Free Picks for Thursday, December 8th, 2016 from some of the nations best and worst handicappers.
DAVE COKIN
RAIDERS AT CHIEFS
PLAY: RAIDERS +3
Call it a lesson reinforced. I went against the Raiders this past Sunday, and while that play looked great into the third quarter as the Buffalo Bills amassed a 24-9 lead, it sure didn’t end very well. The lesson learned the hard way, and not for the first time in my career, is that stepping in front of an oncoming train is generally not a very good idea.
Analytics might suggest that the Raiders should not be 10-2. Unfortunately, the Raiders don’t give a rat’s behind about those analytics. They just keep winning games, and these last two have been impressive as hell, regardless of any metrics. Oakland allowed 25 straight points in turning a big lead into a likely loss against the Panthers. They got off the canvas, rallied and won the game. Then they had the huge explosion against the Bills last weekend in another game where defeat seemed probable.
The Chiefs are a tough as hell team to beat. They won’t wow many on the eye test, but go ahead and argue against the success they’ve been enjoying going back to the middle of last season. This team knows how to win football games. Andy Reid continues to get what I consider to be the absolute max out of a team that seems ordinary.
As for tonight, I don’t think it’s all that tough to make a case for either team. My lean to Oakland is mostly because they’re getting a field goal in a game I consider to be very much a tossup. I’ll therefore side with the Raiders plus the points, but again, this one won’t be on my card.
GamePlan
Pacific vs. UMass
Play: UMass -8½
This one would seem to be a great spot for the underdog as UMASS is just 4-14 against the spread in their last 18 games at home, but looks can be deceiving. Pacific has been a dreadful team on the road this year as they have won exactly ZERO games away from home and must now fly from California all the way across the country to take on the Minutemen at the Mullins Center.
UMASS gets back star freshman point guard Dejon Jarreau who has been battling a knee problem but is listed as healthy with no limitations this week. Donte Clark also gives UMASS one of the better players in the country that you've never heard of, and they have better athletic talent and far better depth than Pacific. For Pacific, forward Ray Bowles is the only guy who could give UMASS problems, but other than him this is a tough matchup for the Tigers.
UMASS has beaten some tough teams recently including Temple and an underrated Harvard squad, while Pacific has not fared well at all against tougher opposition. Playing in a Tournament in front of their home fans with a potential matchup with Providence looming this weekend, we look for the Minutemen to cover the number here.
Art Aronson
Nuggets vs. Wizards
Play: Wizards -6
It looks like a good spot to pull the trigger on the home side here, as Denver comes into this one disheartened after falling 116-111 in Brooklyn just last night. Washington should be the much “hungrier” side this evening as it’s dropped three of its last four, including a listless 124-116 setback to Orlando at home last time out. Also note that Denver is just 8-11 ATS in its last 19 as an underdog, while Washington is 3-1 ATS in its last four as a home fav in the 3.5 to six points range.
Sean Murphy
Edmonton vs. Philadelphia
Play: Philadelphia -130
Philadelphia has won six games in a row and I don't believe the Oilers are the team to stand in their way here.
Edmonton hasn't been playing its best hockey by any means, dropping its last two contests and five of its last seven games overall. The Oilers will face a tall task in trying to stop a Flyer squad that has gone 9-5-2 at home this season, and comes in playing its best hockey in quite some time.
The Oilers have taken three straight meetings in this series but these two teams haven't met since last March. I look for the red hot Flyers to turn the tide here.
Mike Lundin
Blazers vs. Grizzlies
Play: Grizzlies -130
The Portland Trail Blazers have played decent basketball lately, but this looks like a tough spot for the visitors at FedExForum Thursday night. They lost 115-107 at Milwaukee last night and this will be their third road game on the week. They'll face a Memphis Grizzlies team looking to revenge a 100-94 loss here about a month ago, and the Grizzlies are going for their fourth consecutive win following a 96-91 home victory over the 76ers Tuesday night.
