Free Picks and Premium Service Plays for Thursday, November 10th, 2016 from some of the nations best and worst handicappers.
Sleepyj
La.-Lafayette +10
UL-Laf does a very things well..One of them is rushing defense..Well the one thing that Geo So does well is run the ball...The majority of the offense they generate comes from running..So if UL-Laf can slow them down, I like our chances.....Number wise these teams are almost even when we look at the stats...Georgia So. has struggled the last 5 or 6 games..They lost 5 of the last 6 and come off a tough game Vs. Ole Miss...Bowl season seems rather bleak if they can win two more games, but they might press here tonight..UL Laf should be relaxed as they have nothing to lose....I like the UL-Laf offense as far as players go, but they are limited overall...Geo So. struggles stopping the pass as they rank 50th giving up 220ypg...That's not terrible, but it leaves the door open for the Cajuns throwing the ball...The big weakness for Ul-Laf is the pass, but Geo So. passes about 15 times a game..The QB isn't good as his season completion % is about 57%....So the passing attack doesn't scare me..I think this is one of those tug of war type of games...These look like even teams and i worry about the overall health and motivation of the Eagles after a tough game loss Vs. Ole Miss...Stat wise these teams are about even, but laying 10 in a conf. game seems like a bit much here...I'll take the +10
DAVE COKIN
UL LAFAYETTE AT GEORGIA SOUTHERN
PLAY: UL LAFAYETTE +10
UL Lafayette is performing pretty much like I though they would this season. This did not figure to be a banner season for the Ragin’ Cajuns and that’s the way it’s gone for the most part. They’ve won only two FBS games and one of those was against ultra-lowly Texas State.
Georgia Southern falls into the disappointing category. The Eagles were my top power-rated Sun Belt entry prior to the season. They’ve been, even at the SBC level, a flop. Georgia Southern started the campaign 3-0, but they really weren’t particularly sharp in early wins against South Alabama and UL-Monroe. It’s been downhill from there with only a narrow win against New Mexico State amongst five losses.
Georgia Southern did play reasonably well this past Saturday in a good effort against Ole Miss. But the Eagles sure don’t look like play-on material to me and I’m seeing a line that is a little too high as they get a national TV home date against the Cajuns.
There is a caveat here, and that’s the status of UL-Lafayette running back Elijah McGuire. He’s nursing a foot injury and considering the relative impotence of the ULL offense this season, the Cajuns need him on the field this Thursday.
But I have far fewer concerns about the road team’s defense, which has actually played very well since changing coordinators early in the season. I expect ULL to be able to limit a Georgia Southern attack that simply hasn’t lived up to billing.
On paper, I have this game being quite competitive, and I like taking doubles when I’ve got the better defense. That being the case, I’m liking UL Lafayette plus the the points in this game.
SPORTS WAGERS
Cleveland +10 over BALTIMORE
It was a typical Sunday for Cleveland, as they once again lost by a big margin, this time to the Cowboys, 35-10. Cleveland has given up at least 25 points in each of their nine losses this season. Week after week, the Brownies are usually getting whacked and we completely understand how they are not an appealing choice. However, the Brownies get a rare, prime time game here and that’s when a team that continues to gets embarrassed usually comes up big. This is Cleveland’s Super Bowl only because they entire football world will be watching.
The Ravens are coming off a 21-14 victory over the Steelers. It might look like a nice win on paper but Baltimore was able to take advantage of a banged up Ben Roethlisberger, who likely came back too early from injury, again. Truth be told, the game was won on a 95-yard catch and run with Mike Wallace burning his former team. A home win against the Steelers is about as big as it gets for the Ravens and so they celebrated like they won the Super Bowl. Even coach Jim Harbaugh couldn't help himself by calling it a “great win”. That win pulled the Ravens even with Pittsburgh at 4-4 for the AFC North lead. We are not going to put much stock into a win over a half crippled quarterback. Let us point out that the Steelers had one first down by half time and only two first downs and 69 total yards by the end of the third quarter. The bigger issue is that the Ravens couldn’t put the Steelers away. Furthermore, the Ravens were down 20-0 to Cleveland before a blocked convert attempt that they ran back for a safety changed the entire complexion of that game. Baltimore’s other two wins came against Jacksonville by 2 and Buffalo by 6 and they deserved to win neither. The Ravens will now go from a +3 home dog to a -10 point favorite on a short week. Perhaps more importantly, the Earthtones go from a +7 dog against Dallas to a +10 dog against the punch-less Ravens. There are plenty of reasons to be skeptical about the Ravens' chances of covering a number like this against anyone. First, they have trouble scoring 10 points. Secondly, the roster is old and depleted and the dynamic is untested, particularly on the offensive side. Baltimore’s identity used to be its defense but they no longer have a defined identity on either side of the ball, and while its man-for-man talent level is certainly higher than that of Cleveland’s, this is not a team we should be counting on to deliver as a big favorite against any opponent on a short or long week of preparation. We’re stepping in today because this number is too good to pass up on.
