Scott Rickenbach
Thunder vs. Grizzlies
Play: Thunder +2
The Thunder enter this game having won 4 straight. From a scheduling standpoint this situation favors Oklahoma City as they have not had any back to back spots in 2 weeks and this will be just their 7th game in the last 15 days. As for the Grizzlies, this is their third game in four nights and they have traveled down to Orlando, up to Boston, and now back home to Memphis all in the past few days. The Grizzlies have lost (and have failed to cover) 5 of their last 7 games. Oklahoma City has not only won each of the past two meetings, the Thunder dominated those games by a combined 55 point margin! OKC is 12-6 (both SU and ATS) this season when they are off of a game where they scored 105 points or more. Look for them to add to that mark here!
Brandon Lee
Lakers -2
The Lakers are showing great value here as a small home favorite against the Mavericks. Los Angeles comes in having gone just 2-13 in their last 15, but have been playing much better of late, which is evident by the fact that they have covered 5 of their last 7. With this being a home game televised on TNT, I expect a great effort here from the Lakers against a Mavericks team that not very good and just 3-14 on the road this season.
Brett Atkins
For South Carolina to have any shot at pulling an upset today against South Florida, they simply must slow Bulls QB Quentin Flowers and the high-powered South Florida offense down. The Bulls have played 9 of their 12 games this season Over the total, but I think this one holds just a smidge Under the total.
Why? Well, USF did lose their head coach Willie Taggart who was the lynch-pin in finding the right mix in making the offense go, go, go.
Then their is South Carolina, as the Gamecocks cannot allow this one to turn into a shootout for them to succeed.
South Carolina is 8-4 Under for the season, and they are 3-0-1 Under their last 4 games played against the AAC.
The Gamecocks have had to deal with their fair share of dual-threat quarterbacks along the lines of Flowers, as they have faced Watson from Clemson, Knight from Texas A&M, Fitzgerald from Miss State, and Dobbs from Tennessee.
Yesterday in bowl play, 3 of the 4 games held Low, as the Under is now 15-10 for the 25 games contested this bowl season.
Let's play the Under in the Birmingham Bowl here on Thursday afternoon.
2* SOUTH FLORIDA-SOUTH CAROLINA UNDER
Anthony Michael
Oklahoma State +3
Both enter off of a loss in their final game to win a conference title but I think the Cowboys will be much more able to come back off of that loss. Oklahoma State has a consistently potent offense while the Colorado offense was very hit or miss on the season. Also the Big 12 appeared to be the better conference than the Pac 12 making Oklahoma State better prepared here. Also have to think a Big 12 team would very much like to take a shot at a former Big 12 team that jumped ship to the Pac 12.
Wunderdog
Dallas @ Los Angeles
Pick: Dallas +2.5
The last few years of the Kobe Bryant era were disgraceful for a Lakers franchise that is used to challenging for championships, not dwelling in the basement. They started the post-Kobe era with a lot of promise at 6-4 to open the season, but things have rapidly gotten away from them, and this young team appears to have lost a lot of confidence. The Lakers are 3-19 since the good start. Dallas has played above the line in their last 17 games at 10-7 ATS, and should be smelling a rare win tonight. Dallas has been the NBA's toughest team off a loss the last five years where they are 100-71-6 ATS, and an even better 54-31-4 ATS if they are playing on the road.
Mark Franco
Colorado vs. Oklahoma St.
Play: Oklahoma St +3
Two former Big 12/Eight rivals clash in the 25th Alamo Bowl when No. 13 Oklahoma takes on No. 11 Colorado on Dec. 29 in San Antonio. Before Colorado jumped to the Pac-12 Conference in 2011, the programs met 46 times between 1920 and 2009 with the Buffaloes holding a 26-19-1 advantage. The Cowboys, however, won three of the last four meetings and emerged victorious in eight of their last nine contests overall against Pac-12 foes. Oklahoma State started the season 2-2 but proceeded to reel off seven straight victories - including double-digit wins over nationally ranked Texas and West Virginia - to set up a de facto Big 12 championship game Dec. 3 at Oklahoma. The game was tied at 17 at halftime, but the No. 7 Sooners owned the second half, outscoring the Cowboys 21-3 to cap their undefeated run through the Big 12 and send Oklahoma State into a month of bowl prep on a down note. This will be the Cowboys’ 11th straight bowl appearance under Gundy, the former Oklahoma State quarterback, and it is also the program’s fourth overall appearance in the Alamo Bowl with the last one coming in 2010 (a 36-10 victory over Arizona). In quarterback Mason Rudolph (3,777 yards, 25 touchdown passes), running back Justice Hill (187 carries, 1,042 yards, five TDs) and wide receiver James Washington (62 catches, 1,209 yards, nine TDs), the Cowboys are one of six FBS teams with a 3,500-yard passer, 1,000-yard rusher and 1,000-yard receiver, and are averaging 492.1 yards (17th nationally) and 38.7 points (19th) per game. Cowboys are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 games after accumulating more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game. Buffaloes are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games in December.
