Bob Valentino
My free play is on the Indianapolis Colts over the San Diego Chargers.
Philip Rivers has yet to throw an interception this season and comes into this game with a 120.3 passer rating. Today it changes. My experience with this guy is right when it looks to be good, things will go bad. This dude finds ways to lose games. He is not as good as his numbers.
I don't see him being able to make it three straight productive weeks, even against a banged-up Colts secondary allowing nearly 300 yards a game.
Admittedly, all I've seen and read online are picks on the Bolts. Nobody is expecting the Colts to win. That's probably why the number has dropped to a near pick'em. I'm not falling for it.
Take the home favorite.
2* COLTS
Scott Rickenbach
Bucs -3½
Earlier in the week this line shot up as high as a -6. Now, on Sunday morning the line is down to as low as a -3.5 and that is offering exceptional line value on the home team in this one. The Rams are off of a huge win in their home opener as they upset the division rival Seahawks. Make no mistake about it that was a huge win for Los Angeles but the Rams still have not scored a touchdown this season! While LA certainly could be flat after such a big win, the Bucs are very hungry here as they got blasted at Arizona thanks in part to FIVE turnovers. Undoubtedly, Tampa Bay will have things cleaned up this week and they are hosting a Rams team that, when off of a win over Seattle, has gone 0-3 in their next game and lost those contests by a combined 44 points! When the Rams are in non-divisional action and on the road as a dog, they are on a 4-8 ATS run their last 12. Also, overall, when off of a game against the Seahawks (win or lose!) the Rams have gone just 1-6 ATS in their very next game. This is a flat spot for Los Angeles and it is also a "play on" spot for the Bucs after the beating they took last week.
John Ryan
Titans +1½
Through the first two weeks of the season, Tennessee defense has been pretty efficient at limiting opposing team points, having only allowed two offensive touchdowns. Oakland’s defense cannot say the same, as they have allowed over 1,000 yards through the first two games, allowing an average of eight yards per play to the opposing offense. In regards to rushing game, Oakland’s defense allows an average of 4.5 yards per carry and 113.5 yards per game to opposing team running backs. With Murray and Henry both possibly getting time against Oakland, it is possible that they combine to have a big day on the ground to compliment the passing game. Mariota has performed well so far this year, and if Delanie Walker plays, look for them to make a big impact on this game. Though it may be a shootout, look for Tennessee to beat Oakland in Week 3 of NFL play.
Dave Price
Lions/Packers Under 47.5
I always lean toward taking UNDERS in division rivalry games. The Packers and Lions are perceived to be two dynamic offenses, but that simply isn't the case. The Packers struggled last year on offense and they are off to a slow start this season as well. They are only averaging 20.5 points and 278.5 yards per game through two weeks. They have been good defensively, though, giving up 20.0 points and 316.0 yards per game. The Lions are coming off a 16-15 loss to the Titans last week. Last year the Lions won 18-16 at Green Bay. The Packers got revenge with a 27-23 road win, but that contest was at 43 combined points until the Packers hit a hail mary on the game's final play. Detroit is 9-0 UNDER in road games after playing a home game over the last 3 seasons. The Packers are 9-1 UNDER after playing their last game on the road over the last 2 years. The UNDER is 14-5 in Lions last 19 road games. The UNDER is 6-0 in Packers last 6 home games.
Brandon Lee
Mariners -140
I'm coming right back with Seattle on Sunday, as the Mariners should have no problem bouncing back from yesterday's defeat. Seattle will once again have a clear edge on the mound, as they send out Taijuan Walker against Hector Santiago. Walker has really pitched well of late, posting a 2.79 ERA and 1.086 WHIP in his last 3 starts. Santiago on the other hand has struggled to the tune of a 4.00 ERA and 1.444 WHIP in his last 3 starts. He was hit especially hard in his last outing, giving up 6 runs on 7 hits at home to the Tigers. Mariners are 23-8 in their last 31 road games against a team that's won fewer than 40% of their home games and 5-0 in their last 5 during Game 3 of a series. Twins are 0-7 in their last 7 off a win and 0-4 in their last 4 during Game 3 of a series.
