Power Sports
Red Sox at Yankees
Pick: Yankees -135
The Yanks were swept in a doubleheader (here at home) yday by the red hot Indians, which will have most afraid to touch them tonight as they open up a big weekend series w/ rival Boston. Entering play on Thursday, the team in pinstripes trails the Red Sox by 5.5 games in the AL East. This despite a superior run differential (+125 to +93). Boston has won three straight (just swept Toronto) but I like the Yanks in tonight's series opener as they're a good "buy" at this price in the Bronx.
Boston has pulled ahead of New York by virtue of an 18-8 August. But before they swept the Blue Jays, let's not forget they'd been swept (in embarrassing fashion) at home by Baltimore (outscored 25-4). It's tough to like them here w/ Eduardo Rodriguez on the bump, even though he did throw six shutout innings against the Yankees earlier this month. But in the three starts that have followed, his ERA and WHIP are 6.11 and 1.302. He has actually not won a decision since May 25th!
CC Sabathia is working on five days' rest here for the Yankees. The current Red Sox lineup is batting a collective .187 off him. He's off B2B quality outings, both wins, one of them coming as a +230 ML dog against Boston! He outpitched Chris Sale that day, allowing two runs and four hits in 6 IP. He followed that up by allowing only one run in seven innings last Friday against Seattle. The Yankees do have a winning record vs. Boston this year (8-7) and I'm not sure that they aren't the better team here.
DAVE PRICE
Nationals vs. Brewers
Play: Brewers -110
The Milwaukee Brewers are still trying to chase down the Cubs in the NL Central, while the Washington Nationals have already won the NL East. The Brewers will be the hungrier team here. Zach Davies is 2-1 with a 1.37 ERA and 1.02 WHIP in his last 3 starts. Davies has never lost to the Nationals, going 2-0 with a 2.33 ERA in 3 lifetime starts against them. He pitched 7 2/3 shutout innings at Washington on July 25th in his last start against them. Gio Gonzalez is 2-3 with a 4.57 ERA and 1.41 WHIP in 8 lifetime starts against the Brewers.
JOHN MARTIN
Texas vs. Houston
Play: Texas +162
The Houston Astros have been the worst team to bet in the month of August in terms of ROI. They are clearly distracted right now with all of the flooding in Houston. They don't need wins right now because they have the AL West wrapped up. The Rangers need wins to stay alive in the wild card. They have dominated the Astros in the first two games of this series at Tropicana Field, outscoring them 20-3 despite being big dogs in both games. The value is great again with the +162 Rangers again today. Nick Martinez is 3-1 with a 3.24 ERA in six previous starts against Houston. Collin McHugh has posted a 5.30 ERA and 1.69 WHIP in seven previous starts against Texas.
JACK JONES
Chicago at Minnesota
Play: Chicago +137
I'm baffled by the fact that Bartolo Colon is nearly a -150 favorite today. The Twins have a lot to play for, but this is still a division rivalry, and the White Sox will be motivated to try and avoid the sweep after losing the first two games of this series.
Colon is clearly one of the worst starters in baseball. He is 6-10 with a 6.35 ERA and 1.634 WHIP in 21 starts this season, including 3-5 with a 6.94 ERA and 1.625 WHIP in nine home starts. There's no way he should ever be this kind of favorite.
Miguel Gonzalez has actually been very good here down the stretch for the White Sox. He is 1-0 with a 1.35 ERA and 1.150 WHIP in his last three starts, giving up just 3 earned runs in 20 innings to the Tigers, Rangers & Dodgers. He has given up just 3 earned runs in 13 innings for a 2.08 ERA in his last two starts against the Twins as well.
Minnesota is 10-19 (-10.6 Units) against the money line in home games in day games this season.
JIMMY BOYD
Tulsa vs. Oklahoma St
Play: Tulsa +18.5
Tulsa continued it’s upward swing in year two under head coach Philip Montgomery. The Golden Hurricane had won just 5 combined games the two years prior to Montgomery’s arrival. He guided them to a 6-7 record and bowl bid in his first year on the job. Tulsa followed it with an impressive 10-3 campaign. That included a 55-10 blowout win over Central Michigan in their bowl matchup.
