Eric Schroeder
I'm on a 7-4 run with complimentary releases, and look to improve with a free Pro Basketball winner for tonight.
Quick glance at this complimentary winner, as I love the Auburn Tigers tonight against Coastal Carolina, a team that will be outmatched.
The Tigers will be out to avenge an embarrassing 72-71 loss to Boston College in their first-ever trip to Madison Square Garden. It's not a game they expected to drop, and tonight they're going to take out all frustration on Coastal Carolina.
Look for Auburn forward Danjel Purifoy to lead the way, as he's had at least 14 points in six of his first eight games and leads the team in scoring, assists, free throw percentage and 3-point field goals this season.
Lay the chalk in this one.
3* AUBURN
Brett Atkins
Thursday comp play will be to play against Indiana after last night's loss in Miami.
Believe me, this is not a FU play against the Pacers, but after watching them go tooth-and-nail last night in Miami in a game they wound up losing by 6-points, I think it will be hard for Indy to regroup tonight against the rested Pelicans.
New Orleans came close on Tuesday to besting Golden State, and after the no-foul call to end the game on Anthony Davis, I expect the Pels to be itching to get back after it tonight against the unrested Pacers.
This series has been decidedly one-sided, as Indiana has won each of the last 10 series meetings, and have covered in 8 of their 10 wins. Going to look for that long series streak to come to a halt tonight, as New Orleans is up for the cause in this spot.
Play the Pels.
1* NEW ORLEANS
Chris Jordan
My free winner for tonight is on the Denver Nuggets against the Portland Trail Blazers in Northwest Division action.
Unfortunately for both teams, it's been an ugly time recently, and both are trying to reverse their current fortunes. The Blazers (13-14) arrive in the Mile High City after a big win against Oklahoma City on Tuesday, ending a four-game losing streak. Denver (9-16) steps to the wood after one of its worst outings of the season, in a blowout loss in Dallas on Monday.
But due to Portland's tiresome schedule, I think the Blazers could be winded in this one, and will come in flat after limiting Thunder superstar Russell Westbrook in check in the 114-95 victory Tuesday.
Tonight marks the Blazers' sixth road game in seven outings, spanning 11 days. Since Dec. 5, they've been to Chicago, Milwaukee, Memphis, Indiana, Los Angeles, back home for Russ and the Thunder and now they're in Denver. Saturday night they'll be in Oakland, and I think they could very well be thinking ahead to the Golden State Warriors.
I know the Nuggets have lost eight of their last 11, but they're also back home after a tiring six-game road trip that saw them visit Salt Lake City, Philly, Brooklyn, Washington D.C., Orlando and Dallas.
Denver is in quintuple-revenge here, as it is looking to avoid a sixth straight loss against Portland, which has failed to cover eight of its last 11 games with a suitcase in hand.
Play the Nuggets tonight, as we take a shot with the home team in this near pick'em game.
2* NUGGETS
Brad Wilton
Comp play release for tonight is the Warriors back at home to whip up on the Knicks.
Golden State is back after a 5 game road swing in 7 nights, and while they may still be a little groggy, being back in front of the energized Oracle Arena crowd should get the Dubs blowout juices flowing.
The Knicks are now playing their third road game in the last 5 nights, and they are playing off a loss at Phoenix.
First meeting of the season between these East/West rivals, and the Knicks have not been able to touch the Warriors of late, as Golden State has won the last 4 meetings (3 covers), and they have won 7 of the last 9 both straight up and against the spread versus the Knickerbockers.
I say go with the Warriors to lower the boom on the Knicks.
Golden State big.
3* GOLDEN STATE
Bob Valentino
My free play is on the two-time defending Western Conference champion Golden State Warriors, over the visiting New York Knicks.
The Olympic reunion is set, as several of the greatest players in the world will converge at Oracle Arena, where the Knicks' Carmelo Anthony and three Warriors face off for the first time since winning the Gold Medal in Rio.
The Warriors - with Kevin Durant, Draymond Green and Klay Thompson - along with Steph Curry, will be too much for New York tonight, as I see the boys from Oakland winning by at least 20. The Knicks are making their fourth stop during a five-game junket, and Anthony has been bleak at best.
The veteran scorer has shot a meager 16-for-53 from the field and is just 3-for-16 on 3s. Granted, the Knicks won two of their three games - at Sacramento and Los Angeles, against the Lakers - before losing Tuesday in overtime, 113-111, at Phoenix.
With Derrick Rose questionable for this game, that doesn't help against Golden State's high-octane offense.
I'll lay the chalk tonight and look for a run-away win to ruin the Team USA reunion.
