Tony George
Vikings vs. Panthers
Play: Under 42
Yes, the oddsmakers have put a big number, for the NFL anyway, on the Carolina Panthers here at -7, a full touchdown favorite over the Minnesota Vikings, fresh off a great showing in their new stadium home opener against the hated Green Bay Packers. Sam Bradford actually looked like an NFL Quarterback in that game, but the worst news out of that game was Adrian Peterson was lost for the next 8 weeks minimum with a knee injury that has already been surgically repaired.
The Panthers won with ease in a score fest against the Niners last week at home but I want everyone to hold the presses a minute. The last time Carolina faced a good defense they lost to Denver to open the season and scored 20 points. The Vikings managed 17 points last week against a bad defense. Let’s do the math here for a minute. The strength of the Panthers is their defense and they will get after Sam Bradford like none other today. I am not sold on Bradford and never have been since he left Oklahoma, he likes to turn it over and hang on to the ball too long, and against this pass rush of Carolina, that is doom. Also the Vikings after 2 weeks rank 28th in total yards on offense in the NFL.
On the other side of the ball for the Vikings is a well-coached, lean and mean defense that can give any QB fits, just ask Aaron Rodgers. Cam Netwon will be held in check and without RB Stewart this week, that also opens the door to a nonproductive offense for the Panthers against this Vikings defense. The Vikings defense after 2 weeks ranks 5th in the NFL.
All in all, I can see the Vikings making a game of this and taking the 7 points with the underdog Vikes in a low scoring affair is very tempting, but I am not sure Bradford and company can put up more than 10 points here in all honesty. When looking at the Las Vegas Line value, in my opinion it is not the side play, but the Totals play and the line at 43 totals points that has value. I can easily see neither team getting past 17-20 points here and I think this will be a defensive battle from wire to wire and points at a premium.
Scott Spreitzer
Raiders vs. Titans
Play: Titans +1½
We like what we have seen from Marcus Mariota now that the former Oregon signal-call has a HC who understands you actually have to pass block. Mariota has completed 68% of his passes thus far with 4 TDs and 2 INTs. We are getting what we expected a season ago from TE Delanie Walker (questionable), while Tajae Sharpe & DeMarco Murray have 11 and 12 receptions, respectively. Murray has also averaged over 5 yards per carry. Yes, the Titans started just 2-9 SU in 2015, but they were just 15 points away from a 7-4 SU record through 11 games. They're healthier this season and have made quality moves to shore-up some of what plagued them last season. Oakland has been a public darling since Over/Under win totals and odds to win the Super Bowl were posted months ago. The defense, however, has not held-up thus far. The Raider defense is dead-last, 32nd in the NFL in yards passing allowed and total yards allowed per game, and they're 31st in ppg allowed. Oakland won here last year, 24-21. Despite a plus-two turnover margin and Titan injuries, the Raiders still needed a game-winning TD in the closing 90-seconds of the game.
Ray Monohan
Chargers vs. Colts
Play: Colts -1½
The Colts are in the danger zone. Indianapolis has started the season 0-2 and returns home in need of a victory. This is the type of game where Andrew Luck steps up. Luck has looked good this season, but it's been the defense that has let him down.
He has tossed for 5 touchdowns this season, but getting on the same page with TY Hilton is a must here. As for the Chargers, QB Philip Rivers has lost both WR Keenan Allen and Danny Woodhead, two guys he really relies on.
The Chargers offense is in a lot of trouble and will get a very frustrated and fired up Colts defense in this one.
Some trends to note. Colts are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games in Week 3. Colts are 21-9 ATS in their last 30 games following a straight up loss.
Look for Andrew Luck to have a lot of designed plays to TY Hilton early on, which will get the two in rhythm as the game goes on. Take the better QB at home here.
National League
Cardinals @ Cubs
Martinez is 5-1, 2.80 in his last seven starts; his last four stayed under. Cardinals are 7-1 in his last eight road starts.
Lester is 6-0, 0.72 in his last seven starts; his last eight stayed under the total. Chicago won his last eight home starts.
Cardinals won five of last seven games; five of their last seven games stayed under. Chicago won four of last five games; four of their last six games stayed under.
