Free Picks for Thursday, August 31st, 2017 from some of the nations best and worst handicappers
Mike Anthony
Tulsa vs. Oklahoma St
Play: Tulsa +18
The Cowboys enter the season as a team that many believe could win the Big 12 and challenge for a spot in the CFP. I’m not as trusting of their defense, or their performance in big games. Tulsa is a team the Pokes may overlook somewhat. But the Golden Hurricane can run the ball and play good defense. They covered 7 of their last 8 and they have a good system and coach. They wont win but they'll keep it close within the number.
Marc Lawrence
Chargers vs. 49ers
Play: 49ers -1
Edges - 49ers: 5-1-1 ATS preseason Game Four… Chargers: 0-7 SU and 1-5-1 ATS in this preseason series; and 1-4-1 AST preseason Game Four… With the Niners off consecutive losses and the Chargers off their first preseason win against their crosstown rival Rams, we recommend a 1* play on San Francisco.
Matt Josephs
Tulsa at Oklahoma St
Play: Over 71
I really have high expectations for the Cowboys who should be in the mix for a Big 12 championship. They have a great group of WRs and Mason Rudolph will get the ball to them. Tulsa's pass defense wasn't great last year and could be under siege in this one. OSU's defense isn't that good, but I think they'll show out in terms of playing well in shootouts. The theory is that Oklahoma State will be in front a ton and they'll be able to tee off on the opposition. Tulsa's offense is no slouch themselves with D'Angelo Brewer at running back and some decent wide receivers. OSU has gone over in 11 of their last 14 home games and 15 of their last 18 at home where the total is greater then or equal to 70. Tulsa has gone over in 15 of their last 26. I think this one is another shootout.
Scott
Jacksonville at Atlanta
Play: Atlanta -3
The Falcons are winless on the preseason. Granted it is only preseason but you’re still talking about the team that should have won the Super Bowl last season. They had the Patriots beaten in that game. The point is that even though this is only preseason you’re still talking about a quality team with quality depth and they are at home here. The Falcons have a solid QB rotation and they’re laying a small number against a Jacksonville team that doesn’t have the talented depth that Atlanta has. Jacksonville did get an upset win at New England in week one of the preseason but, since then, they’re 0-2 and this is a team that went just 1-3 in the preseason last year. In fact Jags head coach Doug Marrone entered this campaign with a 3-6 SU mark (and only 1 cover in 9 games) in preseason action. Look for the Falcons to finally get into the win column and the fact this line moved down from an opener of 3.5 means we’re getting additional value here.
Robert Ferringo
Florida International at Central Florida
Play: Over 58
That is now three of four winning free football picks, and I am looking forward to dealing out more winners this week. I will have a 6-Unit College Football Play on Thursday night and then I am coming back with a 7-Unit College Football Play on Saturday as I play for a big weekend. As for this free play, this total has spiked three whole points this week for good reason. I think that Central Florida will be able to get to 40 points all by themselves in this one. Coach Scott Frost utilizes the same fast-paced offense that was a hallmark of the Oregon Ducks over the past decade. And with nine starters back on offense this team should improve significantly on the 28.8 points per game they managed last year. UCG hung 53 points on Florida International on the road last season (53-14), and I expect more of the same here in the opener. FIU has three-year starters at quarterback, running back, wide receiver and at both tackle spots. I can see them ringing up 20 points themselves, and I think that this one will be a shootout.
Indian Cowboy
Florida International (+17) over Central Florida
We roll with Butch Davis and new-look Florida International as they face UCF in a game that featured these two teams last year and saw FIU get routed 14-53. Without a doubt, FIU remembers that game, and note that Butch Davis has a track record of a wealth of experience and he knows how to turn programs around fast (albeit, he has gotten in trouble with the NCAA in the past). But, per this game, you have a coach who has a team with revenge, returns 15 starters and 4-year starters at quarterback and running back, which speaks volumes to what this team could do. And, given the talent that UCF lost over the off-season as they only return back four starters on defense, this sets up nicely for Butch Davis to make an impact here for his new ball club. Scott Frost's team is very good for a team that did not do nearly any winning as he took them to 6 wins and a bowl game last year. However, having said that, this is a game that means far more to FIU than it does to UCF. We like FIU to hang tough here and to likely lose by around 10-14 points.