1* WARRIORS
Teddy Covers
Pacers vs. Pelicans
Play: Pacers +2½
To say that New Orleans has been a lousy favorite this year is something of an understatement. My numbers show the Pelicans with a 1-7 ATS mark as chalk through the first seven weeks of the season. Their only win and cover in this role all year came against the Lakers, with LA in the midst of a 1-9 SU and ATS slide themselves!
But the markets have New Orleans favored again tonight, despite the fact that they’ve won only twice in their last ten games, and only once by more than one point since Thanksgiving. What do the markets like about New Orleans this evening? Well, they’ve got Jrue Holiday back in the lineup, and both Langston Galloway and Tim Frazier are on a little bit of a roll. And the Pelicans hung tough with a tired Warriors team at the tail end of a long road trip in their last game; a ‘buy’ sign for bettors.
But I’m not ready to ‘buy’ New Orleans in any game they need to win by margin in order to cover the pointspread. And Indiana has played better of late as well, although the Pacers are coming off a frustrating loss at Miami, playing on the second night of back-2-backs here. It’s surely worth noting that the Pacers are 10-3 SU off a loss this season, bouncing back well from defeats; a team that hasn’t suffered back-2-back losses since before Thanksgiving.
Paul George, following the loss: “This is a game that we should have won. It's frustrating. ... We played OK. We just didn't finish well.” No panic here, just hunger! Head coach Nate McMillan: “They basically muscled us and broke our offensive execution.” New Orleans, despite the presence of Anthony Davis in the low post, has not been ‘muscling’ many teams in early season play. Wrong team favored!
SPORTS WAGERS
SEATTLE -15½ over L.A. Rams
The deck is truly stacked against the Rams this week. They fired that dope Jeff Fisher two years too late. However, releasing him with a month to go makes little sense. Giving him the axe with four days to prepare makes even less sense. There's a reason the NFL has a special league wide firing day the Monday after the Super Bowl. There's so much preparation that goes on week to week, it often makes no sense to fire a coach in the middle of the season. It also looks really bad for the organization. This is especially true for the Rams since they just signed Fisher to a two-year contract extension at the start of the year. The Rams have had recent success against the Seahawks by winning four of their last five but like it or not, that was with Fisher in charge. Let’s recap: Jeff Fisher was removed after being demolished by the visiting Falcons and being just one game short of the losingest NFL coach of all time. Special Teams coordinator John Fossil takes over as interim head coach. Eric Dickerson had vowed to never watch a Rams game again with Fisher running the team. Todd Gurley described his offense as looking like a "middle school offense". The Rams could have waited until next week for the move so that the first game out was hosting the 49ers but instead now head to Seattle to face a team that just suffered a humiliating loss in Green Bay and that also was beaten by the Rams in Week 2.
We outlined Seattle’s tough spot in Green Bay last week after they whacked the Panthers in prime time the week before. Seattle had business to take care of against Carolina and that is precisely what they did in a 40-7 whitewash. Well, the Seahawks have more business to take care of here. The Seahawks remain a force at home with a perfect 6-0 record. Quarterback Russell Wilson turns from mere mortal to a super hero when he plays at home in prime time. “Hustle” is 8-1 since 2012 in prime time games and this is one that Seattle wants, as they try and lock up a first-round bye. This large number may seem a little shocking considering the Rams' recent success against the Seahawks but this scenario is a unique one. We've heard all week about how the Rams are “good” against the Seahawks but we’re not buying that argument this week. Jeff Fisher is an idiot but at least he's a professional idiot with a decent coaching record against the NFC West. There is no way to handicap the mentality of this Rams team after such a disastrous season and after all that transpired after their loss to Atalanta last week. Now the Rams must get through the final month with a lame duck interim coach. Who's going to lay it on the line for the Rams with nothing to play for? This line opened at -13½ in favor of the Seahawks but that number is long gone. Thus we have to sit it out instead of playing a bad number but frankly, no number may be high enough for the Rams to cover here. With so many intangibles working on a short week, we’ll look for something better on Sunday, as we will not lay inflated points. That doesn't mean the Seahwks won't cover. Recommendation: Seattle -15½ (no bets).
SPORTS WAGERS
Anaheim +111 over BOSTON
OT included. Very quietly, the Ducks are heating up big time with six wins in their last nine games, while only being outshot once over that span. Prior to losing to Dallas in its last game, Anaheim won three in a row over Carolina, San Jose and Ottawa and scored 14 times in the process. They’ve beaten the Sharks twice recently and they also defeated the Habs. The Ducks are truly a contender but this wager is based on fading a situation, as the Bruins figure to be extremely vulnerable.
