Scott Spreitzer
New York at Washington
Pick: New York
Neither team started the season well, but New York is showing signs of life winning two straight over Dallas and Detroit with Kristaps Porzingis becoming a dominant force for the Knicks. Porzingis poured in 35 points on 13 of 22 shooting against the Pistons on Wednesday and Carmelo Anthony added 22 points. Joakim Noah made his presence felt by grabbing 15 rebounds and Derrick Rose contributed 15 points. Meanwhile, the Wizards might have hit rock bottom after a 109-102 loss to woeful Philadelphia while the 76ers shot 54.5 percent from the field. John Wall scored 27 points and will likely attempt his first back-to-back game tonight although Bradley Beal is doubtful with a hamstring injury. The Wizards are just 2-8 ATS with no rest dating to last season.
David Banks
New Orleans @ Carolina
Pick: New Orleans +3.5
The Saints had won four of five games and were ready to take the lead over Denver last week when the Broncos blocked a PAT and promptly returned it for a game-winning score. It was a disappointing 25-23 loss and proves the inconsistency that has plagued New Orleans all season. Now, the Saints must take on NFC South Division foe Carolina, which also let a game slip away last week.
The Panthers led Kansas City 17-0 before losing 20-17 thanks to a late turnover. Carolina, last year’s NFC champion, is in danger of missing the postseason this year. The Panthers still have dates with Oakland, Seattle, and Atlanta remaining on the schedule. That is why Sunday’s game with the Saints is a must-win.
Playing at home, Carolina can’t let this one slip away. Panthers QB Cam Newton has had a far-from- MVP-like season. His back-to- back sacks against the Chiefs are representative of his 2016 season. What is really killing the Panthers though is defense. Their once-vaunted unit is now very mediocre. Carolina is 23 rd in scoring defense (25.1 points a game) and they have given up over 40 points twice this season, something normally unheard of from Ron Rivera-coached defenses. The Panthers defense will have to limit Saints QB Drew Brees and the NFL’s second-best scoring offense.
Dr Bob
New Orleans Saints @ Carolina Panthers
Two teams at the bottom of the NFC South because of their poor defensive play. Both teams are led by more than capable quarterbacks who have been putting up points this year. Drew Brees has been hyper-efficient in an offense that is averaging 29.4 points per game. And while Cam Newton has not repeated his MVP performance of last year, he is leading an effective passing attack averaging 6.7 NYPP (9th in the league). While the 29th ranked Saints passing defense is unsurprising, the Panthers inability to get stops for the 20th ranked pass defense combined with the -7 turnover differential are the big differences between this year and last. The advanced stats model leans to the Saints on the Road and Under, both are below model thresholds for plays.
Dr Bob
Louisville @ Houston
Houston was overrated when the season began and their opening day win over Oklahoma made the Cougars even more overrated. Houston actually started the season 4-0-1 ATS but they’ve failed to cover the spread in each of their past 5 games and my math model favors Louisville by 17 points in this game. However, Houston applies to a 46-8 ATS big home underdog situation and this is the type of game that I think the Cougars will play well in. I’ll pass on the side and lean with the under.
Arkansas St. @ Troy
Troy has cracked the Top-25 rankings and their sole loss, a 24-30 loss at Clemson, was actually the best game they’ve played all season. Troy is not really a Top-25 team but they are the class of the Sun Belt Conference and should end Arkansas State’s 5 game straight up and spread win streak (after starting the season 0-4 SU and 0-4 ATS).
Arkansas State actually isn’t much better during their 5 game win streak than they were in their first 4 games (they’ve just faced a collection of horrible teams) but the Red Wolves are pretty good by Sun Belt standards – rating at 0.4 yards per play worse than average offensively (with Hansen at quarterback) and 0.3 yppl worse than average defensively on a national scale.
