Free Picks for Thursday, August 3rd, 2017 from some of the nations best and worst handicappers
Robert Ferringo
Baltimore (-125) over Detroit
the Tigers are on borrowed time. They didn't blow up the team by trading Miguel Cabrera or Justin Verlander, but this team also knows that it isn't going to make the playoffs this year so I expect wild fluctuations in their level of play. They faced Houston over the weekend then went to the Bronx for a set against the Yankees. That means they are primed for a letdown here in a trip down to Baltimore against the desperate Orioles. Matt Boyd has been 'better' since coming back from the minors. But he has still given up at least three runs in 10 straight starts and he has a 5.30 ERA on the season. The Orioles lit him up for seven runs in just over two innings the last time they saw him back on May 16, and I think they will hit him hard here as well. The Orioles are 6-2 in their last eight home games and the Tigers are just 2-5 against teams that are above .500. I think the Orioles need this one more and I think they will take advantage of playing against a disinterested Tigers team.
Vernon Croy
Atlanta (+1.5) over Los Angeles Dodgers
This pick falls into one of my top MLB systems, and the Braves have hit .377 as a team lifetime against Wood with an OBP of .437 so we are getting great value on the runline Thursday. Wood had an ERA of 4.01 over his four starts last month, and he allowed 7 earned runs in his second last start, which was at home against this Braves team. The Dodgers have hit just .158 as a team lifetime against Newcomb, and he is coming off his best start of July, allowing 1 earned run, and just 2 hits over 5 innings of work. Play Atlanta +1.5 with confidence.
Dave Cokin
New York at Colorado
Play: Colorado -1
I see lots of reasons to back Colorado in this game. First off, it’s the first Coors outing for Mets righty Rafael Montero. Pitchers experiencing that ballpark for the first time frequently have problems as it’s simply a different environment than what they’re used to. I’ll put a little caveat into the mix in this instance as Montero has plenty of experience pitching in Las Vegas, which can also be a real pain in the butt for pitchers as the ball absolutely flies In LV. But let’s just say I am having a hard time envisioning Montero doing well on this game.
The Rockies will be sending German Marquez to the hill. Truth be told, Marquez has emerged as the ace of the Colorado staff. He’s a actually got a helluva good ledger that includes an overall ERA barely above 4. That’s outstanding for a pitcher having to work half his innings in the Denver altitude. I give Marquez a big edge on the mound, as the righty has been in excellent for lately and I expect more of the same today.
As for other elements, one would think the Rockies are a bit steamed with themselves after blowing a 5-0 lead on Wednesday night, and that loss put them back behind the Diamondbacks in the wild card pecking order.
Finally, this is a day game. The Mets have been terrible all season under the sun, while Colorado has a tremendous day game ledger this season.Good game to utilize the -1 ploy, splitting the play between the money line and runs line, and that’s what I’m doing with the Rockies
Scott Rickenbach
Cardinals vs. Brewers
Play: Under 9
The Under is 13-4-4 in the Cardinals last 21 games. The Under is also 15-4-1 in Milwaukee's last 20 games. The Brewers Matt Garza has a fantastic 1.65 ERA in his last 3 starts. The Cardinals Michael Wacha has a stellar 1.86 ERA in his last 6 starts. Looking at Wacha's last 3 starts, he has compiled a sparkling 0.67 WHIP! The under is 5-0 in Garza's last 5 starts and Wacha has not had a single over in his last 5 starts. The Brewers offense is averaging just 2.3 runs per game in their last 6 games. The Cardinals are averaging just 2 runs per game in their last 6 games. Look for more of the same early Thursday afternoon in what should be a pitchers duel!
Mike Lundin
Mariners vs. Royals
Play: Over 9½
The Kansas City Royals are well in the mix in the AL Central, sitting second in the division just a few games back of the Indians. I think they'll need to give newly acquired Trevor Cahill plenty of run support here to have any chance of winning this game.
Cahill (4-3, 4.15 ERA) was tagged with five runs on eight hits with a pair of homers in four innings at Boston in his first start for the Royals since coming over from San Diego. The current Mariners are batting a combined .329 over 82 at bats against the right-hander.
Yovani Gallardo (5-7, 5.34 ERA) will take the ball for Seattle. He was very solid in July posting a 2.37 ERA through 19 innings of work, but note that over is 4-1-1 in Gallardo's last six starts overall. KC's Melky Cabrera is 5-for-11 in previous meetings with Gallardo.
