Free Picks: Free Service Plays for Sunday, September 25th, 2016

Dave Cokin

Tampa Bay -4.5

I occasionally will make a play based almost solely on the situation, and this looks like one of those spots. I don't like this scenario for the visiting Rams, and I very much like it for the Tampa Bay side.

First off, I'll just say that I couldn't care less about the travel factor. The west to east deal that used to work very well really hasn't for some time now, and I basically ignored that completely when sizing up this particular game.

What does matter to me is that the 1-1 Rams are incompetent on offense and I believe they're in the wrong place on the wrong week here.

Los Angeles is off a huge emotional win. They just won the first game in their new home and did so against a true rival as the Seahawks are divisional opponents. That was a gigantic victory for Jeff Fisher's team. But were they impressive in getting past Seattle? I sure didn't think so. I thought the win was more an indication of just how awful the Seattle offense is right now. The Seahawks offensive line is pathetic, and QB Russell Wilson was clearly not his usual self thanks to that balky ankle. The Rams were good enough to get the win, but I certainly didn't upgrade them off getting that decision.

Meanwhile, the Bucs had to head to the desert to face a superior Cardinals squad that was smarting from a disappointing Week One defeat at the hands of the Patriots. Arizona was more than ready to play on Sunday, and the Cardinals were also catching the Bucs in a second straight road game off a divisional win against Atlanta. From a scheduling dynamics standpoint, that was one tough spot for Tampa Bay.

Had the Bucs put forth a big effort and just come up a little short, I might not feel as I do about this game. But they got absolutely humiliated by the Cardinals for the entire 60 minutes. I like this team to be improved this season, so my take here is that I'm going to get a fired up host eager to make immediate amends for a terrible showing.

Better team at home in what looks to be a favorable situational spot is more than palatable to me and I'm making the Buccaneers minus the points my free play for this weekend's NFL slate.

Sleepyj

Pittsburgh -180

I feel this is the perfect kind of storm game....Both teams coming off a win, but Philly has received a ton of press the last few days...Yes, the Eagles are 2-0 and they beat two trash teams...We knew that going into both games....I'm very in tune with the Eagles and people who support them....Eagles getting a ton of press now because they found the "franchise" QB.....I can name about 35 guys in the NFL who could look like the "franchise" against the Browns and Bears defense...I'm not taking anything away from what Wentz did, but let's be realistic...He played two trash teams....The Eagles are also coming off a MNF win, which the public and sharps all banged on the Bears...Well it was a wake up call to some, but overall the Eagles are getting too much respect...This line took a nose dive from 5.5 to 3.5....Well that's great for us because we are taking the ML in this contest...I think the smart money knows this will never hit -3 or -2.5...So get it down as low as possible and just bet the Steelers to win the game outright....Here is another reason I'm on the ML.....Laying the hook is never a good idea in NFL games IMO....I also hate the fact that HC Tomlin likes to go for 2pt conv in games.....It's going to bite the Steelers backers sooner or later and my gut feeling is it happens to them in this game somehow...Steelers win by 2 or 3, just makes sense to me..i can almost see it happening in this one....I like the fact that Pittsburgh has short travel here..A true road game, but a quick 1hr flight for the Steelers....Steelers have a running game, passing game, defense and a HOF QB......The Bears and Browns have none of that....Bears got WR Jeffery who is very good.....So the line move IMO is just setup money....Notice how the line got pounded down to -170/-175, then got hammered back up again.....It will rise again IMO...I would grab this -180 asap.....Steelers have the better offense...Do you really think Wentz can keep up the scoring with Big Ben and Antonio Brown?.....No....He can't....Why so, because he is going to face and actual defense that knows what's going on...Steelers have plenty of defensive team speed and that will limit the Eagles big play....Philly WR have issues dropping passes and that hasn't changed in the last 19 games....They will drop key passes again in this one...Philly overall is a team in rebuilding mode...They have some nice pieces and I hope Wentz is the QB of the future for Philly....Eagles defense is much improved and I'm actually impressed with them right now....I just don't feel good about the big step up in class even at home for the dirty birds.....I feel strong about Tomlin going to the well and screwing up the 2pt conv in this game and it costs the Steelers backers perhaps...I have to take the ML here with the much better team all around....If you watched the Eagles the other night, they didn't do anything flashy....It was the Bears that just stunk up the joint...The Eagles will need to make plays in all 3 areas today...I just can't see it happening here...Eagles PK Sturgis is also a bit gimpy right now and he isn't all that good to begin with... Another area Pitt wins with...Close game though.

Strike Point Sports

Detroit (+7.5) over Green Bay

Last week we had Arizona, and they slaughtered Tampa Bay in a blowout winner for this free pick. Green Bay has not proven that it should be favored by more than a touchdown versus anyone right now. I am well aware that they love to play in front of their home fans and that this is a tough place to play, but the Packers just don't have the look of a good football team currently. If you take a closer look at the last five Packers home games you will see that they are just 1-4 ATS in their last five home stints. The Lions have won three of the last five games outright versus Green Bay, and in one of the losses it was only a four-point Packers win. Over the last five meetings the Packers would have only covered a 7-8 point line once, and that was a 30-20 victory in which the two teams were tied in the third quarter, and the Packers had a punt return touchdown. The Packers and their "superstar" QB just aren't getting the job done, and it is really starting to bother Packers fans. The Rodgers-led Packers offense isn't as good as people think. Rodgers hasn't broken 100 in passer rating in 14 straight games. Yes, 14 straight. Can he do it against the Lions defense? I don't think he will, and I don't see the Packers covering this line.

