David Banks
Giants vs. Eagles
Pick: Under 41.5
At 5-4 earlier this season, it appeared that the Eagles might have a pretty good shot at making the postseason. Those days are long gone. The Eagles have not won a game since and are now 5-9. They now face the 10-4 Giants who have all but locked up the first wild card spot in the NFC.
The Giants are coming off a hard-fought 17-6 win over NFC North leader Detroit. Eli Manning was sharp connecting on 20-of-28 passes and threw two touchdowns, one to star WR Odell Beckham Jr. The Eagles secondary, once touted as one of the league’s best, will have a tough time covering the league’s fourth-leading receiver. Beckham has 1,173 yards receiving thus far this season.
New York is somehow able to win games with one of the worst rushing attacks in the NFL. They average just 81.2 yards rushing a game, but a much-improved defense helps them get away with it. The Giants spent upwards of $200 million in the offseason to upgrade a bad defense and it paid off. Head coach Ben McAdoo’s defense in now third in the league in scoring defense giving up just 17.9 points per game. The Giants defense will have to get after Eagles rookie QB Carson Wentz like they did in their first meeting this season. New York sacked Wentz twice and picked him off two times in a 28-23 victory.
Scott Rickenbach
Celtics vs. Pacers
Play: Pacers +1
After allowing a huge game-ending run at New York on Tuesday and losing to the Knicks, the Pacers are fired up to get back on track in what is their last game before Christmas. After tonight's game hosting Boston, Indiana doesn't play again until Monday while the Celtics have a tough match-up with Oklahoma City on deck for tomorrow. Boston enters this game on a 3-game winning streak but they are 5-9 SU this season when they are off of a game where they scored 105 points or more. The Pacers are off of the aforementioned tough loss at New York, but they are now back home where they are a fantastic 11-4 SU this season. Look for the Indiana D to respond. Before allowing 50% to the Knicks Tuesday, the Pacers had held their last 5 opponents to just 40.3% from the field. The Celtics are off of a rare strong defensive effort because, before holding Memphis to just 40.4% on Tuesday, they had allowed 3 of their last 4 opponents to connect on 49.4% or better from the field!
Jimmy Boyd
Spurs vs. Clippers
Play: Under 204
Two of the NBA's best will square off in a nationally televised game on TNT tonight, as the Spurs (23-5) visit the Clippers (21-8 ). I look for the energy to be a max for both sides and I think the value here is clearly on this one going UNDER the total. These are two of the leagues best defensive teams. San Antonio ranks 4th in defensive efficiency and Los Angeles is right behind them in 5th. Both also don't play at a blazing pace. The Clippers rank a mere 16th in pace of play and the Spurs are way back at 26th.
These two teams did play back in early November, which the Clippers won going away 116-92. I think that game finishing with a combined score of 208 has definitely caused the books to inflate this number, as the total for that game was just 198, giving us a full 6-points more to work with in the rematch. Key thing here is the Clippers are now without Blake Griffin and he was a matchup nightmare for the Spurs in that first meeting, going 13-19 from the field for a game-high 28 points.
UNDER is 11-2 in the Spurs last 13 road games as a favorite of a 3-points or less and 41-19 in their last 60 when they come in having covered the spread in 5 or more consecutive games. UNDER is also 24-9 in the Clippers last 33 home games after scoring 105 or more in their previous game and 9-1 in their last 10 home games when playing a team with a winning road record.
Sean Murphy
Lakers vs. Heat
Play: Over 209
I'll back the 'over' as the Heat honor Shaquille O'Neal in this Thursday night NBA on TNT affair.
I don't expect Miami to face much resistance against a disjointed Lakers defense in this spot. The Heat fell short last time out against Orlando but certainly had no trouble scoring. Defense is another story entirely.
While the Lakers have struggled lately, like the Heat they have also found plenty of success at the offensive end of the floor. They'll certainly be motivated to keep pace, and I don't believe they'll shy away from a track meet in this one.
This may seem like a high posted total given recent meetings in this series. But the two teams' are at much different stages in their progression right now, and I believe the stage is set for an entertaining, high-scoring affair on Thursday night.
