LV Traders
Villanova vs Tennessee
Pick: Villanova
Tennessee is coming off an emotional win against Purdue and is full of confidence. Expect the Vols to come out with plenty of energy again and hang around for a while. However, the Wildcats will eventually wear them down with execution, efficiency, and excellence. The Wildcats have too much size and will grind UT down with an inside-outside game. Jalen Brunson will dictate tempo and Villanova come out on top.
Jim Feist
Chargers at Cowboys
Pick: Chargers
The LA Chargers may only be 4-6 on the season, but they have played much better. The Chargers are coming off a shellacking of Buffalo last week, 54-24. The Chargers lost the previous two weeks by eight at New England at three at Jacksonville. They have now covered five of their last six games. Meanwhile, the Cowboys are struggling to score and fantasy owners are losing their patience. With Ezekiel Elliot suspended the club has scored 16 points in two games, both lopsided losses to Philly (9-37) and Atlanta (7-27). The offense and defense has both been horrible. The good thing is that the Chargers are not a high scoring team. Throw out that Buffalo game where they intercepted five passes. Before they they scored 17, 13, 21 and 17 points. In fact, this team has scored over 24 points just one time prior to their explosion over the Bills.The Cowboys look like a team that has phoned in their games since that Atlanta contest. The Chargers play with heart even in their losses. Take the Chargers here with a team that wants to win most.
Bruce Marshall
Giants at Redskins
Play: Over 44.5
Maybe that vote of confidence for beleaguered HC Ben McAdoo from owners John Mara and Steve Tisch helped the G-Men pull out of their latest skid last week vs. Chiefs. But in weeks when Mara and Tisch have not spoken publicly about their team, NY is just 1-8 SU. And we’re not sure Eli and the laboring “O” got the message after being limited to FGs only vs. KC. Though style points only count in figure skating and synchronized swimming, Washington and Kirk Cousins (3 more TDP vs. Saints) certainly look more capable than the Giants. And Redskins have had a look in all of their many recent losses vs. foes much better than NY. This time, we trust the eye test. Note Jay Gruden on 24-7 “over” run.
Vegas Butcher
Minnesota at Detroit
Play: Minnesota -3
The Vikings were -3 home favorites in the first meeting between these two teams, and they’re -3 road favorites in the rematch on the road. Bookmakers’ mistake? Unlikely. Minnesota outplayed the Lions in that first game. They outgained them 5.2 YPP (Yards Per Play) to 3.7 YPP (miniscule!), which is over 40% variance in efficiency. The reason they lost was going 0 for 3 on their own fumble recoveries, while Detroit went 1 for 1 when they put the ball on the ground. Basically, Lions recovered 4 out of 4 available fumbles, which is extremely lucky. In addition, this is the game when the Vikings lost Dalvin Cook early in the 2nd half to the ACL injury. Cook proceeded to fumble on his own 29 yard line on the play and the Lions scored the go-ahead TD 5 plays later. Vikings consequently missed a 39-yard FG and turned it over on downs inside Detroit’s 10-yard line, unable to put up any points in the process. It’s hard to adjust on the fly when you top offensive weapon (Cook) gets hurt, and the Vikes never recovered. I think we’ll see them play a much better game in the rematch. I know playing on the road on Thursday isn’t ideal, but Minnesota was home last week and the flight from Minneapolis to Detroit is pretty short. In addition, this team has been waxing opponent as of late, with an average margin of victory of almost 13 points in the last 5. Minnesota has faced above average opponents like LAR, WAS, and BAL during this time. By comparison, Detroit has barely beat Chicago last week, had an extremely difficult time with the Browns at home the week prior, and beat a Rodgers-less Packers squad the week before that. Here are their wins this season: ARZ, NYG, GB (no Rodgers), CLE, CHI, and…. MIN of course, which I’ve detailed above. Here are Detroit’s losses: ATL, CAR, NO, PIT. This team is good, but they’re simply not good enough to hang with the top squads in the league. I expect the Vikings to show their superiority in this rematch and to end their 3-game losing streak to the Lions.