Indian Cowboy

Chicago (+7.5) over Dallas

Sometimes you have to buy low and sell high. Such is the case here with the Chicago Bears. And irrelevant of if Cutler plays in this game or not, we still like the Bears to hang tough as they play for their season. Very few teams in the NFL have made it to the playoffs after starting the season 0-3, and the Bears can ill afford to lose this game. Will they likely lose? Sure, they probably will because the Bears find ways to lose games it seems. However, we do think that this team shows a lot of pride and understands the importance of this game as only 12% of teams who have lost the first two games in the NFL Season have ever even made it to the playoffs - and it's even less if you lose 3 games to start a season. The Cowboys come off their first win and it was against the Redskins on the road who did everything they could to lose the game it seemed. You have a wounded dog here in the Bears both figuratively and literally, and the public will continue to raise the line on this game as the public would love to take the sexy favorites in Dallas at home. Plus, they want to pile on the Bears who come off an embarrassing loss on national television. Great public fade and the Bears will play with a lot of pride as this is the same team that was leading the Texans a good bit of the way in Week 1. We have the Bears losing by a field goal or less, but more importantly, we have them staying inside the number.

Alex Smart

Redskins vs. Giants
Play: Giants -4½

In my humble opinion there is an obvious lack of cohesion in the Washington Redskins locker room and on the sidelines and most noticeably on the field. Losing your first two home games of the season, does not do alot for a teams confidence. Yes, I know QB Cousins has thrown for a big chunk yards through two games (693) but he has only 1 touchdown and three interceptions to show for it in his one man flying circus. Meanwhile the Gmen are performing at the proverbial opposite end of the performance spectrum with a 2-0 record. With QB Manning doing just enough , in between some top tier play from the Giants D, the home side looked poised to start their season 3-0. It must noted that NYG allowed the Saints just 3 /3rd down conversions in 13 tries in their last game a 16-13 win.

Redskins are 4-10-1 ATS in their last 15 games in Week 3.Giants are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games in Week 3.Home team is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings.Redskins are 3-8-1 ATS in their last 12 meetings in New York. Redskins are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 meetings.

Randall the Handle

THE BEST

Raiders (1-1) at Titans (1-1)

Maybe the Titans are turning a corner, but scoring a paltry 16 points per game is not going to produce many victories. Oakland gave up huge yardage and points in its first two games (Saints and Falcons) but Tennessee’s offence has yet to find a rhythm and doesn’t pose that kind of threat. The Titans might have to surrender if this offensively capable visitor gets out to a two-score lead. Tennessee hasn’t won consecutive games in more than two years. It finds itself in an unfamiliar role, now cast as the favourite after spotting points only three times over past two seasons and failing to cover each time. The Raiders made this same visit last year and left town with a 24-21 win. Did Tennessee get that much better in the off-season to change that result around? We still have to believe that the Raiders are the vastly improved club since then and disposing of these types is now an expectation we believe they can meet. TAKING: RAIDERS +1½

Steelers (2-0) at Eagles (2-0)

The Browns and the Bears are the two worst teams in the NFL right now. The Eagles have earned their surprising 2-0 start by taking each of those clubs down. Talk about a false sense of security. Now rookie QB Carson Wentz will take a huge step up in class to face a Super Bowl contender. Even with their pile of injured and suspended players, the Steelers are deeply talented. Backup RB D’Angelo Williams is leading the league in rushing. QB Ben Roethlisberger has a top receiver in Antonio Brown and should be able to expose a thin Philadelphia secondary whose abilities have been masked by weak opponents. The Eagles have little firepower on offence and their receivers seem to drop more passes than they catch. Let Philadelphia compete here and we’ll shell out respect that they haven’t quite earned yet. Pittsburgh is reliable, covering 10 of past 13 when favoured. As Roger Hodgson of Supertramp once advised, we’ll give a little bit here. TAKING: STEELERS –3½

Vikings (2-0) at Panthers (1-1)

Do you know that the Vikings won the NFC North a year ago? Do you know that the Vikes are 2-0 this season and just defeated nemesis Packers? Are you aware that Minnesota was a botched 27-yard field goal away from knocking Seattle out of the playoffs last season? Would you be surprised to know that Sam Bradford might actually be a better quarterback than the injured Teddy Bridgewater? Do you know that Minnesota’s defence is a stellar unit that ranks among the best in several categories? Should you be anxious to take a full touchdown with this club no matter who they play? Darn right you should! This price is an insult to a very sound football club. While the Panthers are decent as well, they showed some warts against a meagre San Francisco team last week with the blowout score not indicative of what went on. Vikings have covered 11 of past 12 when taking points. Rarely are so many offered. TAKING: VIKINGS +7

THE REST

Broncos (2-0) at Bengals (1-1)

It may be easier to trust the Broncos here as they continue to dominate with their excellent defensive play. The Bengals don’t provide that same faith as they hardly ever defeat a heavyweight and their erratic style can be difficult to rely upon. However, this will be Denver’s first away game of the year and it will be played on a field where the host is 19-4-1 the past three seasons. Broncos QB Trevor Siemian has been average at best thus far and now he’ll leave Mile High for his first road start. The Broncos needed overtime to upend Cincy 20-17 at the end of last season. Look for the host to exact some revenge against the champs. TAKING: BENGALS –3

Cardinals (1-1) at Bills (0-2)

