Free Picks for Thursday, August 10th, 2017 from some of the nations best and worst handicappers
Ben Burns
Saints vs Browns
Pick: Under 38.5
Osweiller will get the start for the Browns; he's expected to be backed up by Kessler, Kizer and Hogan. While Osweiller and co. would obviously like to perform well, the biggest goal for teams in Week 1 of the preseason is simply to avoid injury.
Its true that the Saints are known as an offensive team with a suspect defense. We're not going to see much from their offensive weapons here though. A date with the Browns provides a potential opportunity for the defense to gain some early confidence.
Over the past three seasons, the Browns have scored 11, 17 and 12 points in their Week 1 preseason game. With scores of 17-11, 20-17 and 13-12, all three of those games produced 37 or fewer combined points. Provided this O/U line stays above that important number, take a look at the Under.
Wunderdog
Minnesota @ Buffalo
Pick: Minnesota Pk
Minnesota plays hard for no-nonsense coach Mike Zimmer, even in August. Last August Minnesota went 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS. The previous preseason, they went 4-1 SU/ATS. Minnesota stuffed Pittsburgh in Week 1 2015, 14-3, while allowing 17 points or less in every preseason game. In 2016 they opened with two preseason games on the road and won both, 17-16 and 18-11, the latter at Seattle, a tough place to win even in August. The Vikings were hit hard by injuries on the offensive line last year, so they've bulked up with depth on the O-line and in the backfield for this season to have better balance on offense. As a result, there will be an emphasis on getting the ground game going. The defense is also loaded with talent and depth. Buffalo has a new coaching staff, a new playbook, and too many early injuries. Bills DE Shaq Lawson (groin injury) is ailing, along with RB Jonathan Williams (right leg), and there is uncertainty at left tackle as starting tackle Cordy Glenn may require foot surgery. QB Tyrod Taylor has been inconsistent in camp as he adjusts to playing in Rick Dennison's offense, and the backups are unimpressive with QBs T.J. Yates and fifth-round draft pick Nathan Peterman. Back the deeper, healthier visitors with the coach who gets them to play hard even in preseason.
Mike Anthony
Denver vs. Chicago
Play: Denver -1
In his last 2 seasons, Trevor Siemian had a pretty good TD ratio as a starter last year at QB. And Siemian has some expectations to show promising play for Denver - he really needs to put together a solid game here. Many NFL teams would love to have a Defense as good as the Broncos, that they could rely on, which is still going to be awesome. Chicago will win their share of games during the season - based on their running game, and Jordan Howard is certainly talented enough. But they will likely and inevitably fall apart under pressure. I don't trust Chicago's QB situation anywhere near enough to be able to keep up vs Denver with a lack of steady direction. Mitchell Trubisky will see his share of time vs a tough D. Bears are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 Thursday games.
3G-Sports
New Orleans vs. Cleveland
Play: New Orleans +3
The Saints are going into this season in an interesting situation. I see Michael Thomas becoming the predominate WR for New Orleans, he is going to have a ton of targets. Whatever gets the Saints team to load up the points game every week is what matters here - I fully expect the Saints to get Thomas involved, in his time on the field, enough to take advantage of a young Cleveland team. Cleveland is better than what they had before with Myles Garrett at DE. But he is still young and the Saints still have a QB that is a premier guy to defend against. Saints are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 road games and I like their QB rotation here with - Drew Brees, Chase Daniel, Garrett Grayson, and Ryan Nassib expected to get the majority of the 2nd half..
Mike Anthony
Denver vs. Chicago
Play: Denver -1
In his last 2 seasons, Trevor Siemian had a pretty good TD ratio as a starter last year at QB. And Siemian has some expectations to show promising play for Denver - he really needs to put together a solid game here. Many NFL teams would love to have a Defense as good as the Broncos, that they could rely on, which is still going to be awesome. Chicago will win their share of games during the season - based on their running game, and Jordan Howard is certainly talented enough. But they will likely and inevitably fall apart under pressure. I don't trust Chicago's QB situation anywhere near enough to be able to keep up vs Denver with a lack of steady direction. Mitchell Trubisky will see his share of time vs a tough D. Bears are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 Thursday games.