Dr Bob
Minnesota Vikings @ Detroit Lions
Lean – DETROIT (+3/+2.5) over Minnesota
The Lion’s resurgent offense has them back in the playoff picture for this Thanksgiving Day game. Detroit is averaging 6.6 yards per play in their last 4 games without a credible rushing attack as Matthew Stafford threw for 8.9 yards per pass play during the stretch. However, I expect some Lions’ regression this week against a Vikings defense allowing 4.7 yards per play, which ranks 3rd in the NFL. Everson Griffen’s 10 sacks rank 4th in the NFL and Minnesota’s pass rush will enoy a good matchup against a Detroit offensive line allowing an 8.4% sack rate (27th).
The Vikings ground game is showing signs of life for the first time since the Davlin Cook injury. Minnesota gained 4.9 yards per rush last week against the Rams and they will face a struggling Lions rush defense on Thursday. Detroit surrendered 6.3 ypr combined over the last three weeks and I expect the Vikings to find success running the football.
I thought my model would favor Minnesota but the line has moved and now there is no line value. However, the technical analysis does favor Detroit, as the Lions apply to a 198-119-4 ATS match-up situation that plays high-scoring teams at home against good defensive teams. I’ll lean slightly with Detroit based on that angle.
Los Angeles Chargers @ Dallas Cowboys
Strong Opinion – DALLAS (+2) over Los Angeles Chargers
Cowboys left tackle Tyron Smith is expected to play in this game and he’ll provide a boost for the Dallas offense that averaged just 3.8 yppl and 8 points per game with him out of the lineup the last 2 weeks. Even without Ezekiel Elliott, the Cowboys rushing attack should excel against a Chargers defense surrendering 4.9 yards per rush (31st).
On the other side of the ball, Dallas will be without linebacker Sean Lee again. Throughout his career, the Dallas defense is nearly a point per game worse when Lee is not on the field. However, I expect the Dallas defense to be motivated after being embarrassed last Sunday night and DeMarcus Lawrence, tied for the league lead in sacks, has an easy matchup against a banged up Joe Barksdale.
The look-ahead line for this game was Dallas -4 and we have seen massive movement based on last week’s disparate performances. The Chargers beat the Bills by 30 but were actually outgained in yards per play for the game and certainly benefitted from some terrible Nathan Peterman interceptions. Dallas definitely looked poor against the Eagles but I expect the return of Tyron Smith to improve their recent offensive woes and often the worse a team has looked in recent weeks the better bets they are. In fact, teams that scored less than 10 points for the second consecutive game the previous week are 37-8-1 ATS the last 10 seasons (31-4-1 ATS if they have at least one win on the season). If the opponent has a win percentage of .500 or less the record is 25-1 ATS, which applies here (the Chargers are 4-6). Dallas actually has a better record than the Chargers and my ratings favor the Cowboys by 1 ½ points with Lee out. There are also a few other good contrary situations that favor the Cowboys and the combination of a good situation and line value is enough for me to consider Dallas a Strong Opinion at +1 or more.
New York Giants @ Washington Redskins
Lean – New York Giants (+7) over WASHINGTON
Lean – Under (44.5)
Washington running back Chris Thompson will miss the rest of the season, which hurts the Redskins more than missing a typical running back would. Thompson has been responsible for 22% of Washington’s total yardage this season and is one of the most dangerous pass-catching running backs in the league. Rushing production is easier to replace than receiving production of running backs, as we have seen with Arizona losing David Johnson. Thompson’s 9.4 yards per target is extremely high for a running back and he is a large part of the Redskins 8th-ranked passing offense (2nd in receiving yards on the team) and Kirk Cousins will need to find other targets on Sunday that most likely will not be as efficient.
The Giants offense failed to reach 5 yards per play on Sunday for the fourth time in five games without their top two receivers, Odell Beckham and Brandon Marshall. Filling in for the injured Justin Pugh, backup right tackle Chad Wheeler will have his hands full going up against Ryan Kerrigan. Wheeler allowed 4 hurries in 37 pass blocks in his first start lined up against Justin Houston last week and his ability to protect Eli Manning may be pivotal in this game.
Still, there are reasons to believe the Giants offense could be effective. New York’s rushing offense ranks 16th since the Beckham and Marshall injuries and they have a nice matchup against a Redskins rush defense ranked 28th in my metrics. Furthermore, the Redskins have surrendered the second most receiving yards to opposing tight ends and Evan Engram, averaging almost 8 targets per game, should have good success.