Tony George
Ohio State (-20.5) over Indiana
Yes, this is not mid-season. Yes, almost 3 TDs is a huge number in Week 1 for anyone. Yes, I love taking dogs or laying short numbers only in Week 1. Yes Indiana gave OSU all they wanted last year and made a game of it at Ohio State until late in the game, but Indiana's fired head coach Kevin Wilson is now Ohio State's Offensive Coordinator. Do you think he wants to pull a can of whoop ass out with some bad feelings towards his ex-employer? I do, big time, and he has QB JT Barrett and company to do so. Barrett ran all over Indiana for 137 yards last year in a 21-point home win. Ohio State has 15 starters back and a lot of preseason hype, but it is warranted. They have a shut down defense (8 starters on D) that allowed just 15 PPG last year and wants to prove something out of the gate after getting crushed 31-0 by Clemson in the postseason last year. Meyer hasn't slept a full night since that debacle, I assure you! While the QB position is solid and the RB tandem of Weber and newcomer Dobbins will be effective behind one of the better OL's in the Big 10 with 4 starters back, I expect OSU to throw it around and improve their passing game, starting tonight. An entirely new coaching staff against one of the best teams in the country, even at home, will have Indiana back on their heels early despite the prowess of their stud QB Rich Lagow, who has a big arm and a couple of big time WRs. Not enough, gents, against a team who is a Top 5 team in the nation in my opinion and looking to make an opening day statement against a conference foe.
Alan Harris
Ottawa (PK) over Montreal
The Ottawa Redblacks will look to extend their win streak to three games when they hit the road to take on the Alouettes at Percival-Molson Memorial Stadium in Montreal, QC, on Thursday night. Ottawa has posted a 5-2 ATS record in their last seven games where they faced a team with a losing record and they have gone an excellent 6-2 ATS in their last eight games versus a team from the East Division. They have also covered the number in nine of their last twelve games overall going back to the end of the 2016 season, and they are a light's out 15-6 ATS in their last 21 road games. The Alouettes, on the other hand, have struggled a bit in the spot they are in here on Thursday night as they have gone just 1-4 ATS in their last five Week 11 games over the past five seasons and they are an awful 5-12 ATS in their last seventeen home games. Throw in the fact that Ottawa is 7-1 ATS in the last eight head-to-head meetings between the two teams and we'll take them at the pick as we have them getting the outright win in Montreal on Thursday evening.
Cappers Club
Buffalo vs. Minnesota
Play: Buffalo +24
Some Trends to note. The Buffalo Bulls and the Minnesota Golden Gophers kick off their season on Thursday night, and the Bulls have some value against the spread here.
The Gophers are going to be using two quarterbacks on Thursday night, and although PJ Fleck seems to say how that is going to work to their advantage, I just don't see it.
I think it won't allow either of the quarterbacks to get in rhythm so I think that will keep the Gophers points down.
The Gophers secondary is also very young, and I think they will make a few mistakes early, and that will allow Buffalo to keep it close.
Some trends to note. Bulls are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 vs. Big Ten. Golden Gophers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games.
Teddy Covers
Ohio St vs. Indiana
Play: Under 57½
Teddy is a proven winner in college football, 87-64 (58%) over the past two seasons and 1-0 already this year. Don’t miss his Absolute Annihilator Report for Thursday Night, and cash in with an easy blowout winner!
The Indiana Hoosiers certainly weren’t an Under team in the Kevin Wilson era. Wilson emphasized pushing the pace on offense, and the Indiana defense paid the price, allowing at least 33 points per game in the first five years that Wilson was in Bloomington.
That all changed last year. First year defensive coordinator Tom Allen actually had some talent to work with and he crafted a truly dramatic improvement . After allowing 38 points and 510 yards per game in 2015, the Hoosiers allowed only 27 points and 380 yards per game last year.
The Indiana defense is primed to be even better in 2017. Allen is now the head coach, and the team has taken a ‘defense first’ mentality throughout camp. Indiana returns nine starters on their stop unit, seven of them seniors. Expect the Indiana defense to be improved once again in 2017; their best defense in more than a decade.
Kevin Wilson is now Ohio State’s offensive coordinator, and, surprise, surprise, he’s looking to go uptempo. As we’ve seen so many times in college football, the first few games in a new, fast paced offense aren’t necessarily pretty to watch, particularly in the red zone.
