Free Picks for Thursday, December 15th, 2016 from some of the nations best and worst handicappers.
MARC LAWRENCE
Rams vs. Seahawks
Play: Under 38½
Edges - Rams: 8-20 UNDER last twenty-eight games overall. Seahawks: 11-22 UNDER last thirty-three games in this series, including 6-12 UNDER here. With the Rams having played UNDER in each of their last 7 straight division games, we recommend a 1* play on the UNDER in this game.
Scott Spreitzer
Packers vs. Bears
Play: Bears +6
The dog has certainly been the way to go, covering 16 of the last 21 Bears' games. We had the Packers last week, a case where we felt they were undervalued, while the Seahawks were over-hyped off their win over the Carolina Panthers. A concern here is Aaron Rodgers, who was hobbling in the win over Seattle. Rodgers' calf isn't 100% healthy and we feel it'll effect his ability to escape trouble. The Chicago pass defense is a stingy one and they're 7th best in the league in total yards allowed per game. Meanwhile, on offense, Matt Barkley has shown improvement of late and Jordan Howard has played extremely well. Chicago has covered four straight, overall, and three in a row at Soldier Field. We feel they'll hang the number in the matchup with the Packers.
Ben Burns
Blackhawks vs. Islanders
Play: Over 5
The Hawks check in on an "under" streak. However, a game against the Islanders should provide an opportunity for a more "wide open" affair. The Isles have allowed 10 goals their past two games alone. For the season, their home games are averaging 5.8 goals. Their last five games have had scores of 4-3, 4-2, 3-2, 6-2 and 4-2, an average of 6.4 combined goals.
Fourteen of the Isles' 18 home games have had O/U lines of 5.5. Of the four which had an O/U line of five, as this one does, three finished above the total. While there's always a reasonable shot at a 'push,' when playing a game with an O/U line of five, I feel this one has a better shot at producing more than five than it does of finishing with less than five. Consider the Over.
Bob Harvey
Knicks vs. Warriors
Play: Under 224
Golden State took the two meetings last season by a total of 57 points.
The Warriors (22-4, 11-14 ATS)just finished up a brutal stretch of schedule that saw them play five road games in seven nights and managed to go 4-1 in that span after pulling off a 113-109 win in New Orleans on Tuesday. Stephen Curry scored 30 points and Kevin Durant added 27.
The Knicks (14-11, 15-10 ATS)are taking a big step up in competition after suffering a 113-111 overtime loss at Phoenix on Tuesday in which Carmelo Anthony went 3-of-15 from the floor. Derek Rose, who scored 25 points in a win over the Lakers on Sunday, was 0 for 6 and managed just two points vs. the Suns. He suffered a back injury in the game and is listed as doubtful for tonight’s contest.
New York is 1-4 ATS in the last five series meetings. The Knicks are 5-1 ATS in their last six overall and 5-1 ATS in the last six against the Western Conference.
Golden State is 0-4 ATS in its last four overall.
The UNDER is 4-1 in the last five meetings and is 4-1 to the low side in the past five meetings in Oakland. The UNDER is 5-0 in the Warriors last five overall.
Jim Feist
Central Florida at George Washington
Pick: Under
George Washington is playing strong defense, winning 4 of 5 allowing 67 or less in the last four games (4-1 run under the total). The Under is 5-0 when the Colonials face the American Athletic Conference. Central Florida is also strong on defense, 16-5 under the total on the road, as well as 7-1 under when they face the Atlantic 10.
Strike Point Sports
New Orleans (-2.5) over Indiana
This is a tough spot for the Pacers. They come in to this game on a back-to-back, and playing in Miami the night before is never something good. The city vibe is tough to deal with and always takes a little out of teams. New Orleans, meanwhile, had a day off after the Golden State game, and they will want to take care of business before heading out on the road for three straight games. The Pelicans match up with the Pacers well, and the home cooking will be the difference. Indiana won't get up for this game as it is sandwiched between two Eastern Conference opponents. Grab the Pelicans at home in this one as they get the job done.