Boston played their hearts out last night in a 4-3 OT loss in Pittsburgh. Two nights earlier, they worked even harder in a 2-1 OT victory over Montreal. The Bruins have played three successive games since Saturday against their three biggest rivals in Toronto, Montreal and Pittsburgh. This will be their fourth game since Saturday and they just might be running on fumes here, both mentally and physically. Aside from those challenges, Anaheim is the superior team here. Incidentally, there is a good chance that Anton Khodubin gets this start in goal so get your wagers in before that announcement is made. If it’s Rask, we’re still fine with the bet.
DALLAS +100 over N. Y. Rangers
OT included. We absolutely understand the risk with the Stars goaltending situation but if Devan Dubnyk isn’t favored over Pekka Rinne, how the hell can Henrik Lundqvist be favored over Antti Niemi? Speaking of Lundqvist, we may as well talk about the elephant in the room. Queen Henrik was “benched” in favor of Antti Raanta over the past four games because Alain Vigneault knows what we’ve been saying all along, that Lundqvist is getting worse every year and that Raanta gives them the best chance of winning. Benching Lundqvist takes guts because he’s been the face of that franchise for years. A.V. has taken nothing but heat about it despite Raanta being brilliant all year and in all four games too. Well, as soon as Raanta lost a game, AV was quick to announce Henrik as the starter for the next game, which is this one and the announcement came right after the loss to Chicago. AV felt the pressure, especially by the New York media and succumbed to it. Suddenly and for the first time in years, Lundqvist will feel the heat of not being the automatic #1 or choice to start. That is a different pressure than playing in playoffs or big games. In those games, he knew he was going to get the start and had to mentally prepare. This is different and it comes against a team very capable of burying some pucks.
Dallas is not having a good year but they are still as dangerous as they were last season when they finished first in the Western Conference with 109 points. The Stars are still 8-4-2 at home and they’re coming off a confidence building 6-2 victory over the Ducks on Tuesday. There is a very fine line between winning and losing in this league and a lot of it has to do with goaltending and luck. Again, we stress that the Stars are very capable of defeating anyone, just like they did last year with almost the exact same team. Dallas has played the 7th toughest schedule in the league while the Rangers have played the 25th toughest, which also impacts the won/loss columns of each. The Rangers are obviously dangerous because they can put the puck in the net and have been doing so with regularity all season long. However, their defense is still weak, which should allow the Stars to apply constant pressure. An early goal against Lundqvist could easily open up the floodgates too. The standings say the Rangers deserve to be favored here but the Stars are absolutely being shortchanged.
Minnesota +120 over NASHVILLE
OT included. We’ll get right to the point here. Goaltending is the number one deciding factor in NHL games and that alone makes the Wild a great value play here. You may have read or heard that Pekka Rinne has regained the form that made him one of the NHL’s top netminders for years. While his early numbers this year confirm that, they were short-lived and Rinne is back to being the washed up, past his prime stiff that he was a year ago. Rinne has posted save percentages of .885, .882, .778, .893 and .773 in his last five games respectively. The Preds picked up five out of a possible 10 points over that span so Rinne’s shortcomings have been overlooked. Even earlier in the year when he was so called “sharper”, a lot of it was luck driven, as a high percentage of shots hit him right in the pads or stomach. Pekka Rinne still has the worst save percentage in the NHL when facing high quality scoring chances and that to us is the best indicator of who’s real and who’s not.
By contrast, Devan Dubnyk is completely legit. Dubnyk has the leagues’ best save percentage. Only Antti Raanta of the New York Broadway Blue Rangers has a higher save percentage when facing high quality chances. Carey Price is third. Dubnyk’s 1.60 GAA is also tops in the league. Furthermore, Minnesota is coming off one of its worst performances of the year, although the score would suggest otherwise. The Wild defeated the Panthers, 5-1 but unless you watched it, you would not know that they were flat as hell. The Wild were badly out-chanced and spent most of the night in their own end. That is not the Bruce Boudreau way. That’s a good indication that Minnesota was looking forward to this game and beyond or that they were just flat, period. Whatever the case may be, we can assure you that the Wild will bring their A-game here and when you combine that with their current form, confidence and huge edge in goal, you have a very live underdog.
SPORTS WAGERS
UCF +135 over G. WASHINGTON
The Knights opened as a favorite for a reason, yet as a result of public perception, recent results and a top player being out, UCF is now sitting on the other side. Knights’ guard, B.J. Taylor has missed the last two games and is out for this one too. He’s the Knights leading scorer with an average of 16-points per game. UCF also lost at home to Pennsylvania in its last game, where it fell by nine points despite spotting 9½-points to the Quakers.