Matt Josephs
Yale vs. Temple
Play: Yale +5
Yale has a chance to win this one outright and certainly has been tested on the road. The Bulldogs won at Washington to open up the year and lost by five at Pittsburgh. They have won four straight and it's because of really efficient offense and stifling defense. Now the caliber of opponent has been weak, but this team is in good form right now. Temple has won three of their last five, but they really haven't been that great. The wins were by 5 over NJIT, nine over DePaul and eight over Penn. They were blasted by Nova and lost by three at home to a mediocre GW team. The Owls are a spurt team and can look really good for a few minutes, but then go ice cold offensively. They already beat West Virginia and Florida State but lost to GW and New Hampshire at home. Go figure what you will get. I think Yale can win.
Will Rogers
Boston vs. Indiana
Pick: Indiana
The set-up: The 16-12 Boston Celtics are in Indiana tonight to take on the 15-15 Pacers, looking for a sweep of the team's three-game road trip. The Celtics have won 105-95 at Miami and 112-109 (in OT) at Memphis, with PG Thomas scoring a career high 44 points. The Pacers missed out on a three-game winning streak of their own, by allowing the New York Knicks to shoot 50 percent from the floor in a 118-111 loss on Tuesday at MSG. These teams met back on Nov. 12th here in Indiana, with Boston prevailing 105-99 over a Pacers team playing without Paul George.
Boston: The Celtics’ Thomas (26.6 & 6.0 APG) missed four games with a groin strain (the Celtics lost three of those four) but has returned to lead Boston to three straight wins, scoring 26, 23 and 44 points. His backcourt partner Bradley averages 18.0 & 7.4), while Boston’s two key frontcourt performers, Horford and Crowder, are back from early season injury woes. Free-agent center Horford has been excellent, averaging 15.7-6.8-5.3, while SF Crowder averages 13.3 & 5.2. Boston is a middle-of-the-pack offensive team (104.3 PPG ranks 15th) and a little better than average defensively, allowing 102.5 PPG (10th).
Indiana: The Pacers are led by Paul George (21.8-7.0-3.1) but 6-11 Myles Turner (15.5 & 7.3) is really coming into his own in his second season, while the trade for PG Teague (15.4-4.1-7.3) looks like a smart move. The Pacers have nice balance as well, with forwards Young (11.8 & 6.2) and Miles (11.3 & 3.1) scoring in double digits plus guards Ellis (9.7) and Stuckey (9.5) just miss out. The Pacers are similar offensively to the Celtics, averaging 104.5 PPG (14th) but somewhat worse defensively, allowing 106.2 PPG (23rd).
The pick: The Celtics are 10-7 SU (11-5-1 ATS) on the road this season but this is not a good spot for them. The Pacers are playing with revenge from that earlier home loss (without George) and have gone 11-4 SU at home this year. With this pointspread, a win means a cover for the Pacers. That’s the bet.
Wunderdog
LSU @ Wake Forest
Pick: Under 158
This is the first real road test for LSU as plays its first true road game of the season. The Tigers have won four straight and also are unbeaten at home. However, they haven't played a true road game as their only losses came against Wichita State and VCU at the Battle 4 Atlantis in the Bahamas, scoring 47 and 74 in those contests. The Tigers are a poor free-throw shooting team and are 8-2 UNDER the total on the road. Wake Forest had its three-game winning streak snapped with a 69-65 loss at Xavier on Saturday, sailing UNDER the total by 20 points against a strong defensive team. Five of their six meetings with SEC squads have gone UNDER the total and this total is too high.
