Vegas Butcher
Chicago Bulls +4
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Pau-Pau-Pau is back in Chicago tonight, but it's not like he left on bad terms, so I don't see any added 'motivation' here. Sure, he'd like to play well back in Chi-town, but so will the other 9 players on the court with him. I think this is a perfect spot to fade the Spurs actually. Tonight marks their 3rd straight road game and their 10th out of the last 14. Additionally, none of their 4 home games during this time-span were consecutive, and just one-game stops, so this team truly has been on the road for a very long time. They'll get to enjoy a bit of an extended home stay after tonight, but overall this is not an easy spot for them. It'll be even more difficult playing without Parker, who will be missing his 2nd consecutive game. I forgot to mention that San Antonio is 13-1 during this stretch, which, while impressive, has got to be pretty grueling to keep up. It requires a lot of effort and focus to maintain such high level of intensity to win at this rate, which is exatly the opposite for the Bulls lately. This team is on a 3-game losing streak and 1-4 in the last 5. But, Chicago has been involved in two b2b (4 in 5 actually) spots, had Rondo suspended for one game, and recently came off a long grueling part of their schedule where they've played 11 of their 14 on the road. So while the losing streak is never a good thing, it's justifiable. More importantly, due to it, I'd expect an increased sense of urgency out of them tonight. No playoff-contender likes long losing streaks, and those types of teams typically make necessary adjustments to either their strategy or effort level (or both) to get back to winning ways. I expect that to happen to the Bulls tonight. They're getting McDermott back to bolster their bench, and I expect Butler/Wade to step up their games in this one.
Rocketman
Pittsburgh vs. Florida
Play: Pittsburgh -125
The Pittsburgh Penguins travel to Florida to take on the Panthers on Thursday night. Pittsburgh is 16-10 SU overall this year while Florida comes in with a 12-15 SU overall record on the season. Pittsburgh is 8-1 this year after allowing 4 goals or more in their previous game. Pittsburgh is scoring 3.4 goals per game overall this year and 5.2 goals per game their past 5 games overall. Florida is scoring only 2.4 goals per game overall this year and 1.6 goals per game their past 5 games overall. Pittsburgh has won 5 of the past 7 overall meetings over the past 3 years. We'll recommend a small play on Pittsburgh tonight!
Jim Mack
Raiders at Chiefs
Play: Chiefs
Finally, a Thursday night game with some compelling stakes to watch as Kansas City hosts Oakland in a game that will have a big say in which team wins the AFC West Division and earns a potential bye in the playoffs. The Raiders have come on like gangbusters this year, winning nine of their L10 games. The Chiefs have also been hot, but somewhat under the radar thanks to Oakland’s success, winning seven of their L8. They also have home field advantage in this game, and it is expected to be cold at Arrowhead for this nighttime affair. HC Andy Reid’s team has won three straight at home versus Oakland, the most recent two with QB Derek Carr leading the Raiders. The visitors put up just 12.3 PPG in those contests. Between the weather and the Chiefs defense, allowing 16.8 PPG at home in 2016, I believe we could be looking at a similar stifling of the Oakland offense this time around. There are also two specific matchup angles in this game that I love: 1) KANSAS CITY is 15-4 in its L19 vs. good passing teams averaging 235+ PYPG. The average score was KANSAS CITY 25.2, OPPONENT 16.9 2) KANSAS CITY is 8-1 versus poor rushing defenses - allowing >=4.5 YPR over the last 3 seasons. The average score was KANSAS CITY 22.4, OPPONENT 10.3. I believe this is
Brett Atkins
Your free play for Thursday will be to grab the points with the streaking underdog Oakland Raiders as they take on the Kansas City Chiefs in a critical battle at Arrowhead Stadium.
Oakland is seeking revenge for a 26-10 mid-October home loss to Kansas City in California. Since that setback, the Raiders have won 6 in a row, and have covered in 5 of the 6 wins. The Silver-and-Black are also 6-0 straight up on the road this season, and a money-turning 12-2 against the spread their last 14 road games! Throw in the fact they have covered 8 of their last 10 trips to Arrowhead, and the fact the Chiefs are just 1-7 against the spread their last 8 home games, and a strong case can be made for taking the points.
