Bob Valentino
Let's get to my free play for Thursday, as I like the Utah Utes over the Montana State Bobcats.
Yes, Montana State is scoring in droves, and has a high-octane offense, but tonight is the wake-up call. Tonight the 'Cats face their biggest test of the season, and Utah is going to denounce what they do.
See, the one thing that is in question with Montana State is communication and chemistry on defense, and that will pose a problem against an equally potent Utah team. The Utes are going to turn the Bobcats into a ball-watching team, as they won't be able to keep up with Utah's scheme.
Utah won its first four games before losing at home to No. 18 Butler on Monday, so the Utes are going to be pissed off and looking for a little redemption.
2* UTAH
Eric Schroeder
Looking for the Cleveland Cavaliers to rebound after an embarrassing loss in Milwaukee - a game in which J.R. Smith was even more embarrassing - and take care of the visiting Los Angeles Clippers.
Both teams are in after tough road losses, but the junket continues for the Clippers, while the Cavs are back home to entertain an L.A. team that lost in double overtime at the Brooklyn Nets. And quite frankly, this is a great spot for Cleveland, because the Clippers are struggling during a six-game tour, having lost three straight.
It happens, though, as L.A. was the last undefeated team in the NBA, and then won 14 of its first 16 games. The Clippers are getting a dose of reality, is all, and tonight Cleveland will serve a massive thunk to the their domes.
With both teams expected to be back at full strength, you have to look at the big picture and pick the best team here. Cleveland is going to win this game by double digits.
4* CAVALIERS
Chris Jordan
My free play is on the short-handed Memphis Grizzlies, who return home to face the Orlandao Magic. Both teams are dealing with reality checks this week, so I'm not so sure the right team is favored in this game.
The Grizzlies just won six straight road games before having to play without All-Star point guard Mike Conley. Now, after a 120-105 loss, the Grizzlies (11-8 ) have an idea of what life will be like without him. With Orlando in town, I think Memphis will rebound to take care of a team that is also dealing with a new coach, not to mention a slew of new players in different roles and still trying to jell.
The Magic have already relegated draft picks to the D-League, which tells me they're unsure of the talent they have.
It's not as if the Grizzlies weren't playing respectably, as they didn't fall apart until the fourth quarter against the Raptors, who went on a 16-5 run late to ice the game. Now, if the Grizzlies are going to stay relevant in the Western Conference, these young players have to step up and lead the way during Conley's absence. We saw the Lakers do it in Chicago last night, we'll see Memphis do it at home.
3* MEMPHIS
BRANDON LEE
Jazz -9.5
I actually think we are getting some value here with Utah, even at a line approaching double-digits. The Jazz are playing their best basketball of the season right now, as they come in having won 4 straight with all 4 wins by at least 9 points (3 of them by 18+). Miami is not a good team and are dealing with a number of injuries right now that make it near impossible for them to play well in the 2nd game of back-to-back sets. After playing last night in Denver, the Heat are primed for a major letdown here in Utah, as they just don't have the bodies to be competitive without fresh legs, as they aren't that talented. Utah should jump all over Miami right out of the gate and turn this into a blowout early.
KEN LOWDEN
Clippers vs. Cavs
Play: Cavs -3½
The Los Angeles Clippers are getting outscored by 12.3 points per game on average in their last 3 games. This is not the type of basketball that you want to be playing while going into Cleveland against the Cavaliers (13-3) and LeBron James. The Cavaliers are outscoring their opponents by an average of 12.9 points per game this season while at home. Do not hesitate to select the Cavaliers in this matchup as the Clippers are going to lose their 4th straight game .
DAVE PRICE
Rockets/Warriors Over 231
The Key: This has the makings of being one of the highest scoring games of the young NBA season. These are two of the best offensive teams in the NBA. The Warriors are 1st in the NBA in offensive efficiency at 114.6 points per 100 possessions, while the Rockets are 4th at 110.0 points per 100 possessions. Both teams prefer to play at a fast pace too, so this is going to see a ton of possessions. They also both love shooting the 3-ball as the Rockets shoot 37 per game at a 37.8% clip, while the Warriors shoot 32 per game at a 38.4% clip. Plenty of long rebounds will lead to easy buckets at the other end for both teams. The OVER is 4-0 in Rockets last 4 games overall. The OVER is 11-2 in Rockets last 13 games following a straight up loss of more than 10 points. The OVER is 4-0 in Warriors last 4 games when playing on 2 days rest.
JACK JONES
NBA | Dec 01, 2016
Mavs/Hornets Under 193.5
The Dallas Mavericks have been a mess this season at just 3-14 on the season. Their biggest problem has been their inability to get easy baskets. They still play solid defense, but offensively they can't get anything to come easy for them.