Portland is just 2-7 ATS as an underdog this season and Memphis is 9-5 ATS when trying to revenge a loss vs. an opponent.
Alex Smart
Iowa State vs. Iowa
Play: Iowa St -4½
My own numbers make Iowa State 6.5 point favorites, and Im betting on the final score to be in that range or more, which makes taking the favorite at this number very acceptable from a wagering perspective. The difference maker will come inside the paint and in the rebound department. IOWA ST is 8-1 ATS L/9 in road games versus teams who average 40 or more rebounds/game on the season.IOWA is 8-18 ATS L/26 versus top tier rebounding teams - outrebounding opponents by 4 or more rebounds per game.
IOWA is 0-6 ATS L/6 after having lost 3 of their last 4 games SU/ATS which has just happened. HC Prohm of Iowa State is 10-2 ATS L/12 as a road favorite of 3.5 to 6 points.
College Hoops Home teams as an underdog or pick like Iowa - up-tempo team averaging 62 or more shots/game on the season against opponent after 2 straight games - allowing a shooting pct. of 37% or less are just 18-47 ATS L/65 dating back to 1997.
Larry Ness
San Antonio vs. Chicago
Pick: San Antonio
The San Spurs can match an NBA record for consecutive road wins to start a season if they defeat the Chicago Bulls on Thursday night at the United Center. Just last season, the Golden State Warriors set the mark by going undefeated in their first 14 road games and the Spurs enter this contest a perfect 13-0 SU to open the current season. "It's hard to win an NBA game, especially on the road," reserve guard Patty Mills (11.2 PPG ranks 4th on the team in scoring) told Fox Sports Southwest after scoring 15 points in the Spurs' 105-91 win Tuesday at the Minnesota Timberwolves. "Maybe that extra focus, knowing that we're in another team's building and (they're) wanting to come out trying to beat us, there's that little bit of extra focus or energy or effort, whatever it may be. But we can't pinpoint (why) at the moment, and nor should we try to figure it out. Long season, I guess."
Chicago saw Rose and Noah depart to New York during the off season plus Pau Gasol now plays for the Spurs. Dwyane Wade (19.8-4.2-3.3) and Rajon Rondo (8.3-6.4-6.9) were brought in and Taj Gibson (12.0-8.0) elevated to a starter at PF to join team-leader Jimmy Butler (26.0-6.6-4.1). However, the “new look” Bulls are coming off a 102-91 loss Tuesday at the Detroit Pistons, when they were outplayed in the fourth quarter after overcoming a 17-point deficit in the first half. They have lost three straight games, four of their past five and are just 3-6 since winning four straight from Nov 10-17. Chicago is 11-10 overall and hardly looks like a team capable of ending the Spurs’ winning streak.
Pau Gasol played the past two seasons with the Bulls but signed with San Antonio as a free agent in the offseason. He has only missed one game and has averaged 11.4 points and 7.4 rebounds per game. He’s part of a deep group of SA role players, who mesh well with team stars Leonard (24.5-5.9) and Aldridge (17.0-6.7). The Spurs are 8-4-1 ATS on the road, with an average winning margin of right about 10 points. Lay it with the road favorite.
Brandon Shively
Vanderbilt vs. Middle Tennessee St.
Pick: Vanderbilt
While this is a road game for Vandy, it’s only about a 45 minute bus ride to Murfreesboro, Tennessee in this inner-state matchup. Middle Tennessee comes into this game riding high at 8-1 with their only loss to Tennessee State. This is the only common opponent so far this year between the two teams and Vanderbilt beat Tennessee State by 24 points which I will use as a piece of my handicap here. There are other handicap’s also for this game in our favor:
Middle Tennessee State does not shoot free throws well (61%) and they allow their opponents to get to the free throw line a lot. Vanderbilt is a good free throw shooting team at over 77% on the season. In a game that will be played at a slow pace, it could come down to free throws and Vandy has the big edge there.
