Free Picks: Free Service Plays for Sunday, September 4th, 2016

DAVE COKIN

NOTRE DAME VS. TEXAS
PLAY: NOTRE DAME -3.5

There’s no denying those off the field issues are a potential distraction for Notre Dame. It’s also an obviously enormous game for Texas on a variety of levels.

First, there’s the revenge motive. Texas didn’t just lose to Notre Dame last season, they were totally humiliated. I don’t doubt for a second that the Longhorns will be immensely focused for this battle.

There’s also the Charlie Strong factor. His coaching seat is way beyond hot. There doesn’t even seem to be any debate that anything less than a very successful season and a significant bowl game will mean the end of Strong’s tenure in Austin.

So I’m well aware of what’s at stake here, and I’ve also heard and read lots of the pre-season predictions that are calling for this to be a breakthrough campaign for the Longhorns.

I agree that Texas should be improved. But this was a 5-7 football team last year and they’re 10-14 the last two seasons. There’s a big difference between being better and rising to an elite level, and I’m just going to have to get convinced before I buy all the hype.

As for the Irish, the inexperience could be an early season factor, and as previously mentioned, I’m not dismissing the external issues. But this is still a loaded roster with some great athletes. This was also a team that just missed getting to the playoffs last year. They lost at the gun on a Stanford field goal, and if that kick misses the Irish are one of the Final Four. Their two regular season losses were by a total of four points and came against Clemson and Stanford, two of the best teams in the country. I’m not sure Notre Dame is down much at all, and even if there’s a slight decline, they still rate well ahead of Texas on my numbers.

Some sharp dollars showed up early on Texas and maybe they’re going to turn out to be as good as advertised. But I am going to trust the data and back Notre Dame. It’s not a big enough difference on my numbers to justify wagering a full unit, but I also don’t want to sit this game out. I decided to split the difference and play on Notre Dame minus the points.

Rob Vinciletti

White Sox vs. Twins
Play: Twins -109

The Twins are 3-0 this year at home off a home 5+ run win scoring 10 or more runs. The Whitesox are a dismal 0-7 on the road off a 5+ run road loss. They have A. Ranaudo pitching and he has an elEvated 6.32 road Era. For out system we are playing on home teams with a total if 10 or higher that are off a home win by 5+ runs and scored 10+ runs vs an opponent off a 5+ run road dog loss and had 4 or less hits in the loss. Thus system has cased 91% long term. Play the Twins today.

Mike Lundin

Blue Jays vs. Rays
Play: Rays +107

The Tampa Bay Rays have outscored the Toronto Blue Jays by an 80-60 margin in winning nine of 15 meetings this season. They're going for a sweep of this three-game set at Tropicana Field Sunday afternoon, and I like the price we get on Tampa Bay with its ace on the mound.

Chris Archer (8-17, 4.10) takes the ball for the Rays. He's 3-9 home at the Trop this season despite a more than respectable 2.61 ERA. He's held Toronto to seven runs (six earned) on 10 hits and 11 walks with 23 strikeouts through 17 innings of work this season.

Toronto turns to J.A. Happ (17-4, 3.23 ERA) who's 3-3 with a 4.87 ERA in his career against the Rays, and the current Tampa Bay roster has a combined .315 batting average against the left-hander. Happ has struggled in each of his three most recent turns, surrendering a total of 11 runs on 19 hits through 18 2/3 frames.

Happ is no doubt a solid pitcher, but I don't think he'll outduel Archer here. The Rays seem to up their game when facing their division rival and the team is 5-2 in its last seven vs. American League East opponents.

Heath Mac

Notre Dame vs. Texas
Play: Under 59

Texas will be looking to prove that last year was an anomaly and that they are a better team than their 5-7 record indicated. Apparently the attitude is on point in camp and we expect to see improvement – but not on the offensive end. More effort and intensity will lead to stops on defense, but they are still working with the same tools on offense and look weak at QB. The Longhorns will again look to gain yards on the ground behind an experienced O Line, which will run plenty of clock.