Our model was on both of these teams last week (Best Bet on Washington and Strong Opinion on the Giants) and part of the reason I liked the Giants is because I thought they’d want to prove that they haven’t quit. With this game being nationally televised I certainly expect the Giants to play with pride once again and if New York plays to their potential then they are likely to stay within a touchdown. I’ll lean with the Giants at +7 or more and our model also likes the Under.
Jeff Benton
Thanksgiving freebie is Miss State as the home favorite over Ole Miss in this year's edition of the annual Egg Bowl.
After 2 straight Ole Miss wins, Miss State turned the tables in a crushing way last season, dumping the Rebels by a 55-20 count - and the Bulldogs were the +10 point underdogs in that contest!
This year Mississippi State stands at 5-1 straight up at home, their lone loss coming in a close on a few weeks back against #1 Alabama.
Ole Miss is just 1-3 on the road this year, that win coming their last time away from Oxford in an upset of Kentucky. Problem is, the Rebs will play this game without QB Shea Patterson, and my feeling is they are going to eventually lose touch against the better football team.
Yes, this is a rivalry game, but I see another blowout coming down the pike.
3* MISS STATE
Tommy Brunson
Big implications on this first of three Thanksgiving Day game from Ford Field, as Minnesota can in effect seal the NFC North if they can manage a win over their nemesis the Detroit Lions.
The Vikings are surging right now, winners of 6 in a row. They have also covered in each of their last 5 wins. Minnesota's last loss? You guessed it, October 1st at home against the Lions, 14-7. For some reason, Minnesota cannot seem to get by Detroit, as the Lions own a 3 game series winning streak over the Vikings, and they have won 6 of the last 9 overall series meetings.
A win today by Detroit would pull them to within one game in the division standings, as since the Lions have followed 3 straight losses, with wins in each of their last 3 games - 2-0-1 against the spread - Detroit is definitely a live-home dog this Turkey day contest.
These teams are quite familiar with one another, and for some reason Matthew Stafford just seems to have enough in the end to get his club over the hump when these teams play. 3 straight wins, and a 6-3 straight up mark the last 9 attests to that.
Take the points and the Lions.
3* DETROIT
Joey Juice
The Oregon State Beavers will face the St. John’s Red Storm in the Advocare Invitational, live from the HP Field House. The Red Storm just deatroyed Milloy, 71-43 Monday night, while the Beavers defended their home court and won 89-81 against Long Beach State.
Saint John’s is off to a super start to the season, and they are being led by their all-star duo of Shamorie Ponds and Marcus LoVett. I believe that both of these players will have strong performances vs this extremely poor Beaver defense they are about to face. All Opponents played thus far are shooting 41% from behind the three-point stripe against Oregon State. Suffice to say, their defense is not their strong feature.
To make matters worse, St John’s is solid defensively, holding opponents to 34.7% shooting, so even though this Beavers team is high octane on offense, I fully expect St. John's to contain them.
A quick look inside the numbers shows a clear pathway to victory for St John's. The Oregon State Beavers are in a slump vs the Las Vegas number, they are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games overall, 3-12 ATS in their last 15 non-conference games, and 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games against a team with a winning record.
Play the Red Storm.
3* ST. JOHN'S
John Martin
Central Florida vs. Nebraska
Play: Nebraska +5½
UCF is without its best player in B.J. Taylor due to a knee injury. Taylor averaged 17.4 points per game last season and is one of only three returning starters for the Knights. I'm not sure what UCF has done thus far to warrant being 5.5-point favorites over Nebraska here tonight. The Knights are 3-0, but all three victories were close as they beat Mercer 88-79, Gardner Webb 68-65 and William & Mary 75-64. All three games were at home and against suspect competition. Nebraska is 3-1 with its only loss coming on the road to a very good St. John's team. The Huskers are more battle tested having played the tougher schedule to this point.
Jack Jones
Vikings vs. Lions
Play: Under 45
I believe there's value on the UNDER 45 in this division rivalry between the Minnesota Vikings and Detroit Lions today. This will be the second meeting between the teams this season, and they are obviously very familiar with one another. That familiarity favors defense. It will also be played at a high intensity level with both teams fighting for playoff position and division supremacy.
But the main reason there's value with the UNDER is the fact that this head-to-head series has been so low-scoring over the past several seasons. Indeed, the UNDER is 7-1 in the last eight meetings. The Lions and Vikings have combined for 42 or fewer points in seven of those eight meetings. They have averaged just 31.2 combined points in those eight meetings, which is roughly 14 points less than this 45-point total. That's the kind of value we are getting with the UNDER here.
