Free Picks for Thursday, December 22nd, 2016 from some of the nations best and worst handicappers.
Oskeim Sports
Colorado St vs Idaho
Play: Idaho +13.5
With 13 seniors, 61% of its tackles and 83% of its points back from last year's 4-8 squad, I had Idaho circled as one of the most improved teams in college football. And, the Vandals did not disappoint as they finished the regular season with 8 wins and are heading to a bowl game for the first time since 2009 (won the Humanitarian Bowl).
Idaho's weakness is on the defensive side of the ball where the Vandals are 0.5 yards per play worse than average (6.0 yards per play to teams that would combine to average 5.5 yards per play). However, Idaho's stop unit played extremely well down the strtetch, allowing just 19.0 points and 339 total yards at 5.4 yards per play in its final three games (3-0 SU & ATS).
Kaden Elliss has five interceptions this season, which is third-best in the Sun Belt Conference and 25th among FBS players. The ball-hawking linebacker also ranks ranks third in interceptions per game (.4) and forced fumbles per game (.27).
Teams failed miserably trying to run against the Vandals' front seven during the final three weeks of the regular season, garnering just 77 rushing yards at 2.7 yards per carry. Overall, Idaho is 0.1 yards per rush attempt better than average in 2016 (4.2 yards per rush attempt to teams that would combine to average 4.3 yards per rush play).
Meanwhile, Idaho quarterback Matt Linehan, who posted a top 5 statistical season in the conference last year (135.5 QB rating; 16 touchdown passes; nearly 3,000 passing yards), had another solid campaign in 2016. Linehan is ranked second in the Sun Belt in total passing yards (2,803) and fourth in both pass efficiency (127.5) and total offense (257.7).
The Vandals averaged 40.7 points and 395 total yards at 5.7 yards per play over their last three games, while Linehan posted a quarterback rating of 174.3, 108.8 and 186.8, respectively, in those contests. "It's been my favorite season I've been a part of. All the hard work we've put in is finally coming to fruition," Linehan said. "We want to have one of the best seasons this program has had," he continued. "We're not going to get complacent. We want to finish with a bowl win, but we also want to finish with the best record we can."
Team chemistry is also at an all-time high for the Vandals' offense. "I have confidence in everybody in this offense," Linehan said. "There's just a lot of trust there. We've spent a lot of time together and put a lot of work together."
The Vandals should move the chains with relative ease against a woefully inadequate Colorado State defense that allowed 34.3 points and 452 total yards per game at 6.5 yards per play on the road and 37.0 points and 426 total yards at 6.4 yards per play (11.5 yards per point!) over the final three games of the regular season.
Colorado State's secondary was exploited on foreign soil where they allowed opposed quarterbacks to complete 60.2% of their pass attempts at 8.8 yards per pass play. Linehan completed 67.8% of his passes in his last three starts (8.1 yards per pass attempt), and I expect those numbers to improve after facing the Rams' subpar defensive backfield.
Idaho also possesses a distinct advantage in special teams behind senior kicker Austin Rehkow, who is the program's all-time field goal percentage leader (.761) with 70 made on 92 attempts. Rehkow is also the Sun Belt's leader in 2016 in scoring average (9.1) and field-goals per game (2.09), while ranking second in field goal percentage (.897) and third in punting average (42.6). Rehkow has made 26 of his 29 field goal attempts this season and has a career percentage of .976 on extra points (35-for-35 in 2016).
Colorado State place kicker Wyatt Bryan was 11-of-14 on field goal attempts in 2016, although he only converted 50% of his attempts from 40-49 yards. I also can't imagine that Colorado State is overly excited to be playing a Sun Belt opponent in the Famous Idaho Potato Bowl. In contrast, Idaho is thrilled to be playing a bowl in their home state and will be represented well in the stands (only 454 miles from campus.
Finally, Idaho has added motivation in the fact that its FBS days are numbered (moving to the FCS in 2018) so the Vandals' senior leadership (and head coach Paul Petrino) would love nothing more than to kick the Sun Belt where it counts on their way out of the conference. "We've been through some tough times together, coach Petrino said. "The more tough times you've went through makes you tougher, iron sharpens iron. We're a pretty darn tough team right now."