Something weird happens when teams that are supposed to beat the Bills come here. They rarely do. After witnessing Buffalo’s first two games this season, the Bills might be a hard sell. They were completely dominated by the Jets two Thursdays ago for all to see. Buffalo fired its offensive coordinator after that one but that might have been misdirected as the defence or lack of it appeared to be a bigger issue. The Cardinals are dangerous, bouncing back from opening day loss only to trounce the Bucs last week. So why get behind the feebler squad? Because desperate times call for desperate measures and we expect a feisty effort from the home side despite recent showings. Strong home underdog gets the nod. TAKING: BILLS +4

Ravens (2-0) at Jaguars (0-2)

Dangle a bunch of points in front of the Jaguars and we might be interested. Demanding a win to earn a cover and we’ll pass, thanks. Said to be on the rise after spending a decade or so rebuilding, we have yet to see it. Sure, the Jags battled with the Packers on opening day but still lost and then reverted to their usual ways with a dismal performance at San Diego last week. Coach Gus Bradley is now 12-38 at his job here and his pants must be hot. Meanwhile, John Harbaugh gets the best out of whatever roster he has to work with and after falling behind 20-0 to the Browns last week (before a comeback win), you can bet he’ll have his team paying attention from the get go. TAKING: RAVENS –1

Browns (0-2) at Dolphins (0-2)

Things keep going from bad to worse in Cleveland. Now on to its third quarterback in as many weeks, not only will the Brownies have to send a rookie thrower out to face the Dolphins, they will now have to do it without promising rookie WR Corey Coleman (104 yards, 2 TD’s last week) after he broke his hand in practice this week. The Dolphins haven’t spotted double-digits since Dan Marino was quarterback. That’s a testament to how inept the Browns are. Miami had a tough schedule to start with a pair of road games on opposite coasts, losing at Seattle and New England respectively. Now home with 0-3 glaring at them, the Fish cannot afford to look past this one and we anticipate an all-out effort against a weak and depleted opponent. TAKING: DOLPHINS –9½

Redskins (0-2) at Giants (2-0)

Most are disenchanted with the Redskins and you can add us to the club. It’s no shock that rumours of a disgruntled locker-room exist, largely aimed at the subpar performances of QB Kirk Cousins. Right now, it appears that Cousins couldn’t hit water from a boat, let alone roaming receivers. That should suit an improved Giants defence just fine as the G-Men have owned their division rival on this field, winning four straight here by an average of 10 points per game. The Giants have put up moderate points so far but that’s not from an inability to move the ball, currently ranking 11th in passing. Blunders in the red zone have been an issue but against troubled Washington, things figure to get corrected in a hurry. TAKING: GIANTS –4½

Lions (1-1) at Packers (1-1)

Detroit won here last year for the first time since the mid 90’s. Green Bay returned the favour with that unforgettable Hail Mary as time ran out. So both are revenge motivated. Given the choice, the hometown Packers are preferred. This is Green Bay’s home opener. The Pack have won and covered seven of past eight in first home game. They have also covered 14 of 18 after consecutive road contests. These Packers just lost to a division mate. They can ill afford to do it again and with a bye upcoming next week, they will be fully focused for this one. Most importantly is Detroit’s cluster of injuries to its linebackers and Aaron Rodgers’ ability to exploit that depleted area. A Green Bay romp would not surprise. TAKING: PACKERS -7½

49ers (1-1) at Seahawks (1-1)

Props to the Niners for a spirited effort in Carolina last week. Now this San Francisco team will have to follow that long trip with a jaunt to the other side of the country and to a place that has been a burial ground for them. The 49ers have not managed a cover here in past nine visits and this week’s circumstances lead us to believe that another long afternoon is in store. While Seattle’s offence has been awful in the early going (15 points in two games), its defence remains ferocious. The Seahawks prowess at stopping the run will force pop gun QB Blaine Gabbert to go aerial. That won’t work out well. Seattle smarting from loss to Rams and looking to get its offence untracked overwhelms the Niners. Again. TAKING: SEAHAWKS –9½

Rams (1-1) at Buccaneers (1-1)

If Tampa is moving up the charts, they’ll have to prove it in situations like this, a home game versus a mediocre foe. But until we see it, taking points with a good defensive team versus an unreliable opponent is the way to go. Granted, it’s tough to get behind L.A.’s horrendous offence, a group that has yet to score a touchdown but it’s only a matter of time until they get a couple and should they find the end zone here, the defence can do the rest. Rams get some injured young guys back on the field for this one and that may boost the anemic offence as well. The Bucs are screwy, especially on this field where they’ve only covered once in past seven as home chalk. TAKING: RAMS +5½

Jets (1-1) at Chiefs (1-1)

The Chiefs flat lined in Houston last week but we expect a rebound here. This will be KC’s only home game in a month. They visit Pittsburgh next week. This one becomes essential. They will unwelcome a Jets team that finds both of their best receivers on the limp as the status of both Brandon Marshall and Eric Decker are uncertain at the moment. After a shaky 1-5 start a year ago, the Chiefs went on to win 10 straight and a playoff game. They have won seven consecutive at Arrowhead. Considering that New York’s defence has been quite penetrable this season while Kansas City’s remains a solid but unheralded group, have to lean to Andy Reid’s squad spotting the cheap price. TAKING: CHIEFS –3

Chargers (1-1) at Colts (0-2)