Plays on the UNDER on any team against the total (MINNESOTA) - revenging a close loss by 7 points or less to opponent, top level team, winning 75% or more of their games on the season are 22-4 (84.6%) over the last five seasons.
Minnesota is 6-0 UNDER vs. good offensive teams scoring 27 or more points per game over the past three seasons. The Vikings are 8-1 UNDER when playing against a good team with a winning percentage from 60% to 7% over the last three seasons. The UNDER is 8-1 in Vikings last nine road games vs. a team with a winning home record. The UNDER is 20-7 in Vikings last 27 vs. a team with a winning record overall.
Dave Price
Minnesota vs. Detroit
Play: Minnesota -2½
The Minnesota Vikings want revenge from one of their worst performances of the season in a 7-14 loss to the Lions in their first meeting this season. They gave that game away by committing 3 turnovers with 3 lost fumbles, while the Lions didn't turn the ball over once. The Vikings held the Lions to just 251 total yards in that game and should have won. The Vikings have reeled off 6 straight victories since and are rolling right now. The Lions were fortunate to beat the Bears last week as they gave up 397 total yards to a bad Bears offense and were outgained by 46 yards. The Lions aren't as good as their 6-4 record because they have been outgained in 7 of their 10 games this season. They are getting outgained by 16 yards per game on the season, while the Vikings are outgaining their opponents by 82 yards per game and are legitimately one of the top teams in the NFL. That shows on the field here Thursday.
SPORTS WAGERS
L.A. Chargers -1 over DALLAS
It’s Thanksgiving. It’s late November and things start to become clearer this time of year, as the cream rises to the top and the imposters fall out of the picture. We start to get a real sense of who is who and what it what.
There is a swagger and arrogance to the Dallas Cowboys that starts at the top and works its way down from Jerry Jones. The Cowboys went 13-3 last year and were just about everyone’s choice to repeat as NFC East champs. After a 27-7 thrashing by the Falcons to run its record to 5-4, Dallas had to make a stand last Sunday night at home to the Eagles. They led 9-7 at halftime and looked to be making an inspired run at the high-flying Eagles without Ezekiel Elliott, Tryon Smith and Sean Lee (who, to the surprise of nobody, is hurt again). Then came the second half. Dallas got humiliated and outscored 30-0. In the two games without Elliott and Smith, the Cowboys have been outscored 64-16, including 47-0 in the second half of those games. With Elliott still out among others, the ‘Boys depth has been tested and they have received about the worst grade possible. Four days later and feeling helpless, Dallas is not a team we want to get behind right now.
The Chargers feasted on five interceptions from rookie Nathan Peterman last week and only lost to the Jaguars by an overtime field goal the previous week. They have a chance at a Wildcard in that "if we win out and..." sort of way but the good news is that they believe it. The Chargers defense has been underrated all year but the losses have masked just how good they are. No opponent has scored more than 26 points on them all year. The problem is that the Chargers haven't scored more than 27 points in any game until last week but one dominant week can do wonders to a teams’ psyche. That momentum could easily carry over here. The Chargers discovered the secret to their offensive woes was finding ways to get the ball into the hands of their best players. Keenan Allen, their best receiver, got season highs in targets, catches, yards and touchdowns against the Bills. To get Allen loose, the Chargers moved him to different positions on the field, even getting him a rushing attempt early in the first quarter. The team made it a point to send the ball in the direction of Hunter Henry and rookie Mike Williams too. It helped open things up for Melvin Gordon, and the Chargers were able to have their best, most balanced game of the season. They’ll face a Dallas defense missing linebacker Sean Lee, the heart of the Cowboys.
This is essentially a playoff elimination game for the loser, with both teams on the fringes of their postseason races. The Chargers have plenty of momentum, recovering from disaster in Jacksonville to thump the Bills. They get a bit of a head start because Dallas played the Sunday night game. That matters because every edge does in this sport. It seems as if the Chargers are catching the Cowboys at the right time, as timing matters also. The Chargers will have the better players on the field, they are in the better state of mind, they have momentum and they have the true belief that something good is happening. Lastly, Pinnacle Sports was the first outfit to have the Chargers -2½ yesterday when everyone else was at -2. That matters also because when that outfit takes a position, it is more noteworthy than any statistic.