The Golden Hurricane bring back a respectable 13 starters. However, they do have to replace James Flanders (1,629 rushing yards, 18 TDs), starting quarterback Dane Evans (3,348 yards 32 TDs) and two 1,000-yard receivers.
What you have to keep in mind is that Montgomery has a history of putting up big offensive numbers regardless of the talent he has to work with. Back in his time with Baylor, it didn’t matter who was the starting quarterback or skill players. I fully expect sophomore QB Chad President (high recruit) to put up big numbers ins first year as a starter.
He’s also got more weapons to work with than you might think given what they lost. Backup running back D’Angelo Brewer rushed for 1,435 yards and 7 scores last year. Wide outs Keenon Johnson and Justin Hobbs are poised to take a big step and they are high on red-shirt freshman Josh Stewart. Not to mention they have a top level o-line with 4 starters coming back.
I also think you have to take into consideration that Oklahoma State had some struggles out of conference early last year. Most notably their 27-30 home loss to Central Michigan as a 20-point favorite. No question the Cowboys have some studs on offense, but the defense loses a lot from a unit that gave up 446 ypg last year, which was 92nd in the country. I think Oklahoma State is getting a little to much respect early, while the Golden Hurricane are flying under the radar.
Tulsa has gone 7-3 ATS in non-conference and 6-1 ATS as a road dog in the first two years under Montgomery. That includes a road game at Big 12 powerhouse Oklahoma in his first year on the job. Golden Hurricanes kept it respectable in a 38-52 defeat as a 30-point road dog. I expect the same thing here.
DOUG UPSTONE
Blue Jays vs. Orioles
Play: Orioles -133
The Baltimore offense is mashing, while the Toronto bullpen is getting mashed and the offense is dormant. In this case, today we find underdogs with a money line of +100 or higher like the Blue Jays, batting .190 or worse over their last three games, after a game where the bullpen was rocked for five or more earned runs are 11-45 the last five years.
Chris Jordan
As I told you the last two days, it is tough to go against the league's most dominating baseball team, but I liked the Arizona Diamondbacks to upset the Los Angeles Dodgers the last two nights, and if the best team in baseball is in a lull - then so be it. I'm taking the Snakes as my free play this afternoon, as the National League West rivals conclude their three-game series at Chase Field in Phoenix.
I'm not listing pitchers, as I believe Arizona's six-game win streak will provide enough momentum, just as I said two nights back in going against Rich Hill, and yesterday in carrying the flow over.
The Diamondbacks have not only won six straight, but they're 44-23 at home after last night's win over L.A. They're three games in front of the Colorado Rockies for the top wild-card spot, which is all they can hope for at this point, since their 17 games back of the Dodgers in the West.
The Snakes have the fifth-best home batting average (.273) in the bigs, and second-best runs scored (373) at home.
Take Arizona here, as it shocks L.A. again.
2* DIAMONDBACKS
Eric Schroeder
My free play for Thursday afternoon is on the Under in the Los Angeles Dodgers and the Arizona Diamondbacks.
After the Dodgers have suffered four straight losses, it's time they get a reprieve with superior pitching. Maeda is in after posting his best outing of the season last Friday, when he fired six innings of one-hit, one-run ball against the Milwaukee Brewers. Right-handed batters are struggling, hitting .130 off the righty since the All-Star break. The Snakes will struggle.
The already struggling Dodgers will have to face their former pitcher, and Greinke is in after picking up his 15th win of the year his last time out, against the San Francisco Giants last Friday, tying him with Clayton Kershaw for the Major League lead. Greinke has 182 strikeouts in 166.1 innings this season, and I like the right-hander to be at his best today.
This one stays low.
1* Dodgers-Diamondbacks Under
Jack Brayman
My free play is off the night card, as I like the Baltimore Orioles to get things done over the Seattle Mariners.
Baltimore continues its ride after sweeping the American League East-leading Boston Red Sox at Fenway Park last weekend, and carrying the momentum into their next series and extending their win streak to seven games. Now sitting three games above .500, the Orioles are 1 1/2 games back from the second wild-card spot and they're 41-26 at home.
