Kevin Rogers
Seattle at Kansas City
Play: Seattle +125
The Mariners offense came up short last night at Texas by scoring a run in the first inning but never heard from again in a 5-1 defeat to the Rangers. Seattle hopes to turn things around with a trip to Kansas City to face a Royals' squad that was swept by the Orioles, while scoring only three runs. Yovani Gallardo is coming off a terrific outing against the Mets in his last start by allowing 1 ER in 5.1 innings of work, while tossing at least five innings in each of his last five starts for Seattle. Trevor Cahill didn't impress in his Kansas City debut by giving up 5 ER and eight hits in four innings of a 9-8 loss at Boston his last time out. In three of Cahill's last four starts (dating back to San Diego), he has been tagged for at least 4 ER, while not lasting past the fourth inning in his last two appearances. Also, Seattle is looking to
Stephen Nover
Phillies vs. Angels
Play: Phillies
Jerad Eickhoff is way below the radar. He started the season by losing his first seven decisions. Then he went on the DL with a back injury. But in his last five starts, he's 2-0 with a 2.79 ERA.
This is the Phillies' third game on the West Coast so they should be adjusted to the time change by now. The Phillies had won five in a row before venturing on their current trip.
Philadelphia also is facing Parker Bridwell, who is due for serious regression. Bridwell is 5-1 with a 2.83 ERA in nine appearances, including eight starts. I don't think he's nearly as good as those numbers.
Bruce Marshall
Dodgers at Braves
Pick: Braves
For all of their wild success over the past two months, and 40 wins in 47 games, the Dodgers are only 3-3 vs. the Braves in that stretch, and after a succession of close wins, the Dodgers' 9-game win streak was snapped at SunTrust Park last night. Will give Atlanta another shot tonight, especially with Dodger starter Alex Wood wobbling noticeably in his last two starts, allowing 11 runs and 17 hits over 11 1/3 IP, and hammered in a loss to the Braves on July 21. Meanwhile, after a bumpy patch, Braves rookie lefty Sean Newcomb has stabilized and pitched effectively in his last two outings, including a quality start at Chavez Ravine on July 23.
Power Sports
New York vs. Cleveland
Pick: Cleveland -155
This will be Sonny Gray's debut wearing Pinstripes and it's a tough spot, opposing former Cy Young winner Corey Kluber. As excited as the Yanks might be about their latest acquisition, there's no debate as to whom the better starting pitcher in this Thursday night matchup is. Kluber has a very misleading team start record (10-7) considering he has an ERA of 2.90 and a WHIP of 0.994.
For the 1st time this year, New York is coming off a shutout loss. They were beaten 2-0 by Detroit yday and it was their third loss in four games (had won six straight previously). While their run differential (+116) is second in the AL, only trailing Houston, Cleveland is not far behind at +95. Led by Kluber, the Indians have allowed the fewest number of runs in the entire American League. That doesn't bode well here for a Yankees lineup that has scored just three runs so far here in August.
A "hidden" edge for Cleveland here is that they had yday off due to a rainout. They probably needed the off-day, given the three straight losses that proceeded it. But that three-game slide doesn't bother me in the least as the Tribe had won nine straight times before it and the last two losses came at Fenway Park (tough place to play). Kluber has allowed 0 or 1 ER in six of his last eight starts, so coming off one where he allowed FOUR (Indians still won), I'd expect him to be extra sharp tonight. Kluber still had 12 K's his last time out and has a KW ratio of 38-3 his L3 starts. Gray allowed four runs as well his last time out (all unearned). I wonder how he'll perform his first time wearing a new uniform w/ so much time having elapsed between starts (hasn't pitched in over a week). Also, Gray's worst start of the year came here in Cleveland as he allowed seven runs in 4 2/3 innings back on May 30th.
Will Rogers
Dodgers at Braves
Pick: Over 8.5
The set-up: Los Angeles Dodgers lost 5-3 at San Diego on July 2 but have gone 20-3 since. Amazingly, all three losses have come at the hands of the 49-57 Atlanta Braves. The Dodgers lost back-to-back home games to the Braves on July 20 and 21, then lost last night in Atlanta. Tyler Flowers’ eighth-inning pinch-hit HR powered Atlanta to a 5-3 victory Wednesday, snapping the Dodgers’ major-league record streak of 53 consecutive games won when leading at any point. The victory snapped Atlanta's six-game losing streak and was just the Braves' second win in 11 games since beating LA in those back-to-back games at Dodger Stadium July 20-21. The rubber match of this three-game series goes Thursday.
