Brandon Lee
Yankees vs. Blue Jays
Play: Yankees -143
New York is certainly worth a look here in Thursday's AL East clash with the Blue Jays. The Yankees are going to send out their big new addition in Sonny Gray, who pitched well in his debut with his new team. Gray allowed just 2 earned runs in 6 innings at Cleveland. It's another really good outing, as he's now got a 1.59 ERA in his last 7 starts. Certainly doesn't hurt that the's got a 2.54 ERA in 5 career starts against the Blue Jays, including a recent outing where he didn't allow an earned run in 6 innings. On the flip side of this Toronto sends out Marco Estrada, who is 4-7 with a 5.12 ERA in 23 starts on the year and has allowed 13 runs on 14 hits and 6 walks in his last two starts (both this season) against the Yankees.
Doug Upstone
Cleveland at Tampa Bay
Play: Cleveland -135
Tampa Bay has not been hitting and history shows that has carryover affect until they final do. Play Against underdogs with a money line of +100 or higher like the Rays, batting .190 or worse over their last three games, after a game where the bullpen was rocked for five or more earned runs. This system is 45-11, 80.4% since 2013.
Ricky Tran
Astros vs. White Sox
Play: Astros -148
Today he's siding with the Houston Astros to avoid the sweep on the road against the White Sox. He believes that the Astros' will to win will prevail and in addition it doesn't hurt to have an ace on the mound with Brad Peacock (10-1, 3.20 ERA). Left-hander Carlos Rodon (1-4, 4.66 ERA) will take the mound for the White Sox.
Houston knows they can't get complacent with their impressive American League leading 71-42 record. They need to stay hungry and finish strong heading into the playoffs. Astros Manager A.J. Hinch said, "I don't think we can look too far ahead or not take ourselves too seriously with how we're going to compete, getting healthy and staying healthy is key. We've got to get our pitching on track."
Expect a dominant performance by the Astros tonight.
Jimmy Boyd
Pirates vs. Tigers
Play:Pirates -153
My money is on Pittsburgh Thursday afternoon against Detroit. The Pirates were embarrassed yesterday in a 10-0 loss to the Tigers and should be 100% locked in for this one. Helping matters is the fact that Pittsburgh has their ace Gerrit Cole on the mound. While Cole comes in with a 4.00 ERA in 23 starts this season, he's been absolutely dealing here of late. He's working on 6 straight starts where he's pitched at least 6 innings and allowed 2 or fewer earned runs.
Detroit counters with Drew Verhagen who has pitched okay in his first two big league starts. He's got a 3.60 ERA, but has completed just 5 innings in each of his first two starts (both losses). My big concern is that in his 10 innings of work he's almost got as many walks (5) as strikeouts (7). I'll take my chances that the Pirates score enough here to secure the win.
Chip Chirimbes
Orioles vs. A's
Play: A's -102
Both clubs enter this four-game series with a pair of consecutive losses as the Orioles try and climb back into the Wild Card hunt while Oakland is beginning to think of tee times. Baltimore will start Wade Miley (5-9, 5.51 ERA) who has yet to win back-to-back decisions this season. Miley has had success against Oakland in limited action going 2-1 with a 1.80 ERA in three career starts. Athletics starter Chris Smith is a 36 year old journeyman who is the oldest Oakland player to make his first big league start. Enjoying the ride that Smith and the A's.
Chase Diamond
New York at Philadelphia
Play: Philadelphia +135
Phillies have won 3 straight off another dominant series versus the Braves seemingly the only team the Phillies can beat. Mets are 2-8 last 10 and have lost 10 of 13 games and this team seems to have zero fight. Vince Velasquez has looked a'lot better since coming back off the DL. If Vince can go deep the Phillies have a great chance at winning and this plus money is hard to not play on. Big money going in on the Mets makes me like the Phillies even more.
Matt Fargo
Orioles vs. A's
Play: A's -102
Baltimore got back to .500 with a series-opening win against the Angels but it dropped the final two games of the three-game set to fall back to two games under .500 and dropped to 2.5 games out of the final Wild Card spot in the American League. The road has been a real challenge as the Orioles are 21-35 which is the third worst record in the American League and they are 9-21 in their last 30 road games against teams with a winning home record. Oakland was coming off a 3-2 roadtrip but dropped its last two games against Seattle at home to start the week. Oakland is still four games over .500 at home and its problem is the road as well as its 19-37 record on the highway is the worst in the American League and third worst in all of baseball. They have won five of their last seven home games against teams with a losing record and face off against Wade Miley who got off to a great start to the season with a 2.82 ERA over his first 11 starts but it has been a struggle since then as he has posted an 8.55 ERA over his last 12 starts with none of those resulting in quality outings. The A's send Chris Smith to the hill and he has been decent through his first four Major League starts as he has a 4.13 ERA over 24 innings while three of those starts were quality performances. He is getting a good number here based on recent outings by both pitchers as well as the severe home/road split differentials.
