Pro Computer Gambler
Warriors vs. Celtics
Play: Warriors -7
In database history, road favorites between -3 and -10 points on the spread averaging 99+ points per game are 90-44-3 ATS 67.2% after allowing 55 or more points in the first half of their last two games. The Warriors are 13-3-1 ATS (5.68 ppg) since Mar 20, 2017 as a road favorite
John Martin
Rockets vs. Suns
Play: Suns +12½
I think the Houston Rockets are getting a little too much love tonight because of the fact that Chris Paul is expected to make his return from injury. Now they're being asked to go on the road and lay a ridiculous 12.5 points to the Phoenix Suns tonight. These teams play similar up-tempo styles, and I think the Suns can at least hang around enough to stay within this number. The Suns have been poor this season, but they have only lost three of their last 12 games by 13 or more points.
Dave Price
Tulsa vs. South Florida
Play: Tulsa +23
The South Florida Bulls are in a tough spot here from a mental standpoint this week. They have their biggest game of the season on deck against UCF next week that will decide the AAC Championship. It will also likely get one of the two of them into the Group of 5 bowl game. I don't think the Bulls will be 100% focused on beating Tulsa this week, let alone winning by 23-point points to cover this lofty spread. Tulsa has some impressive performances this season, losing only 51-54 at Toledo, beating Houston 45-17, which is the same Houston team that handed USF its only loss, and only losing 34-38 at SMU after blowing a late lead. I think the Golden Hurricane can hang around in this game given the tough situation for South Florida. Tulsa is 7-0 ATS in road games vs. good offensive teams - scoring 31 or more points/game over the last 3 seasons. The Golden Hurricane are 14-5 ATS in their last 19 road games and 9-2 ATS in their last 11 vs. a team with a winning record. This is their bowl game.
SPORTS WAGERS
Carolina +105 over N.Y. ISLANDERS
OT included. The Islanders are 9-6-2 after 17 games while the Hurricanes are 7-5-4 after 16 games. Additionally, the Islanders have not lost at home during regulation with a 5-0-2 record at the Barclays Center. That sets up the Hurricanes as a live dog because they’re the superior team that is very likely to hold a significant possession edge here. Carolina is the league’s top possession team. On that fact alone, they are worth a bet when taking back a price. The ‘Canes have outshot their last seven opponents and most of those were by a wide margin. They outshot Colorado 60-27 during that span and also outshot Florida, 48-31, Anaheim, 37-25 and Chicago 38-30 among others. Carolina’s record is not better simply because its shooting percentage was low but that’s starting to even out. The ‘Canes have scored three goals or more in four straight and in six of their last seven games.
The Islanders are a middle of the pack team in just about every metric. They rank 10th in Corsi for, 15th in Corsi against, 15th in power play percentage and 17th in Expected Goals for per 60 minutes (xGF/60). What all that suggests is that the Islanders are a risky favorite and a live dog and that’s how we like to play them. The Isles winning percentage at home is unsustainable and it’s also worth noting that their goaltending, whether it’s Greiss or Halak, is below average. We’re after teams’ that are taking back a price and that figure to win the time of possession battle in the offensive end. The Hurricanes check both those boxes.
Pittsburgh -½ +145 over OTTAWA
The Sens 8-3-5 record might be the league’s most misleading record thus far. Ottawa is dangerous because of its ability to score goals with its top two lines but its third and fourth lines are a wasteland and so is its defense. The Sens are a bottom five team in Corsi Against per 60 in five on five play. They are also a bottom five team in Corsi +/- at -74. The Senators have won two in a row and three of their last four but those victories occurred against Colorado (twice) and Detroit once. In between, the Sens lost to Vegas, 5-4. To recap, Ottawa’s last four games have been against Vegas, Detroit and Colorado twice with the latter two games being overseas in Sweden. Five days later, the Sens are back home playing the Penguins. These are unchartered waters in that regard and we can’t imagine for a second that the Sens energy level will be as high as it should be. When the Jacksonville Jaguars and Baltimore Ravens played overseas and played the very next week without a bye (the only two teams to do so), they both looked lethargic in their respective losses. The Sens have had even less time to regroup or to get reinvigorated. This wager is largely based on the Sens returning from overseas.
The Penguins are not in mid-season form but when they kick it into gear they still might be the best team in the NHL. Pittsburgh’s Corsi Against numbers are awful but we’re not going to put as much emphasis on its under-the-hood numbers as much as others because they are back-to-back Stanley Cup winners and it would be unreasonable to expect their intensity levels to be high every game so early in the season. They’ll kick it into gear after the All-Star break but this might be one game that their intensity level will be high. Ottawa and Pittsburgh played in last year’s East Final that went seven full games. The seventh game went into OT so the Sens were a shot away from eliminating the Penguins. A playoff series like that ignites a strong rivalry and we trust the Pens will be ready here. It may also surprise you to learn that the Penguins shooting percentage during 5-on-5 play ranks dead last in the NHL at 5.31%. That’s a number that is in for a correction to the good and the Sens defense combined with Craig Anderson’s .895 save percentage is right in line to aid it. Anderson is on the decline, as the years and mileage are starting to take a toll. Aside from the situational advantage and that they’re the superior team, the Pens have a big edge in goal too.