Ian Cameron
Flyers vs. Devils
Play: Over 5
My clients and I have been riding New Jersey games Over the total quite a bit of late and this is another chance to do so tonight. The New Jersey Devils have been labelled as being a trap team and a defense only squad for two decades and that is why New Jersey totals have consistently been lower lined games at 5 most of the time like they are here as they face the Philadelphia Flyers tonight. However, the Devils recently got one of their leading goal scorers back from injury with Mike Cammalleri returning a couple weeks ago and in 14 games with him back in the lineup New Jersey is 9-1-4 to the over in their last 14 games with only one of those games falling below 5 total goals scored. They also recently got Taylor Hall back in the lineup to provide even more offense for the Devils. New Jersey is finding more pace and attack in their game and increased effectiveness offensively with Cammalleri and Hall back, but it's also led to a bit of a lack of awareness defensively as New Jersey has given up monster shot totals in recent games surrendering 30+ shots on goal to the opposition in 11 of their last 14 games. New Jersey has allowed 3+ goals in 16 of their last 17 games and neither Cory Schneider nor Keith Kindaid in net have been able to keep the puck out of the net not so much because of weak goal tending but because of a lack of the strong defensive structure we have come to expect from the Devils. They have been struggling to keep pucks out of their own net. On the flip side, Philadelphia is playing the second night of B2B games tonight after a 3-2 shootout win against Washington last night and they are 5-2 to the Over on the second night of B2B’s this season. The Over is 4-0-1 in the last 5 meetings between the Flyers and Devils in New Jersey and 4-1-1 to the Over in the last 6 meetings overall. Trends worth riding tonight
SPORTS WAGERS
PHILADELPHIA +102 over N.Y. Giants
The Giants' stock is soaring after a 17-6 win over the NFC North leading Lions. New York is getting a ton of great press this week. We've heard more than once that they look like they're “built for another run”. We could not disagree more. Eli Manning has been average at best this season. His stat line is ho-hum, which is the same feeling one gets when watching him play. There is just no spark. If not for Odell Beckham Jr. and his ability to catch anything thrown in his general direction, the Giants could very well have lost to the Lions on Sunday. These Giants have largely made their names being the “2” in the 11-2 Cowboys but we’ll attribute that to a couple of crazy division games where you can throw the records out the window. We have not been impressed with many of the Giants' wins this season. They've beat up on the Browns, Bears, Bengals and Rams. They've beat three teams (Cowboys, Ravens and Lions) with a winning record heading into Week 16.
The Eagles have been relegated to the role of the spoiler after coming up just short in a 27-26 loss at Baltimore. There will be no lack of motivation on the Eagles part here with a chance to make life miserable for a division rival in prime time. In their last two trips to Philly, the Giants were outscored 54-7. The Eagles have never treated Eli well, as he's racked up more losses (15) and interceptions (26) against Philly than any other team. One of Carson Wentz's better games this season came in Week 9 in New York against these Giants. The Eagles didn't get the win but Wentz threw for 364 yards against the highly touted Giants' secondary. That was his season high.
The Eagles may have lost out on a chance at the playoffs but they drew the best card on this short holiday week. Once they get this home game out of the way, they get to enjoy an extended holiday break, while the rest of the league dukes it out in the middle of the Christmas rush. We discuss these small road favorites that look way too appealing all of the time and this is another classic example of that. Radio shows, touts and everyone alike is trying to sell you the Giants this week. Beware. The Giants have won eight out of nine and have a shot at the playoffs while the home town Eagles have lost five straight. The Eagles are not done playing football just yet. We saw a ton of fight from the Bears, Chargers, Jags and Bengals, who were all in a similar situation just a week ago. Every one of them had fourth quarter leads and a great chance to win their respective games. The Giants road to the playoffs got a little clearer (and easier) when the Redskins laid an egg on Monday night. This now becomes a must win game for the Giants and that’s an angle that the public loves to feast on. We don’t. It’s an angle we love to fade because we’re almost always getting inflated prices because of it. So, if you’re sold on this one being easy money, think again because it’s not. The Giants are a very mediocre team that has rode a wave of great fortune and positive in-game variances to a great record. The betting line says they’re not legit and we couldn’t agree more. Eagles outright.
SPORTS WAGERS
Idaho +15 over Colorado St.