The momentum is real, and in hosting a division rival that has lost four in a row, things are getting better and better for the O's. Toronto is now in a 7-1 loss to the visiting Boston Red Sox on last night. The last place Jays closed a six-game homestand with a 1-5 record and has lost 10 of 12 overall.
Toronto won't be able to hang with Baltimore's offense, which has scored four or more runs in six of the seven games during the win streak.
I'm not listing pitchers. Just look for Baltimore to roll past Toronto in this one, while laying a cheap price doing so.
3* ORIOLES
Tommy Brunson
Thursday free play is Baltimore at home against the heartless Toronto Blue Jays.
The Orioles are very much alive in the jammed-up American League Wild Card race, as they just completed a 3-game sweep at home over the Seattle Mariners to extend their winning streak to 7 in a row.
The Blue Jays laid down like they have done all season long, dropping all 3 at home to the Red Sox, as Toronto is now 1-6 overall their last 7 games played.
Baltimore has won 4 of the 5 season series meetings played at Camden Yards, and they will send Jeremy Hellickson to the mound to look to continue their winning ways against Toronto's Marco Estrada.
The O's have won Hellickson's last pair of starts, and they have backed him in those starts with a total of 25 runs plated. The Jays conversely have lost 2 of Estrada's last 3 starts, with 21 runs plated against in those 3.
Toronto has not shown the heart needed to at least try and play spoiler, so expect Baltimore to notch another on their quest for a Wild Card ticket.
4* BALTIMORE
GREG SHAKER
UL Monroe / Memphis Over 33 1st Half
Yes this is a lot of points for a 1st half. But the Warhawks who Hail from Monroe Louisiana are just that bad on defense. Memphis should have their way as often as they want to with their High Tempo, High Powered Offense. Only Navy Forced fewer Punts from the Opposition last season than did UL Monroe. The Tigers averaged over 38 PPG last season, most always from better opponents than this team and over 42 PPG in Non Conference Games. QB Ferguson likely to hit a couple of big ones against a Pass D that was #115 last season and not likely to improve that much. I do see the Warhawks getting a score in the 1st half but frankly I don't see that as necessary..
Rob Vinciletti
Jacksonville at Atlanta
Play: Atlanta -3
The Falcons fit a nice long term system that plays on NFLX Game 4 home favorites that are 0-3. The Falcons also fit a secondary system that plays on teams off 2+ straight up favored losses, vs an opponent that scored 10 or more and lost like Jacksonville. The Falcons are the defending NFC Champs and will likely play this one to win and avoid an embarrassing winless preseason schedule.
Vernon Croy
Toronto vs Baltimore
Play: Toronto
This pick falls into one of my top MLB systems, and the Jays have the superior pitcher on the mound Thursday. The Orioles have hit just .189 as a team lifetime against Estrada and just .187 as a team in 20.2 innings against him this season leaving Estrada with an ERA of 1.31. The Jays have hit .248 as a team lifetime against Hellickson with an OBP of .331 and Hellickson has struggled in his two starts at Camden Yards with an ERA of 5.40. Hellickson has an ERA of 5.90 since the All-Star break and I look for the Jays bats to come alive against him tonight.
Bob Balfe
Giants -105
A couple years ago these were the guys we couldn’t wait to see pitch. Wacha has looked like a Triple A pitcher and the Giants are so bad that Bumgarner is being wasted, but he is still having a great season. Imagine a pitcher with an ERA under 3.00 and he is only 3-6. That is why you can’t look so much at wins for pitchers. I expect Bumgarner to have another great game and Wacha to continue to struggle. This should be a lower scoring game, but I like San Fran as they should not need the bullpen until later in this one.
Bruce Marshall
Ravens at Saints
Pick: Ravens
If nothing else, John Harbaugh seems to win these games, now 7 preseason SU wins in a row and 8 straight covers (if you laid 3 1/2 last week vs. Bills). Saints have won again now twice in pre after long losing streak, but this is a vote for Harbaugh's more-extended preseason success. The non-Flacco QBs are doing just enough and Raven "D" has allowed single digits in all preseason games. Even the 2s and 3s are flying on defense for Ravens.