Chris Jordan
Dwyane Wade and the Chicago Bulls invade South Beach tonight, to play the Miami Heat. There will be plenty of emotions tonight, with most standing in ovation of D-Wade, while there is a Twitter-movement encouraging fans to boo for the former Heat star.
All I care about is who covers the damn spread, since I'm a Lakers fan.
Personally, I think the Heat's younger lineup and new look is impressive, and believe Miami is going to win this one. The New York Knicks were able to destroy the Bulls in Derrick Rose's first game against his former team, now the Heat should be able to take it to the Bulls in Wade's first game against his former employer.
Chicago is in on the second of back-to-back nights, as the Bulls lost in Atlanta last night, 115-107. That uptempo game won't help, as they could come in with tired legs for this game.
I'll lay the chalk with the home team.
5* HEAT
Brad Wilton
Let's roll with the home underdog Sun Devils plus the points this Thursday night at home against the Utes.
Utah gave Washington a tussle at home their last time our, losing by just a touchdown as the +10 point underdog, and while they covered, they have to be a little disappointed they were not able to pull off the upset. Now the Utes take their act to Tempe to face an Arizona State team that has lost 3 straight to drop to 5-4 on the year. An Arizona State team they handled 34-18 last year in Salt Lake City.
What I am saying is Utah could very well be in so a scuffle tonight on the road. They have lost their last pair of conference visits to Tempe, and Arizona State has covered ALL 5 of their home games this season, and 8 in a row at home dating back to last season.
State is also on a 4-0 spread run their last 4 games following a loss.
Maybe it won't be an outright win, but I can see this one coming down to a field goal.
Take the home dog.
3* ARIZONA STATE
David Banks
Cleveland @ Baltimore
Pick: Baltimore -7.5
After a win over Pittsburgh last week, the Baltimore Ravens are now back. After losing three straight, Baltimore is now in the driver’s seat in the AFC North. Baltimore won for the first time in 42 days and now, at 4-4, is in first place in the division. Another division victory over the Browns will help to solidify head coach John Harbaugh’s position. The Browns have only beaten the Ravens twice in the last 17 attempts. So far in 2016, Cleveland and new head coach Hue Jackson have experienced just about everything that can go wrong.
The Browns have used six quarterbacks thus far this season but have had some stability over the past few weeks as rookie Cody Kessler has remained healthy. The running game is virtually non-existent and against a Ravens defense that held Pittsburgh to just 36 yards rushing last week, don’t expect much from Cleveland.
On defense, the Browns might be even worse. They are giving up 30.3 points per game, 31st in the league. Cleveland’s defense has given up 30 or more points in six of nine games. In the other three, the Browns gave up 29, 28, and 25. Baltimore is by no means an offensive powerhouse – the Ravens average 19.3 points a game – but against a weak Cleveland defense Baltimore just may come alive.
JIMMY BOYD
Georgia Southern -7½
I think this Eagles team is coming in undervalued right now. They are just 1-5 in their last 6 games, but the schedule has been brutal. Their two conference losses during this stretch are against Appalachian State and Arkansas State. Both of which are perfect in conference play. The other three were on the road against Western Michigan, Georgia Tech and Ole Miss.
Keep in mind this was an Eagles team that was picked to be at or near the top of the Sun Belt standings. Even with the two losses this season, they are 17-4 in their 21 conference games since joining the Sun Belt.
As for the Ragin’ Cajuns, this is a team that is trending in the wrong direction. Evident by the fact that they just lost by double-digits at home to Idaho. Lafayette is playing with zero confidence right now and they are so limited offensively. They come in ranked 107th in the country at just 364 ypg.
You might think this is a good matchup for the Ragin’ Cajuns. They come in ranked 29th against the run, allowing just 126.6 ypg. Georgia Southern almost exclusively runs the ball, averaging 54 attempts a game. One thing to keep in mind with Lafayette’s run defense is they have played a lot of poor rushing teams. The teams they have played are only averaging 3.8 yards/carry.