While the jolly Famous Idaho Potato Bowl, like any other post-season festivity is considered a neutral site, the proximity of this affair in relation to the Vandals creates some form of an edge for the team with the partisan crowd. In other words, since this is being played in the state of Idaho, consider it a home game for the dog. The Vandals played just four games at home this year but they went 3-1 over that span. What we like the most however, is that after opening the year with just two wins in its first five games, the Vandals closed out the year by winning six of their last seven. The first two losses of the Idaho docket are ugly to look at but they also comprise of two road trips to the two teams that played for the Pac-12 North crown in 2016, Washington and Washington State. Idaho was soundly defeated by both in back-to-back weeks but Washington State was at one point undefeated in Pac-12 play and of course the Huskies earned the #4 seed in the College Football Playoff as Pac-12 Champion. Idaho would pick up their third loss two weeks later against Troy, who for most of 2016 was the forerunner for the Sun Belt title. Since then, Idaho won six of their last seven and quietly covered them all. The only straight up loss for the Vandals came against Sun Belt Champion Appalachian State on the road.
The Rams of Colorado State are spotting inflated points here mainly for two reasons. First, they’re a more recognizable Mountain West team and secondly, they soundly defeated New Mexico and two-time defending Mountain West Champion San Diego State in their final two games of the season. However, the Rams’ victory against the Aztecs was a bit of a misnomer, as it can almost be certitude that the Aztecs treated their contest with the Rams as a bye to prepare for their title defense against Wyoming the following week. The game meant squat to the Aztecs and the Rams took it to them but we’re strongly suggesting to not put any weight on that victory over SDSU. When looking at Bowl Games, it is often difficult to get a true read on a team’s credentials and then apply that to an opponent in a different conference that they never see. That said, New Mexico is the only other Mountain West team to play in a Bowl Game thus far (Wyoming plays tonight), and New Mexico didn’t cover in a three-point victory over UTSA. Meanwhile, three teams from the Sun Belt have already played in a Bowl Game (App State, Louisiana Lafayette and Arkansas State) and two were outright winners while ULL was the only loser but lost by just seven. Colorado State’s 7-5 record with close games and loses to some average competition stick out more than their past two victories agaisnt disinterested clubs.
Fourth-year Idaho boss Paul Petrino has a third-year starter at quarterback in Matt Linehan, and together they produced an offense that scored more than 40 points per game in a three-game stretch to close the season. The defense did its part too down the stretch. No matter how you break it down, the Vandals are equipped to make this a fair fight. We often talk about mindset, which has influence on our choice because it matters. In that regard, the home-state Vandals see this as a program-defining moment, while for the Rams it's just a routine bowl assignment in a far-flung postseason outpost against an uninspiring opponent. Idaho can win this one outright thus, we see this as one of the better bets of the Bowl season.
SPORTS WAGERS
Pittsburgh +104 over COLUMBUS
OT included. The San Jose Sharks are first in the Pacific and have lost 12 games in regulation time. Chicago is first in the Central and has dropped nine in regulation time. The Penguins are first in the Metro, they’ve played three more games than Columbus and they have dropped seven games in regulation. The Jackets have five regulation losses all year in 30 games. Everything about this team is legit from their defense to their deep group of forwards. Furthermore, Nationwide Arena will have a playoff atmosphere tonight at this festive time of year with the defending champs in town. A hockey game in Columbus hasn’t drawn this much interest in a very long time and this red-hot host, winners of 10-straight, figures to respond. However, there is also a thing called being “too jacked up” and that could apply here. Instead of staying within themselves, you may see the Jackets wanting this one so badly that the players, individually, will be trying to do too much. The Jackets are simply not used to this type of attention and now the spotlight has never been brighter. Even if the Jackets play their usual strong game, it might not be enough because this type of atmosphere and game also fires up the opposition.
Fired up, Pittsburgh is not the team you want to bet against. The Penguins are a well-oiled machine that just keeps their relentless attack coming. They’re used to this type of atmosphere and they usually thrive in it. The Penguins lead the league in scoring chances with 895. The closest team to them, and it’s not Columbus, is 100 behind at 795. That brings us to goaltending. We’ve heard some so called “experts” call Sergei Bobrovsky the league’s best goaltender this year or at least in the discussion along with Carey Price and Devan Dubnyk. The problem is, they don’t watch the games; they only see the results. We watch closely, very closely and to suggest that Bobrovsky is in Price’s and Dubnyk’s class is pure lunacy. There is however, a goaltender in this matchup that is close to being in that pair’s class and he plays for the Penguins. In a hugely hyped game between two contenders, give us the better goaltender, the better team and throw in a tag and we know exactly what to do.
