Bob Balfe
Royals -115
The Royals have been pretty good at home this year and have hit the ball well against left handed starters. This is the time of year that teams need to win their home games if they want to sneak into the playoffs. Detroit’s bullpen has been very weak on the road this year so I don’t trust this team as we head down the stretch.
Vegas Butcher
Houston Astros +150
Darvish is a beast no doubt, but I doubt he goes past the 6th inning. That means this poor Rangers BP will be in there for at least a third of the game. McHugh is no slouch (top-60 pitcher) and backed by my #1 ranked BP, the odds value are in his favor here. I have this one at -120 TEX.
Miami Marlins +190 (1st 5 Innings)
Over the last 30-days Koehler ranks 37th with a 3.7 e-ERA. In the same time span Salazar is 149th with a 5.9 e-ERA. This one is much closer than the odds indicate and hopefully Koehler does what Fernandez couldn’t in the first 5 innings yesterday. My model has this one at -160 CLE, so definitely value on the road team.
Brandon Lee
Orioles -107
Baltimore is worth a look here as a small home favorite against the Mariners. The Orioles are a dominant 45-24 at home on the season and this is simply too good a price not to back them. New York had been playing well, but have dropped 4 of their last 6 and the edge on the mound goes to Baltimore in this one. The Orioles will send out Wade Miley, who is coming off back-to-back strong outings against the Nationals and Blue Jays. The Yankees will counter with Michael Pineda, who comes in having allowed 10 runs on 14 hits in his last 2 starts. Orioles are 12-1 in their last 13 after allowing 2 runs or less in 2 straight games.
Jack Jones
New York Mets -128
The New York Mets are right in the thick of the NL wild card race. They are just one game behind St. Louis for the 2nd wild card spot. The Washington Nationals pretty much have the NL East wrapped up and can coast to the finish line.
The Mets have gone 10-4 in their last 14 games overall and picked up a 3-1 victory yesterday. I look for them to take Game 3 and the series today behind Seth Lugo, who is 2-1 with a 2.55 ERA and 1.075 WHIP in three starts this season.
Washington will counter with Reynaldo Lopez, who is 2-2 with a 5.33 ERA and 1.697 WHIP in five starts this year. He has given up 30 hits and 13 walks in 25 1/3 innings. His control issues will be a problem in this game against this patient Mets lineup.
Plays on home teams with a money line of -100 to -150 (NY METS) - poor NL offensive team (scoring 4.1 runs/game or less) against a team with a very good bullpen (ERA of 3.33 or less), after a win by two runs or less are 77-26 (74.8%, +45 units) over the last five seasons. New York is 6-1 in its last seven Sunday games.
Jimmy Boyd
Seattle Mariners -124
Seattle is showing great value here as a small home favorite against the Angels on Sunday. The Mariners will send out Hisashi Iwakuma, who is 8-3 with a 3.56 ERA and 1.123 WHIP in 12 home starts this season. Iwakuma is also 8-4 with a 2.92 ERA and 1.003 WHIP in 16 career starts against the Angels. LA will counter with Matt Shoemaker, who is 4-9 with a 4.72 ERA and 1.329 WHIP in 14 road starts.
Angels are 4-13 in Shoemakers last 17 starts with a money line of +125 to -15 and 4-16 in their last 20 road games after winning 4 or 5 of their last 6. Mariners are 8-2 in their last 10 home games against a right-handed starter, 11-4 in their last 15 home games against a team with a losing road record and 8-1 in Iwakuma's last 9 home starts.
Dave Price
Boston Red Sox -123
The Boston Red Sox are tied atop the AL East with the Toronto Blue Jays at 76-59 on the season. The Red Sox have won 3 straight while scoring a ridiculous 35 runs in the process. They'll be up against an Oakland A's team that is 0-5 in their last 5 games while scoring a combined 8 runs in the process. I like the price we are getting with Boston as small road favorites here. Eduardo Rodriquez has pitched very well of late, going 1-2 with a 2.52 ERA in his first 7 starts since being recalled from Triple-A Pawtucket. The Red Sox are 5-0 against the A's this season, outscoring them 67-19 along the way.
Scott Rickenbach
Los Angeles Angels +125
The Angels season may be "over" but they're certainly not playing like that. Los Angeles has won 9 of its past 12 games and the Angels have averaged 5.8 runs per game in their last 10 games. The Mariners are slumping bad with 9 losses in their past 11 games. The M's have been held to 3 runs or less in 8 of those 11 games. However, this pick is not just about two teams heading in opposite directions as it also about two starting pitchers heading in opposite directions. Matt Shoemaker gets the start for LA and the Angels have won each of his last 3 starts as he has allowed just 4 earned runs on 15 hits in 20 innings of work. As for the Mariners Hisashi Iwakuma, Seattle has lost each of his last three starts and his strikeout numbers are down too. He seems to be tiring here at the end of the season and the Seattle right-hander gave up 5 earned runs in just 3 innings in his most recent start. The Mariners are an ugly 6-15 in their Sunday games this season!
