Free Picks for Thursday, July 13th, 2017 from some of the nations best and worst handicappers
Jim Feist
Sun at Sparks
Pick: Over
Connecticut had to play at Seattle yesterday and now head to the rested defending champs, so look for LA to run right at them. Connecticut can run and scored, on a 10-2 run over the total, plus they are 10-4 over playing on no days rest. Los Angeles is 7-0 SU at home and 4-0 over the total against winning teams. Center Candace Parker was named the WNBA's Western Conference Player of the Week. Parker recorded back-to-back doubles, starting with 21 points and 13 rebounds to go with five assists and two steals in an 85-76 victory at the Atlanta Dream on June 30. Two days later, the former University of Tennessee star notched 17 points, 11 rebounds and four assists in a 76-69 home win over the Washington Mystics. And the Over is 11-5 in the last 16 meetings in Los Angeles.
SPORTS WAGERS
WINNIPEG -3½ over Toronto
If we’re sticking to our mantra of buying high and selling low, then the Blue Bombers would have to be the play here. You see, not only is Toronto 2-1 after defeating the Grey Cup champs last week, but they are also getting most of the early CFL headlines with the resurgent play of Ricky Ray and his now favorite target, S.J. Green. Ray leads the league in passing yardage at 1,199 but he also threw for a career high 506 yards in a Week 1 win over Hamilton. Green is second in the CFL in receiving yards with 367 and fourth in receptions with 19, including 10 for a career-high 210 yards last week. Yes indeed, the Toronto Argonauts are making some noise and it sure doesn’t hurt the Argos stock that Marc Trestman’s offense is moving the sticks.
By contrast, Winnipeg was whacked by the Stampeders last week, 29-10 and did not even score a single point in the second half. That’s the last impression that the viewing public have of the Winnipeg Blue Bombers, which works to our advantage because we now get Winnipeg with their stock low and also get to sell Toronto’s high stock at the same time.
Breaking it down further, Toronto’s two wins have come against the combined 0-4-1 records of Hamilton and Ottawa. The Argos defeated Ottawa last week because the Redblacks missed a convert. After watching Saskatchewan dismantle the Tigercats last week, Toronto’s victory over the Tabbies in Week 1 looks less compelling also. Perhaps the Argonauts are greatly improved. Perhaps the victories are legit but let’s not give them too much credit just yet. Toronto has been outgained in two of its three games and they will also be playing this one on a short week after playing on Saturday. That gives the Boatmen just four full days to get ready for this one. The Argos also had to spend a day traveling.
It may surprise you to learn that the Bombers are 11-4 in their last 15 games dating back to late last July when quarterback Matt Nichols, guard Travis Bond and safety Taylor Loffler were all inserted into the starting lineup. Two of those losses were against Calgary, a third came versus the Edmonton Eskimos, and the other was against the Grey Cup champion. Over that same 15-game stretch, only the Stamps – at 13-1-1 – have a better record than Winnipeg. (B.C. and Edmonton are 10-5, Montreal is 6-9, Ottawa is 5-9-1, Saskatchewan is 5-10, Hamilton is 4-11 and Toronto is 3-12, including a 2-1 start this year). Let’s also not ignore that the Bombers went into Mosiac Stadium in Week 1 and put up 43 points in a victory over the Roughriders. They also took a one-point lead into halftime last week against Calgary but the next possession to start the second half changed the entire landscape of that game.
Winnipeg had just scored 10 straight to take a one-point lead and momentum into the dressing room. The Blue Bombers kicked off to Calgary to start the second half and the Stamps promptly went two and out and were ready to punt it away when Stamps coach, Dave Dickenson challenged that there was illegal contact by a Winnipeg defender. They showed the replay five times and there was no illegal contact but remarkably, the refs overturned their call on the field (in game variance) and Calgary was awarded a first down and eventually scored a TD on that drive. That’s how one subjective call changed everything but we can’t worry about that. Our goal is to find value and we’re trusting that Winnipeg is being sold short here, which is our prompt to step in and pounce. A hungry Winnipeg team, at home, that can play at a high level and that has had one more day than the Argos to prepare, likely wins this one going away.