Larry Ness
Chicago vs. Milwaukee
Pick: Milwaukee
The Milwaukee Bucks enter a unique part of their schedule in which they kick off a stretch of three straight home-and-home sets Thursday when they host the Chicago Bulls at the Bradley Center. The Bucks face the Bulls on back-to-back nights and do the same next Tuesday and Wednesday against the Cleveland Cavaliers, then wrap things up wrap up with games against the Washington Wizards to bookend the Christmas holiday. The 11-12 Bucks welcome the Bulls to Milwaukee and Chicago enters at 13-11, after losing four of its last six games
The Bulls will be looking to bounce back after blowing a 21-point lead and falling 99-94 to Minnesota on Tuesday night at the United Center. Jimmy Butler (25.7-6.8-4.2) finished with 27 points and nine rebounds in the contest while Dwyane Wade (19.9-4.2-3.6) dished out eight assists but was ejected down the stretch for arguing with the officials. Butler and Wade both played collegiately in Milwaukee for Marquette. PG Rajon Rondo (8.2-6.6-7.0) sat out the Minnesota game with an ankle injury and will be a game-time decision Thursday at Milwaukee.
The Milwaukee Bucks had been on a little run with wins in five of six but enter this contest having dropped three straight. Milwaukee has seen a significant drop in its team defense during its three-games skid, as its allowing 115.3 PPG after a 122-100 loss in Toronto on Monday in which the Raptors shot 50.6 percent from the floor. Giannis Antetokounmpo (22.3-8.9-5.9) and Jabari Parker (19.4-5.6) have been excellent but no other player scores in double digits.
The Bulls are making this brief stop on the road before coming home for three in a row but I’d much prefer the Bucks here, who have posted home victories since Nov 12 over Memphis (which still had Conley), Orlando, Cleveland (by 17 points!), Brooklyn and Portland, while losing by three points to Golden State, by one point to San Antonio, by four points to Atlanta and by six points to Toronto. Bucks are the bet.
Brandon Lee
Spurs -7
I fully expect San Antonio to rest at least a couple of their starters here, but I'm not the least bit concerned with them winning here by double-digits. The Spurs have a deep roster and are the best coached team in the NBA and have made a living of beating up on teams when they rest their stars. Not to mention they have been an absolute force on the road this season, going 13-1 SU and 9-4-1 ATS. Let's also not overlook the fact that Phoenix could be without a couple key players, as Len and Knight are both listed as questionable. The Suns are coming off a 113-111 win over the Knicks, but that was a bad spot for New York and they haven't won back-to-back games since the beginning of November (only time all season). I'll take my chances they not only lose here but lose big.
Jack Jones
Georgia Southern -1.5
I think we are getting a discount here with Georgia Southern as only 1.5-point road favorites over Florida International. This is a Georgia Southern team that returned all five starters from last year and is vastly improved with a 5-5 start this season.
That has shown up in a couple losses this season. Georgia Southern only lost 79-81 at NC State as 14-point dogs and 67-75 at Akron as 9-point dogs. If they can play with both those teams on the road, they can certainly beat Florida International.
Florida International is just 3-7 on the season. The three wins have come against Florida Memorial, Ave Maria and Binghamton. I have to be honest, I've never even heard of two of those schools. But the key here is a common opponent that these teams have.
Both teams have played Florida Gulf Coast. Georgia Southern has played them twice. They lost to FGC 82-85 at home, but beat FGC 72-59 on the road in the rematch. Florida International lost to FGC 63-82 on the road in their last game. It's clear that Georgia Southern is the better squad here.
Georgia Southern is 33-16 ATS in its last 49 road games when playing against a bad team with a winning percentage between 20% and 40% on the season. The Eagles are 15-5 ATS in their last 20 games overall. The Golden Panthers are 3-13 ATS in their last 16 home games following three or more consecutive road games.
Jimmy Boyd
George Washington -3
I like the value here with the Colonials laying a small number at home against the Knights. UCF comes into this one off a 49-58 loss at home to Penn as a 10-point favorite and you can pinpoint that poor performance on the absence of sophomore point guard B.J. Taylor, who leads the team in scoring and is their main distributor (5.0 apg). To struggle like they did at home without Taylor, it's unlikely they are going to be in any better shape on the road against George Washington.