DAVE COKIN
TWINS AT BREWERS
PLAY: TWINS
No current line on the Thursday Twins-Brewers game, as Minnesota has made a pitching change. Minnesota will send rookie Dietrich Enns out for his big league debut, replacing Kyle Gibson.
Enns is the guy the Twins just got from the Yankees in the Jaime Garcia deal made at the deadline. The southpaw has been under the radar since the say he signed as a 2012 19th round draft choice out of Central Michigan. His name hasn’t shown up on many, or perhaps i should say any, top prospect lists.
But look at the numbers Enns has compiled as a minor leaguer. Working his way from the bottom of the organization food chain as a lefty reliever, Enns has progressed to a starting role. There’s nothing under the radar about this set of stats. In just short of 400 minor league innings, Enns has compiled a solid 27-15 record with an eye popping 1.89 ERA. I don’t care who you’re facing, that’s impressive.
Enns seems to have stepped forward even more this season. His control has improved nicely and the fact is is he simply isn’t having any bad games.
Milwaukee will send Zach Davies to the hill tonight, and make no mistake, this guy is having a terrific season. Davies was the beneficiary of some good fortune early but Davies has been truly outstanding of late. I would anticipate he’ll be tough on the Twins tonight.
The key for me here is my preference to back debuting southpaws, as they can be very tough on even big league hitters who have not seen them. Moreover, the Brewers offense has gone on an unfortunate hiatus. Milwaukee is not hitting a lick right now, and the Brewers made Bartolo Colon look like an All-Star in Wednesday’s 4-0 loss to the upstart Twins.
I think this is going to end up being a value spot on the Twins. Davies will be a significant favorite and I’ll be jumping in if I can get the right price with the Twins. I’ll update on Twitter during the day as to whether this becomes a personal service play, but I’m definitely looking to play Minnesota.
Scott Rickenbach
San Diego at Cincinnati
Play: San Diego +126
The Padres had won 4 of the 5 meetings with Cincinnati prior to yesterday's ugly 8-3 loss. Look for Dinelson Lamet to lead the way for San Diego to get right back on track against the Reds early Thursday. Lamet has been throwing extremely well in his last 3 starts - 3-0 with 1.96 ERA and 0.93 WHIP - and the Padres have won 6 of his last 8 starts! Lamet has been fantastic in those 6 outings and I expect more of the same here. The Reds, on the other hand, have not enjoyed much success with Luis Castillo on the mound. Cincinnati has lost 4 of his last 5 starts and he has struggled with command particularly in his home outings. Fade Castillo here and grab the underdog value with the Padres as they hold the pitching edge here and should improve to 5-2 in games against the Reds this season!
Art Aronson
Angels vs. Mariners
Play: Under 8
A couple of capable hurlers collide on Thursday night and it would appear that runs will likely be at a premium in this one.
Tyler Skaggs: He’s 1-2 with a 4.32 ERA. Skaggs returned from injury to face the A’s on Saturday and gave up three earned runs over four innings of work. So far Skaggs has a very respectable 3.12 ERA on the road this season.
John Paxton: He’s 12-3 with a 2.70 ERA. Paxton most recently allowed two runs off four hits with seven K’s over six frames in a victory over KC on Friday. The flame-throwing right-hander has now posted seven straight victories and struck out at least seven opponents in each of his last six trips to the hill (note that he’s been particularly effective at home this year as well by going 7-2 with a 2.15 ERA.)
The bottom line: We’re expecting these starters to battle into the latter frames which we believe will help in contributing to a lower-scoring UNDER once it’s all said and done.
Marc Lawrence
Broncos vs. Bears
Play: Bears +1½
Edges - Bears 4-0 SUATS home in this preseason series… Broncos: 2-5 SUATS preseason games vs NFC North opponents… With the host team 5-0 SUATS in this preseason series, we recommend a 1* play on Chicago.
Jesse Schule
Saints vs. Browns
Play: Browns -3
There is only one experienced NFL coach that has yet to win a pre-season game, and that's Cleveland's Hue Jackson. The Browns were 0-4 under Jackson last year, but I like their chances of picking up a rather meaningless "W" in Thursday's home game against New Orleans. The Browns might be weak at quarterback, but both Brock Osweiler and Cody Kessler have experience starting in the league. With the starter's job wide open, expect them both to play. Drew Brees came in and threw one pass in last year's pre-season opener, and we don't expect to see much of him here in this game. Sean Payton and the Saints are 0-8 in the pre-season the last two years, and Payton likely won't lose any sleep if they lose here at Cleveland. Cleveland has nothing to lose here, given that there really isn't a huge gap in talent between it's first string and second string players. I expect the Browns to keep the starters in a little longer than New Orleans, and really try to win this game.
