Free Picks for Sunday September 3rd, 2017 from some of the nations best and worst handicappers.
Allen Eastman
Virginia Tech (-4) over West Virginia
I like Virginia Tech in this one. The Hokies have a somewhat of a home-field advantage with this game in Landover, and I think that will come in to play in this one. This Tech team remembers what it was like to get blown out of their big nonconference game last year against Tennessee. They won't let that happen again here. The Hokies have an outstanding veteran defense, and I think that turnovers and special teams advantages will help them get this win. West Virginia has just eight returning starters from last year's 10-win team. They have a lot of work to do on both offense and defense, and they are breaking in a new quarterback that sat out last season after transferring. West Virginia is just 1-12 SU in its last 13 games against teams ranked in the Top 25. I like the Hokies to get the job done.
Jim Feist
Angels at Rangers
Pick: Over 11.5
This is a good offensive park and the Angels are on a 5-1 run over the total. Starter Andrew Heaney (5.63 ERA) threw badly in his lone road start. Texas is 32-15-4 over the totla at home against a team with a winning record. Martin Perez (4.98 ERA) has a 5.48 ERA at home this season.
DAVE COKIN
DIAMONDBACKS AT ROCKIES
PLAY: DIAMONDBACKS -104
There’s almost always one team each baseball season that appears to be bound for the playoffs, but ends up melting down the stretch and missing out. It’s sure looking like the Rockies are headed down that road right now.
The problem for Colorado is simple enough. This team can suddenly not buy a hit with runners in scoring position. The Rockies have been almost unbelievably awful in this scenario for the last few weeks. It seems clear to me they’re pressing badly.
Godley vs. Marquez is the pitching matchup today. The Arizona righty might be wearing down a bit as his control has ben shaky of late. Marquez has pretty much established himself as the most reliable of the Colorado starters. But even if I give a slight mound advantage to Marquez, the rest points to the Snakes. Arizona is in very good form at the present time. And the bottom line is they’re hitting when it counts, and the Rockies sure aren’t.
I have to side with the Diamondbacks here.
Mike Lundin
Diamondbacks vs. Rockies
Play: Diamondbacks -102
The Arizona Diamondbacks will be looking to extend their season-high winning streak to 10 here in the finale of a three-game series with the Colorado. The reeling Rockies are just 4-9 L13 overall (1-6 L7 home at Coors Field), and I think this looks like a fair price on the red hot visitors.
Arizona hands the ball to Zack Godley (6-7, 3.29 ERA) who was earned the W against the Dodgers his last time out despite giving up four runs on six hits in six innings. Godley has posted a solid 3.11 ERA in 11 road starts on the season and he held the Rockies to three runs on four hits in seven innings of a 10-3 victory here at Colorado back in June.
Colorado turns to German Marquez (10-5, 4.18 ERA). The Rockies have won three of his last four starts despite the 22 year old allowing a total of 14 runs through 22 1/3 innings of work. Note that he's served up a total of seven homers in those starts, so not a good time to take on the D'Backs powerful lineup.
Two NL West rivals heading in opposite directions, and I see no reason not to back Arizona.
Scott Rickenbach
West Virginia vs. Virginia Tech
Play: Over 52
The over is 26-16 Mountaineers games where they are an underdog in a range of 3.5 to 10 points. The over is also 15-9 in West Virginia's games played on a neutral field. The past two seasons, the Mountaineers have played 5 games on grass and the over has cashed in at an 80% clip. The Hokies are on an 8-2 run to the over in non-conference games. Also Virginia Tech has gone 7-1 to the over in September games. In neutral field action, the over has cashed at a 75% clip in Hokies games the past two seasons. The Mountaineers have the stronger offense so they'll enjoy some success versus the Hokies. However, Virginia Tech's offense is also likely to enjoy success against a West Virginia defense that returns only 3 starters. The result should be plenty of points in this one!
Cappers Club
Red Sox vs. Yankees
Play: Under 7
The Yankees and the Red Sox face off on Sunday night baseball, and with two aces on the mound, the under has all the value in this one.
On the mound for the Red Sox is Chris Sale who has had a couple of hiccups as of late, but got back on the right track in his last start.