Washington -½ +125 over COLORADO
We’re not going to go into a lot of detail regarding this game because we’re simply playing the same angle here as we are in the Pittsburgh/Ottawa game. The Avalanche are returning home from their back-to-back games in Sweden and will take the ice five days later upon their return. If you’ve ever traveled overseas or been on a nine to 10-hour flight, then you’re aware that jet-lag is a real thing. These two teams, Colorado and Ottawa not only made that long flight once, but they did it twice within the span of one week and it would be completely unreasonable to expect either one of them to be sharp.
Furthermore, the Caps are coming off an ugly 6-3 loss in Nashville (Barry Trotz’s old stomping ground) so you know he and his team is not in a very good mood. The Caps have issues to be sure but what they do have is perhaps the best goaltending in the league, not to mention a massive situational edge here. That prompts us to move in.
EDMONTON -½ +136 over St. Louis
The Blue Notes are the West’s top team with a 13-5-1 record, thus making them one of the NHL’s most overvalued teams. While the Blues are a legit playoff team, they are not THIS good. That presents us with an opportunity here, as the market once again puts too much weight on results and not performances. St. Louis is 3-3 over its last six games with victories over Arizona (in OT), New Jersey and Toronto. Against the Maple Leafs, St. Louis won 6-4 in a very even game that saw Fredrik Andersen surrender six goals on 32 shots. The Blue Notes rank 12th in Corsi For, 8th in Corsi against and 22nd in xGF/60. The Blues are good but they’re not close to being as dominating as their record suggests.
The Oilers are the opposite. Edmonton’s 7-9-2 record is the result of nothing but good old fashioned bad fortune. The Oilers dominate time of possession almost every game but a weak (correctable) 73% penalty kill has cost them more than one game. Edmonton’s penalty killing percentage is unsustainably too low. The Oilers shooting percentage is second worst in the NHL at 5.36, so that, too, is in line for a major correction to the good. The media is always discussing what is wrong with Edmonton. The local media is putting heat on them too but just like the market drives the numbers, the media drives the market into thinking the Oilers are a struggling franchise. Wrong. The Oilers are playing outstanding without the results. At BET365 today, the Oilers are 25-1 to win the Cup which is the same price that they have the Canucks. Right after you bet on Edmonton today, make a bet on the Oilers to win the Cup too because the prices on both are wrong. Win or lose, Edmonton in this price range in its own barn is a steal and must be bet.
Jimmy Boyd
Titans at Steelers
Play: Titans +7
I like the value here with the Titans catching a touchdown on Thursday Night Football against the Steelers. Tennessee is a team that is sitting at 6-3 on the season, but are getting zero respect. No one is talking about this team, despite the fact that they come in having won 4 straight. Pittsburgh has also won 4 straight, but it hasn't been pretty the last two games. They were lucky to leave Detroit with a 20-15 win and even more fortunate last week to walk away from Indy with a 20-17 victory, as they trailed 3-17. I know the Titans had to score late to get a 24-20 win at home against the Bengals, but they should have never let it get to that point, as they had a 108 edge in total yards and 27 first downs to Cincinnati's 15. I just feel Pittsburgh is going through the motions right now and that's a recipe for disaster in these Thursday games. It's also worth noting that the Titans come in off 2 straight home wins and that put them in a very profitable spot, as they are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 road games after 2 straight home wins. Pittsburgh is also a team that has history of not covering this time of year, as they are just 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games played in November.
Tony Finn
Indiana State at Auburn
Play: Indiana State +9
This neutral-court early-season contest is the first college hoops game on the Vegas basketball betting board today. Tipoff is scheduled for 11:30 a.m. at TD Arena in Charleston, South Carolina. College Basketball Free Pick: Auburn vs. Indiana State.
Don't sleep on Indiana State in non-conference events this season. The squad won their season opener against Indiana by 21 points and did so as 15 point underdogs. The Auburn Tigers received plenty of media attention this past summer. However they did so under questionable circumstances. Four assistant basketball coaches from major NCAA programs were arrested in September for fraud and corruption. The transgressions covered a number of NCAA and Federal violations. Included in the group of four was Arizona’s Emanuel “Book” Richardson, Auburn’s Chuck Person, Oklahoma State’s Lamont Evans, and Southern California’s Tony Bland.
The distraction that has been front and center at Auburn this summer and into the regular season will take a toll on the team and it begins today in the first round of the Gildan Charleston Classic. Auburn scored triple digits in a season-opening win over Norfolk State but today's task of solving ISU will be much more difficult.