Andy Iskoe
Colorado St. -15
Colorado State is in a Bowl for a fourth straight season, seeking to end a 2 Bowl losing streak. Idaho's last Bowl was their 2009 win over Bowling Green in this Bowl. Only Temple (11-1) had a better ATS record this season than Colorado State. 3-4 SU in mid season, the Rams won 4 of their last 5 games, scoring at least 37 points in each game and covered each of their last 7 games. Idaho is poised to drop down from FBS status to FCS but might rethink that decision following this season's surprise success. After winning just 5 total games between 2011 and 2014 the Vandals went 4-8 in 2015 and that improvement continued this season. After early season one sided losses to Washington and Washington State the Vandals finished the season winning 6 of 7 and covering in all 7. Even though the Bowl is being played in its home state Boise is nearly 300 miles from the Idaho campus. Still, expect the Vandals to enjoy the vast majority of the crowd support. Colorado State enjoys several key edges, including a much better ability to run the football and an edge in avoiding turnovers. The defensive stats are fairly close although the combination of both show CSU with a yards per play differential of +0.5 with Idaho -0.6. Idaho defended the run fairly well but was below average vs the pass. Those games against the two Washington schools give Idaho the tougher schedule although CSU stepped up in class as well, losing badly to Colorado and more competitively at Minnesota. The weather conditions could influence this game and if so CSU has that edge in the running game that is complemented by a decent passing game. In winning 4 of its last 5 games each of those CSU wins was by at least 18 points or more. The lone loss was at geographical and conference rival Air Force, 49-46. While it is tempting to call for Idaho to end its surprising season on a high note Colorado State has too much in its favor to call for the upset. CSU's ability to run the football also suggests edges late in the game. And the Rams also had the much more impressive win over their lone common foe, at UNLV.
SPORTS WAGERS
Idaho +15 over Colorado St.
While the jolly Famous Idaho Potato Bowl, like any other post-season festivity is considered a neutral site, the proximity of this affair in relation to the Vandals creates some form of an edge for the team with the partisan crowd. In other words, since this is being played in the state of Idaho, consider it a home game for the dog. The Vandals played just four games at home this year but they went 3-1 over that span. What we like the most however, is that after opening the year with just two wins in its first five games, the Vandals closed out the year by winning six of their last seven. The first two losses of the Idaho docket are ugly to look at but they also comprise of two road trips to the two teams that played for the Pac-12 North crown in 2016, Washington and Washington State. Idaho was soundly defeated by both in back-to-back weeks but Washington State was at one point undefeated in Pac-12 play and of course the Huskies earned the #4 seed in the College Football Playoff as Pac-12 Champion. Idaho would pick up their third loss two weeks later against Troy, who for most of 2016 was the forerunner for the Sun Belt title. Since then, Idaho won six of their last seven and quietly covered them all. The only straight up loss for the Vandals came against Sun Belt Champion Appalachian State on the road.
The Rams of Colorado State are spotting inflated points here mainly for two reasons. First, they’re a more recognizable Mountain West team and secondly, they soundly defeated New Mexico and two-time defending Mountain West Champion San Diego State in their final two games of the season. However, the Rams’ victory against the Aztecs was a bit of a misnomer, as it can almost be certitude that the Aztecs treated their contest with the Rams as a bye to prepare for their title defense against Wyoming the following week. The game meant squat to the Aztecs and the Rams took it to them but we’re strongly suggesting to not put any weight on that victory over SDSU. When looking at Bowl Games, it is often difficult to get a true read on a team’s credentials and then apply that to an opponent in a different conference that they never see. That said, New Mexico is the only other Mountain West team to play in a Bowl Game thus far (Wyoming plays tonight), and New Mexico didn’t cover in a three-point victory over UTSA. Meanwhile, three teams from the Sun Belt have already played in a Bowl Game (App State, Louisiana Lafayette and Arkansas State) and two were outright winners while ULL was the only loser but lost by just seven. Colorado State’s 7-5 record with close games and loses to some average competition stick out more than their past two victories agaisnt disinterested clubs.