Oakland QB Derek Carr is having himself a whale of a season, MVP-like some would say, and I don't think he is going to let his team get swept by the Chiefs this Thursday night. And if they do get swept, you watch how valuable the +3 points become in this bitter-rivalry battle.
Go with the underdog Raiders on Thursday.
1* OAKLAND
Brad Wilton
Comp play for Thursday is to play the Under in the Oakland-Kansas City meeting at Arrowhead Stadium.
Yes, the Under is the call despite Oakland's 6 straight Overs, and Overs in 10 of 12 this season. Why? well, the last Oakland Under came against Kansas City on October 16th, and 7 of Oakland's last 8 visits to Arrowhead have landed Under the total as well.
Kansas City has played back-to-back Overs, but they both came on the road. At home, the Chiefs have played 5 in a row Under the total.
Another factor to consider is the weather, as December at Arrowhead tends to be a bit on the colder side, and tonight is no exception. Game time temp expected to be about 20, with the wind chill taking things down to about 10 degrees.
Definitely can see this one ending with about 42 combined points on the board as Oakland and Kansas City make it an 8-1 Under record in the last 9 played in KC.
3* OAKLAND-KANSAS CITY UNDER
Eric Schroeder
My free play for Thursday night is on Massachusetts, minus the points against visiting Pacific.
I'll be short and sweet with this complimentary winner, as I simply don't believe this is a safe trip at this point, for the Tigers to make. Pacific - which is located in Stockton, Calif, where the high is expected to be 55 today - has traveled to Amherst, where it will be around 32 degrees.
Of course, they're not playing outside, but it's the principal. The frigid weather, the travel factor and possibly jet lag will be too much for the Tigers.
Take the home team.
1* MASSACHUSETTS
Chris Jordan
Ranked 12th in the nation, the St. Mary's Gaels have a good shot at opening West Coast Conference play undefeated.
Sitting at 6-0 on the season, the Gaels will play their last five non-conference games at home. Tonight, I love them minus the points against Texas-Arlington as my free play.
I know the Mavericks (7-3) are being looked at as a legitimate test, as they were the preseason choice to win the Sun Belt Conference and arrive in Moraga, California on a six-game win streak. I also know this team scored an 11-point victory over Texas on the Longhorns' home court Nov. 29.
But St. Mary's is a damn good, seasoned basketball team, and coach Randy Bennett will have his troops ready for battle.
The Gaels rank second nationally in assist-to-turnover ratio (2.22) and third in field-goal percentage (53.2). They come in after a longer-than-usual layoff, following a 66-51 victory at the Pac 12's Stanford on Nov. 30.
I was impressed by Jock Landale - St. Mary's 6-foot-11 center who leads the team in scoring (19.7 points per game), shooting percentage (76.1) and rebounding (9.0) - when I saw the team play here a couple of Sundays back.
Count on a close one... in the first half. The Gaels pull away late for the win and cover.
4* ST. MARY'S
Bob Valentino
We're headed to the Smoothie King Center for my free play, as I love the New Orleans Pelicans to smother the Philadelphia 76ers tonight in the NBA.
It's been a frustrating season for both teams, but at 4-18, the 76ers have the worst record in the NBA. They also have a mere nine healthy players.
Tonight, Jerryd Bayless (left wrist), Robert Covington (left knee sprain) and Jahlil Okafor (gastroenteritis) are not expected to join the team in New Orleans.
And as long as the Pelicans have Anthony Davis - who leads the NBA in scoring (31.6) and blocks (2.81) and is sixth in rebounding (11.4) - I would give the nod to them against the cellar dwellers in the league.
4* PELICANS
Brandon Lee
Nuggets +5.5
I just don't think the Wizards should be this big of a favorite against even an average team like the Nuggets. Washington comes into this game 7-13 and have a whopping 1 win all season by more than 7-points. Denver will be playing their 5th game in 7 days, but that's actually been a great spot to back a road dog when that team is not very good. Road dogs playing 5 games in 7 nights who have won between 25% to 40% of their games are 47-18 (72%) against the spread over the last 5 seasons. Washington is also going to be a tired team, as they will be playing their 3rd game in 4 nights. This is also a big number for a team to be laying that plays little to not defense. The Wizards have allowed 100+ in 4 straight 11 of 13. Adding to this is the fact that Denver is 17-5 ATS in their last 22 road games against teams allowing 103+ points/game.