The Royals are a very streaky team that played excellent baseball in the second half of July only to score just three runs through their last three games (all at Baltimore). I think their bats will come alive again tonight as they return home to Kauffman Stadium, and my free pick is on this matchup to go over the total.
Art Aronson
Mariners vs. Royals
Play: Over 9½
A couple of inconsistent hurlers collide in this one on Thursday night. All signs point to a “slug-fest.”
Yovani Gallardo: He’s 5-7 with a 5.34 ERA. Gallardo comes in off a strong outing against the Mets on Saturday, giving up one run off five hits over five innings. However note, to go along with his unimpressive 5.34 ERA Gallardo also sports a poor 1.47 WHIP and is just 3-4 with a 4.99 ERA on the road.
Trevor Cahill: He’s 4-3 with a 4.15 ERA. Cahill was rocked for five runs off eight his over four innings in his debut for KC against Boston, lucky to earn a no-decision for his pathetic effort.
The bottom line: We think Gallardo’s road struggles continue and we expect Cahill to once again struggle in the AL format.
Marc Lawrence
Cardinals vs. Brewers
Play: Cardinals -120
Edges - Cardinals: Wacha 5-0 day team starts this season; and 6-2 career team starts during August… Brewers: Garza 1-5 day team starts this season; and 8 BBs with 9 Ks last three team starts… With Wacha in strong KW form with 19 Ks and 2 BBs his last three efforts, we recommend a 1* play on St. Louis.
Mike Anthony
St Louis vs. Milwaukee
Play: Milwaukee +113
Travis Shaw has been crushing the ball with all the doubles he is hitting, especially with runners on base - and is showing tremendous power in the 4th spot for Milwaukee. Shaw has an enormous amount of potential to become a truly dominant bat force in MLB for many years to come. Milwaukee has been playing down - but at home they are a different team. This St. Louis team is just not good enough to win games vs division competing teams like the Brewers, and they can't win on the road - with the poor position players being sent out there. Many players have had strong starts and then MLB pitchers adjust their stuff, which one of the reasons why Randal Grichuk has been only batting .224 on the road.
Jim Feist
Phillies at Angels
Pick: Over
This is a low total and Philadelphia picks up the DH for this series. Starter Jerad Eickhoff (2-7, 4.56 ERA) allows a lot of base runners and has a 5.36 ERA on the road. The Phillies are 31-14-6 over the total in interleague games, 16-5-3 over in IL road games against a right-handed starter. LA goes with Parker Bridwell, with a 3.72 ERA at home. The over is 19-8-2 when the Angels play interleague games vs. a right-handed starter.
SPORTS WAGERS
Tampa Bay +141 over HOUSTON
Colin McHugh has made just two starts since returning from an injury that shelved him for the entire year up to that point. Both of his starts this year have come on the road at Baltimore and Detroit and he’ll now make his first home start. McHugh gave up two jacks in Baltimore. In his two starts, he induced six groundouts to 22 fly-ball outs for a GB/FB split of 21%/54%. That does not bode well in this park. His velocity is down to 90.1 MPH. An increasingly elevated hit rate suggests that 2014 was a fluke, as more fly-balls and newfound HR issues helped fuel a mediocre dominant start/disaster start split. Yeah, he could rebound slightly, but his upside is less interesting than it was a year ago and now he’s much overpriced.
Blake Snell is winless this year in 13 starts, which is bordering on ludicrous because he’s a quality starter. Because he’s without a win, we get him at a bargain price here and we’re all over it. Snell struggled early on and was sent down on May 13 before returning on June 28. This top prospect brought his big strikeout rate with him this time. His swing and miss rate of 15% since retuning is a nice building block and greater success should follow as soon as his luck normalizes. Blake Snell has struck 19 batters in his last 21 frames. His line-drive rate (14%) and swinging strikes reveal his true upside. Perhaps Snell is not quite "there" yet, but he is on his way and so now would be the time to invest in his live arm. Overlay.
MINNESOTA -1½ +148 over Texas
Adalberto Mejia is not the target here. The target is fading the Rangers with A.J. Griffin starting but before we give you the details, we’ll tell you that Medjia will face a Rangers team that is last in the AL in road OPS at .687 and that has only a .680 OPS against LHP. This is a favorable matchup for Minnesota’s starter.