Fourth-year Idaho boss Paul Petrino has a third-year starter at quarterback in Matt Linehan, and together they produced an offense that scored more than 40 points per game in a three-game stretch to close the season. The defense did its part too down the stretch. No matter how you break it down, the Vandals are equipped to make this a fair fight. We often talk about mindset, which has influence on our choice because it matters. In that regard, the home-state Vandals see this as a program-defining moment, while for the Rams it's just a routine bowl assignment in a far-flung postseason outpost against an uninspiring opponent. Idaho can win this one outright thus, we see this as one of the better bets of the Bowl season.
DAVE COKIN
BRUINS AT PANTHERS
PLAY: BRUINS +100
Boston has not been winning lately, but it’s not like they’re playing all that badly. The Panthers have finally won a couple in succession but they’re not a very good hockey team right now.
I like the goaltending angle here. Tuukka Rask should be back in goal for the Bruins after having been yanked last outing. That wasn’t necessarily Rask having a terrible game, just terrible luck. One goal was after he collided with a teammate behind the net, and another was off a fluky board bounce that ended up landing right on the stick of an opposing player. Regardless, I like good goalies off a state where they get pulled. It also doesn’t hurt that Rask has owned the Panthers throughout his career.
Also, Florida will go with James Reimer in the cage, and the Panthers backup has been nothing special when called upon. Reimer is already confirmed as the starter in this game for Florida, and while there’s no such thing as 100%, when it’s confirmed the night before, it’s usually chiseled in granite.
If you’re into in-season team trends, the numbers here point pretty clearly to the Boston side. I think the visitors ought to be the chalk here, so I have no problem backing the Bruins side at even money.
Scott Spreitzer
Portland vs. CS-Fullerton
Play: CS-Fullerton +3½
We went against Portland on these pages last time out and cashed when 8-point underdog Portland State beat the Pilots outright, 77-75. We noted the combination of little depth and a very busy schedule was likely to take its toll on the WCC entry. Once again, Portland is playing on just one night of rest. In fact, this will be Portland's fourth game in seven nights. Add in the lack of depth, (just six players played more than 10 minutes in their last game), and we have a tired favorite. The Pilots' two best players are Alec Wintering & Gabe Taylor. These two are getting worked hard. Wintering has played 40, 40, & 32 minutes the last three games, or 112 minutes of a possible 120. Taylor has played 40, 40, & 37 minutes, sitting just 3 minutes of the last 120! The Titans, meanwhile, will be playing just their second game in the last 13 days. Fullerton also has depth on their side with a dozen players averaging more than 10 minutes played per contest.
Ben Burns
Maple Leafs vs. Avalanche
Play: Avalanche +107
Off four straight losses, the Avs could really use a win before Christmas. Knowing that tomorrow night's game at Chicago will likely be a lot more difficult than this one, the Avs should be ready to go "all out" to try and snap their skid this evening.
These teams met at the Air Canada Centre on 12/11. The Avs took that one by a 3-1 score, the last time that they won a game. Obviously, the Leafs would love to avenge that loss. One problem is that they're not as good away from Toronto. Not by a longshot. They're 9-8 at home but just 3-11 on the road. Its also worth mentioning that the Leafs are a dismal 42-81 (-32.1) in the "revenge role" the past 2+ seasons.
Scoring has been a recent issue for the Avs, who were blanked 2-0 in their last game. The Leafs allow 3.3 goals per game on the road though. So, relief is potentially in sight. Note that the Avs remain a profitable 28-18 (+16.7) the past 2+ seasons, after scoring one goal or less in their previous game.
The Avs were laying -155 when they hosted the Leafs exactly one year ago. In a game they should be desperate to win, getting them at an underdog price represents solid value.
