Free Picks for Thursday, November 16th, 2017 from some of the nations best and worst handicappers
DAVE COKIN
SAINT LOUIS VS VIRIGINIA TECH
PLAY: VIRGINIA TECH -14
Much of the college basketball community is bullish on Saint Louis to take a huge step forward this season. Travis Ford has definitely upgraded the talent level of the Billikens, no argument there. But I’m not quite ready to tab this team as a cinch to climb the A-10 ladder and find themselves dancing come March Madness.
Don’t get me wrong, I fully expect Saint Louis to be vastly improved. But I’ll at least suggest the Billikens have to put these pieces together and that usually doesn’t happen overnight.
As for Virginia Tech, watch out. I like this edition of the Hokies quite a bit. They’re in a very strong ACC so I’m not sure how high Virginia Tech can climb in the conference standings. But make no mistake, this is a very good team that could be borderline Top 25 material.
If this game is played one month from today, I probably wouldn’t get involved at the current price tag. But this early in the season, I believe the Hokies are likely to be more cohesive and I expect them to be able to push the pace they prefer tonight. No bargain on the spread, but I will be looking at the Virginia Tech side in this one.
Brandon Lee
UCLA vs. USC
Play: USC -16
The ugly loss to Notre Dame has lit a fire under this USC team, as they have since went a perfect 3-0 SU and 3-0 ATS, beating Arizona St on the road 48-17 as a 5-point favorite, Arizona 49-35 as a 7-point home favorite and Colorado 38-24 as a 13.5-point favorite. Even with them laying nearly 3-scores, I think there's some great value with the Trojans in this one.
As you can see from the scores, USC's offense has been racking up the points. They are simply going to have a field day here against UCLA and that horrific defense of theirs. The Bruins simply can't stop the run, as they rank 130th in the country giving up 302.3 ypg on the ground. USC had over 330 yards rushing in both their wins over the Arizona schools and should easily top that mark here.
I know UCLA can score and that offense is the only reason this line isn't bigger, I just don't think they will be able to score enough to keep this within the number. USC's defense isn't great, but it's capable of getting stops. Not to mention I think they are going to come out fired up in their final home game and last tune up before the Pac-12 title game.
Lets also not overlook how bad the Bruins have been on the road, UCLA is just 2-9 ATS in their last 11 road games and are only scoring 22.8 ppg away from home during this stretch. It's also a plus they won last week, as they are just 1-8 ATS in their last 9 off a conference win. USC on the other hand is 12-3 ATS in their last 15 home games off 3 or more consecutive wins.
Ray Monohan
Warriors vs. Celtics
Play: Over 215
These two offenses should provide an entertaining one on Thursday, making this worthy of a free play here.
You know exactly what you're going to get out of the Warriors. This team pushes the ball up and down the floor as quick as possible and has so many different weapons that can burn you. The Warriors are putting up 123.7 points per road game, just a ridiculous number.
Boston meanwhile has made the case for being the best in the East. They are putting up 103.3 points per home game this year and continue to push the issue offensively and really attack. They'll have their chances against this Warriors defense, that really doesn't do a good job closing out on shooters.
Some trends to note. Over is 12-5-1 in Celtics last 18 home games. Over is 17-7 in Warriors last 24 overall.
Chase Diamond
Tulsa vs. South Florida
Play: South Florida -22
This game has the 2-8 Tulsa at the 8-1 South Florida. South Florida is the best AAC team IMO and will get a chance to prove that versus UCF next week so possible letdown this week but I think this team is focused to blowout this Tulsa team as big as possible as they try to get into the top 25 and a biggest bowl game for the school. Tulsa has lost 3 straight games and although this is a super square play I think USF wins big Thursday.
Ben Burns
Warriors vs. Celtics
Play: Celtics +7
More than 3,000 miles east of Oakland, the Celtics are reaping the rewards of a lightning-fast rebuild, and they take the ultimate test tonight when the defending champs come to Boston. Each is streaking – 13 wins in a row for the Celtics and seven straight for the Warriors. The Celtics have been doing it behind the offensive play of Kyrie Irving and a team defense that ranks No. 1 in the NBA. The raucous crowd will test the foundation at the TD Garden, and the Celtics will cover if not win outright in a game that has the potential to make the NBA a three-team playoff league instead of just a private party involving the Cavs and Warriors.
Larry Ness
Panthers vs. Sharks
Play: Sharks -161
The 6-9-2 Florida Panthers are in San Jose to take on the 10-6 Sharks and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side.
The Sharks are surging, they’ve won six of their last seven, most recently against the Canucks and Kings.
The Panthers are scuffling, they’ve lost six of their last eight. Florida looks primed for a letdown here as well after it came from behind to knock off the Stars 4-3 in a shootout in its latest action.
Florida is an atrocious 30th in the NHL in goals against per game, conceding 3.76 per contest.
In contrast, San Jose allows just 2.25, the best GAA in the league.
I’ll point out as well that the Panthers are just 3-11 in their last 14 on the road, while the Sharks are 5-1 in their last six at home.
There’s no reason for San Jose to look past Florida today and I expect it to make the most of this favorable matchup. Consider laying the price in this one.