Unless they are really crummy, teams have a way of responding when their backs are to the wall. The Colts are facing the dreaded 0-3 start. While it’s still early, it remains a deep hole to crawl out of should a team end up there. They catch a San Diego team that has played well but has lost its best receiver and a valued offensive valve in Danny Woodhead. The Bolts are not deep enough to keep replacing front liners. Meanwhile, QB Andrew Luck has an array of guys to throw to and with the Chargers unstable run defence, Luck’s playbook can expand and cause the visitor some grief. CB Vontae Davis could return to Indy’s lineup after missing first two and that too would hamper San Diego’s cause. TAKING: COLTS –2½

Bears (0-2) at Cowboys (1-1)

Jay Cutler is out and journeyman Brian Hoyer is in for the Bears. While that is a drop in talent, Hoyer’s experience does not warrant his side being a full touchdown underdog to Dallas QB Dak Prescott making just his third pro start. Prescott has been steady but still hasn’t thrown a touchdown pass, another hindrance to the big spot. It also doesn’t help how poor the Cowboys have been on Jerry’s field as an expected winner. As faves, Dallas has just two covers in past 16 attempts when laying points. Chicago is off to a dreadful start but we aren’t convinced that they are quite this bad. Sunday prime time is big stage for Dallas’ skill position youngsters. With the hefty pointspread, a little too big for our liking. TAKING: BEARS +7

Falcons (1-1) at Saints (0-2)

The only thing missing from this one will be Usain Bolt. Expected to be a track meet, good arguments can be made for both sides as each has quick striking offences while both team’s defences are under fire. Prefer to lean to home side with desperation Saints and the experienced arm of Drew Brees. Brees knows how to take advantage of this opponent with four straight 300 yard games against the Falcs. Atlanta travels for second time in as many weeks and after knocking off the Raiders last Sunday, it might be too tall of an order to compete here. Falcons also bankroll busters with just three covers in past 14 regular season games. Saints won both meetings last year, including 10-point win at this venue. TAKING: SAINTS –3

Vegas Butcher

DEN @ CIN -3.5

It’s -3 @ -125/-130 juice right now, so clearly going to -3.5 looks like. Remember, Denver is a world champ and is 2-0 (both SU and ATS) to start the season, so what gives? Well for one, Broncos will be without Ware who is out injured. But more importantly, it’s Siemian’s first road start as a NFL QB. Is he up to the task? Denver is a public team right now, so I think the line move indicates that some sharp $ doesn’t think so. I’m not so sure either. It’s one thing to be at home where the crowd stays quiet when the offense is on the field. It’s a different game when you’re in a loud hostile environment. So far, Siemian ranks 28th in QBR with 1:3 TD to INT ratio on the season. Take into account that his RT Donald Stephenson is out for this one as well, and there’s a reason why Cincy is being listed as a ‘better’ team in this game. I agree. Lean: CIN -3.5

OAK @ TEN -1.5

This line opened at PK but has quickly moved to the current number. What’s interesting is that Titans were +2.5 in the initial spread release, a full 4-points off from where they are now. I think the bookmakers are making an adjustment here as clearly this Titans team is better than most thought. Remember, they had a 10-point halftime lead in week 1 against the Vikings and then held Detroit to only 15 points on a way to a comeback win in week 2. Now they get the worst defense in the league (through 2 weeks of course) at home. Another factor to consider is the fact that the Raiders are playing in the 1 PM EST time-slot, a spot they haven’t done very well in historically. If the Titans can run the ball successfully as they want to do every game this season (OAK is 28th against the run), then this could be a long day for the Raiders. Lean: TEN -1.5

ARZ @ BUF +4

This line was BUF +2.5 in the pre-season, so you can see an adjustment here. This is a significant one since it crosses a key number of 3. A few things to consider here. Bills have had 10-days to prepare for this one but they are coming off a week where they’ve fired their offensive coordinator, after the offense put up 31 points. Go figure! I’ve spoken last week about the fact that I just don’t see the players rallying around Rex the way they had in seasons past. I truly think he’s either on the cusp or maybe already has lost the locker room. There’s also a lot of pressure on Rex Ryan to turn this season around, so this one will potentially be make-it or break-it game. One thing to keep in mind is that the Bills lost by one score in each of their first two games: by 6 @ BAL and by 6 vs NYJ. Arizona of course showed everyone last week that they’re still one of the best teams in the league as they dismantled the Bucs with ease. Of course the public will be all over them in this matchup, and they are with over 80% on them. The spread though dropped from -5 (opener) to -4.5 to now -4 as of this writing. I’m even seeing -3.5 at Pinny, the most reputable sportsbook for sharpies. Part of this is the fact that Buffalo is a home-underdog, and especially early in the season, that’s where the value lies. Part of it has to do with the fact that a significant change like firing Roman could rally the team, and get them to perform above expectations, especially in the short-term. A simplified offensive game plan, a 10 day rest week for the Bills, and Arizona’s first game on the road. Could we see an upset? Lean: BUF +4

BAL @ JAX +1.5

Another home underdog here, albeit a small one. Jags did well as an underdog in week 1 but they got destroyed on the road last week. Now the question is, can they win/cover at home this time around? Let’s remember that Baltimore barely scored 13 points on a bad Bills team at home and needed a Josh McCown injury to come back from 20-down @ Cleveland last week. Baltimore is getting Dumervil back this week though not sure if he’ll play the full slate of snaps on D. Ravens’ D has looked ‘good’ so far this season but they’ve only faced against CLE and BUF, two offensive dreads. Jags have some firepower on offense, though that has yet to materialize. Is this week the day it clicks for this squad Lean: JAX +1.5

