Free Picks for Thursday, December 29th, 20166 from some of the nations best and worst handicappers.
DAVE COKIN
RUINS VS. SABRES
PLAY: BRUINS -130
Boston is actually playing a lot better than their recent record indicates. They’ve been more victims than anything else, and I have no problem with their form. Boston absolutely should have won against the Blue Jackets in their first game out of the holiday break but got unlucky again. Now the Bruins move into their best role though, as they’re 10-4 with rest off a loss and Tuukka Rask has generally owned the Sabres.
Buffalo is treating this like a critical game, which it actually is, but fact is the Sabres just haven’t won these types. Buffalo had also lost four straight prior to beating Detroit, and they were outplayed by a big margin in that game. So it’s not like the Sabres are in razor sharp form right now.
Worth noting that if this goes past regulation, the Bruins have a clear advantage as the Sabres have lost eight times in that scenario compared to just four for Boston. It’s what I feel is a big game for both teams as this is the first part of a home and home duel. I’ll lay the reasonable price with the Bruins.
Jim Feist
Thunder vs. Grizzlies
Play: Under 199½
Oklahoma City plays its best offense at home, at 20-7 under the total on the road against a team with a home winning percentage of greater than .600. Memphis is a strong defensive team, #3 in the NBA in points allowed, #4 in field goal shooting defense. Memphis is 13-3 under the total at home and the Under is 10-4 in the Grizzlies last 14 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
Teddy Covers
Oklahoma State vs. Colorado
Play: Oklahoma State +3
Let me start by giving Colorado credit, before I make the case for betting against the Buffs in the Alamo Bowl. The Buffs had gone 11-38 SU over the previous four seasons heading into the 2016 campaign. Their last bowl appearance came back in 2007 against Alabama, in Nick Saban’s first year on the job with the Crimson Tide.
But head coach Mike MacIntyre – the architect of a significant program turnaround at San Jose State – did it again with the Buffs this season, guiding Colorado to a 10-3 record, both SU and ATS. That 10-3 ATS mark was tied for the second best pointspread record in the country – for most of the season Colorado was an undervalued commodity.
That being said, no Colorado player has been to a bowl game before. MacIntyre deserves serious ‘Coach of the Year’ consideration, but the biggest bowl game he’s coached at the collegiate level was the Military Bowl against Bowling Green in his stint at San Jose State. Colorado did not execute well in their biggest game this year, a blowout loss to Washington in the PAC-12 title game. And it’s surely worth noting that both of Colorado’s previous losses this season came against teams with offensive playmakers, Michigan and USC.
Colorado’s offense can only be described as ‘pedestrian’. Senior QB Sefo Liufau has battled injuries, throwing only eleven touchdowns in his senior season. RB Philip Lindsay is a workhorse, not a gamebreaker. No receiver had more than 850 receiving yards and top WR playmaker Shay Fields had only two catches longer than 30 yards in his last ten games. This team relies on their defense to stay in games, but that defense is likely to be challenged here!
Oklahoma State has the type of offensive playmakers that the Buffs defense has struggled to stop. QB Mason Rudolph has an NFL future, with an impressive 25-4 TD-INT ratio while averaging a full nine yards per pass attempt for the season. RB’s Justice Hill and Chris Carson have combined to average just shy of six yards per carry, while WR James Washington is drawing Cowboy alumnus Dez Bryant comparisons for his downfield playmaking ability, averaging a whopping 19.5 yards per catch. Jalen McCleskey, Jhajuan Seales and Chris Lacy caught 13 TD’s between them as well, a deep and dynamic receiving corps!
Unlike the bowl virgins from Boulder, Mike Gundy’s Cowboys will be playing in their 11th consecutive bowl game. The Cowboys got thumped 48-20 by Ole Miss in the Sugar Bowl last year, an ugly and embarrassing New Year’s Day defeat. From all indications, the Cowboys have redemption on their minds and some giddy-up in their step, facing a team they can beat this time around!
