Free Picks for Thursday, December 1st, 2016 from some of the nations best and worst handicappers.
Bryan Leonard
Rams vs. Patriots
Play: Patriots -13
Nobody in the league has been worse in explosive plays over the last month than the Rams, a whopping -9 the past four games. This team just can't put points on the board averaging 12 points per game the last five contests. The Rams have aloso failed to win the turnover battle in 6 of 7 games. When losing the TO battle this season Los Angeles is 0-4 ATS.
New England holds a +35 explosive play advantage over the Rams on the season. With the Pats struggling the past three weeks this team needs to get things right before facing its nemesis Baltimore next Monday night. New England lost the yards per play battle last week against the Jets. In games following a contest where the Pats trailed in that stat this season the team is perfect ATS covering by 10 points per game on average.
Rob Vinciletti
Oral Roberts vs. Oakland
Play: Oakland -13
The Grizzlies will be tough to handle here tonight as they are 4-0 at home and scoring 91 points per game. They have covered 10 of 12 in December, 20 of 28 off a non conference game and 5 of 7 vs teams who allow 77 or more points per game. Oral Roberts is 0-4 in games away from their home court allowing 79 points per game. They have failed to cover both times as a road dog in this range and have shot under 37% in 3 straight games and may be without A. Anderson in this game. In games vs teams who average 77 or more they have failed to cover 8 of the last 11. Look for Oakland to go coast to coast in this one.
Marc Lawrence
Cowboys vs. Vikings
Play: Over 43½
Edges - Cowboys 5-2 OVER following last seven Thanksgiving Day games. Vikings: 4-1 OVER following Thanksgiving Day games. With NFL teams 12-4 OVER in a matchup of two teams that each played its previous game on Thanksgiving Day, we recommend a 1* play on the OVER total in this game.
Jim Feist
Magic at Grizzlies
Pick: Over
Orlando brings its best defense out at home but they head out on the road here and the Over is 5-2 in Magic last 7 games vs. a team with a winning percentage above .600. Memphis is 18-7-1 over the total at home against a team with a losing road record.
Scott Spreitzer
Clippers vs. Cavs
Play: Cavs -5
Cleveland needs to bounce back from its shocking 17-point loss at Milwaukee and will host an opponent in the Los Angeles Clippers, who are coming off a 127-122 double overtime loss at Brooklyn on Tuesday and playing their fifth road game in nine days. Also, the Cavaliers have won and covered the last four meetings and the Clippers are on a current three-game losing streak. The Clippers and Nets combined to miss 52 three-point shots while making only 26 in 78 attempts. Blake Griffin was rested and will be back in the lineup tonight, but the Clippers are 2-12 ATS their last 14 games in Cleveland. LeBron James scored 22 points and Kevin Love added 13 points and 13 rebounds, but the Cavaliers couldn't overcome the Bucks shooting 53.5 percent from the field. The Clippers are 1-7 ATS their last eight games overall and Cleveland has covered five straight after a loss dating to last season.
Zack Cimini
Milwaukee vs. Brooklyn
Pick: Milwaukee
Thursday, we have two teams coming off the monumental upsets. The Bucks defeated the Cavs on their home floor and the Nets defeated the Clippers. One would expect the road team in the Bucks to be the team possibly due for a let down Thursday. Yet, Milwaukee has newfound offens
David Banks
Dallas at Minnesota
Pick: Over 44
The 10-1 Cowboys have not lost since Week 1 of the season. Despite playing three games in 12 days, Dallas has shown no ill effects of the quick turnaround and defeated rival Washington 31-26 on Thanksgiving Day. The Cowboys have the NFL’s leading rusher, Ezekiel Elliott, and the league’s best rookie quarterback in Dak Prescott. Elliott has rushed for 1199 yards and 11 touchdowns, while Prescott has thrown for 2835 yards, 18 TDs, and just two interceptions. He has played with incredible poise and is a big reason why Dallas has the NFL’s best record.
Just over a month ago, the Vikings were 5-0 and on their way to a second-straight NFC North Division title. Then, the wheels came off the bus. All-Pro running back Adrian Peterson was lost for the season early and then it really came apart when both starting offensive tackles were lost for the season. Heading into Thursday night’s game, the Vikings have $30 million of their 2016 salary cap on injured reserve. The results, of course, have been devastating for Minnesota – just one win in the last six games.
Now, they face the NFL’s best team in prime time. Dallas is second in the NFL in rushing, third in scoring offense, and tenth in scoring defense. The one thing the Cowboys are not good at is takeaways. No team has ever reached the Super Bowl averaging less than one takeaway per game. Dallas has 11 in 11 games.
Wunderdog
Los Angeles vs. Arizona
Pick: Los Angeles -148
Los Angeles has excellent balance and is playing well, winning five of the last six. L.A. lost last night but the deep Kings are 11-5 when playing on no days of rest. They face a bad Arizona team that is #25 in goals scored, #29 on the power play, #27 in goals allowed and #24 in penalty killing. The status of Oliver Ekman-Larsson remains up in the air because of an upper-body injury that forced the defenseman to exit Tuesday's game after two periods. Arizona is on an 8-17 run, as well as 23-58 against a team with a winning record.