N.Y. Giants +6½ over WASHINGTON
This a tough spot for the Redskins. Before last week, Washington was 4-5 and still had a slim shot at the playoffs. They went toe-to-toe with the newly crowned Saints as a +9 point pooch and should have won if not for a complete fourth quarter meltdown. The 'Skins have now lost four of five and any shot at the postseason is now over. How are they supposed to get up for this game on a short week? While we rarely discuss injuries, it's impossible to ignore the infirmary in D.C. The Redskins offensive line has been decimated, their starting tailback is a rookie runner with two starts under his belt, and quarterback Kurt Cousins is still missing his favorite target, tight end, Jordan Reed. With 15 players on IR, Washington looks like the walking wounded. As they proved last week in New Orleans as well as in games against the Rams and Seahawks, the Redskins are capable of playing at a high level, but on the other side of that coin, Washington barely escaped a date with the 49ers and got trounced by the Cowboys.
Just to recap, the ‘Skins had a 31-16 lead late in the fourth quarter last week with their playoff hopes on the line. The Saints needed two TD’s with a two-point conversion just to tie it and they did. They also had to win it in OT which they did also. That loss was devastating and near impossible to bounce back from. Lastly, teams’ that lost in OT on Sunday who then play on Thursday are 5-23 ATS but this ‘Skins loss was about as bad as it gets. Kirk Cousins now has the unenviable task of trying to rally guys when they all know he won’t even be around next year.
The Giants' season was over long ago, so there is no worry about a letdown here after a surprising 12-9 home win over the Chiefs. A win over playoff bound K.C. shows that the Giants heads are still in this and now they play a hated rival on National TV. There is no doubt the G-Men are playing for pride at this point but misery loves company, and they have a chance to put the final nail in the Redskins coffin. 2017 might be the last season of “Manning” faces in New York, but Eli stepped out of his comfort zone last week with an uncharacteristically emotional speech before the K.C. game and his teammates responded. If this is Manning's swan song in New York, he's seems determined not to go out on a sour note. While the Giants are just 2-8 overall, where it counts, at the window, they are 4-3 when it comes to covering games when taking back a price this season. Big Blue has also been a high percentage play when battling the Redskins over the years by going 6-2 straight up and against the spread.
For the ‘Skins, last week’s heartbreaking loss comes on the heels of the Redskins losing a one score game to the Vikings in Week 10. The 'Skins have played two of the top teams in the NFC the last couple of weeks, and while they take a big step down in competition here, their mindset and plight has drastically changed from where it was two weeks ago when they still had playoff aspirations. Cover? Hell, we’d be surprised if the ‘Skins won, let alone cover.
Rob Vinciletti
Kansas St vs. Arizona St
Play: Arizona St. +4
This game is a round 1 matchup of the Las Vegas Invitational between the Big 12 and Pac-12 Conferences. The Kansas State Wildcats take on the Arizona State Sun Devils in a battle of undefeated teams both at 4-0 w. Kansas State stayed unbeaten as they blasted an inept Northern Arizona team on Monday night. Arizona State improved to 4-0 on the year as they beat UC Irvine 99-78 at home Sunday. The Sun Devils are averaging 95 points per game and are ranked 13th in scoring. They have won all their games by 20 or more. The Wildcats do it with defense but have not faced an offense with this type of ball movement. AZ. St is 4-0 ats vs BIG 12 Teams and has covered in 4 of the last 5 vs non conference opponents. The points are the play with 2 evenly matched teams.
OC Dooley
Cowboys +½ 1st Half
The Chargers franchise has a not appeared on the Thanksgiving stage since way back on 1969 when man landed on the moon so this is an unsual spot for the team. Of course Dallas has been dominated in consecutive games since the suspension of star rusher Ezekiel Elliott along with a myriad of injuries on both sides of the football, but they did lead in the FIRST HALF last time on the field before getting dominated by red-hot Philadelphia the rest of the way. Since the Chargers are unfamiliar with today's large stage I am grabbing the Cowboys in the OPENING HALF. It is amazing that Dallas has NOT covered the spread in SIX consecutive Thanksgiving appearances and the team has been bet from a "three point favorite" (opening offshore line) to a 1' point underdog (as high a two points) so I am personally dabbling with the opening half