Vanderbilt has a 7’1 NBA prospect in Frank Kornet who the NBA scouts have been watching. Riley LaChance is shooting 72% from the 3 point line and Matthew Fisher-Davis is shooting 44% from beyond the arc. All five starters can shoot the 3 ball and Middle Tennessee will struggle guarding the perimeter. Vanderbilt has a 53.9 percent field goal effectiveness which is the best that MTSU has faced yet. They haven’t faced a team like Vanderbilt that is so efficient at shooting the long ball.
While Middle Tennessee does have a solid trio of players in Jacorey Williams, Reggie Upshaw, and Giddy Potts, the rest of the team is not as polished. Vandy is a defensive minded team under coach Bryce Drew and they should be able to lock down the perimeter. MTSU has a couple of guys that have made some three’s this year, but a regression due from Simpson and Habersham.
Take the points tonight with Vandy as I see them building a lead in the first half and holding on to it by making free throws down the stretch.
Jim Feist
Spurs at Bulls
Pick: Under
A high total as both teams can score, but don't overlook the defensive capabilities. San Antonio is No. 3 in the NBA in points allowed, while Chicago is No. 9. San Antonio has gone four straight games under the total. Chicago is home and the Bulls are 12-5 under the total after a loss, plus the Under is 12-5 in the Bulls last 17 vs. a team with a winning straight up record. And when these teams clash the Under is 12-5 in the last 17 meetings.
Allen Eastman
Oakland / Kansas City Under 46.5
These two teams are both coming off some high-scoring games. But this is a key rivalry game between these two teams fighting for the top of the AFC West. The first game between these two teams was a 26-10 Kansas City win. I think this will be an equally low-scoring game. The 'under' is 2-0 the last two times they have met and 7-4 in the last 11 meetings. Seven of the last eight meetings in Arrowhead have gone 'under'. The 'under' is 6-2 in Kansas City's last eight games and 7-3 in their last 10 games. I like the defenses to dominate this one and this one should stay 'under' the total.
Oskeim Sports
Southern Utah at Loyola Marymount
Play: Southern Utah +11
Loyola-Marymount's college basketball program is back on track under head coach Mike Dunlap, who welcomes back several starters and a plethora of experience.
Senior point guard Brandon Brown leads the team with 12.4 points per game and is in his second year under Dunlap's system after being voted JUCO Division II Player of the Year at Phoenix College in 2014.
Senior guard Buay Tuach is averaging 11.6 points per game on 53.5% shooting from the field and 47.1% from beyond the arc.
Loyola-Marymount's backcourt has excellent depth with UCF transfer Steven Haney, Jr. (9.6 ppg) and Iona transfer Kelvin Amayo (9.6 ppg), who arrived in Los Angeles for a sixth year of eligibility.
The Lions' frontcourt possesses tremendous size with 6-11 senior center Stefan Jovanovic (7.8 ppg) and 7-1 freshman Mattias Markusson (3.6 ppg).
The problem with backing the Lions as double-digit home favorites tonight is the fact that they are coming off a disheartening 1-point loss to Boise State in a game that was circled after last year's loss in Boise due to a blown call by the officials.
I also believe Southern Utah has a legitimate chance of pulling the upset under first year college basketball head coach Todd Simon, who has already changed the culture in Cedar City.
After suffering through three untenable seasons with a combined record of 14-70 versus Division I opponents, Southern Utah fired Nick Robinson (averaged 7.25 wins during his 4-year tenure) and brought in Simon. "We are going to win," Simon said over the summer. "I don't have any doubt in my mind , having lived with the players and being tight with all the players I recruited."
Southern Utah's offense is led by Texas Tech transfer Randy Onwuasor, who leads the team in both scoring (20.2 ppg) and rebounding (6.4 rpg). The fifth-year senior also provides the Thunderbirds with much-needed leadership both on and off the court.