CLE @ MIA -9.5

Miami almost won @ SEA and @ NE in two consecutive weeks, as they’ve lost by single digits each time. Now they’ll take on the worst team in the league, starting their rookie QB, and missing their top wide-out Coleman. By all accounts, including his own coaches, Kessler is not ready. Sure we watched Bill Belichick work some magic with an unproven rookie on Thursday night, but Cleveland doesn’t have close the talent that Pats do. Lean: MIA -9.5

DET @ GB -7

Green Bay’s home opener this week and their 1st game out of 4 straight at home. It’s interesting to note that last year, the Lions won a close one in Lambeau early in the season, and then almost won at home in the rematch (Hail Mary!). An issue for Detroit is that injuries are beginning to sap them of talent. Ziggy Ansah, their premier pass-rusher is out, and DeAndre Levy is most likely to miss this game as well. Of course Green Bay is without their best corner, as Sam Shields is still dealing with a concussion. We could see a shoot-out in this one. This one feels like too many points. Lean: DET +7

MIN @ CAR -7

Bradford on the road is more likely to revert to his old self than to the guy that looked so efficient against the Packers last week. Vikings really only have one offensive weapon left, and that’s Diggs. If Carolina takes him away (double team?), Bradford will revert to his self where he barely throws more than 5 yards down the field on each attempt. Hard to see this Vikings offense keep up with the Panthers on the road. Lean: CAR -7

SF @ SEA -9.5

In the pre-season this spread was -14 Seattle. It’s 4.5 points lower now, and below key numbers 10 and 14. That’s a pretty significant shift. Seattle almost lost to MIA and did lose @ LAR, but both of those were teams with strong D-lines. San Fran is much weaker in that department, and that should allow Wilson more time to make plays. I think Seattle is ready to breakout offensively soon and this could very well be this week. Lean: SEA -9.5

LAR @ TB -5.5

This one opened at -1 TB in the preseason, so this is another huge over-reaction here. I’m not even sure why the Rams are this big of a dog. They are coming off a huge win against Seattle in their home opener in LA, so I guess a let-down is possible. They do have to travel all the way to the East coast, though they play in the 4 PM EST slot not 1 PM. Regardless, this one feels like too many points. Winston was exposed last week @ Arizona, and I’d expect a similarly strong performance out of the Rams’ unit in week 3. Lean: LAR +5.5

PIT @ PHI +3.5

Philly beat CLE and CHI, two of the bottom-2 teams in the league so clearly they’re not getting any respect from the bookmakers with this line. Still, this is a team that has played really well the first two weeks. Philly is on a short week and with a rookie QB at the helm, even 1 day less for rest/preparation could be an issue. I can’t fade a home-dog this early in the season but this game is an easy pass IMO PASS

NYJ @ KC -3

KC lost to Houston last week, a team that looked absolutely horrendous on Thursday Night. Still, this is the NFL, and no team is truly as bad nor as good as they might look in one week. I think the Chiefs have a chance to bounce-back here. Jets might be top-10 defensively against the run but they’re been pretty awful against the pass so far (rank 29th in efficiency). Reid could spread them out and utilize a quick-hitting passing gamelan to move the ball in this one. On the other side, I think the Chiefs could have an easier time defensively. All three of the Jets top WR’s are banged up, though all will play I’d assume. Even less than optimal health could be an issue on the road in such a hostile environment. Jets’ bandwagon is filling up fast but the Chiefs are still a better team to me and they’re at home. Lean: KC -3

SD @ IND -2.5

Before the season started this line was -5.5 Colts. Now it’s significantly lower. The Chargers will be without Allen, Woodhead, and even possibly Gates. The Colts could be getting back their best CB in Davis. The perception out there is that Indy is significantly worse than San Diego. Not sure about ‘much worse’ but they are. My one concern is that the Chargers are missing so many key weapons and the other one is that the spread is below 3 now. No value unless you like Indy. PASS

CHI @ DAL -7

The loss of Cutler could actually be a good thing for the Bears, but the fact that they’ll be without key defensive players (Houston / Trevathan / Goldman) truly makes it tough for Chicago. Dallas showed that they can move the chains behind Prescott, and playing at home, I expect them to have a lot of success offensively. I’m wondering if Chicago can keep up. The offense is already horrendous and now the D will really fall off. This could very well be a blowout. Lean: DAL -7

Art Aronson

San Francisco at Seattle
Play: Seattle -9

Setting the scene: Seattle QB Russell Wilson is injured and the Seahawks offense has stalled as a result to open the 2016/17 campaign. The 49ers are 1-1, hammering the Rams 28-0 in their opener (the same team Seattle lost to last week 9-3), before then getting run over 46-27 in Carolina last week. We think the underachieving Seahawks offense finally shows up this year though as it looks to make a statement in this important early divisional contest.

San Francisco: It has more questions than answers on both sides of the ball. Note that it’s just 6-11 ATS in its last 17 on the road and only 1-3 ATS as a road dog in the 7.5 to ten points range.

Seattle: The defense and special teams remain strengths, clearly Wilson and the offense have a lot of work to do. Note though that the Seahawks are 8-4 ATS in their last 12 off a divisional contest and 12-8 ATS in their last 20 in front of the home town crowd.

The bottom line: We’re expecting another commanding defensive effort from Seattle and have no issues at all in laying this larger spread. Consider a second look at the SEAHAWKS this weekend.