Brandon Shively
Stephen F Austin vs. Tulsa
Play: Under 140½
This game is played in Hawaii so there is the randomness of the player’s playing out on the island in an afternoon game. This can be good for the Under. Both team’s are in serious rebuilding mode. For Tulsa, they lost 7 of their 8 top scorers from last year. Because of the new team, they are working the ball deeper in the clock and turning the ball over a lot, ranked 342nd in turnover percentage on offense. That’s not good against a S.F. Austin team that thrives on turnovers defensively, turning teams over on 22.1% of their possessions, ranked 40th in the nation.
S.F. Austin lost the Southland’s Player of the Year in Thomas Walkup. They lost experience at the guard position also and one of their other returning starters broke his finger earlier this year. It’s taken a toll on their offense along with learning a new offense under a new head coach. They are turning the ball over 20 times a game while only dishing 12 assist. They rank 350th in turnover percentage on offense! They rank 319th in average possession length. Those two factors should help us out with the ‘Under’ here.
I see this game having a lot of turnovers forced by both team. Neither team shoots the three ball well either. Tulsa is a terrible free throw shooting team at 64.8%. Tulsa held a fast paced Oklahoma State team to only 71 points 12 days ago. Their defense has improved from the beginning of the season. After losing their first 2 games of the season, they have only given up an average of 66 ppg their last 7 games.
S.F. Austin has played some faster teams this year in Kentucky, Arkansas, and Rice which I think leads to a somewhat higher total today than what I projected. We have an afternoon game in Hawaii which is foreign to both teams. We have two offenses that are rebuilding and turning the ball over a ton. S.F. Austin makes up for their subpar opponents field goal percentage by forcing turnover, however they are lacking the talent to execute in transition. Look for a slower paced and sloppy game with enough missed free throws to keep this one in the lower 130’s.
Rob Vinciletti
La Salle vs. Mercer
Play: La Salle -1.5
The Explorers have a much better RPI Scale ranking than Mercer does here and have lost to solid teams in Villanova and Temple. They are 5-0 vs teams ranked worse than 70 like Mercer and 3-1 after allowing 80 or more. Mercer has not played as many tough teams as Lasalle and is 1-6 vs winning teams and all of their wins were vs teams ranked 150 or worse. They are 0-2 as a home dog of 3 or less the last 2 years and 1-27 straight up as a dog. we will back the Road team and lay the minimal points with Lasalle.
Larry Ness
Orlando vs. New York
Pick: New York
The New York Knicks opened a three-game homestand on Tuesday by rallying for their biggest comeback win of the season. Trailing by as many as 15 points, the Knicks ended a three-game losing streak with a 118-111 victory over the Indiana Pacers.
Meanwhile, Orlando also fought back from being down by as many as 13 points to win 136-130 in double-overtime against the Miami Heat on Tuesday, giving the Magic their eighth road victory of the season (Orlando was just 12-29 on the road all last year).
Orlando center Nikola Vucevic is coming off the bench behind Bismack Biyombo but Vucevic ended up playing 40 minutes in a reserve role on Tuesday, finishing with 26 points and 12 rebounds while playing solid defense against Miami center Hassan Whiteside. "(Vucevic) is a smart defender," Magic shooting guard Evan Fournier told reporters. "He’s not the most athletic guy, but he’s very smart and he takes good angles. So it’s good to have Vooch on both ends of the floor." Vucevic averages 12.9 & 10.9, making him the team's third-leading scorer behind SG Fournier (17.7) and PF Ibaka (14.9 & 6.6). PG Payton (11.3 & 5.6 APG) is also in double digits, as is forward Gordon (10.4 & 4.3), who has started 22 of 30 games, alongside of Ibaka. However, the Magic have not scored on a regular basis this season, averaging only 98.1 PPG (27th).