Nationals @ Pirates
Cole is 0-1, 5.79 in his last three starts; three of his last four stayed under.
Glasnow is 0-1, 6.48 in two MLB starts (over 1-1).
Nationals lost five of last seven games; under is 11-4-1 in their last 15 road games. Pittsburgh won seven of last ten games; over is 6-3-1 in their last ten games.
Phillies @ Mets
Thompson is 2-1, 3.09 in his last four starts; under is 3-1-1 in his last five. He is 0-2, 9.00 in three road starts.
Gsellman is 1-1, 2.86 in his last four starts (under 3-2).
Phillies lost five of last six road games; their last six games went over. Mets lost four of last six games; five of their last six games went over.
Reds @ Brewers
Finnegan is 1-2, 3.91 in his last five starts (under 4-1). Reds are 6-9 in his road starts.
Peralta is 2-1, 3.04 in his last four starts; four of his last five stayed under. Milwaukee is 4-5 in his home starts.
Reds lost eight of last ten games; under is 8-3 in their last 11 road games. Milwaukee is 6-4 in its last ten games; under is 4-1-1 in their last six home games.
Giants @ Padres
Blach is making first MLB start; he was 14-7, 3.43 in 26 AAA starts this year, he’s thrown six scoreless innings in two relief stints.
Richard is 3-0, 1.74 in his last five starts (under 5-2). he is 2-1, 1.86 in three home starts.
Giants lost five of last eight games; three of their last four games went over. San Diego is 6-10 in last 16 home games; six of last eight Padre games stayed under the total.
Rockies @ Dodgers
Anderson 0-1, 6.27 in his last three starts; four of his last five stayed under. Colorado is 1-5 in his road starts.
Hill is 3-2, 1.53 in five starts for the Dodgers (under 4-1).
Colorado is 4-15 in last 19 road games; over is 9-4 in their last 13 road games. Dodgers won ten of last 11 home games; under is 12-6 in their last 18 games.
American League
New York @ Toronto
Pineda is 0-1, 4.13 in his last five starts; New York is 6-8 in his road starts. Over is 7-3 in his last ten starts.
Estrada is 1-3, 5.95 in his last four starts; over is 5-2-1 in his last eight. Toronto is 1-5 in his last six home starts.
New York lost eight of last ten games; over is 6-3 in their last nine games. Blue Jays won four of last five games; under is 8-2-2 in Jays’ last 12 games.
Red Sox @ Rays
Rodriguez is 1-1, 3.57 in his last four starts; under is 10-2 in his last 12. Boston is 6-4 in his road starts.
Odorizzi is 0-1, 5.09 in his last four starts; four of his last five stayed under the total. Rays won his last five home starts.
Tampa Bay lost five of last six games; under is 7-2-2 in their last 11 home games. Boston won its last ten games; six of last seven Boston games stayed under the total.
Royals @ Tigers
Volquez is 0-1, 7.92 in his last five starts; over is 8-2-1 in his last 11 starts. Royals won three of his last four road starts.
Boyd is 1-2, 4.82 in his last three starts; under is 5-2-1 in his last eight. Detroit is 6-2 in his home starts.
Royals are 6-11 in last 17 games; four of KC’s last six road games stayed under the total. Detroit won five of its last six games; under is 15-7-2 in Tigers’ last 24 home games.
White Sox @ Indians
Rodon is 0-2, 12.00 in his last two starts; over is 5-2 in his last seven. Chicago is 3-9 in his road starts.
Tomlin is 1-0, 1.54 in his last two starts; under is 4-1-1 in his last six. Indians are 9-4 in his home starts.
White Sox lost six of last seven games; over is 11-1 in their last 12 road games. Cleveland won eight of last ten home games; over is 8-6 in their last 14 home games.
Angels @ Astros
Wright is 0-2, 7.36 in his three starts for the Angels. (over 1-1-1).
Musgrove is 1-0, 3.09 in his last two starts (under 5-3-1). Astros are 2-2 in his home starts.
Angels won their last four games; under is 9-2-1 in Halos’ last 12 games. Astros lost their last three games; their bullpen allowed 14 runs the last two days. Three of last four Houston games went over the total.
