Free Picks: Free Service Plays for Thursday, November 24th, 2016

Teddy Covers

LSU vs. Texas A&M
Play: LSU -5½

Texas A&M has two wins in the last six weeks. They beat New Mexico State. And they beat Texas- San Antonio; two games where they were favored by -43.5 and -26.5 points. It’s surely worth noting that they didn’t cover either pointspread – the Aggies last pointspread cover came all the way back in September in a ‘closer than the final score would indicate’ win over Arkansas.

The Aggies offense has been broken since starting QB Trevor Knight got hurt against Mississippi State earlier this month. Backup QB Jake Hubenak is a statue in the pocket and he doesn’t have a huge arm. That’s very bad news against the powerful LSU pass rush; a stop unit that has held every single opponent they’ve faced this year to 21 points or less. All four of LSU’s losses this season have come despite the defense largely controlling the flow.

The Aggies defense, like LSU’s D, has a great pass rush with Myles Garrett a potential #1 overall NFL draft choice next spring. But the Aggies stop unit has one major Achilles heel, likely to doom them in this matchup – an inability to shut down power rushing attacks.

The results don’t lie. A&M gave up 278 on the ground to Alabama and 365 on the ground against Mississippi State. Tennessee and Auburn both gained more than 200 yards on the ground against this stop unit as well. There’s a world of difference between the Florida front seven that LSU struggled to run the ball against last week and the A&M front seven that they’ll face this week!

The Tigers dominated Florida for extended stretches last Saturday. But with five ‘first and goal’ opportunities, LSU garnered only ten points. The loss wasn’t a ‘season killer’ for a squad that had already suffered three previous defeats. Their defense is primed to dominate a backup quarterback once again. And this week, we can expect the two headed RB duo of Leonard Fournette and Derrius Guice to rip off yardage in chunks.

The Aggies have allowed at least 29 points in each of their last for SEC games. If LSU approaches or exceeds that number – and I expect that they will – the Aggies will be hard pressed to stay competitive against the Tigers elite stop unit.

Sean Murphy

Redskins vs. Cowboys
Play: Redskins +7

We won with Washington on Sunday night in its rout of the Packers. While this will be a much tougher challenge for the ‘Skins, I believe they’ll be up to the task.

Thanks to a poor start to the season, I still believe Washington is an underrated commodity. The fact is, the ‘Skins have gone 6-1-1 over their last eight contests. But it’s Dallas getting all the press in the NFC East right now thanks to its nine-game winning streak. That works in our favor here as we’re being given a generous pointspread.

The Cowboys passed another test on Sunday, avoiding a letdown off a big win in Pittsburgh by ultimately pulling away for a 10-point win and cover against the Ravens. The Ravens actually gave Dallas more of a game than most were expecting, staying close the majority of the way. I believe the Redskins are better-suited to stage an upset, however.

Dallas took the first meeting in this series this season by a 27-23 score in Washington back in Week 2. Since then, we’ve seen the ‘Skins come together as a team and they’re in better position to give the ‘Boys a run on Thanksgiving Day.

Robert Ferringo

Florida State (-8.5) over Temple

FSU is by far the best team that Temple has faced in this early season. The Owls have already lost to New Hampshire and Massachusetts and they will dump this one at the Barclays Center in Brooklyn. The Owls just aren't any good. Obi Enechionyia can play. But the rest of the team is spare parts, and this is a clear rebuilding season for a team that I think will struggle just to get to the postseason. Florida State already hammered Iona and Winthrop, two teams that are probably better than Temple. The Seminoles have a pair of potential pros in Xavier Rathan-Mayes and Dwayne Bacon, and their best player may turn out to be freshman Jonathan Isaac. This is a team that is on the come up. And I think that after dominating four weaker opponents at home they are hungry to beat someone up in a marquee tournament. FSU has been terrible in tournament settings the past two years. But the six years prior to that Leonard Hamilton's squads were known for opening strong in neutral-site settings. I think the public will grab the points since Temple has been very good ATS this year. But Florida State should win this one by double-digits.