The pitching matchup: Alex Wood (12-1 & 2.38 ERA) continues his "career season" when he takes the mound for LA and rookie Sean Newcomb (1-5 & 4.50 ERA) gets the nod for Atlanta. The Braves handed Wood his first loss of the season on July 21 (allowed nine runs, seven earned) but he was able to get the win last Friday over the Giants, despite allowing four runs on eight hits in seven innings. Wood made his major-league debut with the Braves in 2013, going 21-20 in 86 games with Atlanta before being traded to the Dodgers in 2015. In two career starts against the Braves, Wood is 0-2 with an ugly 10.38 ERA. Newcomb has pitched well in his past two starts after struggling in the first part of July, getting no-decisions against the Dodgers and Philadelphia while allowing only four ERs over 11 innings (3.27 ERA). Newcomb will be making his 10th major-league start and has surrendered three ERs or lees in six of his previous nine.
The pick: Wood was tagged for a career-high nine runs (seven earned) in 4 2/3 innings against Atlanta in that 12-3 defeat back on July 21, which remains his only setback of the season. Excluding that outing, Wood has thrown 98 1/3 innings, with 110 strikeouts, 27 walks and a 0.99 WHIP. The opposition is batting .196 against Wood. However, he was hardly "extra sharp" in his follow up start from that loss to Atlanta, allowing four runs on eight hits in seven innings. Is hisseason starting to prove the adage, "regression to the mean?" As for Newcomb, his road ERA (3.43) is almost two full runs higher than his home ERA (5.33).
3G-SPORTS
Texas vs. Minnesota
Play: Texas +118
It's hard to imagine a brilliant renaissance at 35 years old, but Shin-Soo Choo provides some experience and smart value with his eyes and innate on-base ability. And as long as Texas's Bibens-Dirkx pitches even half as good as he's capable of - it's possible, this gets ugly fast. With the strong swinging benefits of Nomar Mazara - Texas should be ready to roll. Minnesota should have plenty of opportunity to drown their lousy batting numbers, and don't expect a return to good levels, as their plate patience has struggled badly since early July. Pitchers are obviously figuring Miguel Sano out - and will keep sitting him down even more frequently, than they have been. Bibens-Dirkx will do just that vs the 24 year old batter. Minnesota does not have one of the better lineups in baseball, with just no guys at a .300 avg. They know that, and on a good day, truthfully, it is decent - and on a bad day it is somewhere around awful and terrible.
JOHN MARTIN
White Sox vs. Red Sox
Play: White Sox +251
The Chicago White Sox are worth a shot today as massive road underdogs to the Boston Red Sox. The reason being is that they actually have the advantage on the mound today despite being +251 dogs. Miguel Gonzalez is 1-1 with a 2.33 ERA in his last three starts. Gonzalez is surprisingly 6-1 with a 3.15 ERA in 11 previous starts against the Red Sox. Rick Porcello has struggled at home this year with a 5.01 ERA across 12 starts at Fenway. Porcello has a 4.26 ERA in 22 previous starts against the White Sox. The Red Sox are 0-4 in Porcello's last four starts. The White Sox are 6-2 in their last eight meetings in Boston.
DAVE PRICE
Phillies vs. Angels
Play: Angels -1½
The Los Angeles Angels still have a shot to chase down a wild card spot. They are playing hungry baseball of late in going 4-1 in their last 5 games overall. Their only loss was when they blew a 10-4 lead in a 10-11 loss to the Blue Jays. They have outscored the Phillies 14-1 in taking the first two games of this series. Expect another blowout win in their favor tonight. Parker Bridwell is an underrated starter who is 5-1 with a 3.04 ERA in 8 starts this year, including 2-0 with a 2.18 ERA in his last 3 starts. Jerad Eickhoff is 2-7 with a 4.56 ERA in 18 starts this year, and 0-5 with a 5.17 ERA in 8 road starts. The Phillies are 0-8 in Eickhoff's 8 road starts this season. Philly is 1-11 off a loss by 6 runs or more this season. The Phillies are 17-47 in their last 64 road games. The Angels are 11-0 in the last 11 meetings.
JESSE SCHULE
White Sox vs. Red Sox
Play: Red Sox -1½
The Red Sox outscored Cleveland 18-12 in two games at Fenway before Game 3 of the series was postponed due to weather. Rick Porcello will toe the slab for Boston in Game 1 of this home series versus the Chisox, and he's had a terrible season so far. The 2016 Cy Young winner has lost four straight, but he's pitched well enough to win in all of those games. He allowed four runs on six hits, striking out five in seven innings in a home loss to Kansas City his last time out. Chicago will hand the ball to Miguel Gonzalez, who has just one win in his last six starts. The 33 year old allowed four runs on six hits and three walks in six innings in a home loss to Cleveland his last time out. He's 2-6 with a 5.30 ERA in nine starts on the road in 2017. The White Sox has lost 21 of their last 29 road games, and they've lost six of their last seven when Gonzalez starts on the road.