Brandon Shively
Arkansas vs. Virginia Tech
Pick: Arkansas
Arkansas was an inconsistent team this year, but it appears they are ready for this Bowl Game on Thursday. The Razorbacks said their senior linebacker, Dre Greenlaw, is going to be available. Greenlaw was their best linebacker before getting injured early in the season. Also, 5th year senior running back, Kody Walker, appears he is going to play. These guys are added bonuses, but it also tells me the team wants to win this game.
Arkansas has developed a nice passing game this year and they have the receivers to break away from the Hokies secondary. Arkansas still does a great job of taking time off the clock, ranking 2nd in time of possession this year and can keep the ball away from the Virginia Tech offense.
Arkansas hasn’t lost two consecutive games this year. They are coming off a season ending loss at Missouri. They have been able to rebound off a loss every time and I think they can do it again here. Arkansas has won their last 3 bowl games. Virginia Tech lost their bowl game last year as a favorite against Tulsa. Virginia Tech also might not be as excited for this game after losing the ACC Championship game to Clemson.
Arkansas’s defense is down a bit this year, but they have talented defensive players with a lot of experience. I think they are better than what the statistics show this year and it will show in this game. The Hogs have their work cut out containing Hokies quarterback Jerod Evans, but I think this game comes down to the wire, decided by 3-4 points.
Jason Sharpe
Arkansas (+7) over Virginia Tech
Tough spot and number to cover here for Virginia Tech. The Hokies come in off a hard-fought defeat in the ACC Championship Game versus Clemson. Might be difficult for them to get excited for this game here against a 7-5 Arkansas team. VT has covered just 2 of their last 6 games they've been favored in coming into this contest. The Razorbacks should be motivated in this one as they lost their regular-season finale to Missouri in a game where they led throughout most of that contest. That loss left a bitter taste in the Razorbacks mouths. Their physical style of play can be tough for teams late in the season, and Arkansas' 2-0 bowl record under head coach Bret Bielema is evidence of that as they easily won both of their bowl games each by over 3 touchdowns. Take Arkansas plus the points here.
Jack Jones
6Oklahoma St vs. Colorado
Play: Colorado -3
Certainly both teams are coming off deflating losses with conference championships at stake. So you have to try and figure out which team will be more motivated to be playing in this ‘lesser’ bowl game. And I think it’s pretty clear to see that Colorado will be the more motivated team.
The Buffaloes will be going to their first bowl game since 2007. It’s been nearly a decade since their last bowl game, so they will be excited to be here either way. In fact, if you would have given them a No. 10 ranking and 10 wins coming into the season, they would have taken it. So I don’t think they are disappointed at all that they’re not going to the Rose Bowl, which is where they would have been if they beat Washington.
Conversely, Oklahoma State is used to going to bowl games. It will be thoroughly disappointed that it fell just short of winning the Big 12 with a loss to Oklahoma in the season finale. The Cowboys would much rather be playing in the Sugar Bowl like Oklahoma is. They will be less motivated than Colorado as a result.
And just strictly from a matchup standpoint, I like Colorado as well. They have the better defense and it’s not really even close. The Buffaloes only allow 20.5 points, 327 yards per game and 4.7 yards per play this season. The Cowboys give up 28.1 points, 457 yards per game and 6.0 yards per play on the year.
One thing that is getting overlooked here is Colorado senior quarterback Sefo Liufau. The Buffaloes went 10-3 this season, but in all three of their losses, Liufau was injured and didn’t play the whole game. Those losses came to Michigan, USC and Washington, which are three of the top teams in the country. And the Buffaloes gave both USC and Michigan runs for their money. The loss to Washington was a bit fluky because the Buffaloes just gave that game away with turnovers.
Oklahoma State relies heavily on its passing attack, which averages 322 yards per game. Well, Colorado has one of the best pass defenses in the country. The Buffaloes only allow 47.9% completions, 181 passing yards per game and 5.4 yards per attempt to opposing quarterbacks. They also rank 7th nationally with 26 takeaways. There is NFL talent all over this secondary, and they have the goods to stop Mason Rudolph.