Alex Smart

Redskins vs. Giants
Play: Giants -4½

In my humble opinion there is an obvious lack of cohesion in the Washington Redskins locker room and on the sidelines and most noticeably on the field. Losing your first two home games of the season, does not do alot for a teams confidence. Yes, I know QB Cousins has thrown for a big chunk yards through two games (693) but he has only 1 touchdown and three interceptions to show for it in his one man flying circus. Meanwhile the Gmen are performing at the proverbial opposite end of the performance spectrum with a 2-0 record. With QB Manning doing just enough , in between some top tier play from the Giants D, the home side looked poised to start their season 3-0. It must noted that NYG allowed the Saints just 3 /3rd down conversions in 13 tries in their last game a 16-13 win.

Redskins are 4-10-1 ATS in their last 15 games in Week 3.Giants are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games in Week 3.Home team is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings.Redskins are 3-8-1 ATS in their last 12 meetings in New York. Redskins are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 meetings.

Mike Lundin

San Diego at Indianapolis
Play San Diego +2½

The 1-1 San Diego Chargers will visit the winless Indianapolis Colts on Sunday afternoon, and this looks like a great spot to take the points on the visitors.

The Colts are struggling big time on the defensive side of the ball as they've surrendered 34 and 39 points in defeats to Detroit and Denver to start the season They're 0-6 ATS in their last six games after allowing more than 30 points in their previous game and 1-7 ATS in the last eight meetings with the Chargers.

San Diego's QB Philip Rivers threw for four TDs in last week's 38-14 blowout win against Jacksonville and he has a 70.0% completion rate with his passes on the season, a number which can be compared to Andrew Luck's 58.8 percent. Luck completed only 21 of 40 attempts for 197 yards with one TD and one INT against Denver last week, and running back Frank Gore is averaging just 3.8 yards per carry.

The Colts need their offense to bail out their subpar D, and that's not happening at the moment. Take the points on the Chargers, but we might not even need them as San Diego has a great chance to win this game outright.

Power Sports

Oakland vs. Tennessee
Pick: Tennessee

It can be like "pulling teeth" with these Titans sometimes, but they were a nice winner for me in Week 2 as they went to Detroit (as six-point dogs) and came from behind to take the game outright, 16-15. That was just their FIFTH cover (in 18 games) since the start of last season. So I'd say they're still "due" for some better results at the betting window. Meanwhile, I went AGAINST the Raiders and last week and came away victorious there as well. They lost outright, 35-28, as four-point favorites. Typically, I might look at those disparate results from the previous week and say there's some value on the team that lost outright going against the one off a SU dog win. But not in this particular instance. Sharp money seems to have pushed this line in the direction of Tennessee. Lay the small number.

When breaking down this Wk 3 matchup, there is no disputing which team seems to have the better defense. Through two games, the Titans' D has allowed just ONE offensive touchdown. Oakland's, while facing two better offenses, has given up 69 total points and over 1,000 total yards. That is worrisome, especially when taking their act on the road. The Raiders, keep in mind, are a 2-pt conversion away from being 0-2.

This is an early start time for Oakland, a situation that has typically not treated them well through the years. It's also a revenge game for the Titans, who did lose here at home to the Raiders last year, 24-21. I'm not as high on the Silver and Black this year. Tenessee should be improved.

Wunderdog

Arizona @ Buffalo
Pick: Buffalo +4.5

This is the squarest play on the board this week, courtesy of over 80% of the betting public buying the Arizona Cardinals as a road favorite. Arizona was one of the best teams in football last season, and this season they opened at home vs.Tom Brady-less New England team, and proceeded to lose. Arizona then took advantage of five Tampa Bay turnovers last week on the way to a 40-7 rout. How will that affect this week? Early in the season, teams that cover by 14 points or more, as a big favorite (-7 or more), and had the turnover advantage are 51-81 ATS in their next game. Such teams are generally overrated in their next game as the public lines up behind them, and the bookmakers shade the line. The reality is that this line should be a field goal or less, so we have line value on the Bills. Buffalo always seems to have high expectations coming into the season, but tend to never measure up. They have gone 16 seasons with just one winning campaign, and that was 9-7. They are in their best, most comfortable, and dangerous spot as they are playing at home as a dog. In that situation, they are 12-5 ATS since 2011. If you have a short memory, the last two NFC teams to come here as a favorite were the 2013 Panthers who finished 12-4 and lost outright, and the 2014 Packers, also finished 12-4 and lost outright in Buffalo. If you handicap this game on the numbers, Arizona is going to win. But, if you handicap this one on history, Buffalo gets the money at the very least, and when you add in that this is the biggest public play this week, there is only one way to go. Take the Bills and the points.

DAVE COKIN

RAVENS AT JAGUARS
PLAY: RAVENS -1

I’m not exactly impressed by what I’ve seen from Baltimore, but the bottom line is the team found a way to win each of its first two games and going back to last season, the Ravens are now on a 6-0 roll.

That contrasts favorably with the Jaguars. Jacksonville played okay in the loss to Green Bay, but they were awful and looked totally unprepared last week in a really ugly loss at San Diego. Going back to last season, the Jags are now on a 1-8 skid. I mention the endings of the 2015 season because both teams have basically picked up where they left off at the end of last year.

I have to think Gus Bradley is very close to getting canned as head coach of the Jaguars, as this was a put up or shut up season and with a loss here it might already be getting away from Jacksonville. It’s obviously possible the Jags could put things together here, as Baltimore has not been all that sharp in grabbing the two wins.