Mariners @ Twins
Walker is 2-1, 2.79 in his last three starts; three of his last four went over. Seattle is 2-7 in his road starts.
Santiago is 2-1, 3.26 in his last five starts (under 4-1). Twins are 2-3 in his home starts.
Mariners are 9-5 in last 14 games, 7-1 in last eight on road; under is 7-3-2 in their last 12 road games. Minnesota lost seven of last eight games; five of their last seven games stayed under.
Rangers @ A’s
Lewis is 0-3, 6.89 in his last three starts; four of his last five stayed under. Texas is 5-3 in his road starts.
Cotton is 1-0, 2.50 in his first three MLB starts (under 2-1).
Rangers are 9-5 in last 14 games; under is 9-3 in their last 11 games. Oakland lost its last eight home games- they got shut out last two days; eight of last ten Oakland home games stayed under the total.
Interleague
Diamondbacks @ Orioles
Miller is 0-6, 8.36 in his last seven starts; three of his last four stayed under. Three of his last four road starts stayed under.
Gallardo is 1-4, 9.13 in his last five starts; three of his last four went over. Baltimore lost his last four home starts.
Arizona lost seven of last eight road games; six of last seven Arizona road games stayed under. Orioles lost four of last six games; under is 17-1-1 in last 19 games at Camden Yards.
Teams’ record when this pitcher starts
StL-Chi– Martinez 16-13; Lester 23-7
Wsh-Pitt– Cole 1-5; Glasnow 1-1
Phil-NY– Thompson 3-6; Gsellman 2-3
Cin-Mil– Finnegan 12-19; Peralta 8-13
Colo-LA– Anderson 8-10; Hill 3-2/9-5
SF-SD– Blach 0-0; Richard 5-2
NY-Tor– Pineda 15-15; Estrada 14-13
Bos-TB– Rodriguez 7-11; Odorizzi 15-16
KC-Det– Volquez 16-16; Boyd 10-7
Chi-Clev– Rodon 11-15; Tomlin 19-8
LA-Hst– Wright 0-3; Musgrove 4-5
Sea-Min– Walker 9-14; Santiago 4-5/16-6
Tex-A’s– Lewis 10-7; Cotton 2-1
Az-Balt– Shipley 5-4; Bundy 7-6
Starting pitchers allowing 1+ runs in first inning
StL-Chi– Martinez 5-29; Lester 7-30
Wsh-Pitt– Cole 0-6; Glasnow 1-2
Phil-NY– Thompson 3-9; Gsellman 1-5
Cin-Mil– Finnegan 8-31; Peralta 9-21
Colo-LA– Anderson 5-18; Hill 4-18
SF-SD– Blach 0-0; Richard 0-7
NY-Tor– Pineda 10-30; Estrada 10-27
Bos-TB– Rodriguez 4-18; Odorizzi 5-31
KC-Det– Volquez 8-32; Boyd 3-17
Chi-Clev– Rodon 7-26; Tomlin 12-27
LA-Hst– Wright 2-3; Musgrove 2-9
Sea-Min– Walker 4-23; Santiago 14-31
Tex-A’s– Lewis 8-17; Cotton 0-3
Az-Balt– Shipley 1-9; Bundy 4-13
Umpires
Wsh-Pitt– Over is 9-3 in last twelve Baker games.
Phil-NY– Under is 11-4 in last fifteen West games.
Cin-Mil– Over is 6-3 in May’s last nine games.
Colo-LA– Six of last seven Ripperger games went over.
SF-SD– Five of last six Fagan games went over total.
StL-Chi– Favorites won six of last eight Culbreth games
NY-Tor– Over is 7-4 in last eleven Cuzzi games.
Bos-TB– Under is 5-2-1 in last eight Holbrook games.
KC-Det– Four of last six Iassogna games went over.
Chi-Clev– Underdogs are 6-4 in last ten Miller games.
LA-Hst– Underdogs are 7-4 in last eleven Fairchild games.
Sea-Min– Underdogs are 6-4 in last ten Layne games.