The Mavs rank 29th in the NBA in pace at 94.1 possessions per game. They certainly aren't doing much with those possessions as they rank 28th in offensive efficiency at 96.6 points per 100 possessions. They are averaging just 91.2 points per game on the season.
The biggest reason for the Hornets' turnaround over the past few seasons is that they've bought in to Steve Clifford and are playing defense. They rank 9th in the NBA in defensive efficiency this season. They should be able to shut down a Dallas team that is missing two of its best offensive weapons on Dirk Nowitzki and Jose Barea.
The UNDER is 9-3-1 in the last 13 meetings in Charlotte. The UNDER is 5-2 in the last seven meetings overall. The UNDER is 8-2 in Mavericks last 10 Thursday games. The UNDER is 7-3 in Mavericks last 10 vs. Eastern Conference foes.
JIMMY BOYD
Cavaliers -5
I like the value here with Cleveland laying a relatively small number at home against a big time opponent in a nationally televised game (TNT), especially with the Cavs locked in after an ugly 101-118 loss at Milwaukee last time out. Say what you want about the loss to the Bucks, but Cleveland clearly wasn't all that interested in that game. I believe a lot of that had to do with them looking ahead to this game. There's zero doubt in my mind that the Cavs will be locked in mentally for this one and when they come to play they are extremely tough to beat on their home floor.
The Clippers are a very good team, but they aren't playing well at the moment. Los Angeles has lost 3 straight since opening the season 14-2. It started with a 11-point loss at Detroit, which they followed up two nights later with a miserable showing at Indiana in a 70-91 defeat. They then lost in overtime 122-127 against a bad Brooklyn team. Most just assume they can turn on the switch and go right back to playing at an elite level, but this is a tough spot for the Clippers, who are playing their 5th straight on the road, which has seen them go from Dallas, to Detroit, to Indiana to Brooklyn and now to Cleveland. All in a 9 day stretch.
Cavs are 15-3 ATS in their last 18 after allowing 55+ points in the 1st half in 2 straight games, 5-1 ATS in their last 6 home games against a team with a winning road record and 5-0 ATS in their last 5 off a SU loss. Clippers are 5-15 ATS in their last 20 road games after failing to cover 4 of their last 5 and 1-9 ATS in their last 10 off an upset loss as a road favorite.
SPORTS WAGERS
MINNESOTA +3 over Dallas
The last time anyone saw the Vikings, they laid an egg in Detroit on Thanksgiving Day. While it was a lackluster performance, the Lions weren't much better and it took a 58-yard field goal as time expired for Detroit to win it. We were on the Vikes last week and although the result wasn't what we wanted, there were enough positives for us to come back on them this week. They shut down the high powered Detroit passing attack and this defense looks a lot more like the unit that led this team to a 5-0 start than the one that's gone 1-5 since. That's important because the Vikings are built on defense first. They've invested draft picks and money in their defensive backfield and it shows. The Vikings are very stingy when it comes to the passing game. They are the only team in the league to not allow a 100-yard receiver. Opposing offenses are only completing 57.9 percent of their passes, which is third best in the league. Opposition quarterbacks have struggled as well with just a 74.3 quarterback rating, the second lowest efficiency ranking in the NFL. Minny's D is also one of only four units that has not allowed a 300-yard passing game in 2016.
The Cowboys are the class of the NFC and we think they're legit. It's hard to run this team down but at 10-1 “America's Team” is getting a ton of attention heading into Week 13. During their 10-game winning streak, the Cowboys have been favored on the road just twice; at the 49ers and at the Browns. This is a classic “offense” versus “defense” matchup and that has us looking at the home town Vikings tonight.
Truth be told, the ‘Boys look like the obvious choice here. They are the hottest team in football while the Vikes have fallen off the map. The Cowboys are looking to get that #1 seed in the NFC and it is not impossible that they could win out and be 15-1 on the season. However, this is one of those prime time games in which the favorite looks too good. These type of games have been bankroll killers for years because the odds makers know exactly where the heavy money is going and they encourage it. At some point, almost every team playing as well as Dallas in a 16-game schedule will get caught flat. Football is too emotionally draining to sustain high intensity throughout the year. Dallas is coming off a hard-fought game against one of their biggest rivals, the Skins‘, also on Thanksgiving Day. Dallas plays on prime time again next week against another one of their biggest rivals, the New York Giants. So, let’s forget all the X’s and O’s here and focus on what’s important. The odds makers are betting that the ‘Boys are not that sharp here, which prompts us enough to step in.
