bay Packers on Sunday, coming to "Titletown USA' with not only an 0-2 record but with the NFL's worst offense. Cincy has yet to score a TD in two games (just three FGs in 13-9 loss to Houston, after getting shut out 20-0 by Baltimore in Week 1), giving them a scoring average of 4.5 PPG, ranking 32nd of 32 teams. The Packers haven't exactly been 'lighting up' the scoreboard either, opening the 2017 season with a 17-9 home win over the Seahawks in Week 1 and then losing 34-23 in Atlanta to the Falcons this past Sunday (20.0 PPG ranks 15th).
Cincinnati: QB Andy Dalton was dreadful in Week 1 (four INTs and a lost fumble) and while he was turnover-free in Week 2 and completed 20-of-35 for 224 yards, he couldn't get the Bengals in the end zone for a second consecutive week. The addition of rookie RB Joe Mixon to go along with Giovani Bernard was expected to greatly improve the Bengals' running game. However, neither back has more than 50 yards rushing after two games, as the Bengals are averaging 79.5 YPG (23rd) on 3.5 YPC. A.J. Green is a terrific WR but so far has been quiet (10 catches for 141 yards without a TD). The defense has allowed just 33 points (16.5 per) but that doesn't help much when the offense can't reach the end zone. Cincy ranks No. 1 in passing yards allowed (104.5 per) but 31st (2nd-to-last) in rushing yards allowed (162.5 YPG).
Green Bay; Aaron Rodgers is completing 66.3% for 654 yards with three TDs and two INTs. The running game is even worse than Cincy's, averaging 71.5 YPG (27th). Rodgers threw for 343 yards and two TDs while mostly playing catch-up vs the Falcons, plus did so without Jordy Nelson (quad) through much of the contest and fellow WR Randall Cobb (shoulder), as well. Nelson told reporters that "everything is headed in the right direction" for his return after an ailing quad forced his early exit last week. However, the availability of Cobb remains in question.
The pick: Sure, the Bengals come in with strong passing stats on defense but that's because they've faced a rusty Flacco and Watson, who was making his first-ever NFL start. Here, the Bengals draw Rodgers and a Green Bay team in a lousy mood after betting handled by the Falcons in much the same way they were last January in the NFC championship game. Green Bay is a moneymaking 39-19-2 ATS (67.2%) in their last 60 home games. Lay it!
Scott Rickenbach
Pittsburgh at Chicago
Play: Chicago +7
Nice home dog spot for the Bears here. They catch the Steelers off of a win and cover against Vikings team without QB Sam Bradford. Also, Pittsburgh has their biggest rival, Baltimore, on deck. That makes this a “sandwich spot” for the Steelers as they were up for their home opener against Minnesota last week and they have a tough road trip to face the Ravens up next. The Bears were a turnover machine last week and that gave them no chance for success at Tampa Bay. However, at home in Week 1, Chicago truly played a solid game and gave the defending NFC Champion Falcons a run for their money. With that cover, the Bears are a solid 5-1-1 ATS the last 7 times they’ve been a home dog. I like them again here to get the job done in that role.
Vegas Butcher
NO @ CAR -5.5
Here’s another ‘unproven’ team getting a ton of love from the bookmakers. The offseason line was -3 CAR, and now it’s way past the key numbers of 3 and 4. While the Saints were losing on the road @ MIN and against NE, the best team in the league according to 100% of experts out there, the Panthers were winning low-scoring games against the dreads of the NFL, SF and BUF. Now without Olsen, this Panthers’ inefficient offense could struggle even more. Regardless, this is a divisional game, against two teams that are very familiar with one another, and with a line inflated on the favorite. Lean: NO +5.5
TBB @ MIN +2.5
Case Keenum completed 54% of his passes for 4.5 PY/A average last week. That’s as bad as it gets in this league. He’ll be under center once again in this one. Tampa is coming off a dominant win at home (against the lowly Bears), but they have a ton of injury concerns on D. Keenum could perform much better at home, and with another week to prepare. This one is tough to analyze, but taking a road-favorite this early in the season with so many ‘question marks’ is not advised. Besides, this one is not going to +3, so this should tell you something. Lean: MIN +2.5
DEN @ BUF +3
This line was -1 BUF in the offseason, yet now they’re a home underdog of a FG. Two factors in play here: Bills made some key changes in the offseason after the line was released and Denver is coming off a home shellacking of the Cowboys, a team that most people have in the top-5 this year. Still, remember that this early in the year, it’s very dangerous to focus on what happened the previous week. Denver is playing their first road game here, and with a home tilt against the Raiders on tap in week 4, this could be a major ‘look ahead’ spot. So how can the Bills pull off an upset here? Well, this defense could be just as good as Denver’s. They’ve allowed 21 points in two games, albeit the lowly Jets and a struggling Panthers offense. But this team is top-10 in ASR (Adjusted Sack Rate), top-5 in ALY (Adjusted Line Yards), and are a top-3 defense through two games. Denver’s LT Garett Bolles returned to practice somehow on Thursday, but he was carted off last week, and won’t be close to 100% if he suits up. Remember, Denver’s O-line is ranked as one in the worst in the league. I think the Bills at home could disrupt this Denver offense. Offensively, Buffalo has to rely on their running attack. I know the Broncos bottled up Zeke last week, but run-D is NOT the strength of this unit. With a mobile QB in Taylor, and a dynamic back in McCoy, Bills have the ability to dominate in the run-game. In what is expected to be a very low scoring game, getting a FG with the home team screams value to me. Lean: BUF +3