Brad Wilton
Interested in taking the points they are giving in the Belk Bowl today, as Arkansas gives up the points, but they can also score the points - 29 points per game average - with quarterback Austin Allen finishing both second in the SEC in passing yards and touchdown passes.
Considering the Hokies defense has been like a "yo-yo:, 6 times this year they allowed 30 points or better, it seems wise to grab the points they are giving with the Razorbacks.
Arkansas brings in a 13-6 dog spread mark the past 3 seasons under Coach Bielema, and the Hogs have won and covered their last pair of bowl games under Bielema as well. Compare that with Tech's money-burning 1-4 spread mark their last 5 when laying points, and there is another argument that can be made for grabbing the points.
Finally, how about the fact underdogs this bowl season are now 19-6 with dog covers in 15 of the last 17 bowls the past couple of days.
Hard to buck the money-making dog trends listed, so take Arkansas plus the points today in Charlotte.
4* ARKANSAS
Bryan Leonard
Arkansas vs Virginia Tech
Play: Arkansas +7
Too many points to give a quality SEC squad here. Over the last four regular season games the Razorbacks own a +10 explosive play edge over the Hokies. We thought the line came out too high at the opening number of 6 1/2, now we are seeing 7's across the board. Sizable favorites have not done well this bowl season and we expect another toughdown favorite to fail here. The Razorbacks can take this one outright.
Carmine Bianco
Toronto Maple at Tampa Bay
Play: Tampa Bay -133
Before the Leafs went on this road trip i stated that they had a very good shot at winning at least 3 of the 4 and they won their third last night in a shootout against Florida but I'm betting against them tonight with a Lightning side that's won three straight at home including a comeback win against Montreal last night combined with the fact the Leafs will start call up Bibeau of the Toronto Marlies in net.
Executive Sports
Evansville at Illinois State
Play: Illinois State -7
Missouri Valley Conference opener for these 2 teams. Illinois St has won 4 of their past 5 games and 7 of their past 9. Evansville has won their past 7 in a row. Illinois St has been winning by protecting the rock with only 10 turnovers in each of their past 4 games. Their defense has been doing the job by holding their opponents to only 33% average from the field in their past 5 games.
Bob Valentino
In a clash of struggling clubs, my free winner has to be on the Los Angeles Lakers, over the visiting Dallas Mavericks.
Though Los Angeles (12-23) has lost five of its last six and 13 of 15 games in December - including Tuesday's 102-100 loss at home to the Utah Jazz - I like the Lakers to use this spot to rebound against an even weaker Mavs team.
The Mavericks (9-23) arrive having lost their last two, including Tuesday night's tough and emotional setback to Houston,123-107. Eight technicals and two flagrant fouls were called, and I honestly don't know if the Mavs are ready 48 hours later.
The Mavericks have the worst record in the Western Conference, and come in with a disappointing 3-14 mark on the road.
I'll lay the cheap number with the home team in this one.
4* LAKERS
DAVE PRICE
Los Angeles Lakers -2
I think this is a pretty cheap price for the Los Angeles Lakers tonight at home against the Dallas Mavericks. The Lakers have been respectable at home this season, going 7-8 straight up while sitting dead even in point differential with their opponents. And now they face one of the worst teams in the NBA and should be able to handle this point spread margin. The Mavs are 9-23 overall, including 3-14 in road games where they are losing by nearly 10 points per game on average away from home. I also think the Lakers play with a chip on their shoulder tonight to try and end an 11-game series losing streak to the Mavs.
MIKE ANTHONY
Oklahoma St vs. Colorado
Play: Oklahoma St +3
The Oklahoma State Cowboys are never afraid to bring it on the line - terrifying opponents - Tralund Webber and Vincent Taylor have been firing the gaps with a mean desire - and the DBs don't quit, they have been getting them tight contested coverage on the defensive side of the ball as well. The Oline of Colorado should be concerned. Colorado just doesn't seem to have the guys that can make the big time plays when their Coach Mike MacIntyre, needs them to. Shay Fields is a very good WR, but matched up opposite the DBs of Oklahoma State is a real challenge, a challenge that is going to be too much. Cowboys are 4-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record
SPORTS WAGERS
OTTAWA -1½ +193 over Detroit
A couple weeks ago we made a commitment to playing favs spotting 1½-goals as oppose to -½ goal and while it has not paid off yet, it’s not because our team is winning by a goal, it’s because they have lost outright. For those of you that missed it, we’re going to go over the reasoning once more as to why spotting 1½-pucks holds so much more value than taking back a much smaller price spotting a half puck.