Returning starter James McGee, a redshirt junior who led the Big Sky Conference in free-throw percentage last year (.889), is second on the team in scoring with 13.1 points per game. Senior guard Race Parsons has fully recovered from the torn ACL he sustained last season and is third in scoring with 11.6 points per game.
The Thunderbirds' backcourt has excellent depth with senior John Marshall, who started sixteen games last season and is contributing 5.9 points in 23:53 minutes per game in 2016.
Southern Utah's frontcourt is inexperienced and remains the biggest issue for coach Simon. However, junior college transfer Christian Musoko, who won the NJCAA national title with Salt Lake Community College, has provided the physicality needed in the interior.
Additional height is provided by Croatian freshman Ivan Madunic, who is averaging 8.1 points and 6.0 rebounds per game. From a technical standpoint, Southern Utah is 7-1 ATS in its last eight road games, 4-1-1 ATS in its last six games off a loss and 6-2-2 ATS in its last ten games as an underdog.
In contrast, the Lions are a money-burning 18-39-3 ATS as home favorites, 15-35-2 ATS at home versus teams with a losing record and 1-4-1 ATS in their last six games laying points.
Finally, Loyola-Marymount's 66.2% free-throw percentage makes it difficult for coach Dunlap's squad to extend the margin late in the game.
Scott Spreitzer
Denver at Washington
Play: Washington -6
Washington hasn't played up to their potential for most of the season, and they're off a 124-116 loss to Orlando (we won with the Magic). But tonight they're getting "just what the doctor ordered," when Denver pays a visit. The Nuggets are playing in the second of back-to-back nights (2-5 ATS in this spot) and in their fourth game in six nights, overall. Making matters tougher, the Nuggets played their tails off in the fourth quarter in Brooklyn last night, pulling within two points inside 20 seconds left in the game before losing 116-111. We expect Denver to wear down in the fourth quarter tonight. As mentioned above, the Wizards lost last time out as a favorite and we note that Scott Brooks' coached teams are 69-39 ATS off a loss as a favorite. We expect a bounce back for his troops tonight.
David Banks
Raiders @ Chiefs
Pick: Over 45.5
An AFC West showdown on Thursday night could determine the division champion. The Chiefs own one of the two victories over the Raiders this season and can complete a second consecutive season sweep with a win. Kansas City has won four straight over Oakland, including the last two at Oakland Coliseum. The Raiders last home victory over their division rival was in 2014.
If the season ended now, the Raiders would actually have the top seed in the AFC playoffs and home-field advantage throughout. Head coach Jack Del Rio would like nothing more than to hold on to that. It will be the offense that will have to come through if the Raiders are going to do so. Oakland is third in the NFL in scoring offense (28.8 points per game) and QB Derek Carr is on the league’s best. Carr has thrown for 3,375 yards and 24 touchdowns thus far.
In the first meeting with the Chiefs, Oakland managed just 285 yards of total offense, well below their season average of 391.7. Kansas City held the Raiders to just 10 points as Oakland played without leading rusher Latavius Murray (553 yards rushing). The Chiefs do have the ninth-best defense in the league in terms of points allowed. Kansas City has won seven of its last eight games including the last two straight over Denver and Atlanta.
Wunderdog
Nashville vs. Dallas
Pick: Nashville -115
This is a good spot for Nashville. Forward James Neal returned from an injury after missing four games, and quickly scored a goal the last game. Nashville defeated the Colorado Avalanche 4-3 Tuesday, making the Predators 9-4-1 over their past 14 games. Nashville is fifth in the NHL in goals scored, sixth on the power play and faces a banged up Dallas squad that has been a big disappointment. Dallas is #19 in the league in goals scored, #14 on the power play, #27 in penalty killing and dead last in goals allowed (3.2 per game). Dallas is 6-13 playing when playing on one day of rest. The Stars are coming off a 2-1 home loss to Calgary, and the team is 2-14 after allowing two goals or less in their previous game.