New York: Carmelo Anthony finished with a season high-tying 35 points in the comeback win over the Pacers, ending what was a deep slump at the beginning of the team’s short road trip. He had gone 7-of-31 from the floor in two games before sitting out at Golden State last Thursday, but picked things up at Denver with a 10-of-14 effort to close out the road trip. He carried the momentum into Tuesday’s home game by burying 7-of-11 three-point attempts. Anthony (22.8-5.9) was quick to praise his teammates after Tuesday's win, correctly pointing out that for the team to succeed Kristaps Porzingis (20.2-7.7) and Derrick Rose (16.7-4.5-4.5) need to shoulder some of the load as well. "We're going to need that to take the next step," Anthony told reporters of the balanced offense. "That fourth quarter when I got out of the game, (Porzingis) and Derrick stepped up and took over the game. We're a dangerous team when we can get guys going like that from different areas." Rose (back) returned from a from a two-game absence on Tuesday and appeared well-rested while pouring in 24 points on 9-of-18 shooting
New York will try to keep the momentum going when it entertains the Orlando Magic at Madison Square Garden on Thursday, with the short three-game homestand ending on Christmas Day with a visit from the Boston Celtics. The Knicks are 10-4 SU & ATS at home this season and I don’t expect them to let the Magic back into this one after getting ahead.
Jim Feist
Celtics at Pacers
Pick: Under
The Celtics play good defense for coach Brad Stevens, #10 in the NBA in points allowed, #5 in field goal shooting defense. Boston is on a 15-7 run under the total, and the Under is 24-8 in the Celtics last 32 games following a straight up win. Indiana is home, 8-3 under the total at home. The Under is 20-6 when the Pacers face a team with a winning straight up record. And the Under is 19-7-1 in the last 27 meetings.
Robert Ferringo
Siena (+2.5) over Hofstra
I have a feeling that the wrong team is going to be favored in this one. Don't be fooled by Siena's 4-7 record. This is one of the most experienced mid-major teams in the country, and they have played an extremely challenging schedule, with their nonconference SOS in the Top 50. Three of their losses have come by a total of eight points, and if these guys were 7-4 coming into this game they would be -3, at least. No, the Saints haven't been as consistent on either end of the floor as they were last season. But this is basically the same team that went 21-13 overall and 13-7 in Metro play last year. That record included convincing 13-point win over an excellent Hofstra team last December. I think they can do the same on the road here. The Pride haven't been able to replace the stellar production of last year's starting backcourt of Juan'ya Green and Ameen Tanksley. This year's Hofstra team is much less explosive and a lot smaller, with only two guys taller than 6-6 getting minutes. Siena's frontcourt goes 6-10, 6-8, 6-7, so they should be able to control the paint in this one. This will be a close game in the final minutes. But I think that Siena wins this one outright.
Strike Point Sports
USC (-9) over Missouri State
The Trojans will be double-digit favorites here, but it is a good bounce-back opportunity for Southern Cal despite still winning over the weekend. USC barely hung on to win as 20+ point favorites last Saturday vs. Troy and then did the same thing Monday against Cornell. However here is a good chance to rebound and put together a more complete showing. Confidence is still at an all-time high for the Trojans, and they'll look for a comfortable win before heading into the Christmas weekend.
Carmine Bianco
Chievo Verona at ROMA
Play: Over 2.8
After an away 1-0 loss to league leaders Juventus, Roma returns home where they've won 9 of their last 10 to go with a draw in all competitions with 9 of those producing 3 or more goals. They'll meet a Chievo side they've registered identical 3-0 victories over the last couple of times they visited the Stadio Olympico and the Over will be today's free play.
Buster Sports
Anaheim at Ottawa
Play: Anaheim -105
The Anaheim Ducks play their last game before the Christmas Break in Ottawa tonight and thus ending their 6 game road trip. The Ducks put in a real stinker on Tuesday night as they got manhandled by the Montreal Canadians 5-1. We see the Ducks giving a way better effort tonight as they try and end Ottawa's 3 game winning streak. The Ducks have actually owned the Senators of late winning 3 games in a row against them. The Ducks are 5-1 in the last 6 meetings in Ottawa as well. As for the Senators they were on the road for their last 2 games and will be looking to finish this game and head right back home for Xmas as they don't play again till next Tuesday. In the Senators we don't see much interest as they are already home for the holidays and are very pleased with themselves following a big road win in Chicago. The first one since 2001. The Ducks beat the Senators once already this year 5-1. Look for more of the same tonight as the Ducks end their 6 game road trip on a positive note.