It’s one thing to stop the run against a traditional rushing attack. However, the Eagles bring a difficult option attack to the table. They key here is that Lafayette only has 4-days to prepare for this game. On top of that, this is the first time they have played Georgia Southern since they joined the Sun Belt, so there's going to be a lot of unfamiliarity with their schemes.
If the Ragin’ Cajuns have any trouble at all here against the run, this one could get ugly in a hurry, as Lafayette is not built to play from behind, especially on the road.
JACK JONES
North Carolina -10½
North Carolina has a lot to play for right now. The Tar Heels need to win out in ACC play and have Virginia Tech lose to be Coastal Division champions. That’s why they will not be looking past Duke this week as their goals are right in front of them still.
The same cannot be said for the Blue Devils, who are 0-5 in ACC play and just 3-6 on the season. They aren’t going to be going to a bowl game because they still have road games against Pitt and Miami to close out the season. They will be motivated to face a rival like UNC, but I don’t think it’s really going to matter.
The Blue Devils are gassed and beat down mentally after back-to-back 3-point losses to Georgia Tech and Virginia Tech. They keep showing up to play every week, but it’s going to take its toll with all of these close losses in a row. I don’t think they can keep it up this week, and they’ve been outgained in seven of their past eight games overall.
UNC has clearly been on a mission here of late, going 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in its last three games overall. It started with a 20-13 win at Miami as 6-point dogs as the Tar Heels outgained the Hurricanes by 98 yards. They then outgained Virginia by 235 yards in a 35-14 road win. And they outgained Georgia Tech by 118 yards in a 48-20 home win last week, and because they won so handily they’ll have a lot left in the tank against Duke this week.
I just don’t believe the Blue Devils have the firepower on offense to keep up with the Tar Heels. UNC is averaging 34.2 points, 460 yards per game and 6.8 yards per play this season. Duke has been held to 24.1 points, 399 yards per game and 5.2 yards per play this year. And I would argue that the Tar Heels have been better on defense as they give up just 5.4 yards per play while the Blue Devils allow 5.9 yards per play.
We’ve certainly seen the past two seasons that the Blue Devils haven’t had the firepower to keep up. UNC won 45-20 in 2014 as 5-point road dogs, outgaining the Blue Devils 592 to 378 for the game. Last year the Tar Heels won 66-31 as 7-point home favorites while racking up a whopping 704 total yards on Duke.
Mitch Trubisky legitimately might be the first quarterback taken in the 2017 NFL Draft. It would be hard to argue with the numbers his is putting up this season. Trubisky is completing 70.3 percent of his passes for 2,707 yards with 19 touchdowns and only two interceptions. He has added five rushing scores on the ground.
Plays against a home team (DUKE) – after having lost 6 or 7 out of their last 8 games against opponent after having won 3 out of their last 4 games are 34-7 (82.9%) ATS over the last five seasons. The Tar Heels are 4-0 ATS in their last four road games. UNC is 6-0 ATS in its last six games after allowing more than 450 yards in its previous game.
DAVE PRICE
Denver Nuggets +6
The Denver Nuggets have been a great bet in the early going as they are clearly one of the most improved teams in the NBA. They have gone 5-2 ATS this season, and while they're just 3-4 straight up, 3 of their losses have come by 3 points or less. The Nuggets have played 6 of their first 7 games on the road as well. Now they're at home and will be amped to face the two-time defending Western Conference champ Warriors. The Warriors have been good fade material as they are just 3-5 ATS this season. They will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after a win over the lowly Mavericks last night. Denver played Golden State very tough in the last 2 meetings last season, winning 112-110 as 9.5-point home dogs, and losing only 108-111 as 15-point road dogs. The Nuggets have a great shot of pulling the upset here tonight.
SCOTT RICKENBACH
Stars vs. Flames
Play: Over 5½
These teams have combined for just 4 unders in 13 all-time meetings in Arizona. Winnipeg comes into this game riding a streak of 4 straight overs as they have scored an average of 4.5 goals per game in their last 8 games. The Coyotes are off of a 4-2 win at Colorado and have scored 3 goals or more in 5 of their past 7 games. The Jets allowed just 2 goals in their blowout win over Dallas Tuesday but, prior to that, Winnipeg had allowed an average of 3.6 goals per game in their 5 prior games. Arizona allowed at least 3 goals in 9 of their first 11 games this season. The point is that neither one of these clubs is known for being overly strong in their own end and I expect a high-scoring match-up in the desert. Look for the over to improve to 5-2 this season in Coyotes games against teams with a losing record. That will improve the over in Jets games to 5-0 this month as both teams come in off of wins and they feel confident about pushing the pace in the offensive zone.