King Creole
Eagles / Packers Over 38.5
If you read issue #1 of our Playbook football newsletter, then you’re probably not surprised by this call on the Eagles / Packers OVER the Total. As of Tuesday night, the OU line in this game was at 38.5 to 39 points. Most sharp bettors already know who will be playing in this game and who won’t. Based on the practice reps in Monday and Tuesday, QB Aaron Rodgers will not be playing. That’s no surprise. He’s been running the scout team this week. So it looks like a pretty heavy dose of Brett Hundley at the QB position, which is ok by me (along with Callahan and Hill in the 2nd half). Green Bay head coach Mike McCarthy wants to see a lot more of Hundley ‘playing fast’ (his words, not mine) anyway… after he was limited in last year’s pre-season due to injury.
On the flips side, we have some decent experience at the QB position for the visiting Eagles. #1 guy Carson Wentz will indeed get the call as the starter, but it remains to be seen just howling he’ll be on the field. #2 guy Nick Foles has plenty of NFL starting experience. And #3 guy Matt McGloin played in 3 games for the Raiders just last season (13 in his career). So I think we’re OK at the quarterback season.
What really has me wagering a few dollars on the OVER is each team’s tendencies as of late in pre-season play. Most of these numbers were taken from my article in issue #1 of the Playbook football newsletter…
The EAGLES have been the clear-cut BEST ‘Over’ team in pre-season play since the start of the new millennium. It doesn’t matter if they are at home OR on the road. Since the 2002 season, PHILLY Has gone 38-18-2 O/U in pre-season play (68% Overs). Since 2006, the numbers for Philly ROAD games (away or neutral) have been 15-5-1 O/U. And in the last years of pre-season play, the EAGLES have gone an almost PERFECT 10-2 O/U… with an average of 48.2 combined points per game. That’s an even HIGHER number than they average in the regular season!
The PACKERS have been a solid OVER team at HOME in the pre-season as of late… particularly when they are tabbed as home ‘chalk’ (favorites). In the last ten years, GREEN BAY has gone 12-3 O/U as pre-season home FAVORITES… with an average of 46.8 combined points per game. At last look, Green Bay was a -1 point favorite for Thursday’s game, so we’re good to go for few bucks.
**Since the 2009 pre-season, NFC NORTH Division teams (PACKERS) have gone 8-2 O/U versus NFC EAST Division teams (EAGLES). That includes a PERFECT 5-0 O/U when there NFC North team is at HOME (like Green Bay). The average combined points in these games has been 59.4. That’s not a misprint...
Larry Ness
Yankees vs. Blue Jays
Play: Yankees -143
Sonny Gray's debut with the New York Yankees was marred by three first-inning errors, as the Yanks lost 5-1 o the Indians on . The 27-year-old looks to get back on track Thursday as the visiting Yankees play the rubber match of their three-game series against the Toronto Blue Jays at Rogers Centre. The Jays won 4-2 on Tuesday but the Yankees exploded for 17 hits in Wednesday's 11-5 victory. New York remained four games behind American League East-leading Boston (Red Sox have won eight straight!) plus remain 2 1/2 games clear of Seattle for the AL's No. 1 wild card spot. Toronto has dropped three of five and just seems to be unable to make a run, as the Jays sit in the AL East basement (53-60), five games out of a the final wild card spot in the AL (seven teams are ahead of Toronto!).
Gray is 6-6 with a 3.42 ERA on the season (A's and Yanks are 8-9 in all his starts) and he'll square off against Toronto's Marco Estrada (4-7, 5.12 ERA). Gray enters this contest with a 4-3 record and a 1.59 ERA in his last seven starts.Gray has made six career starts vs the Jays, going 3-2 with a 2.54 ERA (team is 4-2). As for Estrada, he's coming off a third straight no-decision, which saw his win-less stretch extend to 12 games (he's 0-5 and the Jays 4-8 ). After permitting one run in seven innings of a 7-1 triumph over the Yankees on May 1, Estrada was ripped for seven runs in 3 2/3 innings of a 12-2 shellacking on June 1 and six runs across 4 2/3 innings of a no-decision on July 5. He's 4-3 with a 4.50 ERA in 12 career starts vs New York (team is 8-4).
The Yanks are counting on Gray to be the "difference-maker" down the stretch and that means, he'll need to win games like this. If not here, against Estrada who owns a 7.39 ERA in 12 starts since his last win, the when? I'll take the Yanks and Gray.
Will Rogers
Minnesota vs. Milwaukee
Pick: Milwaukee -152
The set-up: The Brewers lost both games in Minnesota by a combined score of 16-8 to the Twins and a return home didn't help, as the Brewers managed just five hits (all singles) in getting shut out at Miller Park last night, 4-0. The Brewers will try to salvage the finale of a four-game, home-and-home interleague series when they host the Minnesota Twins on Thursday. Milwaukee has had the good fortune that the Cubs have cooled off lately (Chicago has lost six of eight) and the Brewers remain just 1 1/2 games back in the NL Central, although they have fallen into a virtual tie with the Cards for second place and the Pirtaes are now just two games behind them. Meanwhile, the Twins have now won four in a row to get back to .500 and climb within 1 1/2 games of the second wild-card spot in the American League.
