Free Picks for Thursday, November 17th, 2016 from some of the nations best and worst handicappers.
Vernon Croy
Arkansas State (+9) over Troy
This pick falls into one of my top CFB systems and the Red Wolves are 13-4 ATS in their last 17 games when playing a team with a winning record. The Red Wolves are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games after a win and they have been a covering machine, going 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games overall. The Red Wolves are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games against the Trojans and the Trojans are just 1-5-1 in their last 7 games featured on Thursday night. Play Arkansas State ATS with confidence and make sure you get on my 7-Unit MNF Bookie Buster as I look to make it 6 straight MNF winners.
DAVE COKIN
UCONN AT LOYOLA MARYMOUNT
PLAY: UCONN -6.5
Perhaps the most surprising result to start the new season is the UConn Huskies being 0-2. It’s really hard to believe they lost home games to Wagner and Northeastern. That’s not meant as an insult to those two upset winners, particularly a Northeastern entry that might be pretty good. But it’s sure somewhat stunning to see UConn sitting at 0-2.
I would expect the Huskies to be 1-2 after they duel Loyola Marymount tonight. Connecticut simply has not been able to put the ball in the basket so far. But the Huskies are not turning the ball over, so I certainly feel this is just one of those blips that shouldn’t keep happening to what is a talented team.
Loyola is a middle of the road WCC team at best, and that might actually be a generous opinion. The Lions don’t really don anything especially well. Plus, their preferred style of play probably doesn’t work here. Loyola likes to do some pressing and as previously noted, the one area Connecticut has done well has been ball security.
UConn is still going to have to shoot the basketball better tonight than they did against Wagner or Northeastern. I think there’s a good chance the Huskies will do exactly that, as one they beat the Lions defense, they should get some pretty easy looks.
Connecticut also won’t be taking anything for granted after starting the campaign 0-2. Call it a tough break for the hosts, but they’re likely to get a very focused Huskies squad tonight, and I don’t see Loyola being able to hang in for 40 minutes. I’ll recommend laying the points with Connecticut tonight.
Marc Lawrence
Saints vs. Panthers
Play: Over 51
Edges - Panthers: have have played OVER the total in 8 of the last 11 games in this series, including 4-0 OVER the last four. Saints have gone OVER the total in 12 of 16 road games off a loss when facing a division foe off a loss., and OVER in 21 of 30 division away games when facing a foe off loss. With that look for a well lit scoreboard tonight. We recommend a 1* play in the OVER total in this game.
Carlo Campanella
Saints vs. Panthers
Play: Saints +3½
These Saints are only 4-5 SU, but they're better than it looks as they opened the season with 3 straight losses. They're an improving team that heads into Thursday Night Football on a 4-2 SU & 4-1-1 ATS winning streak since October 2nd, which includes a 41-38 home victory over these Panthers back on October 16th. Carolina finds themselves favored once again based on their reputation from winning last year's NFC Championship despite the fact that they're only 3-6 SU & 2-6-1 ATS this year. Those 3 wins look even worse when you know they defeated the 49ers (1-8), Rams (4-5) & Cardinals (4-4-1), who combine for a 9-17-1 losing record. MUST take the points with a Saints crew that's averaging 29.4 points per game and have already hung up 41 points on this Panther's defense, especially knowing that Carolina has been held to 17 points or less in 4 of their last 7 games.
Carlo Campanella
Saints vs. Panthers
Play: Saints +3½
These Saints are only 4-5 SU, but they're better than it looks as they opened the season with 3 straight losses. They're an improving team that heads into Thursday Night Football on a 4-2 SU & 4-1-1 ATS winning streak since October 2nd, which includes a 41-38 home victory over these Panthers back on October 16th. Carolina finds themselves favored once again based on their reputation from winning last year's NFC Championship despite the fact that they're only 3-6 SU & 2-6-1 ATS this year. Those 3 wins look even worse when you know they defeated the 49ers (1-8 ), Rams (4-5) & Cardinals (4-4-1), who combine for a 9-17-1 losing record. MUST take the points with a Saints crew that's averaging 29.4 points per game and have already hung up 41 points on this Panther's defense, especially knowing that Carolina has been held to 17 points or less in 4 of their last 7 games.