PIT @ CHI +7
The Bears looked absolutely awful at Tampa last week (I know, because I was there for that abomination), particularly Glennon. But let’s remember that most NFL teams play very differently at home than on the road. Chicago almost beat the defending NFC Champs Falcons in week 1 at home, and now they’ll get a team that is just as good. Pittsburgh has a couple of ‘cupcake’ matchups to start out the year (MIN was without Bradford), and they have a divisional game @ BAL on tap. Is this a bit of a ‘look ahead’ spot for them? Could very well be. This team won by 3 @ Cleveland, and Chicago is a better team, especially at home. Bears are getting Kyle Long and Prince Amukamara back for this one, both of whom are making their season debuts. (They’ll be without Sitton unfortunately, which is a big loss to the O-line). Pittsburgh is without Watt and Gilbert (their best O-lineman). Remember, Roethlisberger and the Steelers offense aren’t as dynamic on the road as they’ve been at home, and the Bears are 5-1 ATS as a home dog of 3.5-7 points over their last 6. I like the value on the home dog here. Lean: CHI +7
MIA @ NYJ +6
This line was +2 NYJ in the offseason. Now with Cutler at the helm instead of Tannehill, and with the Jets being worse than everyone thought, the line is much higher. It’s past the key numbers of 3 and 4, and is settled on 6. But is that too big of an adjustment? I think so. This is a divisional game, and divisional opponents play each other fairly close a good amount of the time (see PIT @ CLE in week 1). Besides, Miami’s win @ LAC, was a bit fluky. They were outgained 7.0 YPP to 5.0 YPP by the Chargers, and only won because San Diego has horrific special teams. Jets were on the road in their first two weeks, but playing at home, I’d expect a bit stronger effort. It should help that Miami is dealing with injuries to a number of key players – Ajayi, Landry, Parker. All three will play, but might not be at 100%. Lean: NYJ +6
NYG @ PHI -6
In the offseason this line was PHI -1. Now we have a 5-point jump. I don’t have to tell you where the ‘value’ lies. Yes, Giants’ offense looked like dog-poop in the first two weeks of the season, but reports indicate we’ll see some serious changes. Darkwa could take over at RB, O-line should see some changes, and most importantly, Beckham is off the injury report. Against a Phillies injury-riddled secondary, that’s a huge factor. Also, let’s remember that NY has one of the better defenses in the league. Against an Eagles team that has virtually zero run-game, that’s a big factor. If you don’t have to worry about the run-game, it’s much easier to rush the QB and focus on coverage. Finally, let’s not forget that these are divisional opponents that know each other very well. I expect a close game and the line-value is an icing on the cake in this one. Lean: NYG +6
ATL @ DET +3
Interesting game here. The Lions were +1.5 in the offseason, and after dominating their first two games of the year, they’re now at +3? Hmmm. What gives? I know the Lions are on a short-week, but this team has played pretty well so far. Atlanta struggled on the road @ Chicago, and dominated a Packers team that was either missing a number of key players (both tackles) or had them get hurt in-game (Nelson, Cobb, Daniels). Still, this is a good team of course, but are they really 6 points better than the Lions on a neutral field? I don’t think so. Atlanta will be without their premier pass-rusher in Beasley and their starting RT Ryan Schraeder is out with a concussion. I expect a competitive game here, but the line value is definitely with a home underdog in this one. Lean: DET +3
HOU @ NE -14
This spread was -9 NE in the offseason with Savage as a projected QB. Is Watson better than Savage? He can’t be any worse. The Pats are a juggernaut on offense, but Houston does have one key defensive factor in their favor – a dominant D-Line. If the Watt, Clowney, and Mercilus could put pressure on Brady, Houston at least has a chance to stay in this one. With 10-days to prepare, expect Texans to have a few tricks up their sleeve. Offensively, they’re going up against a Pats D that’s allowed 8.3 YPP to the Chiefs and 6.8 YPP to the Saints. That’s not good. Now they’re dealing with injuries to their CB’s Eric Rowe and Stephon Gilmore, in addition to Hightower who already missed last week. All three will most likely play but not sure they’ll be at 100%. I think this spread is over-valued a bit here, and if it’s a 30-10 game late with Houston driving in the final few minutes of the game, how confident are we they won’t get the ‘backdoor’ cover? Lean: HOU +14
CLE @ IND +1.5