One of our fade angles this year has been to bet against starters off a long layoff and that applies here to A.J. Griffin. Griffin last pitched on May 26 against the Blue Jays and lasted 1.1 innings in that start. A.J. Griffin is only 29-years-old but it seems like he’s over 35 because he’s a broken day starter that always winds up on the DL. Griffin needed a Rust-Oleum break for May shoulder stiffness, otherwise pitched creakily in the rotation all of last season in 23 starts and in his eight starts this year. Recent repairs (2104 TJS, 2015 shoulder) and poor results kept his run times short (5 IP/start). His 2nd half struggles last year and his first eight starts this year (5.71 xERA, line-drive % jump, 38% hard-hit balls) warn that his recovery is still in progress. Starters coming off long layoffs have been absolutely torched this season in their first game back (even Madison Bumgarner) and this broken down starter figures to be no different. The Twinkies are tough at home while the Rangers are meek on the road.
Detroit +123 over BALTIMORE
The Orioles are coming off a three-game sweep over the then hottest team in baseball, the K.C. Royals. You’ll now pay a premium to back the O’s, at least in the first game of this series but Chris Tillman is pure fade material so we’re going to stick with the plan here.
Tillman’s first-pitch strike rate is the worst in the majors at 47%. His first-pitch strike rate over his last 10 starts is a sickening 41%. His batted ball profile of 36% grounders, 28% line drives and 36% fly-balls is dreadful. Tillman has one victory in 14 starts this season and his ERA/xERA split is also one of the worst in the game. This one is really a no-brainer because Chris Tillman can’t be recommended as a dog, let alone a favorite. His peripherals across the board are vile.
Matt Boyd’s true value is hidden beneath is 5.30 ERA. The beautiful thing about that is the market sees his surface ERA but we go under the hood to find true value and regular readers of this section know that Boyd has been on our radar. Matt Boyd’s xERA since returning on July 18 is 3.78. Over that span, he has a 64% first-pitch strike rate, an elite 15% swing and miss rate and an elite line-drive rate of 16%. Batters’ are not squaring up on Boyd with any regularity. In his last start, Boyd went seven full and pitched to an ERA/xERA split of 3.68/2.74. The Tigers are 3-0 in his starts since his return. Boyd’s huge skills growth across the board at the end of last year and now in the stretch run this year is supported by his underlying numbers. He’s at the right age for another step up and is 100% the better option here. Let’s hope it works out the way it’s supposed to.
N.Y. Mets -1½ +240 over COLORADO
We’re not going to go into a lot of details here regarding the pitchers because it matters not when playing at Coors Field. We are going to commit to playing the underdog all season long at Coors Field on the ALTERNATIVE run line. What that means is that we are playing the remainder of Colorado’s home games this season and we’ll be playing the underdog in each game, whether it’s the Rocks or the opposition and we’ll be playing it regardless of who’s pitching. We’re suggesting that this wager has nothing but big profits in store. With totals being in the 10 to 12½ range daily at this venue, far more games are decided by two runs or more than one run and the underdog wins just as much as the favorite. The pitching matchups rarely matter because even the best get rocked at this park. We’ll keep a running record on this angle all season long.
Year to date:
18-28 + 22.55 units
Cincinnati +145 over PITTSBURGH
Chad Kuhl was a lightly regarded prospect entering 2016 but a strong 84 innings showing at Triple-A (2.37 ERA) earned him a late-June promotion to Pittsburgh, where he posted a respectable 4.20 ERA in 71 IP. This year, Kuhl’s ERA is 4.84, his xERA is 4.68 but his xERA over his last three starts is 6.28. Kuhl’s plight is not an unusual one in that his effectiveness is diminishing the second and third time that teams’ see him. Kuhl has decent stuff but he desperately needs to find an answer vs. lefties and he needs to have better control. Kuhl’s K% has grown from 14% to 21% vs. lefties but a rise in BB% has left him with the same subpar command he sported vs. LHB in 2016. His struggles against left-handed hitters are a serious concern that must be addressed. His BB/K split of 44/84 in 102 frames reveals a weak ratio. His 1.48 WHIP over his past 10 starts reveals too much traffic on the bases. The price on Kuhl and the Pirates today reveals too much risk and not enough reward.