Sean Murphy
Winnipeg at Philadelphia
Play: Over 5½
The Jets are fresh off a somewhat surprising 4-0 home win over the Blackhawks two nights ago. I'm counting on another strong offensive performance here, but I'm not convinced the Jets will hold up particularly well defensively.
Note that prior to Tuesday's shutout, the Jets had allowed at least two goals in regulation time in nine consecutive games. They'll be hard-pressed to hold down an explosive Flyers squad that is coming off a subpar performance against Ottawa on Tuesday.
Philadelphia has had some trouble keeping the puck out of its own net (what else is new?), but the good news is the offense continues to hold its own, scoring 36 goals in regulation time over its last 11 contests.
The last two meetings in this series have been relatively low-scoring but this will be the first matchup this season.
Rob Vinciletti
Philadelphia vs. Minnesota
Play: Minnesota -11
The Wolves have covered the last 2 as a home favorite of 10 to 12 and the winning team has covered in all 10 of their games. The Sixers are on the road with no rest off a big home win over Washington and have failed to cover 3 of 4 on the road. Road dogs like Philly that were home dogs of 5 or more last night vs a team off a home dog loss as a dog of 4 or less while scoring 100 or more have failed to cover 85% since 1989. Look for Minnesota to win and cover.
Larry Ness
Philadelphia vs. Minnesota
Pick: Minnesota
The 2-9 Philadelphia 76ers visit the 3-7 Minnesota Timberwolves Thursday night in the first game of TNT’s doubleheader. Minnesota is the NBA's youngest team (averaging 23.6 years of age), while the 76ers are fourth-youngest team in the league. Philadelphia opened the season with seven straight losses but last Friday's 109-105 OT win at home over the Pacers snapped a streak of 44 straight losses in the months of October and November but Philadelphia quickly followed with blowout road loss in Atlanta (117-96) and Houston (115-88). However, the 76ers won for the second time in four games last night, holding onto a big lead at home in beating the Washington Wizards 109-102. The 76ers shot 54.5 percent and had 30 assists (on 42 field goals), both season highs.
Minnesota allowed the Hornets to pull away in the second half in a Tuesday home loss (115-108), which kind of put the brakes on what the team had hoped was some built up momentum. Minnesota entered Tuesday’s contest having won two of its previous three games, with the loss coming against the NBA’s hottest team, the LA Clippers. Minny’s two wins were impressive showings, a 123-107 road win in Orlando plus a 125-99 home win over the Lakers, a game in which Andrew Wiggins scored a career-high 47 points. The T-wolves own a terrific trio of talented young players in Wiggins (26.6 PPG), Towns (22.0 & 8.8 ) and LaVine (19.7 PPG) and expectations are that Minnesota will soon be knocking on that postseason ‘door!’
The 76ers opened the season without veteran guard Jerryd Bayless (wrist) plus young forwards Nerlens Noel (knee) and Ben Simmons (foot). They have also been managing the minutes restrictions on centers Jahlil Okafor and Joel Embiid. However, Embiid is getting about 22 minutes and averaging 18.8 & 7.3. Okafor has come off the bench and in 19 minutes, has averaged 11.3 & 3.9. Veteran forward Ilysova (12.9 & 4.8 ) has been an excellent addition but the bottom line is, Philly averages just 96.8 PPG (27th), while allowing 108.3 PPG (25th) on 46.8% shooting (29th).
Center Joel Embiid (foot) is slated to play after being rested on Wednesday but Jahlil Okafor, who scored a season-high 19 points last night before fouling out, is expected to be rested in this contest. The 76ers are playing for the fifth time in seven days and own one of the NBA’s weakest benches. Philly is 0-4 SU (1-3 ATS) on the road this season, getting outscored on average, 115.8-to-98.0 PPG. Lay the points with the T-wolves!