Carolina +100 over BUFFALO
OT included. While the Sabres have picked up points in eight of their last 10 games, they have fallen behind 2-0 in four of their last five games and that is playing with fire. Furthermore, the Sabres have created the second fewest scoring chances in the NHL and that’s a huge problem when playing the Hurricanes. While we like Buffalo as an undervalued team, they are not good enough to be favored against Carolina, the most continually undervalued team in the NHL and it’s not even close.
We’re not sure people understand or realize just how good these ‘Canes are. They were competitive and difficult to beat last year but they’re so much better this year. The Hurricanes problems last year were an offensively challenged offense with weak goaltending. This year, that offense is much improved and getting better. The Teuvo Teravainen/Lee Stempniak/Sebastion Aho line has been on fire recently. They create chaos in the offensive end. Carolina has 11 players with double digits in points. That doesn’t include Viktor Stalberg or Elias Lindholm. Derek Ryan is a rookie that few know about that has 12 points in 18 games since being called up. The kid has terrific sense and he’s wickedly talented too. Carolina has allowed the fewest shots on net in the league. Rarely do they allow more than 26 shots on net. They are a monster puck possession team that has more face-offs in the offensive end than any team in the league. In other words, no team starts in the offensive end more than Carolina. They are also ranked #1 in the league in penalty killing and 8th on the power-play. This is an upper echelon team that is not close to being priced like one and we MUST continue to try and take advantage.
Power Sports
Golden State vs. Detroit
Pick: Detroit
The Pistons have now lost four in a row, all by double digits (0-4 ATS), and drawn the ire of HC Stan Van Gundy in the process. Few will give them any kind of realistic shot in this one, but they're better than what they've shown recently. This still grades out as a rather average team and this is a ton points to be getting at home. Think of them as a stock. Right now would be a good opportunity to "buy low." Despite the losing record, Detroit has still managed to outscore its opponents.
This is a really awful spot from Golden State's perspective too; and a rare chance to fade them. Not only is the second game of a back to back, on the road, but they'll likely be caught looking ahead to the X-Mas Day game in Cleveland. Playing without rest this season, the Warriors are just 2-4 ATS.
Dave Price
Indiana Pacers +1.5
The Indiana Pacers have been very good at home this season with an 11-4 record. They are playing much better defense of late in holding their last 5 opponents to 102.0 points per game on 43.7% shooting. They have been almost unbeatable at home when star Paul George plays. The Pacers are 9-1 at home with George in the lineup. Indiana is 15-5 ATS in home games when revenging a same-season loss vs. opponent over the last 2 seasons.
Brandon Lee
Pacers +1.5
I'll gladly back Indiana at home as a dog against the Celtics. The Pacers are 11-4 at home this season, as they have simply been a completely different team at Bankers Life Fieldhouse compare to on the road (4-11). Of their 4 home losses, 3 have come with leading scorer Paul George sidelined, including a 99-105 loss to Boston. They are 9-1 at home when George plays and we are catching them as a dog here against a team that they are going to want revenge against. Note that this has been an ideal spot to back Indiana, as they have covered 15 of their last 20 at home when playing with revenge.
Ken Lowden
Giants vs. Eagles
Play: Giants -1½
The Philadelphia Eagles are (2-9) in their last 11 games overall and have lost their last 5 games in a row. New York is (8-1) in their last 9 games. Philadelphia beat the Pittsburgh Steelers 34-3 all the way back in Week 3 this season, in Philadelphia. This is the game that is skewing the spread today. Because of that game, the Eagles home win margin is +8.5, when it should be that high if you look at what they have done since that game, it has been terrible. The New York Giants are a much better football team than the Philadelphia Eagles and they will show that tonight as they go into Philadelphia and beat the Eagles by more than 2 points.