Troy is actually a bit worse than average on both sides of the ball, rating at 0.2 yppl worse than average offensively (5.9 yppl against teams that would allow 6.1 yppl to an average team) and 0.1 yppl worse than average defensively (5.3 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.4 yppl). However, Troy has an aggressive defense that registers a lot of sacks and forces quarterbacks into bad throws, which lead to interceptions. Troy is not likely to continue to interception 1.9 passes per game but they do have a projected advantage of 0.7 turnovers in this game and an edge in special teams to go along with their modest advantage from the line of scrimmage. It all adds up to a double-digit win if these teams play like they’ve played so far this season and I like Troy minus the points. I’d take Troy in a 1-Star Best Bet at -7 points or less.
SPORTS WAGERS
CAROLINA -3½ over New Orleans
The Saints appeared to have last week's game over the Broncos wrapped up but a blocked extra point returned for two points cost New Orleans the game. It was a crazy finish that has been replayed all week. Despite the loss, the Saints have won four of their last six games and are getting some love from the pundits as an NFC South contender. While that's a real possibility, we're not excited about them in this spot travelling on a short week. The Saints are giving up over 400 yards of offense per game to their competition. It doesn't get much better on the ground, where they are giving up over 107 yards a game. Until their loss to Denver, New Orleans was on a nice run of covering five straight games. That has gotten some market attention for sure. When folks keep betting against a team and keep ripping up their tickets, the propensity would be to stop doing so, which is when we usually look to jump in. An extremely weak defense on a short week has zero appeal taking back these small points.
Carolina had last week's game with Kansas City literally ripped from the hands of receiver, Kelvin Benjamin. That fumble led to a K.C. field goal for the win. At 3-6 the Panthers are a big longshot to make the playoffs. Last year's Super Bowl dream season has become a nightmare for the Panthers. The big difference is last year they won most of the turnover battles while this year they’re ranked 29th in turnover differential. Turnovers are unpredictable but if we take them out of the equation here and hope that all things are equal than Carolina should put away this intruder like they have so many other times during the recent past. You see, the Panthers' offense has feasted on the Saints by putting up an average of just under 37 points per game in their last four meetings. Cam Newton has carved this Saints secondary/defense up to the tune of 12 touchdowns in those games. Yeah, the Saints nearly beat the Broncos in Week 10 but their level of play is almost always lower when they leave the Superdome and who knows if the effects of that loss last week will carry over onto the playing field. Besides that, the Panthers are certain to be more than motivated for this prime time game because that’s who they are. They love the spotlight and they love feasting on weak defenses. All of the above apply.
SPORTS WAGERS
HOUSTON +14½ over Louisville
Had Houston remained undefeated, this game could have easily been billed as the match-up of the year between two Heisman frontrunners but that was then and this is now. No matter how you break it down, one has to pay a premium to back the one-loss Cardinals here and that is not in our wheelhouse. Neither is spotting significant road points in a prime time Thursday nighter. Last year, these two teams combined for 65 total points in Louisville where quarterback Greg Ward, Jr. led the Cougars to a 34-31 victory over Jackson and the Cardinals. Again, that was in Louisville while this one is not.
Houston’s two losses against inferior opponents (SMU and Navy) led the Cougars to vanish quickly from the top-25 and the national radar, yet this team has not lost a step. Houston still compiles over 450 yards of offense per game, eclipsing over 30 points in all of their eight wins on the season. Many may forget that this is the same football team responsible for taking down a highly ranked Oklahoma on Labor Day weekend, where the Cougars simply outplayed the Sooners. Coupling this with their Peach Bowl win against Florida State, it is safe to say Houston will not be star struck in the least against Jackson and the Cardinals. We would venture to argue that Houston has the psychological edge in this contest. Ward and the rest of the Cougars know not only that they can hang with the Cardinals but that they can beat Louisville and Jackson in the most unaccommodating of environments. Despite a rather soft slate as of recent, Louisville has found themselves in peril on several occasions, first on the road against UVA where Jackson would salvage their campaign in the final minute and secondly falling behind 12-0 against Wake Forest at home before getting their offense firing on all cylinders. Sure, the Cardinals pull out the wins but this kind of approach would be hazardous and detrimental to their cause against a team like Houston, whom you simply cannot afford to give a lead. There is plenty of equity here, as Houston can certainly come in under the number or even pull off another upset with home field advantage working in their favor.