But I’d rather have the team with the positive momentum and there can’t be much question that’s the Ravens. Also, if this is close at the finish, I clearly trust John Harbaugh to find a way to get the best of it vs. the beleaguered Bradley. With the game priced where it is, I’ll go with the Baltimore side.

SPORTS WAGERS

TENNESSEE -2 over Oakland

The Raiders got away with one in Week 1 when Jack Del Rio went for a two-point conversion to win it in New Orleans and succeeded. If the Raiders were indeed ready to take that “next step” that so many were talking about, they had to follow that victory up with another one at home against Atlanta but that did not happen. Instead, the Raiders proved once again why they cannot be trusted. After two games against two weak defenses, Oakland is 1-1 and probably should be 0-2. Over the last few years when Oakland traveled, they were usually taking back at least four points and usually seven or more. This week they are only being offered 2-points because the Titans have been awful for years and the oddsmakers have the data that tells them that the Titans usually don’t take much money. Combine that with the Raiders popularity gaining steam again and the result is that we get Tennessee at a bargain price at home.

In Week 1, Tennessee was a home dog to the Vikes and led 10-0 at the half. The Titans had a chance to go up 17 early in the third quarter before everything went to hell. Two defensive TD’s by the Vikes on successive possessions by the Titans resulted in a 17 to 21 point swing in a matter of moments. Minnesota did not have an offensive TD in that game. The Titans out-gained, out-first-downed, out everythinged the Vikes but a 3-0 turnover advantage in favor of the fortunate visitor was the difference. Last week, the Titans defense was outstanding again, this time in Detroit against a Lions team that put up 39 points in Week 1. One cannot put too much weight on one game but back-to-back outstanding defensive efforts is something we’re not going to ignore, especially when the second one was on the road. We all saw Denver ride its defense to a Super Bowl win last year and while we’re not in any way suggesting the same fate awaits the Titans, we are suggesting that they are an under the radar team with upside that the market hasn’t bought into yet. That opens the door for this great opportunity to fade the Raiders, who will be traveling east for the second time in their first three games.

Pittsburgh -3½ over PHILADELPHIA

The Eagles are 2-0 thanks to a very balanced effort, an over-achiever at quarterback and the fact they played teams that are a combined 0-4. After just two weeks, the Eagles have done more than any team in the league to raise their stock, as they are now getting national attention for their quick turnaround from the disastrous Chip Kelly era. Their management team is receiving praise for its shrewd move to trade up and draft Carson Wentz after so many had criticized them at the time. While the Eagles are a nice story, the hard truth is they've played two games against awful teams. Browns garbage; Bears hot garbage. Wentz has very limited options, as we do not see Jordan Matthews as a number one receiver. Matthews is tied for the league lead in drops and that includes a sure TD bomb he let slip away on Monday night. The Eagles are getting just a little too much market attention right now so if there was a right time to sell high, this would be it.

As a preseason Super Bowl favorite, the Steelers are surprisingly not getting enough credit. They rolled the Redskins in Week 1 and they reminded the Bengals once again who “big brother” is after a 24-16 win at home last Sunday. Furthermore, the Steelers are playing great defense - they've long been tough to run on but now even the secondary has only allowed one passing touchdown. The offense is hitting on all cylinders but for whatever reason they are largely being overlooked this week. The biggest overreactions are to last week’s prime time games. The Eagles whacked the Bears on prime time in impressive fashion and the result is this deflated number on the Steelers. This is a in-state rivalry between two 2-0 teams but only one of them is legit. If played two weeks ago, the Steelers would have been a -9 point fav or more. If played last week, it would have been around -6. So yeah, the Eagles have done some nice things but there are a ton of weaknesses that have not been exploited by capable opponents yet. This opponent is massively capable and we get them at a cheap price.

San Diego +122 over INDIANAPOLIS

The Chargers overcame a devastating injury to their star wide receiver and a fourth quarter collapse in Week 1 to totally obliterate the Jaguars 38-14 last Sunday. Philip Rivers did whatever he wanted to an overwhelmed Jags secondary while tossing four touchdown passes in the process. Rivers hasn't thrown a pick this season. It’s only two weeks in but he’s been sharp and so has his protection. Remember, Rivers had a great season a year ago with no protection but this year that line is healthy and looking good. They Bolts are an inch away from being 2-0 and maybe even closer to back-to-back blowout victories to open the year but the market hasn’t noticed. This week Rivers will take a crack at a Colts defense that ranks 29th after two weeks after giving up 424 yards of total offense per game. Injuries and issues off the field have overshadowed what the Chargers have done sideline to sideline this season. That's fine with us, as Rivers and crew are playing with a huge chip on their shoulders, which makes them even more dangerous. This is a very good team.

It's a new season but these are the same old Colts. As much as they want to believe Andrew Luck is the next “great one” we're not so sure. 40-year-old Matt Hasselbeck played significantly better than Luck last season and while many note Luck playing hurt, his 28 picks in his last 23 games are a cause for concern. Yes, Luck is talented but he's a better fantasy football quarterback than he is in real life at this point. Besides, the Colts have done nothing to support their franchise pivot, as their weak offensive line might be worse than it was last year, which is actually hard to believe. Luck was on the run for his life last week in Denver, as he was sacked five times. It's not positive when your star QB is in danger of getting creamed on every snap. A three-point Colts’ win cashes a ticket here and a first glace that seems like a pretty good proposition. A short price like -2½ on a home favorite is a low percentage play that we do not recommend making. The odds makers could have made it -3 if they wanted equal action on the game but that ½ point taken off a key number like -3 to make it -2½ is enticing enough to get bettors to bite. In other words, beware of home favorites that are -2½

Lastly, the Colts have a very poor GM in Ryan Grigson and their supporting cast has not improved noticeably while San Diego’s has. The Colts are a mess and may be the most dubious favorite on the board this week. Chargers outright gets this call.