He went seven innings against the Blue Jays and only gave up three hits and zero runs.
On the mound for the Yankees is Luis Severino who has also been really good. In seven of his last nine starts he gave up one run or less.
I would expect a similar performance out of him in this one.
Some trends to note. Under is 8-0 in Red Sox last 8 Sunday games. Under is 5-0 in Yankees last 5 vs. American League East.
Jesse Schule
Cardinals vs. Giants
Play: Giants +109
The Giants beat the Cardinals by a score of 2-1 in extra innings on Saturday, and they have a chance to earn a split in the series finale in San Francisco Sunday.
Madison Bumgarner will toe the slab for San Fran, and he's held the opposition to two runs or less in six of his last seven starts. He's always been great in day games, and he's 1-0 with a 2.25 in three starts in the afternoon this season. That trend holds true over the last three seasons, with a record of 23-6 with a 2.63 ERA in 35 daytime starts.
The Cardinals hand the ball to rookie Luke Weaver, who has been lights out so far. He's won four straight starts, and he's reached double-digit Ks in his last two starts. The Cardinals are 7-26 in their last 33 games versus a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.
Will Rogers
St. Louis vs. San Francisco
Pick: St. Louis -113
The setup: The Cardinals came to San Francisco on Thursday to begin a four-game series with the sad-sack Giants. The Cards won the first two but last night the team's bats went 'silent' in a 2-1 loss (10 inn.). The 68-67 Cards are seven back of the Cubs in the NL Central but are also four games back for the final NL wild card spot. That may be St. Louis' best shot at the postseason, so taking three of four against a San Francisco team that is just 54-84, seems like a "must."
The pitching matchup: Luke Weaver (3-1 & 2.48 ERA) takes the mound for the Cards and Madison Bumgarner (3-6 & 2.85 ERA), who was scratched from the series opener Thursday due to an illness, is expected to start for the Giants. Weaver made nine appearances last season, including eight starts but pitched only 36 1/3 innings. This makes his eighth appearance of 2017 (fifth start), after capping August with back-to-backs wins he which he had 10 strikeouts in each, allowing just two ERs over 12 2/3 innings (1.42 ERA). He has 33 strikeouts against six walks in 24 innings as a starter, limiting opponents to a .228 average. This marks his first start against the Giants. Bumgarner allowed two runs and five hits in seven innings last time out, but took the loss against Arizona. It marked the 10th time in 13 outings that he posted a quality start but despite a 2.85 ERA, 1.04 WHIP and 2.27 BAA, the Gaints are 3-10 in Bumgarner's starts (minus-$1248 is the second-worst moneyline mark, ahead of only teammate Matt Moore). Bumgarner is just 4-5 with a 4.04 ERA in 10 career starts vs. St. Louis.
The pick: Bumgarner's season is emblematic of his team's, as the Giants own MLB's worst moneyline mark (minus-$3549), which is almost $1000 worse than the next-worst teams. Considering the 24-year-old Weaver went 3-0 with a 1.71 ERA in August and is is coming off consecutive 10-strikeout performances in 6-2 and 10-2 wins, why not take the Cards here vs. the free-falling Giants?
Bruce Marshall
Dodgers at Padres
Pick: Padres
Dodger pitchers not named Clayton Kershaw are having a tough week as the Blue continues its longest slump of the year, now on a 1-7 skid after losing a pair to the Padres on Saturday. Sunday starter Alex Wood, just off of the 10-day DL, does not look immune, either, especially as the Dodger offense has been providing inconsistent support the past two weeks. San Diego has lost in Jhoulys Chacin's last five starts but Chacin has not pitched badly especially at home where he is 7-3 with a 1.85 ERA at Petco Park. A plus price on the RL with San Diego looks too good to bypass.
SPORTS WAGERS
VIRGINIA TECH -4 over West Virginia
The points look extremely enticing here in what many experts care calling a complete toss-up between two evenly matched teams that will be played on a neutral site at FedEx Field in Washington. We have recently discussed (in our last podcast), the importance of monitoring line movements and this one is a prime example of that. The market is revealing that most of the money is coming in on the dog but most books have not budged on the number. We see many different lines depending on where you shop but our most notable sportsbook, Pinnacle, has stayed firm by dealing Va Tech at -5 this entire morning. Some also had it at -5 but there were some -4½’s out there too. We’re glad you’re listening because some of our readers pointed out Pinny’s influence here. The market has now moved this number to -4.