SPORTS WAGERS
San Jose -103 over ST. LOUIS
Regulation only. You’ll have to excuse us while we crap our pants over the Blues’ 4-1 victory against the Sabres on Tuesday. Buffalo was missing Jack Eichel, Tyler Ennis, Ryan O'Reilly, Zach Bogosian, Nelson Deslauriers and Dimitri Kulikov. That game was tied 1-1 going to the third. The Blues are now 8-9. They have three wins over their past eight games and those victories occurred against Colorado, Columbus (in OT) and Buffalo. In the return visit to Columbus one week later, the Blues were down 8-2 before making the final 8-4. The Blues have taken five minor penalties or more an incredible seven times over their past 10 games. In other words, they are playing roughly 17% of the game short-handed. Furthermore, after a hot start, Jake Allen’s save percentage is down to just .901. However, Allen has also posted save percentages of .667, .808, .800 and .852 in four of his last eight games.
San Jose is a disciplined, well-coached team that rarely beats themselves. When you play the Sharkies, you had better come up with something good or chances are you will lose. The Sharks have taken one minor penalty four times in their last eight games. One of those was part of coincidental minors. While the Blue Notes are taking five or six a game, San Jose has taken two or less in eight of nine and three or less in 14 straight. San Jose got buried by Pittsburgh in last year’s Stanley Cup finals. The Sharks had their chance for revenge this year with two early games against the Pens but they lost both times while being outscored 8-2. That brings us to San Jose versus St. Louis in last year’s playoffs, where the Sharkies buried the Blue Notes in six games (it should have gone five) while outscoring them in those four victories, 20-8. The only difference between then and now is that the Blue Notes are worse and Ken Hitchcock has been to more all-you-can-eat buffets.
This regulation wager is only available at Pinnacle and 5Dimes but if you don’t have an account there, playing the Sharkies with OT included is the recommendation.
Winnipeg +123 over PHILADELPHIA
OT included. Until the market catches up or realizes how good these Jets are, they must continue to be played when offered a tag against inferior competition. Don’t get us wrong, as these Flyers are a formidable opponent that are quite capable of defeating anyone at the Wells Fargo Center but if we’re playing value, then the Jets are the smart play for several reasons. First, Philadelphia has allowed 155 high danger scoring chances and they don’t have the goaltending to compensate. Only the Oilers, Rangers, Canucks and Coyotes have allowed more. Secondly, Philadelphia is 1-4 against top-10 competition and 1-5 against top-16. They have played the 26th ranked schedule in the league so the numbers reveal that the Flyers have been beating up on weak competition. The Jets are not weak.
Winnipeg has picked up 12 out of a possible 16 points over its last eight games. That coincides with Paul Maurice picking one goaltender and sticking with him as oppose to switching every game. The Jets have one regulation loss (to the Rangers) over their last eight games. Three of Winnipeg’s last four victories occurred against Dallas, Los Angeles and the red-hot Blackhawks. To give you an idea of how deep and talented this roster is, consider that the Jets are wreaking havoc with Drew Stafford, Bryan Little, Mathieu Perreault, Joel Armia and Tyler Myers on the rack among others. Perhaps for the first time in a while, the Jets have some serious swag about them. They are playing a winning and aggressive brand of hockey while expecting to win instead of hoping. The Jets will now embark on a five-game trip that begins here and we almost always like to back a team that is going good in the first game of a trip. With a big edge in goal, current form and just about everything else, Winnipeg is easy to pull the trigger on here.