The pitching matchup: Kyle Gibson (6-9 & 6.03 ERA) was expected to take the mound for the Twins as they go for a four-game sweep but Dietrich Enns replaces Gibson, who instead will start Friday against the Tigers in Detroit. Milwaukee will counter with staff ace, Zach Davies (13-5 & 4.18 ERA). Enns made one appearance for Triple-A Rochester for the Twins, allowing two runs over seven innings and before that, he was having a solid year for the Yankees' Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre affiliate, going 1-1 with a 2.29 ERA in seven starts. Davies has allowed just four ERs on 19 hits in 28 2/3 innings (1.26 ERA) over a dominant four-game stretch (he's 2-0 but Milwaukee is just 2-2). Davies has never faced the Twins.
The pick: Sure, Davies is 7-0 with a 2.52 ERA in 12 road start (Brewers are 9-3) but just 6-5 at home, posting a 6.15 ERA. However, I have to side with Davies (note: he is 2-0 with a 1.80 ERA in three career interleague starts) to keep the Brewers from losing all four games in this series, going up against a first-time major-league starter in Enns.
Teddy Covers
New Orleans at Cleveland
Play: New Orleans +3
Hue Jackson went 0-4 SU and ATS in his lone preseason as the head coach of the Oakland Raiders. Jackson followed that 0-fer up with an 0-4 SU and ATS mark in his first season with the Browns last year. Much of that was circumstantial – the Browns Week 1 roster last year had more rookies on it than any non-expansion team in NFL history.
But when we’re talking about a major steam line move – this game opened at pick em and is now painted Cleveland -3 with extra vig to support the favorite – that type of track record certainly doesn’t inspire confidence in this bettor! Whatever value their might have been with the Browns at pick em or -1 is long gone now.
Most pointspread decisions -- whether in the NFL Preseason or regular season or playoffs -- are decided after halftime. The mainstream media and the betting markets often play far too much attention to the ‘how much playing time are the starters going to get?’ announcements, as opposed to the ‘who is going to be on the field after halftime?’ question.
And much like last year in August, the Browns second half rotations look spotty at best – limited skill position talent, questionable offensive line chemistry and a QB rotation that doesn’t inspire much confidence. Rookie DeShone Kizer and fourth stringer ‘never will be’ Kevin Hogan are slated for the second half of this game, not exactly a bet-on duo.
Drew Brees won’t see the field tonight, but Chase Daniel, who has been excellent in preseasons past is likely to get extended playing time. And the Saints have a legitimate battle for the third string job – a bet-on situation in August – between a pair of guys who have plenty of experience against third string defenses in August, Garrett Grayson and Ryan Nassib. That duo is most assuredly not a ‘bet-on’ tandem in September, but in August, at +3, they’re a bet-no duo all the way! Take the Saints.
Rob Vinciletti
New Orleans at Cleveland
Play: Under 38
This game pits last years 2 winless preseason teams. That sets up a solid totals system that pertains to week favorites that were winless in last seasons NFLX schedule. The Browns have stayed under in to the tune of 7-01 the last 2 years. Both teams are improved on defense and we should see that here. The Saints have used a vanilla offense in these games and both teams are not particularly deep on the offensive side of the ball which should keep this game under the total.
Bob Balfe
Bears +1
I am excited to get the regular season started, but first we have a little preseason action to take care of. I will not be playing too many preseason games as coaches are starting to really hold back key player to avoid injury. Maybe one day the NFL will narrow this preseason down to only a game or two. The Broncos enter the season with a new head coach. It’s hard to put everything together to win football games. Adjusting to a new system is always tough. The main reason I like Chicago is because the Broncos Defense is set and ready to go for the season. There is no need to get them hurt and most of the backups are not that good. The Bears have more depth because they can afford to pay the 2nd and 3rd stringers more. Chicago comes into the year with 4 QB’s that have never thrown a pass in a Bears uniform. In order to find out the QB rotation these QB’s are going to sling the ball all over the place. I believe the Bears will be the more aggressive team tonight and will be the team that actually tries to win this football game that doesn’t count. John Fox was the Broncos coach until they fired him and went on to win the Super Bowl the very next year. You know for a fact Fox was bitter about that. Fox wants a win against his old team, preseason or not.
Jim Feist
Marlins at Nationals
Pick: Under
Washington is a big park, great for pitchers, and there's no DH in this NL contest. Miami starter Dan Straily (3.77 ERA) has been decent, allowing 2 runs or less in 7 of his last 10 starts. Miami is on a 4-1-1 run under the total. Washington is 6-2 under against losing teams and has a good strikeout pitcher going in Tanner Roark. The Under is 4-1 in Roark's last 5 home starts.
Bruce Marshall
Vikings at Bills
Pick: Vikings
Purely out of respect for Mike Zimmer's preseason marks, now 12-1 SU and 11-2 vs. line the past three years, the Vikes are worth a vote. Capable QBing for Minnesota down the line with Case Keenum and ODU's Taylor Heinicke. New regime getting underway with McDermott in Buffalo. Might see lots of Pitt rookie Nathan Peterman at QB for Bills.