Previously, the Knights had won five games in a row and eight of nine with only loss coming against a then #1 and undefeated defending champion Villanova, where UCF would come in under the number as a 16-point pup. Since then, the Knights have failed to cover in both their games as a favorite, thus prompting the public to opt out on this outfit on the road against a GWU team that is 7-4 overall but 5-2 at home.
GW’s two home losses came against Florida State and Penn State, the former by 19, 67-48. The Colonials strength of schedule ranks 247th in the country. Their first three home wins occurred against Maryland-Eastern Shore by four lousy points, Sienna by two lousy points and Arkansas Pine Bluff. Subsequently, GW beat South Florida by one point. Three of their five home victories have been by four points or less and their two road victories were both by three points so we could easily be discussing a team that is 2-9 and not 7-4, as four of their victories was by one possession and one other was by two possessions. The highlight of the Colonials current win streak is also their best win this season, when they defeated Temple on the road as a nine-point underdog eight days ago. Though we are long since removed, that result has overshadowed the Colonials’ tumultuous start to the season where they failed to cover in six of their first seven games.
UCF sports a higher field goal percentage and better rebounding numbers than GWU. The Colonials are also favored against a team that is the BEST in the country in opponent field goal percentage and is ranked second nationally in opponent scoring. While some of these numbers are skewed due to UCF’s weak schedule that is ranked 285th in the country, the Knights still rank much higher in these departments than GW, who’s strength of schedule is comparable to this enemy. The Knights lost to Villanova by just 10 but they blew out Mississippi State and also beat a tough UMass squad. If GWU looks to seek shelter from behind the three-point line, they will find no such refuge. UCF is ranked ninth in opponent three-point field-goal percentage. When you look at the UCF defeat against Penn, the Knights had their worst shooting performance of the season to date and they were also adjusting to life without Taylor. Things is, the odds makers are fully aware of Taylor’s absence and it’s factored into the number already, which is the main reason we rarely discuss injuries. The line movement here is an overreaction to Taylor being out, which provides us with this opportunity. GWU has proven nothing so far other than its inability to put away opponents. The dog outright gets this call.
Jimmy Boyd
Rams at Seahawks
Play: Rams +16
The perception here is that the Rams have thrown in the towel on their season. It’s not just the firing of Fisher, but their performance on the field. They have lost 3 straight, none more embarrassing than the 28-point loss last week to Atlanta. While Seattle didn’t look any better on Sunday, the perception is much different. The public is going to look for the Seahawks to bounce back with a big performance at home, where they are 6-0. Especially with this being a prime time game. Oddsmakers have certainly played into these perceptions with this massive line. I’m not saying Los Angeles is going pull off the upset, but the value is clearly with the Rams in this one. This team has proven over the last few seasons that they matchup well with Seattle. You don’t just beat a team 3 straight times by accident. On top of that, I think the firing of Fisher is going to light a fire under the players. Many of which feel responsible for the coach getting canned. While the media ridiculed LA for not firing Fisher sooner, he was loved by his players. I know Jared Goff hasn’t lived up to being the No. 1 overall pick, but this Seattle defense is not the same after losing star safety Earl Thomas. I’m not saying he’s going to light it up, but he doesn’t figure to need to do a lot. Seattle’s offense has had a horrible time getting anything going against this Rams defense. Going all the way back to the start of the 2012 season, the Seahawks have scored 20 or fewer points in 6 of 9 meetings. A big part of that is the talent LA has up front on their defensive line. They have a huge edge in the trenches against a very mediocre at best offensive line of Seattle. It wouldn’t surprise me at all if we saw a very similar type of game to Week 2, when the two teams combined for just 12 points. Simply put, there’s just too much value to pass up on the Rams catching over two touchdowns in a division game. We also have a strong system in play backing a fade of the Seahawks in this spot. Home favorites of 10.5 or more points off an upset loss as a road favorite are just 15-38 (28%) ATS against division opponents since 1983.
Ben Burns
Toronto -205
While its not often we see the Leafs laying this kind of price, I believe that they're heavily favored for good reason. Even off a rare win last time out, the Coyotes remain a poor 4-12 away from the desert, getting outscored by an ugly 3.6 to 2.1 margin. The Leafs, on the other hand, are a respectable 8-6 at home, outscoring teams by a 3.4 to 2.9 margin here. Off back-to-back losses, knowing that they've got tougher games (Pens, Ducks) on deck and also knowing that they'll be facing these same Coyotes (at Phoenix) again in less than a week, I expect the Leafs to go all out tonight and for them to ultimately come away with the two points.