Rob Vinciletti
Utah vs. Arizona State
Play: Arizona St +6
The Sun Devils are taking 5-6 points here in their final home game, which they have won 5 of the last 6 seasons. They take on a Utah team that they have beaten 11 of 12 times dating back over 39 years. They are 6-0 as a home dog off a loss. Utah has failed to cover 7 of 8 as a conference favorite and 10 of 11 vs a team off back to back losses. Take Arizona St in this one.
Scott Spreitzer
Pelicans vs. Bucks
Play: Bucks -4
New Orleans is well on its way to a nightmare scenario this season as it has yet to win a game and tonight plays its third road contest in four nights. The Pelicans lost in Sacramento on Tuesday as once again their opponents let Anthony Davis have his points while concentrating defensively on everyone else. Davis scored 34 points with only two other teammates in double figures as Buddy Hield and E'Twaun Moore had 14 and 13 points, respectively. Moore is questionable for this game with a toe injury. Milwaukee has the luxury of three days off after it lost 86-75 in overtime at Dallas, which broke a three-game winning streak. The Bucks were playing a back-to-back and shot only 36.6 percent from the field with Jabari Parker the leading scorer with 16 points. New Orleans is 2-6 ATS this season and second-to-last with a -6.62 scoring margin.
Matt Josephs
Utah vs. Arizona State
Play: Over 56½
Manny Wilkins is back under center as Arizona State hosts Utah. The Sun Devils offense is coming off a bye week and will be looking to stop a three game losing streak. The main reason why for ASU is because their defense is one of the worst in the country. They have allowed 37 points or more in three straight and five of their last six. Utah's offense has had their issues, but they are also coming off a bye week so they could provide some new wrinkles. The Sun Devil defense has struggled with some passing games allowing over 300 yards to Cal, Arizona and UCLA the past few weeks. It's also Utah's fourth road game of their last six so they could be a bit weary. Arizona State has gone over in 13 of their last 21 games against teams with a winning record. I think this one should go over the total.
Bob Harvey
Bulls / Heat Under 199½
It’s homecoming night for Dwyane Wade who leads the Chicago Bulls into Miami to battle the Heat. Wade will be making his first trek to South Beach as a visiting player after 13 years in Miami.
Wade scored 25 points on Wednesday but the Bulls (4-3 SU, 4-3 ATS) lost 115-107 to the host Atlanta Hawks for their fourth loss in five games. Wade (17.9 ppg) went 10 of 17 from the floor vs. the Hawks and contributed five steals. He’s the #2 scoring option behind Jimmy Butler (23.3), who scored a season-high 39 points against Atlanta
Miami (2-4 S, 2-4 ATS) has also hit the skids dropping four of its last five after suffering a 97-85 loss in Oklahoma City on Monday. The Heat, who are still adjusting to life without D-Wade, is led by Goran Dragic (18 points per game) and Hassan Whiteside (17.5 points, team-best 13.8 rebounds). Miami is 28th in the league in scoring (96.3 ppg.) but 7th in defense (98.0).
The UNDER is 4-1 in the last five series meetings and 7-2 in the last 9 meetings. Chicago is 5-0 to the low side in its last five vs. the NBA Southeast Division and 10-1 to the UNDER in its last 11 road games.
The Bulls are 0-4 ATS in the last four series meetings while the Heat are 1-4 ATS in their last five overall.
The Heat won all four of last season's meetings, including victories by 22 and 18 points.
Larry Ness
Chicago vs. Miami
Pick: Miami
Dwyane Wade, a 12-time NBA All-Star and three-time NBA champion will be back in Dade (Wade?) County tonight, as the 4-4 Chicago Bulls visit the 2-4 Miami Heat. Wade makes his first trip to South Beach as a visiting player and his return to his adopted home of Miami will be an event will be aired on TNT. "I'm looking forward to it," Wade told ESPN after the Bulls beat the Orlando Magic on Monday night. "I'm looking forward to playing in the environment I played in for 13 years and competing against guys I've played with and have relationships with."
The now 34-year-old is averaging 17.9 PPG, second on the Bulls behind fellow All-Star guard Jimmy Butler (23.3) & 5.4), who is Chicago's primary scoring option. Butler scored a season-high 39 points against Atlanta last night, although the Bulls lost 115-107 to the Hawks. The Bulls are trying to get back to the postseason, after they missed the playoffs last season for the first time since 2008. Chicago traded away star PG Derrick Rose and watched center Joakim Noah and power forward Pau Gasol leave as free agents. PG Rondo (7.5-4.6-6.8 ) and center Robin Lopez (7.9-6.1) are part of the “new-look” Bulls, who now start Gibson (12.3-9.0) at the PF position, with Mirotic (9.8-4.9) coming off the bench with SF McDermott (11.0).
Miami is still adapting to not having Wade. The Heat re-signed center Hassan Whiteside to a new deal prior to the season and he’s been delivering big time, averaging 17.5 PPG and 13.8 RPG. PG Dragic’s numbers (18.0-4.5-6.2) are up with Wade gone and third-player Johnson (14.5-4.0) and second-year player Winslow (11.8-4.7) are also assuming bigger roles this season. Miami is hoping that Waiters, signed away from OKC as a free agent, will find his shooting touch. So far, he’s averaging just 9.5 PPG, while shooting only 31.9 percent from the floor.