SPORTS WAGERS
DETROIT +113 over Florida
OT included. The Red Wings are being greatly disrespected here. Who the f**k are the Panthers to be favored in Detroit? Florida is 11-12 and they’re also 4-7 against the top-16 teams in the league. The Panthers will play their third straight on the road and they haven’t won a game in regulation since November 19th when they defeated Ottawa but was outshot 40-23 and out-chanced 28-11. The game before defeating Ottawa, the Panthers lost in Toronto, 6-1. In five of their past seven games, the Panthers have scored two goals or less. They fire their coach and now they’re supposed to go on some sort of roll? The Panthers are so beatable and cannot be road chalk here.
This entire market is down on the Red Wings and has been since the beginning of the year. While some of it is warranted, most of it is not and we’re starting to take an interest in them because they’re so undervalued. The Red Wings have suffered from a lack of offense but don’t expect it to last much longer, as they’re loaded up front with speed and skill. Frans Nielsen has been playing great hockey. Dylan Larkin is not producing like last year but it’s only because of poor puck luck. Larkin is getting a ton of good looks but he’s just not burying them yet. Add Anthony Mantha, a good looking youngster, Tomas Tatar, Henrik Zetterberg, Gustav Nyquist, Mike Green and Justin Abdelkader to go along with Nielsen and Larkin and one can get a picture of how lethal this group can be. Detroit’s maligned defense is taking heat but they may be underrated too and appear to be getting better as the season wears on. Detroit defeated Dallas 3-1 in its last game. Previously, they played New Jersey and Montreal and outshot both of them by counts of 33-19 and 33-24 respectively. The Red Wings are not a contender, nor are they an upper echelon team but as a dog at home to this inferior invader, we would back them 100% of the time and make no exception here.
ST. LOUIS -½ +116 over Tampa Bay
Regulation only. There is no question that we underestimated the Blues before the season started. After a slow start, the Blue Notes are now second in the Central. Depth is such a weapon right now in the NHL and the Blues have it even after their offseason subtractions. The Blues are the best possession team in the NHL up to this point and when one guy gets cold, another one gets hot. The Blues have won six of seven with only loss over that span occurring against the Capitals. The Blues are healthy, they’re well rested and they’re in very good form at the moment.
By contrast, the Bolts have been nothing short of a mess but the market has not caught up to just how flawed they really are. There are long stretches every single game in which the Lightning cannot get the puck out of their own end. Against a team like St. Louis, that is going to take a toll on everyone. Only four teams, Arizona, Winnipeg, the Rangers and Dallas have had more face-offs in their own end than Tampa, which is further proof of its difficulty of moving the puck out. The loss of Steven Stamkos hurts big time. Defensemen Luke Witkowsk and Slater Koekkoek are being forced to play more minutes than they should be because Jason Garrison, Andrej Sustr Nikita Nesterov and even Victor Hedman are making so many bad decisions back there. To add to their misery, Ben Bishop is not getting as lucky anymore (we’ve been saying for two years how bad he truly is) with a sorry .902 save percentage and a league low .841 save percentage on the penalty kill. Lastly, the Bolts are 0-6 against top-10 teams and a league worst 1-9 against top-16 teams. When the Lightning do win, it is against the lower echelon teams in the NHL of which the Blues are not.
BUFFALO +119 over N.Y. Rangers
OT included. If you’re looking for overvalued teams that are in line for big regression, look no further than the Rangers. Here’s a team that is 26th in Corsi against per 60 minutes during 5-on-5 play and that comes in with an incredible and unsustainable 103.8 PDO (a metric that measures luck). The Rangers shooting % is an off the charts 11.60%, which is almost twice as high as the following teams: Vancouver, New Jersey, Dallas, Boston, Ottawa, San Jose, Colorado, Anaheim, St. Louis and Florida, all of whom have a shooting percentage under 6.90%. That is just an indication of how lucky the Rangers have been.
The Rangers defeated the ‘Canes on Tuesday to run their record to 16-8. They had 21 shots on net and trailed 2-0 after one but more luck combined with a bone-headed double minor by Ron Hainsey allowed the Rangers to take the lead. They were clearly outplayed and if you watched that game and bet the Rangers, you would have sold your ticket for 25 cents on the dollar after the first period. In successive games against Philadelphia and Pittsburgh last week, the Rangers were outshot 42-23 and 38-17 respectively. Only Arizona and Edmonton have surrendered more high quality scoring chances against than the Rangers. The Rangers are a beatable hockey team on their best day and they simply can’t keep winning when they are constantly getting outplayed.