Tex-A’s– Under is 8-4 in last twelve Morales games.
Az-Balt– Four of last six Hickox games stayed under.
Armadillosports.com
Mike Rose
Baltimore Ravens at Jacksonville Jaguars
Play: Jacksonville Jaguars +100
The Jags have dropped each of their first two games of the year while the Ravens come in 2-0. However, putting each teams overall bodies of work under a microscope tells a much different story. The Ravens, while undefeated, only managed a 13-7 defeat of the Bills at home – the same team the Jets just punked in Buffalo. It also had to fight back from a 20-2 deficit at Cleveland to pull out the 25-20 win over a terrible Browns team.
Now I get the 35-14 trouncing at the hands of San Diego will scare most away from this short ugly home dog, but keep in mind, Bortles and company had Green Bay on the ropes in Week 1 and was driving for the win at the tail end of the game but failed to administer the knockout blow. This is a team much better than its 0-2 mark while the Ravens, though better than last season, aren’t as good as their record.
I can't stress enough how big a game this is for the Jags. That doesn't necessarily mean that automatically sends their backers back to the betting window. It does however put a check mark in the motivation side for the home team who by no means expected to be 0-3 to start the season after going all in in free agency and the draft this past offseason. Jacksonville scored the 22-20 outright win at Baltimore last season as 5 point dogs, and with this line at -1 in favor of the visitor, it tells me linemakers think the Ravens are the better overall team. I disagree, and will pay to make Baltimore show me differently.
Chicago Bears at Dallas Cowboys
Play: Chicago Bears +7
Injuries have run rampant in the Bears locker room ever since the preseason. The defense will be without Danny Trevathan this week, while the offense will be led by Brian Hoyer instead of Jay Cutler. Not sure that’s a terrible thing, but regardless, who in their right mind is going to want to take the points this week against the might Dallas Cowboys on Sunday Night Football?
Taking a look at the percentage of bets written across the net, the results are skewed. However, the one constant is that more of the overall money and tickets are backing the home team laying the touchdown. Sportsbook around the world will be pulling for the ugly dog Bears to come through on SNF, and I recommend you get on their side for this one.
Not because the books always win, but because Chicago has owned this rivalry of late and you’re better off taking a Bic to whatever money you plan on throwing down on the Cowboys instead of calling the bet in. One out I saw had 99.15% of the bets taken on Dallas – that’s simply criminal!
Big D checks in a bankroll killing 0-6 ATS its L/6 following a win, 0-4 ATS its L/4 as a home chalk and 3-9 ATS its L/12 vs. the NFC. If that’s not enough to make you cringe, the Cowboys are just 1-3 SU & ATS the L/4 times they took on Chicago as well as 0-2 SU & ATS the last tw
Oskeim Sports
Minnesota Vikings at Carolina Panthers
Play: Carolina Panthers -7
NFL teams coming off an upset win (i.e. won as an underdog) are a money-burning 419-473 ATS in their next game, which makes sense since amateur bettors tend to overreact to short-term results and/or small sample sizes. NFL teams coming off an upset win at home are an even worse 149-205 ATS in their next game, giving us a solid 57.9% ATS winning proposition with the Panthers this afternoon. Finally, NFL home teams matched up against an opponent off an upset win at home are a profitable 151-106 ATS (58.8% win rate).
Minnesota is coming off an emotionally-charged upset win over the Packers in its season-opener and now have to travel to play an explosive Carolina squad that is averaging 40.4 points in their last seven home games. The Vikings will also be without the services of running back Adrian Peterson, who suffered a torn meniscus in his right knee, and left tackle Matt Kalil, who underwent surgery to repair a labrum tear in his right hip.
The loss of Kalil is significant in that quarterback Sam Bradford was pressured on 31.4% of his dropbacks last week despite the fact that he had the 10th-fastest release in the league. Carolina's stout defense has forced three-and-outs on 48.1% of their opponent's possessions this season, which leads the league. Finally, let's not forget the fact that Sam Bradford has underperformed throughout his NFL career and actually lost the starting job to a rookie who played on a limited basis during the preseason.