It would be real easy to sell the Mountaineers here with points. You will likely read about Va Tech’s futility on a neutral site, which influences the market. In fact, the Hokies are on a 22-year regular season, neutral-site winless streak. Three of them have come at FedEx Field with the trio of opponents being USC in 2004, Boise State in 2010 and Cincinnati in 2012. Interesting enough, we also have an in-depth discussion on “trends” in football in our last podcast, pointing out that it is useless information that means nothing. Furthermore, Va Tech will send out Josh Jackson, a rookie quarterback that will be taking his first game snaps in a real game. The market does not like to spot points with a rookie QB. Meanwhile, QB Will Grier is back for the Mountaineers and he’s a proven commodity that some experts are calling the “real deal”. The question posed for bettors is whether to spot points with a rookie QB with a team that hasn’t won on a neutral site in 22 years or take back points with Will Grier and the 22nd ranked Mountaineers? Again, selling WVU would be easy here but we’re not in the X’s and O’s or trends business. We are in the “finding the right play” business and when everything points one way, it’s usually the time to go the other way.
What we know for sure about this game is that Va Tech’s defense was one of the best in college football last year that played Clemson, North Carolina, Tennessee, Miami, Notre Dame, Georgia Tech and Arkansas among others. Virginia Tech has a defense it can fall back on even if redshirt-freshman quarterback Josh Jackson comes out with jitters, as he probably will. Tech’s defense looks as solid as any in the program’s recent history, and that’s saying a lot, given the level of the units that defensive coordinator Bud Foster has orchestrated. Will Grier may indeed be the real deal but he hasn’t played in 18 months and he’ll now be facing a ferocious defense while the Mountaineers “D” may not be all that good. The last question we’re faced with is why is this line not -3, like close games between evenly matched teams on neutral sites usually are? Before you take the points, you would be advised to answer that question. The line and everything else that doesn’t meet the eye strongly suggests to us that Va Tech is the prudent choice here and so that’s how we’ll proceed.
SPORTS WAGERS
Winnipeg +3 over SASKATCHEWAN
After back-to-back blowout wins over Edmonton and B.C., the 4-4 Roughriders are a hot item coming into this Labour Day Classic. As one of the league's more popular team, it's always interesting when the Roughriders are in the mix. TSN eats it up and so do the local papers. From the outside, all seems to be right in Riderville, but let us not forget this is still just a .500 football team that a few weeks ago was searching for answers after getting pounded by the Lions in Vancouver. In Saskatchewan, just about everything that involves the Roughriders is blown out of proportion including the wins and the losses. It wasn't long ago that the Riders faithful were looking to run the football operations department right out town after a horrible season and cutting ties with some popular players. Now football czar Chris Jones is a genius and this is the best offense in the CFL. Sure, the Riders have scored 95 points in their last two games but that small sample size isn't nearly as impressive as it looks. A huge win in Edmonton looks great on paper but the Eskimos were never as good as their 7-0 start with a defense loaded with practice squad fodder. Can the most prolific offense in the league really be led by Kevin Glenn? We think not.
Labour Day weekend has not been kind to the Bombers in recent years, but the final Labour Day Classic at historic Taylor Field in 2016 was a different story. Winnipeg was hell bent on making sure this last tilt on the hallowed grounds where it all started wouldn't be a warm and fuzzy memory to be passed down for generations. It wasn't pretty, a 17-10 win as an 8½-point road favorite but it's a game that still sticks in the craw of Rider Nation. Fast forward to Week 1 and it was the Blue Bombers who got the call to open the brand new $278 Mosaic Stadium and another opportunity to send the rowdy Regina crowd home unhappy. After a 43-40 victory in an overtime thriller, the Blue and Gold did just that. That win set the tone for the Bombers season and despite a couple of bumps in the road, this team is firing on all cylinders. Winnipeg should relish in another chance to make history on the backs of the Roughriders in their brand new barn. As quarterback Matt Nichols so equality put it this week, “The Blue Bombers are ready for a fist fight”.