The Sabres have had trouble scoring goals so one can only imagine the euphoria in that Sabres locker room after they went off for five goals against Ottawa on Tuesday in Jack Eichel’s return. 10 minutes into the first period and the Sabres had a 2-0 lead with Eichel figuring in on both goals. Now the Sabres will host the Rangers back in Buffalo feeling pretty good and with an added jump in their step. The Sabres should start trending in the right direction now. With a core that features Evander Kane, Ryan O'Reilly, Kyle Okposo, Jack Eichel and Sam Reinhardt, Buffalo is perhaps the most under the radar squad in the league after the first quarter of the season. We’re not concerned in the least about Robin Lehner’s injury because Anders Nilsson has been very good in a backup role. At the end of the day, this market believes in the Rangers because of results over performance and that is something we are going to try and take advantage by constantly fading the Rangers when they’re overvalued like they are here.
Big Al
Edmonton vs. Winnipeg
Pick: Edmonton
After a red-hot start which saw them go 8-1 in their first nine games, the Edmonton Oilers have definitely cooled off substantially in the last month. Edmonton is now essentially treading water at 12-12 on the season, while the Jets have a similar - if losing - 12-14 record coming into tonight. The biggest problem for the Jets coming into this critical Western Conference battle is their multiple injuries to key players. They will be very thin on their front line, especially at the left wing position as both Matthieu Perreault and Shawn Matthias are out tonight against a very talented Oilers' roster. The Oilers are on a three-game losing streak, but with a healthy offense that includes Connor McDavid, Jordan Eberle, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, and the addition this season of Milan Lucic, this team is just too good not to turn it around. The road team is 4-1 in the last five meetings of these two clubs.
Will Rogers
New Jersey vs. Chicago
Pick: Chicago
The set-up: The 10-7-5 New Jersey Devils take on the 15-6-3 Chicago Blackhawks. The Devils have dropped five straight games away from home after Tuesday night's 3-2 loss to the Jets in Winnipeg, while the Blackhawks are back in Chicago for a second straight home game following two weeks on the road because of the circus.
New Jersey: The Devils couldn't bounce back from a two-goal deficit against the Jets, as the team dropped to 3-7-3 on the road this season. However, head coach John Hynes didn't question his team's effort. "I think it shows a resilient group," Hynes told reporters after the loss. "The thing is, you don't want to be down in games, chasing games, but I think the belief in how we play and that we can come back is important. That is also a part of the game where you have to have some belief, and we have that, but we'd like to put ourselves in situations where we have a lead more often than not."
Chicago: The Blackhawks slipped past the Florida Panthers 2-1 in a shootout on Tuesday night, the team’s first game at home since Nov. 13. Richard Panik netted a goal in regulation and another in the shootout for Chicago, which also received 38 saves from Corey Crawford in regulation and overtime before he stopped both Florida shots in the shootout.
The pick: While Blackhawks captain Jonathan Toews could sit out his fourth straight game on Thursday, it has to feel good to be back home. Meanwhile, the road-weary Devils come in nearing the end of a stretch where 12 of their 16 games have been played away from home. The travel appears to be catching up with New Jersey, which has dropped three straight one-goal decisions and six of its last seven (1-4-2) following a five-game winning streak. Take the Blackhawks who are 9-1-2 at home this season.
Harry Bondi
MINNESOTA +3 over Dallas
FREE WINNER with a team that has lost 5 of their last 6 games, struggled to score, has A QB who typically tanks when the game is on the line and whose Head Coach won’t be there tonight!! Now you know why we are not releasing this game to our Steam Team Members but it’s worth a small play as the Free Winner because what the Vikings do have is a solid defense and an offense that plays its best at home and against good teams. Cowboys have struggled at Minnesota going 0-6 both straight up and ATS their last 6 trips to the Twin Cities and Vikings are 13-3 ATS their last 16 games against teams with a winning record.
Stephen Nover
Colorado +119
It looked like Colorado was turning a corner when it posted road victories against the Wild and these same Blue Jackets entering their current homestand.
However, the Avalanche has lost the first three games of their homestand and are in-the-circle-the-wagons mode here with just one home game left before going back on the road. I'm looking for a big game in goal from a rested Semyon Varlamov, who sat out the past two games.
Colorado coach Jared Bednar knows Columbus well. He led Lake Erie, which is an affiliate of the Blue Jackets, to the AHL championship last season. I expect a solid game plan to be in place along with a strong sense of urgency.
The Blue Jackets are playing well. But regression is due to hit. I find them to be overrated based on some of their lopsided victories that have padded their statistics.