JACKSONVILLE +106 over Baltimore

We often say that the best time to jump on a team is when the market is jumping off and that applies to the Jaguars here. The other side of that coin holds true too in that the best to jump off is when the market is jumping on and that applies to the Ravens here. After Baltimore fell behind 20-0 in Cleveland last week, they rallied big time for a 25-20 victory. Baltimore is now 2-0. Meanwhile, the Jags were a popular pick last week and proceeded to get crushed in San Diego. Those that backed them this week are absolutely not anxious to come back on them this week, which is when we like to step in to pick up the scraps.

Despite rallying and winning last week, it feels more like the Ravens dodged a bullet rather than going into Cleveland and putting away the Brownies. The Ravens were outgained by Cleveland last week (including 65 yards on the ground) and they caught a dead Buffalo team, who has already fired its offensive coordinator, back in Baltimore in Week 1. If you quickly asked 100 people to name the two worst teams in the NFL, 100 of them would quickly come back with Buffalo and Cleveland. That is who the Ravens are 2-0 against and they were a -3 and -4 point favorite in those games respectively. The Ravens appear good statistically on defense because they have only hosted the dysfunctional Bills and then went against the Browns.

It’s not that Jacksonville is so undervalued here; it is that the Ravens are overvalued. After playing the offensive dregs that are Buffalo and Cleveland, the Ravens may come in with a sense of complacency but playing those two offenses cannot have served them well. The Ravens defense takes a huge step up in class when facing the Jaguars offense. In Week 1, Blake Bortles threw for over 300 yards against the Packers. Last week, Bortles threw for 317 yards in San Diego and the Jags outgained the Chargers by 54 yards. Turnovers and penalties have hurt the Jags, which are largely luck driven stats. The Jaguars at home figure to dig down as deep as they can to avoid a 0-3 start. This is the weakest matchup that they have faced thus far but if this game was played last week instead of this week, the Jags would absolutely have been at least a -3-point favorite. We get them at a bargain price this week because they are a 0-2 team versus a 2-0 team and we love bargain prices.

CINCINNATI -3½ over Denver

The 2-0 Denver Broncos are getting points. The Super Bowl Champs are getting points. Not only did the Broncos embarrass the Panthers in February, they opened up this year by beating them again in a game that Carolina wanted to win really, really badly. So let’s discuss the Denver Broncos. 11 of their 15 wins last season came by six points or less or one score. That means they were a play away from going 4-15 instead of 15-4. In all those victories, Denver had every bounce go their way. Recovering a fumble is not a skill. If it were, the turnovers stats would be relatively the same every season but they are not. For instance, you can count on Ben Roethlisberger, Aaron Rodgers, Tom Brady and Drew Brees being near or at the top of passing yards every year. You can count on the best WR’s to be consistently near the top of those stats every single year too. The top defenses are usually the top defenses every year with little variance. However, when it comes to penalty yardage and turnovers, you may as well throw the teams into a blender and pull them out because they vastly differentiate every single year from top to bottom without exception. Turnovers and penalties are luck driven numbers so when a team keeps winning by the slimmest of margins because of turnovers and penalties by the opposition, an evening out period is right around the corner.

In their 19 games last year, the Broncs were outgained in 14 of them and many of those were by a wide margin. One will quickly point to the Broncos great defense for their success but unbalanced teams of the past have never thrived liked the Broncos did last year. There have been many teams in the past with great offenses and no defenses that had great regular seasons but you can probably count on one hand the number of teams that thrived with no offense and a great defense. This year, Denver is 2-0 and it’s only because the Panthers were penalized for 85 yards on opening night. Denver was penalized for 22. Last week, the Broncs were in danger of losing at home to the Colts with a 16-13 lead going to the fourth. In points off turnovers, Denver held a 15-3 advantage against Indianapolis. The Broncos have been riding a string of incredible good fortune for far too long. Good team perhaps but not close to being a great one. NowTrevor Siemian will make his first start on the road in a hostile NFL environment and Denver is not getting enough points.

The Bengals have played two very tough road games against the Jets and Steelers. They now get their first home game. The Bengals are still waiting for any signs of a rushing offense to emerge and outside of A.J. Green's monster season opener, the offense has struggled. That said, it is premature to judge a team on just two games and without a home game. Andy Dalton has thrown for over 350 yards in the air in both games so it’s not like he’s struggling. Starting out against two good defenses on the road can only benefit the Bengals offense. However, we’re not predicating this choice on the Bengals offense going off. We’re pr4edicating it on Denver’s luck running out in their first road game of the season. Denver’s offense is extremely simple.Trevor Siemian has not been impressive in that simple offense with three turnovers but they have not hurt the Broncs yet. What we envision here is great field position all game for Cinci and them pulling away at some point and never looking back.

NOTE: We can lay -3½ all day long and will very likely have that option on Sunday too. However, there is also a good chance that we can lay -3 with normal juice so we're going to wait for a better number on this one before pulling the trigger. We'll update this as soon as we officially step in.