Dave Price
Jazz +9
The Golden State Warriors put a lot into last night's game against the Clippers as they wanted to make a statement that they were the best team in the West. That contest was also nationally televised on TNT. I think the Warriors come back flat tonight, allowing the Utah Jazz to cover this 8.5-point spread at home. The Jazz aren't to be taken lightly as they are 7-1 in their last eight games overall despite dealing with some injuries. And the Jazz have played the Warriors tough at home. They took them to overtime in a 7-point loss and lost by only 3 in their two home meetings last season. The Jazz are 6-1-1 ATS in their last eight games overall. Look for them to give the Warriors a run for their money tonight.
Jimmy Boyd
Iowa State -4½
I like the value here with the Cyclones as a small road favorite against the Hawkeyes. I believe we are getting value here because of the fact that this is a big rivalry game, but this Iowa team has really struggled out of the gate. Not a big surprise, as the Hawkeyes lost 4 senior starters off last year's 22-win team. Iowa comes in with a 4-5 record and have yet to beat a team of significance, as their 4 wins are against Kennesaw State, Savannah State, UTRGV and Stetson. They have already lost at home twice, falling 83-91 to Seton Hall and 89-98 to Nebraska-Omaha.
While the Hawkeyes are potent offensively (86.7 ppg), they don't play any defense and struggle big time at keeping teams from scoring inside. Iowa is giving up 83.1 ppg and allowing opponents to shoot 45% from the field. ISU is certainly capable of taking advantage of Iowa's leaking defense, as they are averaging 84.7 ppg. The big key here is that the Cyclones are one of the better defensive teams in the country, as opponents are shooting a mere 34.6% from the field against them. Keep in mind that same Nebraska-Omaha team that went into Iowa City and beat the Hawkeyes, got absolutely destroyed in a 47-91 loss at Iowa State a couple days later.
Jack Jones
Grizzlies -1
The Memphis Grizzlies have shown a ton of heart in overcoming all their recent injuries to win games. They saw injuries decimate their team last season, and thus lead to a terrible finish down the stretch, and they don't want that same fate again.
The Grizzlies have responded in a big way by going 4-0 in their last four games overall to improve to 15-8 on the season. They just got Zach Randolph back recently, so they are getting healthier, but they are also proving that their bench is better than it gets credit for as several players are stepping up right now.
While the Grizzlies had yesterday off to recover, the Blazers don't have the same luxury. Portland will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and its 3rd game in 4 days after a 107-115 loss at Milwaukee last night. This team has been abysmal defensively this season, giving up 112.5 points per game dead last in the NBA in defensive efficiency.
Plays against road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (PORTLAND) - an excellent offensive team (at least 02 PPG) against a poor defensive team (98-102 PPG), after a combined score of 215 points or more two straight games are 23-5 (82.1%) ATS over the last five seasons.
The Blazers are 0-6 ATS in their last six games playing on 0 days' rest. The Grizzlies are 6-0 ATS in their last six vs. Western Conference foes. Portland is 1-7 ATS in its last eight vs. Western Conference opponents.
Scott Rickenbach
Wolves vs. Raptors
Play: Over 214
Off of an upset loss as a small home favorite versus Cleveland Monday, the Raptors will look to take advantage of facing a Timberwolves defense that is allowing 105.6 points per game this season. Toronto is hungry to respond off of defeat and has gone 22-13 to the over the past 3 seasons combined when off of an upset loss as a favorite. Also, when playing with the fresh legs afforded by 2 days of rest, the Raptors have gone 4-0 to the over this season. The Timberwolves are off of a home loss to San Antonio that stayed under the total but the over is 7-4 in Minnesota's road games this season. Also, 6 of the Timberwolves last 7 road games have totaled at least 213 points. Minny is all about run and gun and their defense is normally porous. They've allowed about 113 points per game in their last 6 games. Toronto should score at will tonight but the one thing that Minnesota can do is "fill it up" at other end I expect this one to turn into a shootout as a result. Toronto has a game at Boston on deck for tomorrow and this type of situation is not going to bring about the best Raptors defensive intensity as they certainly need to save some for tomorrow's divisional battle.