While these teams have similar records, the one thing that can't be argued is that Colorado played the much tougher schedule. The Buffaloes faced the 8th-toughest schedule in the country, while the Cowboys faced the 61st. I think the Cowboys get exposed here just as they did last year in their 20-48 loss to Ole Miss in the Sugar Bowl.
The Buffaloes are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 games overall. Colorado is 7-2 ATS in its last nine vs. a team with a winning record. I think the Buffaloes come into the bowl season still undervalued because they didn’t look good in that loss to Washington, which was the only game they didn’t look good all season. They will get back on track with a big effort against the Cowboys here.
Matt Josephs
William & Mary vs. Old Dominion
Play: William & Mary +7
Two old rivals play in Norfolk with ODU hosting William and Mary. The Tribe bring the better offense but the Monarchs dominate on defense. ODU is holding teams to 56.4 points per game, but they are only 7-4 because they are averaging just under 60 points. They have the size advantage, but the more creative scorers are on the road team with Daniel Dixon and Omar Prewitt. This has been a close series especially in Norfolk where the Monarchs have covered just over half of their last 17 games. To me, this is just a few too many points and I'll take the better offense.
Larry Ness
Philadelphia vs. Utah
Pick: Utah
The 7-23 Philadelphia 76ers own the NBA's worst record and will be in Salt Lake City tonight to take on the surprising Utah Jazz. Despite key players missing time so far, the Jazz are 19-13 on the season and challenging the OKC Thunder in the NBA's Northwest Division (Thunder are 20-12,just one game better than the Jazz).
Utah's Starting point PG George Hill (20.2-4.2 APG) could return to the starting lineup for the Jazz when they host the Philadelphia 76ers on Thursday night. Hill has missed 13 games while recovering from a sprained toe but he practiced on Monday. Alec Burks practiced as well, although there's no timetable for his return. Burks has not played this season after having off-season ankle surgery (13.3 PPG in 31 games last year). Hayward (22.4-6.2-3.8 ) has developed into one of the league's best small forwards, while SG Hood (14.2) has been a solid contributor plus center Gobert averages 12.4 PPG and 11.9 RPG, after delivering his 11th straight double-double with 12 points and 11 rebounds on Tuesday. Then there is PF Favors, who is just rounding into form (17 games / 10 starts), after early injury woes. He's averaging a modest 8.8 & 5.6 but the last two seasons, he's posted averages of 16.4-8.1 and 16.0-8.2.
Utah has allowed 100 points or more in three of its last four but on the season, leads the NBA in fewest points allowed (95.3 PPG), while owning its second-best opponents' FG percentage (43.0%). The 76ers rank 26th in points scored (98.7 PPG) and will play this game without Embiid.
Power Sports
Philadelphia vs. Utah
Pick: Utah
Last month, we saw the Jazz go to Philly and record a blowout win, 109-84 as short 4.5-pt chalk. They held the Sixers to 40% shooting for the game. Given we're talking about a top four team in defensive efficiency (Utah) and by far the least efficient offensive team in the league (Philly), the same matchup problems will persist for the big road dog here. By the way, Philadelphia has lost (straight up) the last 38 times its has been a road dog of +12.5 or more!
Utah was barely able to get by the Lakers Tuesday night (won by only 2), but at least they snapped a three-game losing streak. They are finally starting to get healthy as well. There is even a chance that George Hill may return here, which would be a big boost. Meanwhile, the Sixers will be w/o Joel Embid (rest), who happens to lead the team in points, rebounds and blocked shots. So, yeah, he's pretty important. The team is 2-7 SU w/ Embid out of the lineup. The worst team in the league going on the road w/o its best player is a recipe for disaster.
Harry Bondi
South Florida / South Carolina Over 61.5
South Florida has all the ingredients of an “over” team with a high-powered offense, led by underrated QB Quinton Flowers, and leaky defense, so we won’t shy away from going over the total here today. The Bulls are 9-3 to the over this season and in the three instances they went under the games averaged a total of 62 points. The Gamecocks offense struggled against the tough defenses in the SEC, but in non-conference play they put up an average of over 30 points per game.