Jim Feist
Chicago at Utah
Pick: Under
Both teams play strong defense for their demanding coaches. Chicago Bulls coach Fred Hoiberg called a 113-88 win over the Portland Trail Blazers on Tuesday his team's "most complete" game so far this season, and it marked a third straight win and a strong way to kick off a six-game road trip. The Bulls held their last three opponents under 100 points and limited the Trail Blazers to 35.8 percent from the floor (and 9-of-34 from 3-point range) on Tuesday. Guard Rajon Rondo sat out Tuesday after suffering an ankle injury in Monday's practice and is day-to-day. Chicago is on a 15-7-1 run under the total, 16-5-1 under on the road. Utah can play tough defense, too, 7-1 under vs. a team with a winning straight up record. Jazz guards Rodney Hood (illness) and George Hill (thumb) sat out Monday and are both day-to-day. The Under is 7-1 in the last 8 meetings, including 7-1-1 under the total at Utah.
Jimmy Boyd
Arkansas State +8½
I just think we are getting an inflated line here because of the Trojans being ranked in the Top 25 (AP Poll). While a great accomplishment, I’m not buying there only being 24 teams better than Troy.
Sure the Trojans have the better overall record, but both of these teams come in at 5-0 in Sun Belt play. Arkansas State has been a completely different team since they started out the year 0-4. I think this a much more evenly matched game than the spread here would suggest.
These two teams have played 3 common opponents. Troy is averaging almost 7 points and 110 yards more than Arkansas State in these games. However, the Red Wolves are allowing almost 90 yards fewer on the defensive side of the ball.
While Troy’s ranks 38th in the country in total defense, they are 106th against the pass, allowing 265.1 ypg. Arkansas State has a decent passing attack, as they are 55th in the country at 243.4 ypg. I look for the Red Wolves to be able keep pace offensively in this one. I also think there defense is going to play well here.
I also think there’s a slight edge here to Arkansas State based on the schedule. Both teams are playing on short rest (4 days). The big difference is the Red Wolves come in off an easy game last week against New Mexico State. Troy on the other hand played a huge game against Appalachian State. I just think it’s going to be a lot easier for Arkansas State to rebound in this spot.
A lot of Troy’s success has been a result of them winning the turnover battle. The Trojans have a +9 turnover margin on the season. Arkansas State has turned it over just 3 times in their last 4 games. On top of that, they are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 against teams with a +1 turnover margin/game. The Red Wolves are also a dominant 16-5 ATS in their last 21 conference games. Supporting a perfect 5-0 ATS mark this season.
Ray Monohan
Providence vs. Ohio State
Play: Providence +6½
The Friars head to Columbus to take on the Buckeyes and this is just too many points for Ohio State to be laying. The Buckeyes just aren't as good as usual this season. They struggled last time out against North Carolina Central as they simply do not have enough shooters, or the one caliber player to step up when the team needs it.
While we don't know much about Providence, as they've played just one game, they did beat a tournament team in Vermont in their opener. Providence showed they can shoot the 3 ball, which is something that will be a giant key here.
Some trends to note. Friars are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS win. Friars are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 Thursday games.
With this many points in a game that doesn't have a huge advantage for either side, the 6.5 has some value. Look for Providence to stay close in this one, with a chance to steal it later.
Chase Diamond
Philadelphia at Minnesota
Play Minnesota -11
Tonight we have the 2-9 Sixers at the 3-7 T'wolves. Now both these teams I really think are the future in the NBA as they both have very solid young talent but are off to a slow start. Sixers won last night in emotional fashion as a pretty big dog now they have to travel to play the hungry rested T'wolves not a good combo. The Sixers are a dreadful 4-24 Straight up and 9-19 33% ATS off win. Public is backing Minnesota but in this case they are correct. we will lay the big number here as I see the Sixers losing by 20 tonight.