Mike Anthony
Illinois State vs. South Carolina
Play: South Carolina -9.5
Illinois State came up short in their opener behind a poor defensive performance as the Redbirds went on to lose to FGCU by a final of 87-98 on the road. Illinois State was elite on the defensive end last year and we didn’t see any of that in the Redbirds’ opener. . South Carolina has been elite defensively thus far giving up 56 points per contest on average, which ranks 29th in the nation, and this group will likely rank near the top of the nation all year in defense. South Carolina has been spreading the ball around with 5 players averaging at least 8 points per game. We like what we’ve been seeing out of South Carolina so far this season taking care of business against respectable mid-major competition. Illinois State is a rebuilding group right now and as a result we like South Carolina to get the job done with this early 1130am ET tip.
Jimmy Boyd
Southern Miss vs. Michigan
Play: Michigan -22
The Wolverines failed to cover as a similarly priced favorite in their last game, as they only beat Central Michigan 72-65 as a 22.5-point home favorite. I believe that's created some value here with Michigan against the Golden Eagles. That's a good Chippewas team that played their hearts out against their in-state big rival. Southern Miss went just 9-22 last year with a 6-12 record in C-USA. It's amazing how far this program has fallen. From 2009 to 2014 this team was averaging right around 20 wins a season. They are now 20-63 in 3 years under head coach Doc Sadler. It doesn't look any better in 2017 with the loss of leading scorer Quinton Campbell and just 2 starters back. Note that last year the Golden Eagles had a 49-point loss to FSU and 42-point loss to Mississippi St. Look for this one to get ugly in a hurry and the Wolverines to win here by 30+.
Jim Feist
Titans at Steelers
Pick Under 44
We fully expected a flat Steelers team last week laying double digits at the Colts and played on the Colts as our hi-roller Platinum Play. Now both clubs have just the four days off between games to prepare for this contest. The Titans have covered the last three in this series, winning two straight up. In addition, the Titans are on a four game win streak and have held all four opponents to 22 or less points. The Steelers are also on a four game win streak and have held their four opponents to 17 points or less. I expect a lower scoring contest here and with the Steelers lay at or on 7 points or more. The Titans are 3-8 O/U their last 11 games when playing a team with a winning record. Meanwhile, the Steelers are 1-7 O/U in their last eight game on grass and 15-35-1 O/U/P their last 51 overall.
Eric Schroeder
My free play for tonight is in the NFL, where I'm playing Tennessee and Pittsburgh to stay under the posted number.
The oddsmakers have installed the Steelers as a 7-point chalk, and so you'd think they believe the AFC North leaders will be dictating the tempo tonight. Well, Pittsburgh's defense is its strength, and the Steelers have stayed under in eight of nine games this season.
That tells me the Steelers are playing such a dominating game defensively, they're confident enough in the stop unit to make enough plays and not worry about putting points up. That's why Pittsburgh is scoring an average of 20.8 points per game.
The Titans have allowed 16.3 points per game in their last three outings, while the Steelers have given up 15.3 in their last three.
We're in store for a physical tussle, as this one will be lucky to get out of the 30s.
4* Titans/Steelers Under
Tommy Brunson
Thursday's comp play is South Alabama plus the points at La Salle.
The Jaguars likely won't win this game - they are the +14 point dog after all - but this line is a little too rich this early in the season for the Explorers.
South Alabama was just 14-18 last season, and they are returning only 2 starters from last year's squad, but this impost is a few hoops too many to be bestowing on the Jags.
La Salle coach John Giannini is looking for a more defensive effort from his team this season, so expect the possessions to be a little more regulated this season from the Explorers.
La Salle does have a Saturday game against Northwestern up in Connecticut on-deck, so look for them to do enough to win tonight, but not cover.
Play South Alabama.
3* SOUTH ALABAMA
Jeff Benton
Your Thursday freebie is the Celtics plus the points at home against the Warriors.
How can I not take the points?
I mean, all Boston has done is win 13 straight games entering play tonight, and now you want to give me a full 3 baskets with the hottest team in the Association!?!?!?
OK, I'll bite!
Not only has Boston won 13 in a row on the year, but they have definitely held their own against the defending NBA Champs, as the C's have won outright in 2 of the last 3 series meetings, and bring a 4-1-1 spread mark the last 6 series meetings into this one, and a 6-2-1 against the spread overall mark the last 9 times these teams have faced one another.
Golden State will look to make a "statement" here, and they may very well hand the Celtics the straight up loss, but against the spread I will take my chances with the home underdog.
Boston the play plus the points.
3* BOSTON
Jack Brayman
Let's keep this 16-4 win streak rolling, as I'm playing the Los Angeles Kings on the puck line tonight, over the Boston Bruins.
If the Boston Bruins thought it was rough playing the Anaheim Ducks last night, wait'll they hit the ice with the Los Angeles Kings.
See, neither the Bruins nor the Ducks are playing good hockey right now, but the Kings are playing exceptional hockey, sitting in second place of the Western Conference with 24 points.
Boston has lost four straight and hits the West coast for the second time this season, arriving in L.A. after last night's 4-2 loss in Anaheim.
The Bruins have struggled on the road all season, with their only victory coming in Phoenix against the abysmal Arizona Coyotes. In their other five road games, the Bruins have been outscored 24-13. And to have to play the second of back-to-back nights here is horrible.
Kings win big.
2* KINGS -1.5
Doug Upstone
Hofstra vs. Dayton
Play: Hofstra +2½
Dayton lost their head coach and several good players. They beat Ball State 77-76 recently and that same Cardinals club just lost by 39 at Oklahoma. In this situation, we are looking to Play Against neutral court teams like the Flyers off a close home win by three points or less, a good team from last season who won 60% to 80% of their games. In the past two decades these teams are 7-28 ATS in this spot.