SPORTS WAGERS
Oakland +3½ over KANSAS CITY
Andy Reid has had a pretty spectacular couple of weeks. His Chiefs beat Denver 30-27 on Sunday Night Football in Week 12 and they went on the road to defeat the Falcons last Sunday. Reid has coached his ass off. He called a ballsy fake punt in Atlanta that scored a touchdown and for once he didn't look like the biggest idiot on the sidelines but we're still not buying it. The Chiefs were very fortunate (again) when Denver gave them amazing field position in overtime after the Broncos missed a questionable 60-yard field goal attempt. Last week, K.C. got lucky (again) when defensive back Eric Berry snatched the game away on a two-point conversion attempt that would have given the Falcons a one or three point lead. Instead, it was a pick-2 for the Chiefs and they won 29-28. When taking a closer look at the Chiefs, they could very easily be 0-5 in their last five games instead of 4-1. Every game was decided by a score or less. Chiefs quarterback Alex Smith is a game manager at best and their offense is ranked just 23rd in the league. The Chiefs sit at 9-3 and are a game back of Oakland. Kansas City also destroyed the Raiders 26-10 in Oakland earlier this season.
The Raiders find a way to win every week. They are 6-0 since that embarrassing home loss to K.C. and capped that run with a 38-24 win over Buffalo on Sunday. Oakland is also undefeated on the road this season. Quarterback Derek Carr has 24 touchdowns to just five interceptions this season. The Raiders offense is ranked third in the league and their defense has been much more imposing lately, lead by defensive end Khalil Mack who has a sack in seven straight games.
This game opened with the Chiefs a -3 point home favorite suggesting these teams are even on a neutral field but that doesn't add up. The Chiefs seem to have every advantage coming into this one. No travel on a short week, the weather is expected to be around 20 degrees Fahrenheit and K.C. is getting receiver Jeremy Maclin back from injury. Furthermore, the media has jumped on the Chiefs bandwagon, which is usually the kiss of death. The Chiefs are getting big time national attention this week while being called the most “complete” team in the AFC. They are being praised over and over for having won 20 of their last 23 regular season games but their luck may finally run out here. We get the vastly superior QB with points but more than that, their arrival as a legit team opens the door for a Raiders squad, which is the better team in this bitter rivalry for the first time in years to take down this enemy and prove that they have arrived. We trust Oakland to do exactly that.
SPORTS WAGERS
Colorado +160 over BOSTON
OT included. The Bruins are 15-12 and have picked up points in six straight games with four victories and two OT losses. Everything that the Bruins are doing has the full support of their underlying numbers. Boston has been a possession monster while posting the leagues best Corsi Against numbers. However, there is a right time to step in against every team and this looks like that perfect opportunity.
The B’s rallied from three down last night to tie it in Washington before falling in OT. Rallying from three down against that team in their building had to have taken something out of them. Additionally, it was Boston’s fifth straight one goal game and its fourth OT game in those five. That high intensity over five games had to take something out of them too. Boston will play its fifth game in seven days, fourth in six, three in four and tail-end of back-to-backs here. That, too had to take something out of them. Lastly, the B’s have the Maple Leafs on deck on Saturday night that will be featured on Hockey Night in Canada. Tonight, the B’s will face a Western team that they rarely see and it appears they’ll give Tuukka Rask the night off too. Combine everything mentioned above and it creates the perfect situational spot to fade the B’s.
Meanwhile, the Avalanche will go with backup Calvin Pickard here. Pickard is the backup for one reason and one reason only and it’s because everything is about money. If their salaries were reversed, the same or even close, Semyon Varlamov would be #2. Colorado figures to be hungry after six straight losses. The problem is a lack of offense plus weak goaltending but it’s not as bad as it seems. The Avs PDO is 27th in the league (PDO is a shooting and save percentage metric that serves as a proxy for luck) so they’re a strong candidate for better luck. The bet here, however, is all about fading the B’s in this extremely difficult and vulnerable spot.