The Colonials are coming into this one playing with a ton of confidence, as they followed up a 66-63 upset win over Temple on the road (9-point dog) with a 79-62 blowout win at home over Howard. George Washington has won 5 of 6 at home this season and the Knights are just 2-5 ATS in their last 7 road games against a team with a winning road record.
Larry Wallace
Coastal Carolina vs. Auburn
Play: Auburn -11
Auburn is shooting 42.5% from the field and 32% from the arc. The Tigers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 against the Sun Belt Conference. Also, Auburn is 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games at home and being the favorite. Lastly, the Tigers are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games on Thursdays.
David Banks
Rams @ Seahawks
Pick: Rams+16
Quick, the Rams need a tourniquet. After starting the season 3-1, Los Angeles has dropped eight of its last nine games including last week’s blowout loss to Atlanta. Yes, they have a rookie quarterback, but they have one of the better young running backs in the NFL and a defense that used to rival some of the best units in the game. Now, the Rams get to travel to Seattle, one of the hardest places in the league to win a game.
Surprisingly, the Rams have beaten Seattle the past three times that the NFC West Division rivals have played. Los Angeles beat Seattle, 9-3, in the second week of this season holding the Seahawks to just a field goal. A lot of things have changed since then. The Seahawks were having trouble scoring points then and the Rams were winning.
Seattle has lost two of its last three games including a 38-10 loss in Green Bay last Sunday. Seahawks QB Russell Wilson had one of the worst games of his career throwing five interceptions in the most lopsided loss of his young career. Seattle turned the ball over a total of six times. If the Rams somehow force those kinds of turnover numbers, they may have a chance. The Los Angeles offense is dead last in the NFL in scoring averaging a measly 15 points per game.
Wunderdog
Central Florida @ Geo Washington
Pick: Central Florida +3
Johnny Dawkins is doing an excellent job in his first season with Central Florida. That rings particularly true on the defensive side, as the Knights are holding opponents to just a .311 field goal percentage after being one of the worst defensive teams in the country over the last couple years. The Knights are 7-2, including a road win at Massachusetts and are led by 7-6, 300 pound center Tacko Fall, who averages 13.8 points and 13.1 rebounds per contest. Fall and Matt Williams scored 17 points apiece as the Knights fell to Penn on Monday. George Washington is 7-4 stright-up, but only 2-6 ATS while shooting just 40.3 percent from the field. The Colonials come off a win over Howard in an unlined game as Jaren Sina scored 20 points and Tyler Cavanaugh added 13 points and 13 boards. UCF has covered four of its last five as an underdog and George Washington is 0-6 ATS over its last six home games and 0-4 ATS after a win.
Ian Cameron
NY Rangers at Dallas
Play: Dallas +105
My clients and I cashed a ticket with the Dallas Stars in their 6-2 home win against the Anaheim Ducks on Tuesday night. This is a team that has really put an emphasis on their current homestand which continues tonight against the New York Rangers. Prior to a home win over Nashville last Thursday, head coach Lindy Ruff called out his top players for not managing the puck well enough and the team responded with one of their best games of the season. Ruff called this next homestand, which starts tonight, their biggest of the season. "This will be the season for us, I really feel. For me, I think all of the season is going to land on this homestand...hopefully our players see that too." Dallas responded with as strong an effort as they’ve had all season in Tuesday’s blowout win against Anaheim. Stringing wins together has been a problem for Dallas but I believe they are sitting on an A-level effort tonight. The Rangers have been battling a lot of injuries of late although they expect to have Rick Nash back on the ice tonight. New York ran with the hot hand of Antti Raanta in net for the last four games but after suffering his first loss during that recent stretch against Chicago, the Rangers are going back to their #1 goalie Henrik Lundqvist who hasn’t played since December 6. With nine days off between starts he may not be razor sharp. Dallas captain Jamie Benn: “We all realize where we are in the standings and how we've been playing. We see this homestand as a big one for us, it could be make or break. We want to make something out of it.” Good spot and good price to fire with the short home underdog.