With Carolina standing at 9-2 ATS at home since the start of last season, including 4-1 ATS when favored by less than a touchdown (keep an eye on the line), lay the points with the Panthers and invest with confidence.
Buster Sports
Browns at Dolphins
Play: Under 42.5
Cleveland heads into Miami on Sunday with a whole bunch of injury's and starting their 3rd QB of the year in their 3rd game. Looks like they might be going for the Number 1 draft choice this year already. Miami finally comes home after playing their first 2 games on the road. With Cody Kessler at QB, Cleveland will try not to make too many mistakes and run the ball against the leagues 30 th ranked rush defense. The Cleveland defense will have to step up their game as well if they have any chance of just staying in the game. Miami will try to establish the run as well and once they take a big lead will play the clock management game. The reason this play is on the under and not on Miami is because we just cant trust the Dolphins and the backdoor cover could come into play here. At the time of this writing the total is 42 1/2, but we had it at 41 so we believe there is some value here. Backing our selection is the fact that the UNDER is 6-0 in the Browns last 6 road games, also the UNDER is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings between the teams and the fact that the UNDER is 6-1 in the Dolphins last 7 games on grass. All signs point UNDER the total.
Bryan Leonard
Redskins at Giants
Play: Giants -4.5
Just can't trust the Redskins on the road who haven't produced a winning spread record away from home since 2012. This is a one dimensional team who can't run the football and must live with the inaccurate arm of Kirk Cousins. The Giants have won the past six meetings and really improved its defense in the offseason. The Giants are a true divisional contender while the Redskins are looking more and more like the cellar dweller in this division.
David Banks
Bears vs. Cowboys
Pick: Bears +6.5
Can things get any worse for the Chicago Bears? Starting quarterback Jay Cutler is likely out after injuring his right thumb in last Monday night’s loss to Philadelphia. Brian Hoyer is expected to start in Cutler’s absence. Cutler is not the only Bear listed on the injury report. Chicago lost LB Lamarr Houston for the rest of the season after an ACL injury. Nose tackle Eddie Goldman left the game with the Eagles in the fourth quarter with an ankle injury. Running back Ka’Deem Carey is nursing a sore hamstring and LB Danny Trevathan has a thumb injury. Oh, and the Bears play Dallas on Sunday night.
The Bears are 0-2 and, historically, have not done well without Cutler. In 2011, the Bears were 7-3 before a thumb injury ended the quarterback’s season. Chicago finished 8-8 and did not make the postseason. Yes, it’s a long season, but the number of teams that start 0-3 and make the playoffs is not very long.
Dallas will start rookie quarterback Dak Prescott, who won his first game last week. Prescott has yet to throw an interception and continues to get more and more comfortable in the Cowboys’ offense. The Bears allowed Eagles rookie Carson Wentz to look more like a veteran last week in the Bears’ loss. Prescott will rely on WR Cole Beasley and TE Jason Witten in the Cowboys passing game. The pair has combined for 25 receptions, which is second-best in the NFL. Only Brandin Cooks and Willie Snead in New Orleans have combined for more.
The Dallas offense, particularly a solid offensive line, has helped the Cowboys control the time of possession battle. Dallas has eight drives of over five minutes thus far. If the Cowboys are able to control the ball against Chicago, the Bears are in danger of facing another loss.
Harry Bondi
Redskins / Giants Over 46
The Redskins have been a dead-nuts “over” team, going over not only in the first two weeks of this season when they have allowed over 800 yards of offense and 65 points, but they have also gone over in seven straight games dating back to last season. The Skins have also gone over in 10 of their last 16 road games. As for the Giants, despite going under in Week 1 and 2 this year, they have still gone over in 21 of their last 33 games overall.
Bob Balfe
Packers -6.5 & Over 47
The Lions Defense is a mess right now. This front seven is all banged up so Green Bay and Aaron Rodgers should have no problem moving the football today. Detroit is not healthy at the running back spot so you are going to see Stafford throwing the ball a lot. There is a lot of new talent on this team that can move the chains. Green Bay has a few key injuries themselves on defense. I believe this is a game in which both teams will move the ball, but in the end the lack of running game for Detroit will be the reason they fall behind to the Packers. This is a perfect spot to play side and total. No parlays. Take the Packers and the Over.