New Jersey +149 over MONTREAL
OT included. Not interested in a Montreal team spotting a big price upon returning home from a five-game trip that started in Detroit and ended in St. Louis with three games on the West Coast in between. The risks go even a little deeper than that. You see, the Canadiens are dealing with some injury issues, especially at center with Alex Galchenyuk and David Desharnais, who are out for the next six to eight weeks with knee injuries. Galchenyuk is the Habs’ leading scorer. Being undermanned at center is perhaps the biggest obstacle to overcome because everything is generated from that position. You now play a team like New Jersey that can thrive on this handicap because of its ability to make entering the zone difficult and you have the recipe for an upset.
The last four games that these two have played against one another have all been one-goal games with three of them going into extra time. All of those games were last year but this season, the Devils are improved and their even tougher to beat. Throw in the Canadiens significant injuries at center and the returning home from a trip angle and what we have is a live dog at a sweet price. We’ll bite.
Vancouver +197 over TAMPA BAY
OT included. The Lightning are coming off a 1-0 OT loss to the Hurricanes. They have one regulation win over their past eight games and have allowed five goals or more three times over that span. While Tampa Bay is another one of these dangerous teams that can score goals, there is nothing extraordinary about them whatsoever. The Bolts’ defense is average on their best day. They are a top-heavy team but their best player remains out. While guys like Andrej Palat (maybe the most underrated player in the game) Tyler Johnson, Jonathan Drouin and Nikita Kucherov are great talents, the Bolts have several players that are getting big minutes that wouldn’t be getting that much time on most other teams. Furthermore, we’ll continue to insist that Ben Bishop is nothing more than a giant with little skill.
We’ll also keep insisting that Vancouver offers up too much value at prices like this to pass up on, especially against a beatable team like the Lightning. Vancouver is coming off a 3-2 loss in New Jersey as a -160 dog but allowed just 22 shots on net. The Canucks have not lost consecutive games in a month dating back to November 5 and 7. Since then, the Canucks have defeated the Rangers, Dallas, Minnesota, and Toronto among others. The Canucks are not a flashy team that is capable of rolling over opponents. What they will do, however, is put forth an honest effort and grind out wins. They’ll keep coming and they won’t give up. Despite a 10-game losing streak in which they didn’t play bad at all, the Canucks are just four games under .500 but they get no credit whatsoever because bettors are just so unfamiliar with them. The Canucks hard work, determination and structured system makes them very playable when priced in this range because they have such a legit chance of winning.
WINNIPEG -½ +144 over N.Y. Rangers
Regulation only. Which version of the Jets are we going to see tonight? Will it be the one that went into St. Louis and Chicago last week and won both games or will it be the version that blew a 3-1 lead against the Red Wings in its last start? The Jets have been this Jekyll and Hyde team for three years running. At some point, some stability, consistency and/or commitment to winning is bound to kick in because the Jets are too talented to be losing this many games. A team this deep and talented should never be watching the playoffs from the rail. In any case, there is a good chance that one of the NHL’s best players, Mark Schiefiele returns tonight after missing three games but regardless of that, Winnipeg on their worst day is still very capable of beating the Rangers on New York’s best day.
The Rangers are coming off a 4-2 loss to the Islanders. Their last three victories occurred against the Hurricanes twice and the Flyers once. In those three victories, the Rags amassed 23, 21 and 23 shots on net while allowing 42, 28 and 28 respectively. The Rangers scored 10 goals on 64 shots on net over their last three victories. That is unsustainable but this market actually thinks the Rangers are among the better teams in the league. That is false. New York has some very decent forwards but so does every team in the NHL. What the Rags have more than most teams is a bunch of dead weight and the inability to dominate games or keep the puck out of their own end. The only thing remarkable about the Rags is that they have won more games than they’ve lost but don’t expect that to be the case after 82 games. This is a weak team with big regression on the horizon. That they’re evenly priced on the road in Winnipeg is just another example of the market’s completely incorrect perception of them.