David Banks
Oklahoma St vs. Colorado
Pick: Colorado -3
The best turnaround in all of FBS football will take on one of the biggest surprises in the Big 12 this season in the Valero Alamo Bowl on Thursday night. Colorado, which finished 10-3 just a year after going 4-8, will match up against the very explosive Cowboys of Oklahoma State. Head coach Mike Gundy's Cowboys could have won the Big 12 with a win over Oklahoma in the final week of the regular season, but Oklahoma State fell 38-20.
Gundy and the Cowboys could have made an even bigger splash had they not suffered a controversial loss to Central Michigan early in the season. The only other loss was a 35-24 defeat at the hands of Baylor. OSU's loss is the Valero Alamo Bowl's gain as the Cowboys are one of the nation's most productive offenses. Quarterback Mason Rudolph has thrown for 3,777 yards and 25 touchdowns. Justice Hill is the team's leading rusher with 1,042 yards and WR James Washington has 1,209 yards receiving.
Their opponents have transformed themselves back into a national power. The Buffaloes were a dominant power in the early 1990s, but drifted into mediocrity for a long time. Head coach Mike MacIntyre has brought the program back by doing two things - running the football and playing great defense. Running back Philip Lindsay leads the ground attack with 1,189 yards and 16 touchdowns. Colorado's defense is 18th nationally in scoring defense giving up just 20.5 points per game. Both Buffaloes and the Cowboys can score in bunches; it will be up to one of the defenses to make key stop.
Ben Burns
Capitals -201
This should be a mismatch. The Caps are 12-5 at home, outscoring teams by a 2.8 to 1.8 margin here. The Devils are 4-17 on the road. The Devils are 4-17 on the road, getting outscored by a 3.3 to 2.0 margin. The Devils are 3-13 against winning teams, 33-63 the past 2+ seasons; the Caps are 12-4 against losing teams, 65-31 the past 2+ seasons. They were laying -260 the last time the teams played here and could easily be more expensive again tonight.
SPORTS WAGERS
South Carolina +10½ over South Florida
What we have here is the 10-2 South Florida Bulls spotting inflated points to the Gamecocks because South Carolina ended up with a 6-6 record. Results matter, records matter but what a lot of these Bowl Games feature is one team with skewed numbers based on quality of competition against a team with weaker numbers but having played a much tougher slate of games. South Florida played three legit teams this year, Temple, Florida State and Navy. Against Navy, USF won 52-45 but could just have easily lost that one. Against Temple, the Bulls lost by 16 and against Florida State, the Bulls lost by 20. The rest of USF’s slate featured games against marshmallows so the big offensive numbers that the Bulls put up are NOT legit. Bulls QB Quintin Flowers is a very good QB and this offense can move the chains but not in the way they are projected to do here. There are other intangibles working against the Bulls too.
The Bulls don't have their head coach (Willie Taggart), who left for Oregon. Interim coaches in bowl games have a horrible ATS recored over the years when favored. On the other side, you have as good of a defensive mind as there is in college football in Will Muschamp, who has had a month to prepare for an offense that might not be very motivated. South Carolina gives up only 73 yards passing a game and they did so against some pretty sweet offenses that included Tennessee, Clemson, Florida and Texas A&M. The Gamecocks surrendered just 21, 20 and 24 points against Tennessee, Florida and A&M respectively and we guarantee that the Bulls offense will not be as complex. South Carolina began the season as a young, inexperienced team but has developed nicely over the course of the year. The Gamecocks have emerging triplets in true frosh quarterback Jake Bentley, true frosh running back Rico Dowdle and sophomore wide receiver Deebo Samuel. Perhaps most importantly is that South Carolina will come into this game with a huge chip on its shoulder because of the disrespect they are being shown in the betting line, being that they’re a Group of 5 conference team that’s a double-digit dog.