SPORTS WAGERS
Minnesota +140 over MILWAUKEE
Zach Davies got his ERA under 4.00 with a strong finish in 2016 that included a 3.22 ERA. This year, on the surface, Davies hasn’t regressed or progressed much but underneath the hood, there is plenty of regression. Davies walk/K ratio is horrible with 41 walks issued and just 88 K’s over 131 innings. His swinging strike rate has progressively dipped in each month from 11.3% in April to just 7% in July and to 5% in his last start. What is going to stick out to the betting market is Davies’ 2.12 ERA over his last three starts but it’s all a mirage, as he was the beneficiary of extreme luck. A quick reference to his xERA of 4.77 over those last three starts assures us of that. Because we’re in the buy low/sell high business, an opportunity to sell awaits here and we’re not going to miss out. The other reason you’ll pay to back the Brewers here is because the Twinkies will start a rookie that not many have ever heard of.
At the trade deadline, the Twins acquired RHP Zack Littell and LHP Dietrich Enns from New York Yankees in exchange for LHP Jaime Garcia. It’s unusual to be able to acquire a four-pitch lefty prospect with a great track record of success for a mid-rotation starter rental, but Enns qualifies. Owner of a career 1.87 ERA in the minors and a 1.81 ERA in parts of two seasons at Triple-A, Enns just keeps getting guys out and it’s pretty easy to see why. He’s got a fastball that sits in the low 90s with quality movement and command and will mix in a slider, curve, and change that are all at least fringe-average pitches. With some deception in his motion, minor-league batters just haven’t been able to pick the ball up and drive it. He’s obviously not going to be this good in the majors, but some of it should still work, even if he ultimately ends up paring down and focusing on one or two of the off-speed pitches. The downside is that Enns is already 26, owing to a string of injuries, including Tommy John surgery in 2014. Until his return in 2015, he was mostly used as a reliever, and he’s shown both durability problems over the course of the season and in-game stamina problems. Enns might’ve been called up down the stretch last year, but instead he was moved to relief and then shut down for innings management. A poorly timed shoulder injury this April caused him to miss out on being part of the cavalcade of Yankees going through the back of the rotation but now that he’s back healthy and pitching well, they’ve moved on to acquiring more solid, proven veteran options. He’s a very good fit for what the Twins like in a pitcher and he’s a good fit for us in attacking overvalued starters like Zach Davies is here.
Cleveland -1½ +116 over TAMPA BAY
Blake Snell spent most of May and June at AAA-Durham in an attempt to get back on track, but his results since his return show no real difference. Home runs are still flying out of the park (1.4 hr/9), and a 50% first-pitch-strike rate keeps generating free passes. Snell has the stuff to do well and we trust there is going to be some good opportunities to get behind him and his winless record but this isn’t that time. For one, the Rays have cooled off considerably and they lead the AL in striking out. That does not bode well here against Danny Salazar, who is the target for this wager.
In early June, Danny Salazar barely clung to the bottom in the three-star tier. The flame-throwing righty was striking everyone out, sure, but he also was giving up almost two homers and five walks per nine innings and had a 5.40 ERA. Not great. Salazar was coming off the first of two bullpen appearances, a measure the Indians hoped would help him get things straightened out. After his second outing from the pen, he made another move, this time to the DL. The 27-year-old came off the DL on July 22 and has been HOT FLAME EMOJIS ever since. In 20 innings, Salazar has fanned 28 batters, walked only five, and has surrendered only eight hits en route to a 1.35 ERA.