The Browns are road favorites. Let me repeat that: the Browns are road favorites! I don’t know when that happened the last time, but it had to be at least 2-3+ years ago. The offseason line was -9.5 IND in this game. Is Luck worth 11 points? Probably not, so I believe we’re seeing some solid line-value here. Lean: IND +1.5
SEA @ TEN -2.5
This offseason line was +2 TEN, so there’s a pretty hefty adjustment here as well. Is this the game when Seattle’s offense gets on track? The Titans don’t have a very imposing pass-rush, and their secondary is very mediocre. I think the Seahawks have a chance to have a strong offensive showing here. But the Titans could have a strong game offensively as well. Henry seems to be in line to get majority of the carries, and a dominant run-game will go up against a Seattle D that has really struggled containing the run so far. Seattle has allowed 5.2 YPC to opposing backs in the first 2 weeks, and I don’t see it getting much easier in this one. Seahawks started their season on the road, then flew back home for week 2, and now have to travel to the Midwest once again. That’s a lot of travel in a 3-week span. Seattle is 7-12 ATS on the road in the last few years and 1-3 ATS as a road underdog of 3 points or less. This seems like it could be a pretty tough spot for this team. Lean: TEN -2.5
KC @ LAC +3
Here’s another scenario where the home team was an underdog by fewer than a FG (+1.5) in the offseason. Chiefs are off a couple of wins beating NE on the road and PHI at home, but the Chargers have played pretty well as well. A few made FG-attempts and we could be looking at two 2-0 teams squaring off in this one. Would the spread still be +3 LA? I doubt it. This is a divisional game, with two very good team, and the home underdog is clearly under-valued. Lean: LAC +3
CIN @ GB -7.5
After another dismal performance on TNF, Cincy fired their offensive coordinator and installed their QB-coach Lazor into the role. This type of a shakeup early in the season would typically mean an improvement in the short, and potentially longer, term. I’m not sure what changes Lazor will implement but he has 10-days to do so. Against a Packers D that got torched last week and will be without their stud DT Mike Daniels, I’d expect a breakout from Cincy, even though they’re without Eifert and Ross. Packers are dealing with other injuries as Cobb, LT Backhtiari, and a number of defensive players are set to miss the game. Jordy Nelson has a quad issue that could flare up at anytime as well. I do believe this one will be a pretty close game and grabbing this many points is advised. Lean: CIN +7.5
OAK @ WAS +3
Washington was +1 in the offseason, so another home dog where the line got inflated after a couple of weeks of the season. Raiders have a big divisional game @ Denver next week so this is a bit of a ‘look ahead’ spot for them. They’re also making a cross-country track for this game, though of course this is not an early start. The issue for Oakland is that they’re really bad defensively, and playing on the road, I’d expect to see them underperform even further in that department. Washington can hang with this team on offense, and getting a FG with them is generous. Lean: WAS +3
Tommy Brunson
Comp play for Sunday is the Browns and the Colts to easily hold Under the posted total.
You don't have to be a rocket scientist to know that both of these teams have had their issues getting the football to cross the goal line, as Cleveland is 2-for-2 Under the posted total in 2017, and they have scored just 28-points in their 2 games contested. For what it is worth, the Brownies also played all 4 of their preseason games this August Under the total, so until I see a break in that pattern, it is best to stick with the heavy first year trends under Head Coach Hue Jackson.
As for Indianapolis, they did get a little boost starting Jacoby Brissett last week in a home loss to Arizona. That game went to OT, and it still held Under. The Colts did go Over in their first game of the season, but not because of their offense, as they could only manage 3 field goals against the Rams, but allowed 46-points in a game that went Over the total. Including the preseason, the Colts are now 4-2 Under for the year. Indy is also 9-3 Under the total in their last 12 regular season home games at Lucas Oil Field.
These teams last met in 2014 and that meeting held Under the total to put the series numbers at 5-1 Under the total dating back to 2003.
Hard to ignore the heavy Under trends that are right in front of us, so don't!
Browns-Colts Under.
4* CLEVELAND-INDIANAPOLIS UNDER
Joey Juice
Texans come off a long week, well rested, as they head to Gillette Stadium for a date with Tom and the gang who has revved up their engines after an opening loss by destroying the Saints last week.
The numbers say it all in this one. Houston can’t cover a spread to save their life. They are now 3-8 last 11 overall games. They also can’t cover on the road where they are 3-7 ATS last 10 road games. Add to that the fact that they are 2-5 vs the AFC and you see why this team is toast vs NE who are 33-16-2 ATS last 52 games under Tom.
Besides, NE always covers at home, 26-10-2 ATS last 38 in NE. Lastly, Patriots are golden against the AFC, 6-1 ATS last 7.
Bottom Line, The Patriots are 6-1-1 last 8 times these 2 teams faced off, and an undeniable 5-0 ATS last 5 times they played Texans in NE.
Lay the big wood with NE here!
3* NEW ENGLAND