Chip Chirimbes
Utah at Arizona St.
Play: Arizona St
The perception of Arizona State at the moment is not good. They come in having lost 3 straight and 4 of their last 5, which followed their 4-0 start to the season. However, injuries have played a big part of their struggles of late. Getting a bye week after the Oregon game was huge. It allowed some of those guys who were banged up to get back to full strength. They should have a number of guys back for this game. Even though Utah comes in off a loss, the perception on the Utes is high right now. Only losing by 7-points at home to Washington was considered a success in the eyes of the public. Especially given what the Huskies have been doing to other Pac-12 opponents. While the Utes played Washington tough, you have to keep in mind that it was at home. Utah has had their struggles on the road, including a 23-28 loss at California. A very similar type of team to that of Arizona State. They also struggled to put away the Beavers in a 19-14 win at Oregon State. I just don’t think it’s going to be as easy as a lot of people think for them to win in Tempe. Especially with this being a weekday night game. The Sun Devil faithful will be out in full force. I also think Arizona State comes out with a chip on their shoulder in this one, given their 3-game skid. Keep in mind the Sun Devils are 21-10 in their last 31 conference home games. The only loss at home this season by just 5-points to a very good Washington State team. The other thing, is this Utah offense is really struggling in the passing game right now. The Utes have thrown for a mere 384 yards in their last 3 games combined. While Arizona State’s run defensive isn’t as good as their ranking (16th in the country), it’s clearly the strength of their stop unit. If they can feed off the home crowd, which they should, Utah could have trouble scoring in this one. The Sun Devils are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 at home after allowing 31+ points in 2 straight games. They are also 6-0 ATS in their last 6 at home after allowing 6.25 or more yards/play in their last game.
SPORTS WAGERS
ARIZONA +102 over Winnipeg
OT included. The Winnipeg Jets are 6-8 and they’re coming off a resounding 8-2 victory over the Dallas Stars. That victory sticks out and makes them a difficult fade here but we’re not going to be heavily influenced by one game. The Jets have proven time and time again that they cannot be trusted. Whenever they take one step forward, they subsequently take two steps backward. Coach Paul Maurice insists on using the two-headed goalie system and it keeps backfiring in his face. The Jets are also 0-5 against top-10 competition and 0-6 against top-16 competition. That speaks volumes and says that if you show up, Winnipeg becomes very beatable. The Coyotes usually show up. The Jets are also without Bryan Little, Drew Stafford, Mathieu Perreault and Joel Armia among others. That leaves them very vulnerable up the middle.
After a very slow start, Arizona has won three of four with only loss occurring against the Ducks. The Coyotes have played the fifth toughest schedule in the league (Winnipeg’s schedule is ranked 24th) thus far and they’re 1-2 against top-10 teams and 2-3 against top-16. The Coyotes, just like the Jets are two games under .500 at 5-7. In their three recent victories, Arizona took two minor penalties or fewer in all three so it would appear that being disciplined is a key part of their strategy. That’s a good approach against the Jets, who often take foolish penalties at the worst times possible. We’ll now lean to this host at home. The ‘Yotes have more determination, consistency, grit and a system they believe in while the Jets remain all over the map.
Dallas +113 over CALGARY
OT included. The Stars are coming off an 8-2 loss in Winnipeg so their stock is low. They are also 4-9 overall, which also decreases their stock. However, when a team gets embarrassed like Dallas did against Winnipeg, not only are they anxious to get back on the ice, it is also a wake-up call of sorts. Dallas may not be as good as they were a year ago but they are much better than their record indicates. They are a top-10 team in Corsi for during five-on-five play with 58.4 chances per 60 minutes. The Stars have outshot six of their past seven opponents. They outshot Minnesota 29-15 but lost 4-0. They outshot Columbus 38-28 and lost 3-2. They are still creating plenty of chances but the puck isn’t going in for them the way it did last year. Dallas also suffers from poor goaltending, which is something we do not like to get behind but Calgary’s goaltending is just as bad. More influential is that a response by Dallas is in order.