SPORTS WAGERS
OAKLAND -105 over Texas
The Rangers punched their ticket to the playoffs with a victory yesterday. The Rangers will very likely end up with the best record in the AL but they are a good fade today after the celebrations. Figure the Rangers to rest some starters here too. The pitching matchup of Colby Lewis versus Jharel Cotton favors the Athletics too. Cotton is coming off a two-hit, 0 walks, 6 K gem in six frames against the Astros while Lewis is coming off two months on the DL and two subsequent below average starts that the Rangers lost both times.
This is a strong situational play that the price will allow us to step into.
N.Y. Yankees +136 over TORONTO
The Yanks have gone cold but that is still not going to deter us from backing them at these prices in a pitching matchup that so heavily favors them. The last time Michael Pineda faced the Blue Jays, he had a 5-0 lead in the 5th back in New York when the rains came and a subsequently 45 minute rain delay. Pineda did not return and the Jays rallied to win but Pineda was making them look foolish up there.
After enduring a 6.33 ERA in April and a 7.52 ERA in May, despite outstanding skills, Michael Pineda finally posted a 2.75 ERA 0.97 WHIP in June. But he was back to his early season returns in July and August with a 4.80 ERA. Michael Pineda is the poster boy for how luck plays a factor in this game and how it could follow one around, either good or bad for months at a time. Pineda has an xERA this season of 3.40. His xERA in his last six starts is 2.67, which is the third highest in the majors over that span. Pineda has been hurt by more than his share of misfortune and should have some of the best surface stats in baseball. He has been stung badly by hit rate, strand rate, and hr/f (17%) bad luck. Yankee Stadium's net +55% HR park factor is second in the majors only to Miller Park and is certainly a factor here. The 1½+ run gap between Pineda's ERA & xERA screams for a correction, as does his command numbers. Pineda sports an elite strikeout rate (199 in 165 IP) with sufficient swinging strikes to validate it and his control sub-indicators support it all. Pineda has the talent and tools to pitch at the front of a rotation but he’s not priced like it.
The question here is will luck win over skill. It could but Marco Estrada is the opposite of Pineda. Estrada’s 3.62 ERA is much lower than his 5.22 xERA. Over his last 32 innings, Estrada has walked 15 batters. Over his last 32 innings, Estrada’s groundball/fly-ball rate continues to be one of the worst in the game at 30%/49%. In his last start, Estrada’s groundball rate was 21%. Estrada continues to wiggle out of jams with a high strand rate. Everything that Estrada does with the exception of getting guys to swing and miss on his changeup, is luck driven. From his low hit-rate to his high strand rate, to his hard hit balls being hit at people to his warning track shots just missing, Estrada is a rare pitcher that is behind in the count to almost every batter he faces and gets away with that too. That doesn’t mean that Estrada’s luck will not hold up here, as it very well could. What it does mean is that his surface numbers are not sustainable and whether it’s this year, next year or in the playoffs, Estrada is in for another major swoon, just like the one he had in mid-August.
Wunderdog
Chicago @ Cleveland
Pick: Chicago +140
Cleveland is closing in on a division title, but they found the going won't be easy against a Chicago White Sox team with outstanding pitching. Jose Quintana shut down the Indians yesterday as a dog, 8-1, and now the White Sox go with Carlos Rodon, with the team 8-5 his last 13 starts. Cleveland goes with righty Josh Tomlin (4.61 ERA), with the team 3-6 his last nine after a disastrous 0-5 August with an 11.48 ERA. He is a .500 pitcher at home the last four years (11-11 with a 4.74 ERA), and the Indians are 9-19 when their opponent allows two runs or less in their previous game.