Let’s get this out of the way: It’s only been three starts. There are tons of guys who can look good, nay, unhittable for three consecutive starts. Having said that, it appears to us that Salazar is taking steps on the proverbial journey from thrower to pitcher. Since coming back to the rotation, Salazar has significantly increased his fastball usage, at the expense of his vaunted changeup. Leaning on the 96 mph heater has allowed him to throw more strikes (a novel concept), and his 49.2 percent zone rate is nearly three percentage points higher than his career average. He has also enjoyed more success getting ahead of batters, throwing a first-pitch strike nearly two-thirds of the time, a rate almost 10 percentage points higher than his previous mark. In addition to the fastball and changeup tweak, Salazar also is throwing more sliders. Heading into 2017, he hadn’t thrown the pitch more than 10 percent of the time since 2014, and had all but scrapped it from his arsenal. In his past three starts, the slider has reappeared, being thrown around 12 percent of the time, and getting whiffs in almost 17 percent of his offerings. In three short outings, the slider went from an afterthought to Salazar’s second-most whiffable (yes, I know this isn’t a word, but you get me) pitch.In his most recent performance, a seven inning,
In his most recent performance, a seven inning, 12-strikeout gem against the Yankees, Salazar got 17 swinging strikes. An outing against the White Sox in late July produced 22 (!) swinging strikes. All told, Salazar has a 17.6% swinging-strike rate in his past three starts, almost six percentage points higher than his 2017 tally before the DL stint. Another change for Salazar has come from his release point. Earlier in the season it appeared as though he struggled finding consistency with his mechanics, likely leading to the aforementioned control issues. His sparkly 1.35 ERA in those three brilliant starts can be partially attributed to a .189 BABIP, along with an 86.2 percent strand rate and 6.7 percent HR/FB rate. Those marks are almost impossible to sustain and should trend closer to Salazar’s career levels, even factoring in the improved pitch mix and mechanics. That said, with Salazar’s prolific strikeout abilities, an ERA hovering around 3.00 and a 1.10-ish WHIP certainly would play and should be relatively attainable. If this is the new Danny Salazar, we definitely need to re-evaluate his position as an elite hurler. If Salazar continues this run, the price is going to be exorbitant, so now is the time to get behind him up and that’s precisely what we’re doing here.
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Indian Cowboy
Houston vs. Chicago
Play: Under 9
This Thursday evening we like the 'Under' between these two teams as you will see two motivated pitchers do well. Brad Peacock was on fire coming into his last contest as he picked up yet another win and moved to 10-1 on the season. But, take a closer look and you will realize that he gave up 7 runs in 6 innings against Toronto, including 2 walks and 3 home runs. Frankly, not that impressive. Prior to that he had given up 7 runs in his last 5 starts. We like him to be motivated and to bounce-back on Thursday evening as he faces a White Sox team who has not seen him this year, and combine that with the fact that Rodon, who has a 4.66 era but his last two efforts, has been on point. He gave up 2 runs in 7.2 innings against the Red Sox at Fenway. And, he gave up 1 run in 6.2 innings against the defending AL Champs in Cleveland. Let's roll with the 'Under' here with two motivated pitchers.
Vernon Croy
Miami at Washington
Play: Miami +135
This pick falls into one of my top MLB systems, and the Marlins have hit .309 as a team lifetime against Roark with an OBP of .393. Roark has struggled at home this season with an ERA of 5.46, with opponents hitting .287 against him. Roark has lasted just 8.2 innings in two starts against the Marlins this season, leaving him with an ERA of 8.31. Opponents have hit just .226 against Straily in night games this season, and he is coming off two straight solid starts with a total of 11 strike-outs and just 3 walks. Play Miami ML with confidence and make sure you get on my red hot all-sports run that continues this week.
Kevin Rogers
Angels at Mariners
Play: Angels +195
The Angels have won eight of their past 12 games as they travel to Seattle to begin a four-game series with the streaking Mariners. Seattle has stepped of late by winning eight of their last 11 contests as they are right in the thick of the AL Wild Card race. The M's have won four of the last six meetings with the Angels since Los Angeles swept Seattle in Anaheim back in April. James Paxton has been dominant of late for the Mariners by winning seven straight starts, while allowing 3 ER in his last four outings. Tyler Skaggs made his first start in over three months last week for the Angels, lasting only four innings in a 5-0 loss to Oakland as a -170 favorite. Skaggs beat the Mariners last September at Safeco Field as a short underdog, 10-3. The Angels have won three road series openers since June as a +145 underdog or higher and are worth serious consideration tonight.