There are a couple of things working against the Flames tonight. First, they've been off since Sunday where they wrapped up a four game road trip with a record setting 23rd straight loss in Anaheim. They were also blown out by the Kings 5-0 the night before. Being off for three full days and returning home from a trip is the perfect recipe to come up flat. Brian Elliott has not been the savior the Flames had hoped when they signed him and now his confidence is pretty much shot. Elliott has given up five goals in each of his last two starts. Situationally speaking, this is a poor spot for the Flames, who are not in good form anyway while it is a very favorable spot for the Stars in that they were humiliated last game out.
CAROLINA -105 over Anaheim
OT included. This is strictly a play on numbers. In our November 3 podcast, Episode 10 (at about the 10 minute mark), we talked extensively about the “Pinnacle” factor and how sharp an outfit they really are. While this does not apply to every game, it applies to this one because the Ducks are a well bet public team while the Hurricanes are not. On the overnight lines and this morning, Pinnacle was staying firm at -113 on Carolina, which was the highest price out there. They are also offering up a price (+102) on the Ducks. Bettors have options. In this case, anyone with multiple accounts can play Anaheim -110 at just about every sportsbook or they can take +102 at Pinnacle. Pinnacle is encouraging Ducks’ money and that is the very reason we are playing the Hurricanes here.
It’s still early in the day at the time of this writing, We are anticipating money coming in on the Ducks so we are going to wait until later to pull the trigger here. A better number is very likely forthcoming and if it is not (unlikely), we can always pass. Based strictly on Pinnacle’s sharp numbers, Carolina is the prudent choice here.
GoodFella
Nuggets TT Over 107
These Nuggets are the 4th ranked club in the NBA in pace. They get the Warriors in a back to back spot tonight & on their HOME floor. I fully expect these Nuggets to really play an up tempo fast paced game to try and wear down these Warriors eventually. Golden St. simply not the same club defensively this season, with them losing their two best interior big men (Bogut & Festus). I feel confident this will be a very fast paced game & unless these Nuggets have an abnormal game shooting, I really like them to eclipse their Team Total in this spot this evening. I'm on the NUGGETS Team Total going OVER 107.
Wunderdog
Winnipeg @ Arizona
Pick: Winnipeg -110
Winnipeg blew out the Stars 8-2 on Wednesday as rookie Patrik Laine recorded his second hat trick of the season and now leads the league with 11 goals and also has 15 assists. Both teams had 30 shots on goal but Connor Hellebuyck made 28 saves for the Jets to up his record to 4-4-0. Michael Hutchinson is expected in goal tonight. Arizona bounced back from a 5-1 loss in Anaheim to beat Colorado 4-2 on Tuesday. Jordan Martinook scored two goals and Max Domi had a goal and two assists against the Avalanche. Louis Domingue made 25 saves and he is now 4-6-0 with a 3.64 goals-against average and .896 save percentage. Winnipeg has won eight of the last 10 meetings and the Coyotes have won only 14 of their last 58 games against Central Division teams. Arizona is last in the NHL allowing 3.67 goals per game.
Stephen Nover
Miami -130
The Bulls are playing without rest and in action for the fifth in seven days. As much as Dwayne Wade would like to shine in his return to Miami there's a major fatigue factor he and the team face. Wade is 34 and played 34 minutes in a hard fought Chicago loss to Atlanta last night.
The Bulls are 5-11 ATS the last 16 times playing on the second of back-to-back games. Chicago has played better at home this season. The Bulls are 1-3 away from United Center. Miami has covered 12 of its last 16 home games and went 4-0 SU and ATS versus Chicago last season.
This is a home game Heat president Pat Riley doesn't want to lose. So a concentrated effort should be forthcoming from the Heat, who are getting solid years from their two key players Hassan Whiteside and Goran Dragic.