Animosity with Heat president Pat Riley lingers from the breakdown in offseason negotiations that led to Wade returning to his hometown of Chicago. "I think you guys know I haven't talked to him," Wade told reporters on Wednesday. "It's as simple as that. I think I've been very open and honest about my respect and love with Pat. I've been honest that I haven't spoken to him since (last) season ended." Both teams enter having lost four of their last five but Miami rates an edge in the scheduling department, having not played since Monday, while the Bulls travel off a loss last night in Atlanta.
The make-up of these teams is different from last year but the Heat did win all four of last season's meetings, including victories by 22 and 18 points. Take the home team.
Jim Feist
Lakers at Kings
Pick: Over
The Los Angeles Lakers have talked about playing better defense but it hasn't showed yet on the court. They remain one of the surprise teams of the first month but could use some practice time on the defensive end as well. LA is on a 4-1 run over the total. The Kings allowed an average of 108.3 points during a four-game slide. The Over is 38-18-1 in the last 57 meetings, including 20-8-1 over the total in Sacramento.
Vernon Croy
Duke (+10.5) over North Carolina
This pick falls into one of my college football systems, and I have Duke keeping this game much closer than many might think. The Blue Devils are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games after a loss and 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games after allowing more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game. Duke is also 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games when playing a team with a winning record, and the home team is 5-2 ATS in the last 7 games played between these two teams. The Tar Heels are just 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games after rushing for more than 200 yards in their previous game and 2-5 ATS in their last 7 road games when playing a team with a losing record at home. Duke has allowed an average of just 23.9 ppg this season and the Tar Heels have allowed 26.2 ppg this season. This is a big letdown spot for the Tar Heels, who are coming off 3 straight wins, so grab the points with Duke ATS as your free play for Thursday night. Make sure you get on my football package this week as I go for 5 straight winning weeks in the NFL, and extend my 75% +$3,090 NFL top plays run that has spanned over the last 7 weeks.
Harry Bondi
CLEVELAND +8 over Baltimore
The Browns have been a money-eating machine this season, covering just two of their nine games, but we’re still going to hold our nose here and take the points. Ravens are in a miserable spot as they come in off a huge win over hated divisional rival Pittsburgh and that brings into play a situation that has been very profitable over the years: Home teams that are favored the week after playing the Steelers are just 12-32 ATS. The Ravens have also only managed three covers in their last 15 chances as a divisional home favorite of more than a field goal, so we’ll gladly take the points vs. a Baltimore offense that has managed to top 23 points in a game just twice all season and has been held to 98 yards rushing or less in six out of eight games.
SEAN MURPHY
Heat -1½
I'll back the Heat at home against Dwyane Wade and the Bulls on Thursday night.
Of course, much is being made of Wade's return to Miami. The common line of thinking is that the Bulls will get a real emotional boost and rise to the occasion. I'm not so sure that's how it will play out on the court, however.
Chicago is struggling right now, having dropped four of its last five games after a hot start. The Bulls are in a tough spot here, playing the second of back-to-back nights, not to mention a 3-in-4 situation.
Meanwhile, the Heat have been off the last two days following a disappointing winless road trip through Toronto and Oklahoma City. They'll certainly be motivated to get back on track, especially given this is a national spotlight game on TNT.
The Heat owned this series last year, taking all four meetings. While the Bulls have shown signs of being an improved team this season, they've yet to put it all together.
BRANDON LEE
Warriors vs. Nuggets
Play:Nuggets +6
Most are going to see this line and think the oddsmakers made a mistake, but I don't think that's the case at all. Whenever something looks to be this far off from what you would expect, chances are the books are on to something. With Golden State being arguably the biggest publicly backed team in the league, they aren't going to set a small line here without being confident the Nuggets can cover. While Denver is just 3-4 overall, they are 5-2 ATS and keep in mind they have played 5 of their first 6 on the road. The Nuggets played the Warriors tough in all 4 meetings last year, given just how good Golden State was, including a win at home in the last contest. You also can't overlook how difficult is to play a back-to-back set with the second game in the thin air of Denver. I think the Warriors come out flat here, similar to what we saw a few games back with their 20-point loss at LA to the Lakers.
Brett Atkins
Thursday's comp play release comes in late-night in the NBA, as I like the Lakers and Kings to combine to go Over the posted total.
Los Angeles has been pushing the tempo under first year coach Luke Walton, as they head north to Sacramento with Overs played in their last pair of games, and in 4 of their last 5 games overall.
Sacramento hasn't really posted the offensive numbers the way the Lakers have, as they have played Unders in their last pair of games, and 6 of their 9 games played this season overall.
Still, a look at series trends between the teams shows 3 Overs in the last 5 meetings, and the Over when these teams meet in Sacto stands at 20-8-1 the past 29 showdowns.
I say the offense flows tonight, and this late-night meeting eclipses the posted price.
2* L.A. LAKERS-SACRAMENTO OVER