Notre Dame is solid defensively and shouldn’t have too many difficulties with a one dimensional Longhorns attack. The Longhorns likely can’t win this game in a shoot out situation, so they will look to grind out the game and hope to be within striking distance in the 4th. This total looks too high and we’ll take the UNDER.

Under is 4-1 in Fighting Irish last 5 vs. Big 12. Under is 5-2 in Fighting Irish last 7 games in September. Under is 23-10 in Longhorns last 33 games overall.

Big Al

Chicago vs. Minnesota
Pick: Over

There are ugly pitching match-ups and then there's the one this afternoon at Target Field. RHP Anthony Ranaudo brings his 8.76 ERA into Minneapolis to face the Twins with LH Andrew Albers and his 6.97 ERA. Of course, Albers has a much smaller sample size having only pitched in three games covering just 10 1/3 innings. Only one of those games was a start, and it sure wasn't pretty as Albers lasted just two innings while allowing four runs on six hits before being pulled. Of course, with Minnesota not playing for anything this season, they'll give plenty of looks to young starters - especially lefthanders. Ranaudo limited the damage in his last outing by holding a potent Tigers lineup to three runs in five-plus innings, but he had allowed 11 earned runs in 9 1/3 innings in his previous two starts combined, so there's little reason to thing his problems are behind him. With nine of their last 11 games going over the total (most of them comfortably), the over is now an incredible 83-45-7 in the Twins' games this season. This is easily the highest percentage of overs in the Majors, at almost 65%.

Jim Feist

Boston at Oakland
Pick: Over

Boston has the number one offense in baseball, tops in runs, on base percentage and slugging. The pitching, though, is a problem, especially this weak bullpen. Boston is on a 5-1-1 run over the total. The Over is 21-8-2 in the Athletics last 31 home games vs. a left-handed starter, including 21-8-2 over at home against a left-handed starter. And when these teams clash the Over is 5-0 in the last 5 meetings.

David Banks

Notre Dame @ Texas
Pick: Under 59

The Longhorns would love to atone for last season’s debacle against Notre Dame. The Irish, on their way to a 10-3 finish, blew out Texas 38-3 in last year’s opener. Fast forward to 2016 and Texas is viewed by many to be one of the most improved teams in the country. New offensive coordinator Sterlin Gilbert was hired last offseason and has installed an offense that will look a lot like Baylor’s, with a few twists.

Gilbert is from the Art Briles coaching tree and has switched the Longhorns offense into overdrive. Freshman Shane Buechele, an early enrollee, will start at quarterback and run the offense. He will have plenty of weapons beginning with the big-back tandem of D’Onta Freeman (238 pounds) and Chris Warren III, who weighs in the neighborhood of 255. John Burt (6-3) is the leading returning receiver and former QB Jerrod Heard (6-3, 201) takes his athletic abilities to a receiver slot.

While a loss is not particularly devastating to Texas, it would be for the Irish which does not have the luxury of a conference championship game at the end of the season. Notre Dame will face Michigan State in two weeks and then has a fairly soft schedule except for Stanford and rival USC. Head coach Brian Kelly’s hopes of a College Football Playoff berth start with a win over Texas.

Kelly will begin the season with two quarterbacks, DeShone Kizer (2,884 yds., 21 TDs) and Malik Zaire, last year’s opening day starter. Zaire broke an ankle in the second week last year and Kizer finished the season. Both are deserving of the starting job and Kelly will have his hands full sorting through that quarterback situation. Regardless of who plays, Notre Dame has two capable running backs in Tarean Foster and Josh Adams (835 yards last year) and a huge offensive line. The Irish return five starters on defense and have the makings of a very strong unit.

Chase Diamond

Arizona at Colorado
Play: Colorado

This afternoon we have the 57-78 Arizona at the 65-70 Rockies. The Rockies have been very solid at home going 35-33 at home this season. Colorado will play with revenge after losing yesterday 9-4 and send dependable starter Jon Gray to the mound who is 9-6 with a 4.41 ERA. Last time we went against these Rockies in Colorado we jumped out 7-0 to have them come back and beat us 14-7 a tough loss. Jon Gray is 6-1 at home this season and a win here would put him at 10 a great mark for a second year starter. Rockies offense is on fire 80 runs last 6 games we will roll with the Rockies this afternoon.