SPORTS WAGERS
Valparaiso +13 over OREGON
With a shiny top-five ranking, Oregon will be spotting inflated points against virtually any opponent. The defending Pac-12 Champions have long established and reinforced a home court advantage that has made many opponents come to the Pacific Northwest quivering. Valparaiso is not one to be classified in that category. Valparaiso is not afraid of Power Conference opponents by any stretch, as they traveled here in 2015 and lost by just six points. With Valparaiso looking to once again assemble another campaign like we saw last year, this game plays perfectly into the Crusaders’ wheelhouse, as they will assuredly look to slay a big name opponent while coming in off-the-radar.
The Ducks were certainly an overachiever in 2015, as they captured an aforementioned conference championship and put together a storied run deep in to the NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament, qualifying as a #1 seed while making it all the way to the Elite Eight before they were sent off by the #2 seed in their region, Oklahoma. Over the span of their postseason run, the Ducks defeated teams they would normally be expected to lose to including perennial heavyweights Duke and Arizona. 2016 has been a bit bumpier for Oregon already, as they stand at 1-1 after losing ugly to Baylor on the road where their renowned offense was held to just 47 points.
For the Valparaiso Crusaders, business has resumed as usual after they finished as runner-up for the NIT hardware to conclude the 2015-16 season. Valpo has sprinted off to a 3-0 start, shearing their way through each and every foe they have come across. The quality of competition may not be as comprehensive as Oregon’s two-game docket so far but you can only play what is in front of you and Valpo won all three by 14 or more. Valparaiso utterly dominated the Horizon League for the most part last year, as they posted a mark of 16-2 in conference play. Valparaiso fell in overtime to Green Bay in the Horizon League Tournament Quarterfinals, the club that went on to win the conference outright. Even with the disappointing loss of a NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament berth, Valparaiso did not take their foot off the gas. In consecutive legs of the NIT Tournament, the Crusaders steamrolled teams like Florida State, St. Mary’s and BYU all of whom were on the bubble in their own right.
This year the Crusaders have some significant players to replace and will rely heavily on the newcomers and Jubril Adekoya. Adekoya is not a shot blocker like Vashil Fernandez, but Adekoya can score inside and out and will do a decent job on the glass. Coach Lottich should have that flexibility this year and the ability to play very big depending on the opposition and the situation. With that talent and flexibility, this is the team to beat in the Horizon League. Alec Peters (could have opted for the NBA draft) did not come back to go to the NIT. He came back to lead this team to the NCAA Tournament and he has the pieces around him to do just that. He also has the pieces around him to cover big points like the ones offered here.
Dave Price
Bucks/Heat Under 200
The Milwaukee Bucks and Miami Heat are two teams who prefer to play at a slower pace. The Heat rank 23rd in pace while the Bucks are 17th. Both teams will get after you defensively. The Heat rank 3rd in defensive efficiency, while the Bucks rank 11th. Scoring has been a problem for both of these teams as well. Miami ranks 29th in offensive efficiency, while Milwaukee ranks 15th. Miami is 17-4 UNDER in November games over the past 2 seasons. The Heat are 22-6 UNDER in their last 28 home games off 5 or more consecutive losses. The UNDER is 12-4-1 in the last 17 meetings in Miami.
Jack Jones
Timberwolves -11
The Philadelphia 76ers (2-9) are coming off a rare win last night over the Washington Wizards. But now they're in a very tough spot here as they'll be playing the second of a back-to-back and their 5th game in 7 days. They are short-handed right now as well.
Both Jahlil Okafor and Nik Stauskas are expected to be out tonight for the 76ers. That's important because Okafor led them in scoring last night with 19, while Stauskas finished with 15. Not having these two makes the 76ers at lot worse off than they already are.
And the Timberwolves are going to come out hungry tonight. They blew a 13-point lead at home against the Hornets and lost 108-115. This team is much better than their record as they have just had a problem with blowing big leads. Look for them to put it on the 76ers from start to finish and cover this 11-point spread with ease.