College basketball pundits will argue that the Sycamores are in over their heads in this affair. The school hasn't recorded back-to-back wins against Power Five opponents since 2012. That season Indiana State won two straight in a holiday tournament, the Diamondhead Classic, when they defeated the Ole Miss Rebels and Miami Hurricanes.
The Tigers season opener in which they had five players score in double-digits assisted in today's handicap and should, for the most part, be ignored. Most relevant today is that two of the Tigers top scorers from last season are being held out indefinitely in relation to the Person investigation.
The Sycamores won't be phased by Auburn's tempo and if they have the same success from beyond the arc that they did playing on the road in their season opening win against Indiana they will be 2-0 to start the season. And do so as large dogs in both events. ISU was 17-for-26 from 3-point range against Indiana and don't shy from firing long-range shots. Brenton Scott and Jordan Barnes were a combined 11-for-16 from beyond the arc in the opener.
The early ISU win over Indiana was impressive and necessary to give this Sycamores team confidence. They get a program that is distracted, missing key pieces to their 2016-17 success and on neutral ground today.
Key Trends
The Tigers have cashed on the OVER at a 12-2 clip in their last 14 games.
Auburn is, however, 10-4 UNDER the total in their last 14 non-conference affairs.
Indiana State is 7-2 against the spread in their last 9 neutral site events.
Wunderdog
Florida @ San Jose
Pick: Under 5.5
Florida defeated Dallas 4-3 on Tuesday for its first OVER in four games and the Panthers have allowed a total of nine goals their last four games. San Jose has gone UNDER eight of its last nine contests, including a 2-1 win at Los Angeles on Sunday. Roberto Luongo is expected in goal tonight and he has a .919 save percentage on the season and Martin Jones will start for the Sharks and he has recorded a 2.13 GAA and .925 save percentage. The Sharks have gone UNDER five of their last six after a win and they are 33-14-10 UNDER their last 57 home games. Florida has stayed UNDER four of its last five road games.
Raphael Esparza
Take South Florida (-22) over Tulsa
Two weeks ago Memphis 41-14 waxed Tulsa at home, and Thursday night Tulsa travels to South Florida and the Bulls will have no trouble taking care of business and covering this big number. In South Florida's last home game they lost to Houston 28-24, and I don't see them having the same trouble in this home game. The Bulls will dominate on both sides of the ball, and the Bulls offense will be too much for Tulsa to handle. Tulsa is 2-5 ATS in their last 7 conference games and the South Florida Bulls are 7-1 ATS against a team with a losing record.
Rob Vinciletti
Tulsa vs. South Florida
Play: South Florida -23
South Florida should run this one up big here as they have covered the last 3 with rest, 7 of 8 vs losing teams and 6 of 8 in November and 4 of 5 at home if the total is 63 to 70. Tulsa allows over 545 yards on defense and USF averages over 500 on offense. The Golden hurricane have been down graded to a light drizzle this year at 2-8 and have failed to cover the last 5 after amassing 165 or less yards. Look for South Florida to coast to a cover here tonight.
Ken Thomson
Belmont Middle Tennessee St
Play: Belmont +7
Middle Tennessee State is dominant at home and no doubt the fave in Conference USA but Belmont is always scrappy and should keep this one close. The Blue Raiders were luck to escape with a 5 point road win at Murray Sate while the Bruins beat Vandy by 9 at home after a tough last minute loss at Washington to open the season. I think this one goes to the wire. For MTSU Nick King former Memphis / Alabama forward Nick King has averaged 24 ppg in first two contests for HC Kermit Davis and along with Giddy Potts ( 11 ppg / 7 RB ) are the focal point in the Blue Raider offense. Belmont has their big two as well with Dylan Windler (21 ppg/ 11 RB) & Amanze Egekeze (20 ppg/6RB) leading the Bruin attack. The catalyst of the team is unselfish PG Austin Luke ( 7 assisits ) per contest. If Belmont gets out slow they could get dusted as the Murphy Center gets loud of late with the success of the Blue Raiders.I think it's a 3-6 point game one way or the other!
OC Dooley
Southern Utah +1.5
This is a previously "unscheduled" Best Bet reacting to arguably a STUNNING move offshore where San Jose State (opened at most locations as a full 3 point road favorite) has been bet "down" to 1-and-a-half even though in a preseason coaches poll Southern Utah was picked to finish #12 in their "non" power league conference. One of the keys to this wager surrounds the TOUGH SCHEDULE of Southern Utah who have already faced 2 quality opponents (Oregon State and Boise State) in the highway while in contrast San Jose State (best player of a year ago transferred out of the program opened against a Division III foe. In game-two San Jose in front of the "home" fans were blown out by another opponent (University of San Diego) which is also relatively low-rated. Tonight is only the second all-time clash in this series (initial was a year ago where Southern Utah stayed within ten points of San Jose on the highway) and the rematch is AT Southern Utah