SPORTS WAGERS
L.A. Angels +120 over SEATTLE
Matt Shoemaker watched his skills tail off in July after his electric May and June. However, Shoemaker is back to dominating again and that makes him playable again, especially when taking back a price. Shoemaker He has been one of the game's best starters recently. In his last game he went seven full without walking anyone and striking out seven. His overall groundball is creeping up and it is up from 40% to 50% over his last 10 starts. It was 65% in his last start. Shoemaker has walked a puny 30 batters in 159 innings this season. His xERA of 3.45 is also a top-15 mark in the AL.
Hisashi Iwakuma is another starter with good surface stats that has been on our fade radar all year long. However, much like Marco Estrada, Iwakuma’s success is all luck driven so he’ll continue to be a prime fade target. Iwakuma’s average velocity has dipped to 87 MPH. His swing and miss rate has fallen off to 7%. Iwakuma has 17 K’s over his last 28 innings with an xERA of 5.08. His 38%/22%/40% groundball/line-drive/fly-ball profile is one that cannot play well at any park over time. Iwakuma’s struggles can be summed up in his 17%/25% dominant start/disaster start score over the last two seasons. Iwakuma is rarely dominant with a few disasters but in general what he brings is a whole lot of middle-of-the-road performances and now he’ll face one of the hottest offenses in the game. The Halos are batting .310 over the past 15 games, which is second in MLB over that span behind Boston’s .323. They are first in slugging percentage over that span at .551 with the Rangers, Rockies and Red Sox behind them.
The Mariners do not have an edge on the hill here, nor do they have an edge at the plate. The only edge the M’s have is home-field but that should not be enough to overcome the disadvantages here.
TAMPA BAY +107 over Toronto
In eight games recently against the Twinkies, Angels and Rays, who are a combined 70 games under .500, Toronto is 4-4. However, they rallied from four down in two of three games against Minnesota and also rallied from three down in another victory. The Jays are actually fortunate that they are not 1-7 in those eight games. Now they’re favored on the road again because J.A. Happ is 17-4 with a 3.23 ERA so we’ll have a look at that. In 2009, Happ went 12-4 with a 2.93 ERA over 166 innings. That was by far his best year but it was also his rookie season so the league had not seen him much. In 2010, Happ made just 16 starts and pitched to a xERA of 4.62. His next full season was the following year in 2011 in which he went 6-15 in 28 starts with an ERA/xERA split of 5.35/4.71. From 2011 until 2015, Happ continued on his mediocre to below average career until this year. In 1012 career innings prior to this season, J.A. Happ went 62-61 with a 4.11/4.58 ERA/xERA split. Happ has been released, traded or signed by 10 teams over his eight years of service including the Blue Jays not once, but twice before. This is his third stint with Toronto.
Happ isn't much different than he's been the last few years. His 17 wins are greatly benefited by the 6.35 runs the Jays are averaging when he starts (4th highest in MLB). Hit and strand rates are on the favorable side and are the reason for the large gap between ERA & xERA. His first-pitch strike rate and Ball% erosion has resulted in some loss of control and may not have bottomed out yet so command gains are unlikely. Though Happ's ERA has ranged between 4.22 and 3.27 the last three years, his xERA has remained more tightly clustered around 4.50. Happ probably won't be able to maintain this production levels over the final month and should be "sold-high" when he does pitch. That Happ is favored in Tampa Bay over Chris Archer is incorrect.
Archer is 8-17 in 25 starts with a 4.10 ERA, which is more evidence of how ERA’s and W/L records can be so misleading. There are several reasons to lean toward the earlier version of Archer and not to pay attention to his surface stats. His first-pitch strike rate says not to worry about the 60 walks he’s issued in 169 frames. His elite swing and miss rate of 17% supports his K total of 202 in 169 innings. His groundball rate is also elite. Archer is equally dominant versus lefties as he is against righties. Archer’s strong dominant start/disaster starts trend and his reliability grades mitigate his risk. If luck factors are normal in this game, Rays should sweep because they have a giant edge on the hill and when the Jays aren’t hitting the ball over the fence, they are extremely beatable.
SPORTS WAGERS
TEXAS +4 over Notre Dame
Although the Longhorns have not lived up to expectations in the Charlie Strong era, they are still one of the best teams to get behind at the betting window. Texas is now 46-21-1 ATS during the season the past five years and they come into this year with their best team since Strong arrived. Let’s toss that aside for a second and focus in on what really matters here.
Notre Dame is ranked (#10) while the Longhorns are not ranked. The volume of bets generated by this one game on Sunday night in prime time during “Kickoff Week” will rival any single game all year. We promise you that the odds makers are aware of that and we also promise you that they know where most of the money is going. The line here is set just low enough on the Irish to attract a fortune in bets. In terms of X’s and O’s, there are a ton of reasons to back Notre Dame as well. They possess one of the best offensive lines in the country and featurea stable of strong, fast, experienced running backs to compliment the line. Expect the Irish to run early and often and perhaps by the fourth quarter they will have imposed their will on the “Horns defense. All that X’s and O’s stuff is for game analyzers. We are more interested in what the odds makers are thinking and where the value lies. In that regard, you can expect to pay a premium to wager on the boys from South Bend here because you are wagering on a ranked team versus an unranked opponent. Furthermore, the ‘Horns are a mere 11-14 straight up in the Charlie Strong era so they’re a team that has fallen under the radar.