JACK JONES
Tigers vs. Orioles
Play:Orioles -130
The Baltimore Orioles continue to show some fight. They have gotten healthy throughout their lineup and in their bullpen and will be a good bet moving forward. They are 5-0 in their last five games overall while outscoring the opposition 29-9 in the process.
While Chris Tillman hasn't been great in 2017, he does have a nice history against the Detroit Tigers. Indeed, Tillman is 7-0 with a 2.54 ERA and 1.021 WHIP in 10 career starts against the Tigers. This is a Detroit team in a massive letdown spot after winning four of their last five against the Yankees and Astros.
Matt Boyd is arguably the worst starter in Detroit's rotation. The left-hander has gone 5-5 with a 5.30 ERA and 1.621 WHIP in 14 starts this season, including 3-3 with a 5.54 ERA and 1.821 WHIP in eight road starts. Boyd gave up 7 earned runs in 2 1/3 innings in an 11-13 loss to the Orioles in his only career start against them, which was on May 16th earlier this season.
The Tigers are 8-20 in their last 28 road games vs. a right-handed starter. The Orioles are 6-0 in their last six home games vs. a team with a losing road record. Baltimore is 6-0 in its last six vs. a left-handed starter. The Orioles are 57-23 in their last 80 home games vs. a team with a losing record. Baltimore is 21-6 in Tillman's last 27 home starts vs. a team with a losing record. The Orioles are 8-0 in Tillman's last eight starts vs. Detroit.
ANDREW GOLD
New York at Colorado
Play: Colorado -1½
Really like the Rockies here on the RL today against the Mets. They are sending out German Marquez who comes into this game in great form with a 3.05 ERA his last three starts. He has struck out 10, 9, and 9 his last three which is very impressive. Montero is just 1-4 on the year with a 5.70 ERA.
DOUG UPSTONE
Yankees vs. Indians
Play: Indians -155
In tonight's big AL encounter, I like Cleveland with Kluber on the mound for the Indians and AL underdogs with a money line of +100 or higher like the Yankees scoring 5.1 or more runs a game, against a starting pitcher with ERA of 3.50 or lower, with a bullpen that blows 38% or more of their save opportunities, are 9-35 since 2013.
Jeff Benton
Thursday freebie is the Over in the Dodgers-Braves game.
The teams have played both this week Under the total, as the Dodgers have now played 4 straight Unders, while the Braves have been Under the total in 4 of their last 5.
Tonight I see that trend reversing, as Alex Wood starts for the second time this season against the team he started with. In Wood's first go-round against his former team, Atlanta pounded him 9 hits and 7 runs in just under 5 innings of work in a 12-3 Atlanta win.
I believe the Braves have his number and will score their fair share of runs again tonight.
Sean Newcomb did pitch well in his first start against L.A. a couple of starts ago, allowing 3 runs over 6 innings in a no-decision, but his last start at Sun Trust Park saw 5 runs score in just over 5 innings, and his start before that at home saw 7 runs score in just over 3 innings of work!
Not sure Newcomb will be able to keep the ball in the park tonight at home, so let's play the Dodgers and Braves to land Over the total.
3* L.A. DODGERS-ATLANTA OVER
Jack Brayman
My free play for tonight is on the Detroit Tigers on the road at the Baltimore Orioles, and I want you listing both pitchers.
I know Baltimore has won five straight, but this is a pitching mismatch, with Matthew Boyd bringing better credentials than Chris Tillman.
Boyd is in after delivering a trio of wins and three quality starts in as many outings since rejoining the Tigers' rotation. His last time out he lasted 7.1 innings against a very good hitting Astros team. I know he has never pitched at Camden Yards, but as well as he's pitched lately, it won't be a factor.
Meanwhile, Tillman is in after tossing one of his worst outings of the year, getting pelted for eight runs on nine hits in 4.1 innings against the Texas Rangers. Yes, he has done well against the Tigers with a 2.45 ERA in nine career starts, but I don't trust his arm right now.
Free play on Detroit.
1* ORIOLES
Brad Wilton
Thursday night comp play is the Yankees and the Indians to open with a low-scoring, pitcher's duel.
Sonny Gray makes his debut for the Yanks, and he has been spot-on of late. His last 6 starts for the A's were all quality starts, as Gray went 4-2 with a 1.37 ERA. Included is 6 scoreless inning against the Indians in a win on July 14th.
Corey Kluber will go for the home team, and in 5 career starts against the Yankees, he has an ERA of just 1.91.
New York played their last pair against Detroit Under the total, including getting blanked yesterday, and they are 8-2 Under the total in their last 10 away from the Bronx.
Gray and Kluber put on a show.
Yankees-Indians Under.
4* N.Y. YANKEES-CLEVELAND UNDER