This game is one of the biggest on the calendar in any season but with the Riders recent resurgence and the Bombers streaking, there's a little more sizzle. If you believe the press clippings this game is destined to be a classic. The line suggests this game has all the makings of a close contest with the Riders as a small -3 point favorite. However, once the hype train has been fueled and the whistle blows, it's impossible to predict what will happen on the field but all the pressure is on the home team, as they try to make some hay in the ultra-competitive West. Saskatchewan only has five games left, including today against West Division teams and two of those are with Calgary. If the Riders are for real we will find out shortly but for now their stock is higher than it’s been in some time and because of those two aforementioned lopsided scores recently, you are going to pay to back the Riders here, which is something we refuse to do. The 7-2 Blue Bombers are being sold short here.
SPORTS WAGERS
Toronto +126 over BALTIMORE
Just when 2015 gave Brett Anderson a glimmer of hope, he went under the knife again, reminding us the one constant here is his lack-of-health grade. However, Anderson’s long history of an xERA in the mid-3s tells us he can have value in doses. What we also like about Anderson is this matchup because the Orioles have trouble with junk pitchers that induce swings out of the strike zone. The O’s lineup has never seen a pitch they didn’t like so facing this free swinging group may be perfect for Anderson to thrive in. That’s just the skinny on Brett Anderson because this bet has more to do with fading Chris Tillman that backing Anderson.
In 80 frames this season, Tillman has walked 44 and struck out 56. That's an absurd ratio. He has a 1.95 WHIP, a 7.36 ERA and MLB’s worst xERA of 7.63 among qualified starters. Chris Tillman has come close to pitching with two men on base every single inning he’s pitched this year. Tillman should be a 2-1 pooch every time he takes the hill because it doesn’t get much worse than him. He was recently moved to the ‘pen on August 5 after going 1-7 with an 8.10 ERA and 2.04 WHIP over 15 straight starts but to our delight, he’s back in the rotation. Baltimore is in the Wildcard race and it is even within striking distance in the AL East so it’s surprising that Tillman is still in the rotation. However, The O’s are paying this stiff 10.5M this season so they’ll send him back out there rather than pay him $400,000 every two weeks to count heads. If his contract wasn’t so high, he wouldn’t be near the mound in a pennant race, as any minor leaguer could match his numbers on their worst day. Tillman as the chalk must be faded, period.
Arizona -1½ +190 over COLORADO
We’re not going to go into a lot of details here regarding the pitchers because it matters not when playing at Coors Field. We are going to commit to playing the underdog all season long at Coors Field on the ALTERNATIVE run line. What that means is that we are playing the remainder of Colorado’s home games this season and we’ll be playing the underdog in each game, whether it’s the Rocks or the opposition and we’ll be playing it regardless of who’s pitching. We’re suggesting that this wager has nothing but big profits in store. With totals being in the 10 to 12½ range daily at this venue, far more games are decided by two runs or more than one run and the underdog wins just as much as the favorite. The pitching matchups rarely matter because even the best get rocked at this park. We’ll keep a running record on this angle all season long.
Year to date:
23-37 + 26.75 units
Brandon Lee
Blue Jays vs. Orioles
Play:Blue Jays +127
The public is still on Baltimore from their 7-game winning streak, but the offense has fallen flat on it's face the past two games, scoring just 3 runs combined. I'll take my chances here with Toronto, who sends out Brett Anderson. In his first start since May, Anderson was sharp against a tough Red Sox lineup, allowing just 1 run on 6 hits with no walks in 5 2/3 innings. I like his chances of pitching well here, as he's only given up 2 homers in 27 2/3 innings on the season. As for the Orioles, they send out the struggling Chris Tillman, who has an awful 10.66 ERA in his last 3 starts, having given up at least 4 runs in each of his last 4 outings.
Doug Upstone
Royals vs. Twins
Play: Under 9½
To say Kansas City is not hitting is an understatement. After yesterday's 17-0 drubbing to Minnesota, that marked fifth time in just eight games the Royals put up a goose egg on the scoreboard. Backed with this intel, when the total is 9 to 9.5 and a team like the Royals was shutout and faces opponent after a combined score of 17 runs or more, they are 31-8 UNDER.