Texas has a strong defense with experience. Notre Dame will roll with two QB’s and the old adage is that if you have two starting QB’s than you have none. We'll therefore put our faith in the oddsmakers and the numbers here.
The small and enticing short price on the Fighting Irish assures us that the oddsmakers have identified a good bit of value in the dog. Texas is going to be an extremely tough out all season and especially in this opener. Beware of the isolated game in prime time where the chalk is ranked and spotting a small number on the road against an unranked opponent. That situation has a low win expectation and therefore the prudent play is the dog at home plus the points.
Bruce Marshall
Brewers at Pirates
Pick: Brewers
Amazingly the streaky Pirates remain in NL wild card contention even after losing five in a row, which came on the heels of sweeping the Brewers four straight last weekend. Which has made the first two games of this series at PNC Park so sweet for the Brew Crew as they look to return the sweep favor today. Craig Counsell has been getting serviceable work lately from starter Chase Anderson, who has delivered five acceptable innings of work in each of his last two starts.
Bruce Marshall
Cardinals -1.5 -105
Though they still hold a playoff position into Sunday, we are beginning to wonder if the Cardinals are ever going to make things easy for themselves in the NL wild card race, as they have yet to make a strong move to put distance between themselves and others. Their best chance in recent weeks has come in games pitched by Carlos Martinez, who has only allowed three runs over 24 IP (1.13 ERA) in his last three starts, all Redbird wins.
A's +118
This has not been a good weekend for the A's against the potent Red Sox bats. But Oakland's best chances to win in recent weeks have been in games pitched by Kendall Graveman, who will be a bit angered after alma mater Mississippi State lost in football on Saturday to big underdog South Alabama. Graveman has delivered quality starts in 8 of his last 10 outings. Bosox starter Eduardo Rodriguez was blasted in his last outing on Sunday vs. the Royals.
Chip Chirimbes
Notre Dame at Texas
Play: Texas +4
This contest may end up being the defining game for both clubs as they approach season with different aspirations. Notre Dame who 10 of their first 11 before falling against Stanford and Ohio State have aspirations to reach the NCAA football version of the Final 4. Texas on the other hand won just five games last season with their first loss at the hands Fighting Irish in Indiana 38-3 out-gaining the Longhorns 527-163. The Longhorns who have won 15 consecutive home openers closed their season with a win over Baylor and according to their coaches to improve on “offense, defense and special teams” in order to make a bowl appearance this season. Home crowd, revenge and motivation push the Horns.
Anthony Redd
Let's take a look at the Cincinnati Reds for today's free pick. They're hosting their division rivals, the St. Louis Cardinals, and I like the big price in this one.
Cincinnati is in last place but they have won two in a row including last night's 9-1 romp. I got no clue whats gotten into St. Louis but they have lost three in a row and 6 of 10.
This is a good spot to take advantage of a bad line, where one team just isn't playing as good as it should be and you have a rivalry involved.
Take the underdog.
2* REDS
Brad Wilton
The Giants and Cubs wrap things up at Wrigley, and if Friday and Saturday are any indication, then this series finale will not be seeing too much offense.
Friday it was the Cubs, 2-1. Saturday, the Giants returned the favor with a 3-2 win. Both games easily held Under the total, and I don't see any reason to look for an Over here on Sunday.
San Francisco is now 7-2-1 Under the total in their last 10 games, while Chicago has played 5 of their last 8 games Under the total.
Giants hurler Johnny Cueto's ERA over his last 3 starts is 3.06, while Cubs starter John Lackey's ERA is a sparkling 1.66 over his last 3 assignments.
Expect Cueto and Lackey to be stingy, and for the teams to make it 3-for-3 Under the total n Sunday.
2* SAN FRANCISCO-CUBS UNDER
Jeff Benton
Your Sunday freebie is the Jays and Rays Over the total.
I know Chris Archer has found a groove, and sports an ERA of just 1.86 over his last 3 starts, but the writing is on the wall, as these teams have now played Over the total in 7 of their last 8 season series games.
Included is a pair of May games that were started by Happ and Archer.
Speaking of J.A. Happ, his ERA is starting to balloon at 5.30 over his last 3 starts.
Toronto enters Sunday's game having played Overs in 6 of their last 10 after last night's Over, while Tampa Bay is on a prolonged 21-7 Over run their last 28 games played.
Low total considered the dominant series numbers on the Over, so play Toronto and Tampa Bay to land Over the total at the Trop on Sunday.
1* TORONTO-TAMPA BAY OVER