You see, in order to win when spotting a half puck, your team has to be up by at least one goal late in the game. If they’re not up one, they are either up two or more, tied or losing outright. If they’re up two or more, the bet has a great opportunity to cash. If they are tied or losing, the bet would lose anyway and if you’re team is up a goal, the opposition will pull the goalie, thus giving us a great chance to add an empty netter and win. About three years ago, then coach of the Colorado Avalanche, Patrick Roy set precedence by pulling his goaltender earlier than it was ever done before and it paid off in the playoffs. Prior, coaches did not pull their goaltender down a goal until there was 90 seconds or less remaining. Well, now all coaches do it once the clock ticks below three minutes, thus allowing us a much larger window to add that empty netter we need should our team be up by one goal. Frankly, there are no bad scenarios when there is under 3 minutes to go when spotting 1½-pucks that makes them more risky than spotting a half puck. You also get about 90 cents on the dollar more.
This wager now becomes all about fading the Red Wings. Detroit is in a really bad spot here and a weak team in a poor spot is usually a good fade. Detroit is coming off the break having lost to Buffalo. They had that emotional ceremony to go through and it should also be noted that there were obligations that required attending the day before. Now Detroit will hit the road for this one single game before they head to Toronto to play in the Winter Classic on Sunday. Detroit will also use their backup goaltender here and it’s not Petr Mrazek or Jimmy Howard. Jared Coreau gets this start and he’ll bring his one game of NHL experience and a .900 save percentage into this one. On their best day, Detroit is beatable. Add in a long injury list and an unfavorable situation in this look-ahead spot and Detroit becomes more beatable. Meanwhile, the Senators are a wickedly talented team that just beat Chicago and Anaheim before the break and should have crushed the Rangers after it.
Boston -1½ +230 over BUFFALO
Only the Arizona Coyotes have fewer wins at home than the Sabres but it goes deeper than that. We wrote about the Sabres woes before their last game in Detroit but we were unaware that there was a ceremony before that game that honored the Red Wings Cup victory way back in 1997. Guys like Brendan Shanahan, Steve Yzerman and many others showed up for a 45-minute ceremony. Current players are standing on the blue-line or in front of their bench the entire time while the visitors are not. Teams’ hosting such an event are almost always flat and thus, Buffalo picked up a rare victory, 4-3 but blew a 3-1 lead and got outshot 43-22. The Sabres won a game they got badly outplayed in but that is nothing new.
Buffalo continues to get outplayed badly on a regular basis. Prior to that lucky victory over Detroit, the Sabres had lost four straight while being outscored 14-5. They are not only getting outscored, outshot and out-chanced, but it is happening by wider margins all the time. The Sabres had given up the first goal in seven straight before Tuesday’s game. They had fallen behind 2-0 in six of its past seven and trust us when we tell you they were not better on Tuesday in a favorable situation. We suggested that Dan Blysma’s plodding system is flat-out unwatchable at times and at that players' instincts are stunted in place of where-should-I-be second thoughts. We also suggested that Buffalo is a good bet to lose a bunch of games by more than one goal and we’re not coming off that stance here.
When Boston pops, which they will soon, look out because they may not look back. Boston went into Columbus on Tuesday and fell behind 3-0 early in the first before tying it up and eventually losing it late, 4-3. Boston outshot Columbus 40-22, out-chanced them, 31-17 and had a large puck possession advantage too. For 65% of that game, the puck was out of Boston’s end but four goals on 22 shots by the Jackets did them in. Buffalo might not score four goals over their next 100 shots.
Hockey can be frustrating to bet on because it is the only sport in which dominating teams lose often but it is also a great sport to bet on because the prices do not reflect the luck factors. Boston continues to be a dominating team in all aspects. No team in the NHL has created more chances than the Bruins (they rank 1st) during 5-on-5 play. They are a top puck possession team that has had horrible luck around the net. The B’s have completely dominated nine of their last 11 opponents including the past seven but have a mere two wins to show for it. That is going to change soon and the B’s could not have handpicked a riper opponent to take their frustrations out on. Hard work pays off and if justice is even close to being served here, the B’s will win 5-1 or somewhere in that neighborhood. Boston plays Buffalo on Saturday afternoon back in Boston and if they don’t cover 1½-pucks here, we are going to run this write-up again on Saturday and subsequently get paid back with some interest thrown in.