Brady Kannon
Carolina -7
The Vikings are a very formidable opponent and they have a very good defense but I also feel that Carolina is beginning to catch its stride after a disappointing season opener in Denver and a slight scare last week with San Francisco in which they began to show some signs of the team we saw that they can be last season.
Cam Newton is 7-and-0 ATS at home against opponents with a winning percentage of .750 or better, meaning he plays well against good teams on his home turf. Minnesota is off of a very emotional win over division rival Green Bay in their new stadium home opener, with Sam Bradford stealing the show as the new signal caller. I sense some let down here this week and it won't help to not have the services of Adrian Peterson in the backfield. I also feel that this Carolina defense is a much different animal than that of Green Bay and they should be able to force some turnovers. Ron Rivera is very successful ATS at 49-36-and-1 and is 8-and-1 as a home favorite versus a team off of a SU win. Vikings Head Coach, Mike Zimmer counters with some very successful ATS trends as well here in this spot but most of all, I feel like the home team is in good position to pull away in this game versus an opponent that should level off a bit after such a big victory last Sunday night.
Chris Jordan
Last time we spoke here, I gave you the Philadelphia Eagles on the moneyline against the Chicago Bears. Easy winner. Today I want you laying the 10 points with the Miami Dolphins over the Cleveland Browns.
The Cleveland Browns are starting their third quarterback in as many weeks. Rookie Cody Kessler becomes the Browns' 26th starter since 1999, replacing the injured Josh McCown, who replaced the injured Robert Griffin III.
And once again, the Browns are going to struggle, and lose. Badly.
Yes, I know the Dolphins gave up 465 yards to an offense led by two New England Patriots backups, including 326 passing. But those backups had a much better supporting cast than Kessler has.
And as if it didn't appear the Browns are going to be in big trouble this season, Kessler lost his top target when rookie wide receiver Corey Coleman broke his hand in practice Wednesday.
The Browns are in a stretch of playing three road games in four weeks. That's just not a good way to start the season when you're chock full of rookies. This team may even give some time to Terrelle Pryor, the quarterback turned receiver who has reportedly gotten better every time he's stepped the field. It won't do any good, though, as the Dolphins will dominate.
Lay the home chalk.
2* DOLPHINS
Brad Wilton
My comp play release for Week Three in the NFL will be the underdog Redskins plus the points at MetLife Stadium against their division-rivals the Giants.
Washington is off to an 0-2 start both straight up and against the spread, while New York has won both of their games, but against the spread they are 0-1-1 - both as the favorite.
Let's face facts, a Washington loss today means you can pretty much put a fork in their season, so you can expect a very real sense of urgency attached to this game for coach Jay Gruden.
I am aware of the fact the Redskins are just 1-5 both straight up and against the spread the last 6 times these teams have met, but with the way the Giants have once again had a penchant for playing them close, I think grabbing the points with the desperate defending NFC East Division Champions is the way to go on Sunday afternoon.
Grab the points and the 'Skins.
4* WASHINGTON
Scott Delaney
My free winner is on the Pittsburgh Steelers, laying the points against the Philadelphia Eagles, in a battle of contender vs. pretender.
No, I don't think the Eagles are real whatsoever. They beat a troubled and terrible Chicago Bears team. Big deal. The Steelers are easily one of the two best teams in football right now. I don't care about the Eagles being 2-0 - they beat two bad teams. Now it's time for them to meet a real defense.
It's also time the Eagles' fourth-ranked defense meet a real offense, after facing the Browns and Bears. And my money is on Ben Roethlisberger, all-pro wide receiver Antonio Brown and NFL leading rusher DeAngelo Williams.
Philadelphia will have trouble moving the ball today, as I expect the Eagles to be pinned deep in their own territory thanks to Pittsburgh punter Jordan Berry, who has skydived half his 10 punts inside the 20. His 42.8 net yard average ranks seventh overall and has been key in making things harder on opponents.
Look for the Steelers to dominate this game from wire to wire, and in every aspect of this game.
3* STEELERS