Virginia Tech -7 over Arkansas
The Razorbacks have had the epitome of a Helter Skelter season. This is a football team that entered 2016 with the anticipation and expectation of being an impact player in the SEC West race under the leadership of Coach Brett Bielema. The Hogs have been the subject of admiration and praise by many pundits and analysts for several seasons now but we’re still waiting for the Razorbacks to take that stride to the next level as prognostications have been better than the disappointing results. Arkansas got off to three straight wins against Lousiana Tech, TCU and Texas State. In retrospect, two of these wins bare little significance, as TCU is in rare but poor form compared to years’ past and Texas State is a Sun Belt cupcake. The Louisiana Tech win may have some validity to some but not to us, as Arkansas was a 21-point favorite and the Hogs barely escaped with their life, as they only scored 21 and won by a single point, 21-20.
In games of consequence, Arkansas is 1-4. When we say games of consequence, we are referring to match-ups that had a direct effect on the SEC West race and Arkansas’ overall season outlook as a whole. The Hogs were ransacked by Texas A&M, Auburn, LSU and Alabama. In each of these games, the Razorbacks were overvalued, short-priced pooches and subsequently went 0-4 ATS and lost by no less than 19 points against any of those aforementioned four opponents. The Hogs most impressive feat this season was their 31-10 win over Florida as a marginal home dog but when you scrutinize the Gators team Arkansas was facing, such an outcome is not shocking by any means be that the SEC East as a whole is far weaker compared to what we normally see. Arkansas owns a hideous loss to cap off their season at Missouri where they were expected to win soundly. Arkansas barely escaped Mississippi and Mississippi State to round off their docket of wins. Notably, Mississippi State and Mississippi finished with seven losses each this season.
The Hokies of Virginia Tech can be categorized on the same level of a LSU or Auburn in terms of caliber of competition for this Arkansas bunch. The price actually reflects the level of quality here and it is not free points being given away as a value commodity option on the Hogs. Virginia Tech is the runner-up for the ACC crown and they took the #2 team in the country, Clemson the distance in a 52-45 slugfest. This is a Hokies football team that features some dynamic playmakers in quarterback Jerod Evans and stand-out wide receiver Isaiah Ford. Evans can hurt you with his arm or with his feet. When facing quarterbacks that resemble Evans in terms of style and ability, the results for Arkansas speak for themselves, as Jalen Hurts of Alabama, Trevor Knight of Texas A&M and Kenny Hill of TCU were all able to run loose on this 93rd ranked rushing defense. In addition, run/pass option quarterbacks such as these three were able to scoot for two rushing touchdowns each against the Hogs while throwing for six passing touchdowns combined and just one interception. Evans will undoubtedly have an opportunity to exploit this flaw and perhaps do so with greater proficiency than any of the other previous three we just mentioned.
You are going to read all about Brett Bielema’s past coaching success and the experience he brings to these Bowl games after many years at Wisconsin. While all that is true, Va Tech Coach Justin Fuente is rapidly climbing the most trusted head coaches list and the latter has the better team. Seven points may seem like a lot to give to a Hogs’ team that can run the ball but Arkansas has proven nothing yet other than they usually get smoked against strong competition. The Hokies are strong and will have a solid partisan crowd too.
Note: If you have an account at SportsInteraction, the recommendation would be to bet it now at normal juice. Our best guess is that the line will settle everywhere with normal juice (-110 or less) so you might want to wait until later in the day to make this wager.
Colorado -3 over Oklahoma St
The Valero Alamo Bowl features a collision of runner-up teams for their respective conferences when the #12 Oklahoma State Cowboys of the Big 12 square off with the #10 Colorado Buffaloes of the Pac-12 Conference. For both teams, they enter on rather ghastly notions. The Pokes were beaten soundly by their arch-rival Oklahoma in Norman in what was called a defacto Big 12 Championship Game, while the Buffs were absolutely dominated by the Washington Huskies in the Pac-12 Championship Game in Santa Clara, California. These two teams have not met in seven years but over a span of thirteen years from 1994 to 2007, the Pokes and Buffs met on 10 occasions when Colorado was still an active member of the Big 12 before packing up and heading west in hopes of finding gold in the Pac-12.