Looking at Sal Romano’s career minor league numbers will show that of the 131 games he’s pitched in, he’s started 130 of them. Keep your eye on Sal Romano because his value is down right now but that could change quickly. The 6’4”, 270-pound behemoth relies on a brutal plus fastball that can touch 100 mph in short stints. Backing that up is an above-average slider in the high-80s that features late break, but he needs to work on softening the pitch to improve his command of it. Romano has a high-energy, bulldog demeanor on the mound, likes to challenge hitters, and isn’t afraid to come inside against power bats. He’s got over 600 minor league innings to his names so now is his time to prove he belongs. Romano has whiffed 21 batters over his last 19 innings since his second call-up of the season roughly three weeks ago. He has an elite 54% groundball rate and an exceptional 13% line-drive rate. His only flaw is his control (17 BB in 23 innings) but if he’s throwing strikes, he becomes as tough as shoe leather. So, we have risk and reward with both pitchers but the Reds have excelled in this park, Romano has more upside than Kuhl and Cinci is taking back a tag.
Pass CFL & NFL
Brandon Lee
Yankees vs. Indians
Play: Indians -150
I'll take my chances with Cleveland at home on Thursday. The Indians are going to come out highly motivated after losing 3 straight. It's been a very profitable spot to back Cleveland, as they are 12-1 after 3 or more loss the last 2 seasons. It certainly helps that the Indians will have their ace and arguably the hottest pitcher in baseball on the mound in Corey Kluber. Since returning from the DL he's got a 1.86 ERA in 11 starts while racking up a ridiculous 120 strikeouts in 77.3 innings of work. Yankees send out their new addition in Sonny Gray, but he's just 1-3 with a 4.04 ERA and 1.318 WHIP in 6 road starts.
Brian Hay
Oakland at San Francisco
Play: Oakland +114
The Oakland A’s have won four of their last five games overall. The A's will use Kendall Graveman today who is making his first start since May 19th. Graveman is 2-2 with a 3.83 ERA and 32 strikeouts this season. In his career, Graveman is 0-1 with an 11.37 ERA and 5 strikeouts against San Francisco. The San Francisco Giants are on a downward spiral having lost five of their last six games. The Giants will trott Ty Blach out to the mound tonight. Blach is 6-7 with a 4.38 ERA and 56 strikeouts this season. This will be Blach’s first career start against Oakland, however Blach owns a career 1-1 interleague record with a 5.12 ERA and 9 strikeouts over three starts. Oakland is 8-3 in Graveman’s last 11 starts against a team with a losing record. San Francisco is 1-5 in Blach’s last 6 home starts against a team with a losing record and 5-17 in their last 22 home games against a team with a losing record. Oakland is 5-2 in the last 7 meetings between these two teams.
Jimmy Boyd
Tigers vs. Orioles
Play:Orioles -134
I've cashed in on Baltimore each of the last two days and will stay on them in Thursday's home opener against the Tigers. The Orioles will send out Chris Tillman, who is coming off a horrible outing at Texas, but he had pitched well in his previous three outings, all of which came at home. The stat that really stands out with Tillman, is his 7-0 record and 2.54 ERA and 1.021 WHIP over 10 career starts against Detroit.
The Tigers don't exactly have a top notch starter on the mound either. Detroit gives the rock to Matt Boyd, who has an ugly 5.30 ERA and 1.621 WHIP over 14 starts in 2017 and a 5.54 ERA and 1.821 WHIP in 8 road starts. Boyd's first and only start against the Orioles came this season and it wasn't pretty, as he gave up 7 runs on 8 hits and 2 walks in a mere 2 1/3 innings.
We also have a strong system backing the Orioles here. Teams who have won 5 or more straight games in a matchup of two teams that own a win percentage of 46% to 49% are 44-15 (75%) against the money line since 1997.
Wunderdog
Detroit vs. Baltimore
Pick: Baltimore -128
This is the fourth straight road game for a Detroit team that is #27 in baseball in pitching ERA. The Tigers are 21-32 on the road, including 8-20 away against a right-handed starter. Tigers lefty Matthew Boyd (5.30 ERA) has allowed three or more runs in 10 straight starts, and batters are hitting .308 off him for the season. He has a 5.54 ERA on the road where batters are hitting .327 while walking 19 in 39 road innings. He faces a hot Baltimore team that has won five in a row and is 32-21 at home. Baltimore has outscored opponents 29-9 during this five-game win streak. Orioles starter Chris Tillman has a 6-0 record with a 2.45 ERA in nine career games against the Tigers. The Orioles are 57-23 at home against a team with a losing record, including 21-6 when Tillman starts.