Jim Mack
Cowboys at Vikings
Play: Vikings
There is a pretty interesting underdog angle for betting Minnesota this Thursday against Dallas: Play on underdogs after allowing 5.5 or less passing yards/attempt in 2 straight games against opponent after allowing 7 or more passing yards/attempt in 2 straight games. The system is on a 53-24 ATS surge. Essentially what it is telling us is that since Minnesota is playing far better pass defense than Dallas right now, they are the play in this game. Sure there are other factors that will contribute in the end, but being able to stop the pass in the NFL and limit big plays is a critical component of success. Going back three games, all wins by the way, the Cowboys have allowed 372 YPG thru the air and 8.3 yards per attempt. Those numbers are ugly and suggest that HC Jason Garrett’s team is playing with fire. Naturally the Vikings will have to take some chances this week to exploit that weakness, but there defense is good enough to keep them in this game regardless. This is going to be a difficult test for Dallas, in a tough environment, facing an increasingly desperate team. With the way this line has dumped this week, I’ll take Minnesota with a good shot at the upset.
Dr. Bob
Dallas Cowboys @ Minnesota Vikings
A Thursday game in which two teams had a full week of rest to prepare post their Thanksgiving losses will feature two of the slowest tempo teams in the NFL. The Cowboys are one of the best teams at chewing clock, averaging 29.7 seconds per play (2nd slowest in the league), as they play with leads in an attempt to keep their below average defense off the field. Dallas has the highest offensive success rate in the league at 54.4%, which is even more impressive considering their run-heavy offense (51.9% run), the next closest team, the Bills, is a full 3% points behind them. Minnesota plays with the 6th slowest adjusted tempo although their offense has not been good, ranking 25th in efficiency and 31st in explosiveness, as they want to induce variance on the offensive side. Minnesota has a negative yards per play differential and has benefited from a +12 turnover differential that helped them get off to their fast start, but has since tapered off along with their record (1-5 since starting 5-0). The advanced stats model sees two teams who chew clock and value on the Under, so UNDER (44) is a Strong Opinion. Lean to Dallas (-3).
Scott Rickenbach
New York at Buffalo
Play: New York
This line has dropped all morning line and is now in a very favorable price range for a Rangers club that is certainly the better team plus also playing with home loss revenge. Yes it was last season but April wasn’t that long ago and the Rangers lost to the Sabres 4-3 at Madison Square Garden in a game that New York #1 netminder Henrik Lundqvist got pulled early after allowing 3 goals on just 9 shots. You can bet (literally!) that Lundqvist and the Rangers will have revenge on their minds tonight and, even though they are off of a win over Carolina they also have another game with the Hurricanes on deck. That said, this game tonight is certainly the focal point for the Rangers in terms of their current scheduling situation. That said, when the Rangers are focused they are tough to beat and they also are catching the Sabres off of a big divisional win (5-4 over Ottawa) so it is a good spot to fade Buffalo. The Sabres, before their win over the Senators, had lost 8 of their 10 prior games. Buffalo, prior to the win over the Sens, had also been held to 2 goals or less in 12 of their last 13 games! That is significant here because the Rangers are the top ranked offense in the league at 3.67 goals per game while the Sabres are dead last at 1.95 goals per game so far this season. The drop in line here makes this one well worth the investment.
Vegas Butcher
Los Angeles Clippers +3.5
It's not often a team the caliber of LA, loses 3 in a row...especially when those are 'lowly' opponents like DET, IND, and BKN. I'd expect this team to really take tonight's game as seriously as possible. They're facing the World Champs, they're sliding a bit, and people are beginning to doubt LA as a real contender. Well, with the personalities they have on this squad (including the coach), I don't see how we don't get anything but max effort in this one. This is still the team with the 2nd ranked defense in the league a top-5 offense. I think we'll see a fun exciting game, which should be very close. I'll grab the points tonight.
Brad Wilton
Thursday's comp play is, surprise, surprise, the Dallas Cowboys.
Dallas is now riding a 10 game winning streak, and they have covered in 9 of those 10 games.
Minnesota dropped another on Thanksgiving Thursday, as they are now 1-5 both straight up and against the spread since opening at 5-0 on the year.
The Vikings are simply too injured to be trusted plus just a field goal or so, and the Cowboys are showing every indication that the path to the Super Bowl this season is going to have to go through Jerry World this January.
No surprise in the Twin Cities on Thursday, as Dallas pushes the winning streak to 11 straight, and they move to 10-1 against the spread, while the Vikes tailspin continues.
Lay it with the Cowboys.
4* DALLAS
Brett Atkins
My Thursday free play release will be to play the Under in the Cowboys-Vikings game from U.S. Bank Stadium.
Dallas has posted 24 points or better in each of their last 8 games, but 5 of the 8 have stayed Under the total. Their defense is certainly capable of keeping the injured Minnesota offense out of the end-zone tonight and making it 6 of 9 Under the total.
As for Minnesota, they are always a solid choice to play Under the total, as the Vikings have played 7 of 11 games overall this year Under the total, and the Under is now 19-8-1 since the start of last year for Mike Zimmer's team.
If the Vikings defense can keep the Dallas offense in check, then this game could turn out to be one of the more interesting Thursday nighters this season.
Look for the points to be hard to come by tonight, as Dallas and Minny hold just Under the total.
1* DALLAS-MINNESOTA UNDER