Raphael Esparza

Minnesota / Detroit Over 43

The Minnesota Vikings offense woke up last week at home against the Arizona Cardinals defense, and the Vikings scored 30 points to a much needed 'W'. Detroit comes into this Thanksgiving game winners of back-to-back games and five out of six. And Thursday afternoon the Lions offense will take control of the game. The Detroit Lions are averaging 25 PPG in their last 4 home games, and if Matt Stafford gets hot he should have success in the middle of the field and throw up some big passing numbers. Detroit is a perfect 5-0 O/U when playing on Thursday games and the Lions are 4-1 O/U at home against a team with a winning road record.

Vernon Croy

LSU (-5) over Texas A&M

This pick falls into one of my college football systems and I have LSU winning this game by 10 points against an Aggies team that is just 2-12 ATS in their last 14 games played during the month of November. The Aggies are also 0-4 ATS in their last 4 home games and 0-7 ATS in their last 7 games overall. The Aggies are 8-22 ATS in their last 30 conference games and 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games when playing a team with a winning record. LSU is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after putting up less than 20 points in their previous game and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game. LSU is also 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 games against the Aggies and the favorite is 5-0-1 ATS in the last 6 games played between these two teams. The Aggies have allowed 428 yards per game this season which ranks 73rd in the country, while LSU has allowed just 308.1 ypg which ranks 9th in the country. LSU has given up the least number of touchdowns in the country this season and just 14.6 PPG. Play LSU ATS with confidence as their defense steps up again Thursday night.

Harry Bondi

DALLAS (-7) over Washington

Today, there’s no way we are stepping in front of the Dallas Cowboys, who have won and covered a whopping eight-straight games and get to face a Washington team that’s fresh off a “Super Bowl” type win after beating NFC nemesis Green Bay on Sunday Night Football. Turkey Day has also been very good to favorites, which have gone 33-13 SU and 28-18 ATS dating back to 1980, and an even better 17-3 ATS when the favorite has a winning percentage of .800 or more.

The Real Animal

LSU / Texas A&M Under 47.5

Texas A&M only scored 28 points against the lackluster defenses of Ole Miss and Mississippi State. Then last week 23 points against UTSA. I can’t see them being very productive against the LSU D. QB Jake Hubenak has played in five games this year and had 10 or more pass attempts in all of them. He has six touchdown passes on the season including just one against UTSA. LSU is #9 in the country in pass defense and has allowed just five scoring strikes all season. By comparison Mississippi State is #118 in the category, Ole Miss is #60, and UTSA #90. Only three teams in the country (Michigan, Alabama, and Florida) have given up fewer points than the Tigers. Curiously Texas A&M is #82 in total defense when it comes to yards per game. But they are stingy in the red zone allowing just 21.1 points per game. The last two years the final score in this rivalry was 19-7 LSU in 2015 and 23-17 LSU in 2014. LSU 9-1 ‘UNDER’ this year while A&M is 8-3 ‘UNDER’. LSU 9-0 ‘UNDER’ on grass this season. The Tigers are 11-3 ‘UNDER’ versus excellent offensive teams averaging 450 yards or more per game the last three seasons. This one is kind of amazing. LSU head coach Ed Orgeron is 7-0 ‘UNDER’ versus excellent offensive teams that average 6.25 yards per play or more in his coaching career. I don’t know if I’m more surprised that LSU averages 6.6 yards per play or that Orgeron has only coached against seven opponents that qualify. A&M only had 268 total yards of offense against Alabama earlier this year. On the injury front, Leonard Fournette is listed as doubtful for LSU after playing sparingly in last week’s defeat to Florida. In fact reports indicate he did not travel with the team to College Station. Plus A&M QB Hubenak has a sore throwing shoulder but is still scheduled to start. He sustained that injury on his first attempt against UTSA. Trevor Knight remains out.