And let’s not forget how far this offense fell last year with JT Barrett behind center. Ohio State closed out the season like this: They scored 17 points on 310 yards of offense in a one point win over 3-9 Michigan State. They scored one TD in regulation against Michigan – on a four yard drive, following a Wolverines fumble. And then they were shut out by Clemson in the Fiesta Bowl. The talent is there for Wilson and Urban Meyer to work with, but the execution has not been there. I’m not convinced that changes in Week 1.
While this is Indiana’s best defense in a decade plus, it might be their worst offense in a decade as well. The Hoosiers suffered major graduation losses on their offensive line, likely to start three sophomores and no seniors. Their best receiving playmaker, Simmie Cobbs, is awaiting word on a possible suspension after getting arrested over the summer. It’s ‘running back by committee’, without a standout talent. And Hoosiers QB Richard Lagow lacks the mobility to scramble out of pressure against the Buckeyes fearsome pass rush. Put it all together and we can expect a relatively low scoring affair that stays Under the total.
Brian Hay
Ohio State vs. Indiana
Play: Ohio State -21
I understand Indiana gave Ohio State all they wanted last year and made a game of it at Ohio State until late in the game. Indiana fired head coach Kevin Wilson after last season and he is now Ohio State's Offensive Coordinator. Just how bad do you think he wants to rub Indian's nose in it tonight. Ohio State QB JT Barrett ran all over Indiana last year racking up 137 rushing yards. The Buckeyes have 15 starters back and as usual lot of preseason hype. They return eight starters from a defense that only allowed 15 points per game last year. Ohio State will look to remove the bad taste left by Clemson's 31-0 defeat in their last game last year. Indiana is breaking in an entirely new coaching staff against one of the best teams in the country. This is a statement game for Ohio State.
DAVE COKIN
BROWNS AT BEARS
PLAY: BROWNS +3
The final week of the NFL preseason is one in which most of the starters don’t see the field. It’s the last chance for coaching staffs to evaluate the depth charts and make the critical final decisions as to who makes the team and who gets cut.
But not surprisingly, the Cleveland Browns are not sticking to that script. The starters will see some action in this exhibition finale. I can’t imagine more than one quarter, but that’s still an edge. It indicates to me that head coach Hue Jackson would like to maintain the 3-0 momentum, as he tries to get away from the culture of losing that has surrounded this franchise for way too long.
The Bears will evidently not play any of their starters in this game. Mitchell Trubisky and Connor Shaw will split all the snaps, as they’re also not bothering with Mark Sanchez.
I can’t say for sure that the Browns are doing any particular game planning here. But if they’re utilizing the starters early in the game, it would also logically follow they are implementing some kind of game plan for at least that portion of the game.
I see that as an edge, and that’s what the whole idea is when it comes to handicapping these games that don’t count. So with that in mind, I’m looking at taking the points with Cleveland on Thursday night.
Wunderdog
Cincinnati @ Indianapolis
Pick: Under 36.5
The Bengals enter the contest at 1-2, having been out-scored by 13 points in their three preseason games. The Colts enter at 1-2 as well having been out-scored by 15 points in their third game. This is the finale after the so-called dress rehearsal, and starters will likely not play more than one series, if at all, on either side of the ball. More often than not, this game is used to get one last look at fringe players that may make the roster, but the biggest goal is to avoid injuries as much as possible. The best way to do that is to shorten the game, and keep the clock moving, but also to finish the game with players that will likely not make the roster, if those decisions have been mostly made at that point. Not a lot of opportunity for scoring here, to play the UNDER.
3G-Sports
Florida Intl vs. Central Florida
Play: Florida Intl +17
I like Butch Davis and new-look Florida International teams they face UCF in a game that featured these two teams last year and saw FIU get routed 53-14. Without a doubt, FIU remembers that game, and note that Butch Davis has a track record of a wealth of experience and he knows how to turn programs around fast. Now you have a coach who has a team with revenge, returns 15 starters and 4-year starters at quarterback and running back, which speaks volumes to what this team could do. And, given the talent that UCF lost over the off-season as they only return back four starters on defense, this sets up nicely for Butch Davis to make an impact here for his new ball club especially ATS. I just think 17 pts is too much and we'll back the UNDERDOG in this one with Flor INT on Thursday evening.