The 76ers are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games following a ATS win. Philadelphia is 0-4 ATS in its last four games playing on 0 days' rest. The 76ers are 5-13 ATS in their last 18 games following a straight up win.
Brandon Lee
Jazz -4
I like the Jazz here as a small home favorite against the Bulls. Chicago is getting a lot of love after winning and covering their last 3 games, including a 113-88 blowout win at Portland last time out as a 4-point dog. Utah on the other hand comes in off a 96-102 home loss to the Grizzlies as a 6-point favorite. That was a bad spot for the Jazz, as they were playing for the 3rd time in 4 nights and returning from a lengthy 5-game east coast road trip. Utah has had 2 days off since losing to Memphis an unlike the Blazers, who didn't show up to play against the Bulls, I look for a max effort here from the Jazz.
Scott Rickenbach
Coyotes vs. Canucks
Play: Over 5
5 of Vancouver's last 6 games have gone over the total as the Canucks have allowed 4.5 goals per game during this rough stretch. They face a Coyotes team looking to get back on track after a 2-1 OT loss last night at Calgary. Arizona, when playing the 2nd night of a back to back, has recorded an under just 11 times out of their last 30. Also, in road games with a posted total of 5 goals, only 5 of the Coyotes last 26 have resulted in an under. We are getting excellent line value with this total posted at 5 goals as the Canucks will be flying all over the ice after getting beaten 7-2 by the Rangers Tuesday. Vancouver will want to make the most of a team they know they can beat as they now host one of the worst teams in the league. The Canucks are 6-1 to the over this season in their games against teams with a losing record.
Bob Balfe
Ohio State -6.5
Ohio State has looked sloppy in their first two games which is why this line is pretty low. Providence is really going to miss departed players Kris Dunn and Ben Bentil in road spots like this. Ohio State has 6 guys on their roster with 1000 mins of playing time coming into the season and all of them are capable of scoring. There really isn’t much depth on this Friars team. At this point in the season I think the Buckeyes are a better play.
Nelly
Arkansas St. at Troy
Play: Troy -8
The Thursday night undercard should decide the Sun Belt title as Troy survived a close game with Appalachian State last week and Arkansas State has won five in a row since being swept in non-conference play. There aren’t many quality wins for the Red Wolves but the Sun Belt dominance in recent years is hard to ignore. A Troy squad that has out-rushed all nine foes this season and holds a great turnover margin will be tough to beat at home. These teams last met in 2013 and the great run for the Red Wolves has come with four of five games at home as they were out-gained with big turnover help in the season’s only road win. Four teams in the Sun Belt have winning conference records and Arkansas State hasn’t faced any of those teams, while two of Troy’s five wins came against the top four squads in the conference. This game should decide the title as Arkansas State won’t have to play Appalachian State but the statistics paint a huge edge for Troy on both sides of the ball, particularly when looking at the home and road splits. Troy has tremendous balance on offense while rarely taking sacks with an excellent protection scheme. The Red Wolves have marginal numbers with just 3.5 yards per rush this season and 57 percent passing and on a 5-0 ATS run Arkansas State looks a bit overvalued as this line powers to double-digits for the Trojans. Look for Troy to return to the top of the Sun Belt with another big win as the short week also gives the host a big advantage.
Wunderdog
Nashville vs. Ottawa
Pick: Nashville -133
Nashville has good balance across the board at #12 in goals scored, and fifth on the power play, while winning three of four. The defense is off a bad game to Toronto, but has been playing much better than that, allowing two total goals during its three-game win streak, anchored by newcomer defenseman P.K. Subban. They get goalie Pekka Rinne back tonight. They are a facing an Ottawa team with no offense at #27 in the NHL in goals scored, dead last on the power play. The Predators matchup well and have taken five of the last six meetings.