Matt Josephs
Rutgers vs. DePaul
Play: Rutgers +2
Rutgers and DePaul play in the Gavitt Games as someone looks to continue their undefeated start. Rutgers has a 2-0 start and some decent talent which could keep them competitive in Big 10 play. They are led by Corey Sanders and Mike Williams and a decent bench. DePaul has played only one game beating Robert Morris 78-72 as 11.5 point favorites. The Blue Demons lost four players from last year's team that won just nine games. DePaul has covered just 14 of their last 30 home games. I think Rutgers is the better team and we just have to hope that they play like it.
Vegas Butcher
NYK @ WAS (no line)
Bookmakers are waiting to see if Wall and Beal play. Wall only logged 24 minutes yesterday so should be good to go today. Beal is very close to returning so I’d assume he’ll play as well. The Wizards are a mess though, sitting at 2-8 on the season. Both teams are on a b2b but the Knicks are in a 3in4 spot, while Washington had 3-days off prior to their game last night. With Porzingis (40 mins) and Anthony (37 mins) logging heavy minutes last night, fatigue could very well play a part today. Also important to note that Knicks are 1-4 SU/ATS on the road, while as bad as Washington has played overall, they’re 2-3 SU/ATS at home. The 3 losses came to CLE, HOU, and TOR, while the two wins were against BOS and ATL, all top-10 teams in the league. The line should be around -2/-3 WAS in this one I’d assume. Lean: WAS
MIL @ MIA (no line)
There are questions whether Winslow and/or Dragic will play, so that’s the reason for no line right now. Winslow didn’t work out yesterday so it looks like he might miss another game. Dragic did practice, so has a much better chance of suiting up. Bucks are on a b2b in this one with Parker (35 mins) and Antetokounmpo (40 mins) logging some heavy minutes last night. They were off for 3-straight days prior to yesterday’s game though. Keep in mind that this b2b set involves both road-games, so travel makes it even tougher of a spot. Depending on who plays for the Heat and on the spread in this one, Miami is most likely my lean. Lean: MIA
POR @ HOU -4
While Portland is 1-6 ATS at home, they’re a respectable 3-2 ATS on the road so far this season. Clearly the bookmakers have been over-valuing them at home. But is there value on them on the road, tonight? Rockets are in a b2b and 3in4 spot. They’re coming off a close game against OKC last night, where Harden, Ariza, and Gordon all logged 37+ minutes. Houston is getting Beverley back, and his perimeter defense should be a boost against a guard-oriented offense like Portland’s. The problem for Portland is that outside of Lillard and McCollum, the rest of the players are fairly terrible. Lillard can carry a team, but it’s tough to back the Blazers against a superior team on the road. Remember that 3-2 ATS record for Portland away from home? Their wins are @ DEN, @ DAL, and @ MEM…all mediocre teams. This one is an easy pass for me. PASS
PHI @ MIN -11
Philly only has 1 fewer win than the Wolves, yet they’re a double-digit dog in this one. Of course being on a b2b/3in4 spot doesn’t help. Plus this is 6th straight game being played in a different city for Philly, so plenty of travel for them here. Wolves are playing their 4th straight at home, and this team is nearing full strength with both Rubio and LaVine rejoining the starting lineup. Timberwolves are a better team and they’re in a better physical spot here no doubt. A blowout is certainly plausible and maybe even likely. But this young team doesn’t know how to win games consistently just yet, and laying this many points with them is tough. PASS
CHI @ UTA (no line)
Favors is out for Utah today, while Hill + Rondo are both question marks. Guess the bookmakers are waiting for their statuses to update before posting the line. This game will feature two of the slower paced teams in the league (UTA 30th / CHI 21st), two top-10 defenses, and both above average offenses. They’re also both top-10 teams. Chicago is coming into it on a 3-game winning streak, while Utah is off a home loss to Memphis, though Favors got hurt in that one and both Hill/Hood missed that contest. It’ll be interesting to see the line on this one. Lean: CHI