ARIZONA +134 over N.Y. Rangers
OT included. The Rangers rallied from a 3-1 deficit to defeat the Senators 4-3 on Tuesday. If you wagered on the Rangers and cashed your ticket, consider it a Christmas gift and if you watched it, you know exactly what we’re referring to. Once again the Rags puck luck was off the charts. The Rangers were outshot 36-25 and the Senators hit four goalposts in the third period alone and seven in the game. Not only did the Sens hit the post but twice in the third period, the puck ricocheted off both goalposts and out. Once again, the Rangers spent most of the night in their own end. Only five teams have fired away fewer shots on net per 60 minutes than the Rangers do when they’re on the road. However, New York somehow manages to emerge victorious despite spending more time in their own end on the road than every team in the league besides Colorado and New Jersey. The Rangers are considered by by most, including experts to be an upper echelon team with Cup aspirations. They’re all wrong. The Rangers are the luckiest team in the NHL but they are no better than teams like Detroit, Florida or the Islanders. In due time, that will be revealed, just like it was last season only this season the Rags are worse.
The Coyotes are getting no credit or attention whatsoever, which is fine with us because the more they lose, the better the prices. Betting lines are based on a team’s record and public perception and in that regard, we get bargain basement prices on Arizona, a team we are paying attention to. Arizona has out-chanced its last three opponents, Edmonton, Dallas and Toronto. Those are three juggernaut offenses but Arizona managed to outshoot and out-chance all three but have nothing to show for it. Slowly but surely the ‘Yotes are rounding into the form that made them a very tough out last year and that had many experts calling for a significant improvement this year. There is such a fine line between winning and losing in this league but Arizona has been on the wrong side of all that “puck luck” that decides so many games. We have no idea what will happen in any game but what we can provide for you more often than not is the team that will have the edge in play and create more scoring chances than the opposition. In the process, we get great value on these teams and that applies here.
SPORTS WAGERS
Neb-Omaha +145 over South Dakota
Now that conference play is underway, most bettors will be looking at games within major and mid-major conferences for their bets but we like to dig a little deeper from time to time to try and find some hidden gems because they offer tremendous value and pay exactly the same as the rest. We trust we found one here in Nebraska-Omaha.
According to Ken Pom, both teams have been on the right side of the coin when it comes to luck but the Mavericks have played a much more difficult schedule compared to South Dakota, as Nebraska-Omaha’s schedule ranks 42nd compared to South Dakota’s who sits at 191st. Yet the only selling points between the two are that the Coyotes have won two more games than the Mavericks and they sit at 6-0 at home this season. We say, "Big deal.
The Mavericks own the most quality win between both combatants this season, as they traveled to Iowa as an 11-point pup to come out on top and beat Iowa soundly on their own court by 11 points. While they may have lost in other contests against Power Conference competition, the Mavericks were never bashful in taking on bigger dogs in the yard even if they themselves are looked upon as one of the little guys. Nebraska-Omaha has also traveled to Pitt, USC, Iowa State and Kansas State and even though it lost, those really tough games prepare you well for games against weaker competition. It is called reaping the rewards of scheduling games you know you are going to lose. The Mavericks will likely come in confident and not be concerned whatsoever about playing on the road because the Mavs have already been there and done that. Of Omaha’s 13 games, nine have been on the road.
South Dakota’s unblemished home record has come at the expense of some rather marginal competition. At home, South Dakota owns victories over Bowling Green, Doane, Presentation College, Montana State, Montana and Sacramento State all in scenarios they were either favored to win or expected to win. We say expected to win because there was no betting line in a bunch of game because the Coyotes were clearly taking advantage of some lower-tier dregs. South Dakota’s true colors are revealed in their losses this season, as they were absolutely obliterated by Gonzaga and Houston by 37 and 27 points respectively. Furthermore, this is a South Dakota outfit that lost to Missouri-Kansas City on the road, a constituent of the beleaguered WAC conference that ranks as one of the weakest in all of college hoops. Nebraska-Omaha is likely the best team that South Dakota will face on its own floor so far this year but it may not even know it. The Mavs have comprehensive experience in playing upper tier teams in hostile environments so there is no reason to conclude that they cannot emerge victorious in this affair. Omaha gets the outright call in this one.