Martin Griffiths

Denmark vs. Armenia
Play: Armenia +1½

When looking at this fixture it is easy to go for a Denmark win, however, the handicap has been set at -1.5 goals and I am far from convinced that Denmark will win this game by two goals, in fact, I do not think they will.

Armenia are not the minnows people think they are, in the last international qualification campaign they were involved in, the Euro's, they lost in Denmark by just a single goal, in the last world cup qualifying campaign they were involved in they also had Denmark in their group and beat them 4-0 in Denmark, yup, 4-0.

Now, there have been other results that have not been good for Armenia, they are an inconsistent bunch, but when they are in the right frame of mind they do make a good account of themselves.

Denmark are also an inconsistent bunch, they are a better side than Armenia, however, they have a tendency to let themselves down, a look at their last qualifying campaign for a tournament shows that, but if they play to their true ability they will probably win, but to win by a couple of goals I feel is asking a lot.

Art Aronson

Houston at Texas
Play: Texas -167

Setting the scene: For those of you who don’t mind laying chalk, we think that Yu Darvish and the Rangers offer good value in this matchup.

Colin McHugh: He’s 9-10 with a 4.80 ERA. McHugh has been hit-or-miss all year and while he does come in off a decent effort vs. Oakland in his last start, note that he’s just 4-6 with a 5.78 ERA on the road this season.

Darvish: He’s 5-3 with a 3.01 ERA. Most recently he gave up three runs off six hits and two walks with nine K’s over six frames in a victory over Seattle. Darvish has posted eight-straight quality outings and has posted a 62:11 K:BB ratio in that span. Note that he owns a 3.00 ERA at home.

The bottom line: Darvish has allowed just one run to Houston over 12 innings this year and looks to close the season strong: "I'll be satisfied when I put all zeros on the scoreboard," said the Japanese hurler. "Until then, I've still got work to do." Consider a second look at Texas this afternoon.

SPORTS WAGERS

SASKATCHEWAN +165 over Winnipeg

It's been so bad in Winnipeg for so long that we don't blame the locals for getting excited about the Bombers turnaround from a 1-4 start. The Bombers haven't won a Grey Cup since 1990, which is by far the longest drought in the league. Now, after stringing together four straight wins, the Blue Bombers are starting to get noticed. Their return to the royal blues of their heyday doesn't hurt, but their rising stock in the marketplace is a little premature. The Bombers are starting to receive accolades from around the league with both running backs Andrew Harris and kicker Justin Medlock receiving “Stars of the Week” honors after a big road win in Montreal. All of this glad handing and back slapping has the Bombers favored on the road in Regina for this Labour Day Classic. It's an absurd notion for this crew to be giving points to anyone on the road at this point and it's especially crazy considering this matchup never plays out the way it's supposed to on paper. Winnipeg is coming into this game with way too much hype for a team just one game above .500. It's also a game the Bombers rarely win, like ever. The Bombers are 34-17 lifetime on Labour Day but they are 0-11 over the last decade plus in the “LDC”. All this hype is setting these Bombers up to be a big fat flop on Sunday afternoon.

A disappointing season a year ago for Saskatchewan has bled into 2016 and new football czar Chris Jones has been unable to recreate any of the magic he had in Edmonton last year. The Roughriders are 1-8 this season but lucky for Jones and crew that matters not on Labour Day weekend. Saskatchewan will be moving into their new stadium next season and this will be the last “Labour Day Classic” at what was Taylor Field. Taylor Field is one of, if not the most iconic landmarks in that city and Sunday is sure to be an emotional day for fans and players. It was built in the middle of a sleepy neighbourhood and a lifetime of memories will be top of mind to the 10’s of thousands in attendance. It can't be overstated enough that the Roughriders are more than a football team to that region and its population. It's a tradition that is woven throughout the province and has been passed down for generations. For many, the Riders ARE Saskatchewan. On a day where anything often can and does happen, the Roughriders certainly have something to play for. We could pour over stats and trends but this is a classic game where you can throw all that stuff out the window because on this day it matters not. Despite their one win, Saskatchewan is just four games behind Edmonton and Winnipeg for third in the West. It's been said the CFL season doesn't really start until Labour Day. While the Riders will be way back from the pack to start this race, the emotion and support they will get on this day will rival anything you have ever seen in college football or the NFL. Rider football is a way of life in Saskatchewan and this is their “Super Bowl”. Riders outright gets the call.