However, a lot has changed since Colorado has moved onward. The Buffaloes have lost four of their previous five bowl games while as a Big 12 constituent. In their preceding two bowl excursions, the Black and Gold more or less hobbled into lower-tier games and were soundly beaten. Over the last 10 years in specific, the Buffaloes have not even had a winning season even if the bowl game was tossed in the mix, as their best mark was 2007 when they finished 6-7 after losing to Alabama in the Independence Bowl. This is an outfit that reached an all-time low in 2011 when CU won just one game under the captainship of Jon Embree. The Buffalos have gone through several coaches while incumbent general Mike McIntyre undoubtedly entered his fourth season on the hot seat this year, as Boulder was long awaiting a renaissance in their football program. McIntyre can keep his job and with a win in this bowl game he could be the architect of one of the biggest turnarounds in college football in just one season. Another factor worth considering is that the Buffs are really excited and thrilled to be in this game.
For Oklahoma State, Mike Gundy has brought the Pokes to a level of prominence where the expectations of success are beginning to balloon. It is no longer a question of how many games can Oklahoma State win but rather when are the Cowboys going to win the Big 12? For several years now, Oklahoma State has emerged as a figure that many analysts have been keen on as a contender for the conference credentials. However, the Pokes have found ways to flounder when the opportunity presented itself to emerge on the next level. Last year, Oklahoma State was taken down on their own turf by Baylor when they had the full capability and opportunity to beat the Bears and earn an inside track to the Big 12 title. This year, Oklahoma State pretty much destroyed their chances of a College Football Playoff berth when they fell on a Hail Mary to Central Michigan at home this year. While the circumstances surrounding that scenario may have been controversial, the Pokes allowed CMU to hang around where such an event could materialize. The point we are trying to make here is that Oklahoma State finds ways to choke. They live and die by their offense while their defense is relatively non-existent as it has surrendered 30 points or more in eight games this season.
Even with the mishap against Washington, the Buffaloes own the 19th ranked defense in all of America and they are complemented by an efficient balanced attack on offense. The Buffaloes have a bull running the ball for them in Phillip Lindsay who has found pay dirt on 17 occasions this season while compiling over 1,100 rushing yards. Furthermore, Colorado is plus 118 yards per game versus the league’s fourth-hardest schedule, while Oklahoma State is minus -35 yards per game versus the 46th-toughest slate. That matters and it sure doesn’t hurt that the Pokes will face the toughest defense that they have seen all year. Lastly, Oklahoma State’s dreams of relevance ended with a bad loss to Oklahoma in the final week and it now has a postseason commute instead of a destination. Swallow the points.
Jimmy Boyd
Arkansas vs. Virginia Tech
Play: Arkansas +7
I think we are getting some great value here with the Razorbacks catching a touchdown. Going 3-5 in the SEC, especially the West Division, is nothing to hang your head on. That along with an ugly 24-28 loss at a bad Missouri team to end the year, has Arkansas getting no respect in this game. Not only do I think the Razorbacks can keep it close enough to cover, I like them to win outright.
This is a tough spot for the Hokies. It’s a lot harder than people think for these Power 5 teams who lose in the title game to get emotionally invested in their bowl game. Just look at last year’s ACC title game loser in North Carolina. The Tar Heels had won 11 straight before a narrow 8-point loss to Clemson in the ACC Championship. They followed that up with a 38-49 loss to Baylor in this exact same bowl. Keep in mind that the Bears were down to a 3rd string quarterback.
Where these teams really seem to not show up is on the defensive side of the ball. Even with a 100% focus on Arkansas, I think the Hokies defense was in trouble here. The Razorbacks are a better offensive team than they get credit for. All you have to do is look at their game against Alabama. They put up 30 points and over 473 yards of total offense against that elite Crimson Tide defense.
Defensively there are some concerns with Arkansas, there’s no denying that. However, I think Bielema can devise up a game plan to slow down the Hokies offense. Arkansas knows how to dominate time of possession and will do just that against Virginia Tech.
Razorbacks are 6-0 ATS over the last 3 seasons when playing with 2 or more weeks of rest and 10-2 ATS in their last 12 against strong passing teams, averaging 8 or more yards per pass attempt. Hokies are 3-7-1 ATS in their last 11 games on a neutral site and 1-5 ATS in their last 6 against the SEC.