Larry Ness

Detroit vs. Kansas City
Pick: Kansas City

The Royals had won 18 of 22 games from August 10th through the 29th before dropping three straight one-run contests (two in extra-innings), entering Saturday’s game with the Tigers. KC won 5-2 last night, which leaves the two-time defending AL champs four games back of the final wild card spot at 70-65. The 72-62 Tigers are three games better than the Royals and just one game back of the Orioles, who currently own the AL’s second wild card spot. The teams meet Sunday in the rubber match of this three-game series with Daniel Norris (2-2, 3.86 ERA) taking the mound for Detroit and Edinson Volquez (10-10, 5.01 ERA) for Kansas City.

Norris was acquired as part of the deal which sent David Price to Toronto back on July 30, 2015. He made eight starts for Detroit after that trade, going 2-1 with a 3.68, as the Tigers were 6-2. Detroit was counting on Norris in 2016 but he began the season on the disabled list due to a lower back issue suffered during spring training. He was recalled to the Tigers on May 11, 2016 but made only a one-inning appearance against the Baltimore Orioles on May 12 before being returned to AAA. Norris was recalled again on June 21 and made his first start of the 2016 season on June 23. However, after pitching two innings plus one batter in a July 4 start against the Cleveland Indians, Norris was removed from the game. He was later diagnosed with an oblique strain, the same injury he suffered in late 2015, and was placed on the disabled list for the third time in his career. Norris makes just his ninth start of 2016 in this one.

Volquez has endured a roller-coaster season, but he is 5-2 with a 4.21 ERA in 12 starts against AL Central opponents (Royals are 9-3!). He’s 3-4 with a 5.47 ERA in nine career starts against Detroit (Royals are 4-5) but that includes 2-0 with a 3.38 ERA in two outings this season. I’m backing KC on Sunday.

Scott Spreitzer

Detroit at Kansas City
Play: Detroit +109

Detroit lost to the Royals last night but the Tigers still have won nine of their last 12 games and have the edge in this matchup with Daniel Norris against Edinson Volquez. Kansas City lost Volquez's last start against the Yankees when he allowed four runs and nine hits in just 3 1/3 innings. Volquez is 10-10 with a 5.01 ERA overall and he had a 6.37 ERA in August. Daniel Norris has given Detroit five or six solid innings his last five appearances and the Tigers have won his last two starts as he finished with nine strikeouts in 11 1/3 innings. In one outing against the Royals this season, Norris allowed two runs in 5 1/3 innings. The Tigers have won six of their last seven road games and Kansas City has lost six of its last eight home games versus left-handed starters.

Buster Sports

St. Louis at Cincinnati
Play: St. Louis -155

The St. Louis Cardinals have lost the first two games of the series against the Reds and they really need a victory to keep their playoff hopes alive. We believe they will get it today. The starting pitchers for todays game are for the Cardinals RH Carlos Martinez (12-7, 3.07 ERA) and he goes up against the Reds RH Tim Adleman (2-2, 3.82 ERA). Martinez has pitched very well for the Cardinals of late as he has a 1.29 ERA with a WHIP of 0.810 in his last 3 starts. On the road Martinez has been excellent. He has a 2.30 ERA with a WHIP of 1.136 in 12 starts. He will get the best of the Reds tonight. As for Adleman he has done his job for the Reds but he has struggled of late. in his last 2 starts he has given up 8 runs in 11 innings and we believe the Cardinals will have their way with him tonight. Backing our selection is the fact that the Cardinals are 10-1 in their last 11 after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game and the fact that the Reds are 1-4 in their last 5 games vs. a right-handed starter.