Vegas Butcher

Detroit Lions -2.5

This is a really early game on Thursday, with a 12:30 EST start. Thursday games are hard enough, but typically those are in the evening, with an 8:30 EST start. This one is a full 8 hours earlier, which makes it that much more difficult on both teams, but especially the one that has to travel in. Additionally, Minnesota is without Diggs, their best WR, and Terence Newman, their best CB. In addition, Harrison Smith, Eric Kendricks, and Captain Munnerlyn are all banged up. All are critical players. When these teams met a few weeks ago, it was a very even game with both averaging 5.0 YPP and scoring 16 points a piece in regulation. Lions didn’t have Slay, their stud CB, in that contest. He’ll be suiting up on Thursday. Detroit is healthier and they’re at home in an early Thursday game. Love the fact we’re getting them at less than a FG.

Teaser Steelers -2.5 & Saints -0.5

No Luck, seriously banged up Vontae Davis, and Donte Moncrief added to the injury report on Wednesday with a hammy issue. Colts’ 30th ranked defense doesn’t stand a chance here, and without Luck, I don’t think they have the firepower to hang with the Steelers. Pittsburgh by at least a FG.

As for the Saints, I described my feelings on Goff last week. The kid is not ready, plain and simple. Going into Superdome and taking on Drew Brees, there’s just no way the Rams hang in that one. Love the Saints to simply win the game.

Rob Vinciletti

Seton Hall vs. Florida
Play: Seton Hall +2½

The Pirates are rested and ready here tonight as they last played on Saturday knocking off an undefeated Iowa team on the road. Seton Hall is 6-0 with 5 or 6 days rest and have 4 returning starters back. They are 34th in the country in scoring and are 22-5 vs non conference teams and undefeated this year. Florida is also undefeated but ranks just 147th in scoring offense and has failed to cover 16 of 22 off a spread win and have not played anyone capable of giving them the game they will get tonight.

Sean Murphy

Redskins vs. Cowboys
Play: Redskins +7

We won with Washington on Sunday night in its rout of the Packers. While this will be a much tougher challenge for the ‘Skins, I believe they’ll be up to the task.

Thanks to a poor start to the season, I still believe Washington is an underrated commodity. The fact is, the ‘Skins have gone 6-1-1 over their last eight contests. But it’s Dallas getting all the press in the NFC East right now thanks to its nine-game winning streak. That works in our favor here as we’re being given a generous pointspread.

The Cowboys passed another test on Sunday, avoiding a letdown off a big win in Pittsburgh by ultimately pulling away for a 10-point win and cover against the Ravens. The Ravens actually gave Dallas more of a game than most were expecting, staying close the majority of the way. I believe the Redskins are better-suited to stage an upset, however.

Dallas took the first meeting in this series this season by a 27-23 score in Washington back in Week 2. Since then, we’ve seen the ‘Skins come together as a team and they’re in better position to give the ‘Boys a run on Thanksgiving Day.

Jack Jones

Steelers -7½

These are two teams with identical 5-5 records this season. One would think you would want to take the home underdog catching 7.5 points in that situation, but I’m not one of them. Even before it was announced Andrew Luck wasn’t going to play, it was clear to me that the Steelers were by far the superior team despite having the same record.

The Steelers have actually outgained each of their last four opponents despite losing three of those contests. And they didn’t have a healthy Ben Roethlisberger for two of them. Roethlisberger returned against the Cowboys and they should have won that game had they not failed on four two-point conversions. But the Steelers got back on track with a 24-9 win at Cleveland last week in which they outgained the Browns by 104 yards. They have now outgained seven of their ten opponents this season.

The Colts are one of the worst teams in the NFL in my opinion, and the numbers show it. They have actually been outgained in seven of their ten games this season. They rank 30th in the NFL in yardage differential, getting outgained by 41.0 yards per game. Only the Browns and 49ers have been worse in that department.

Now without Luck they have almost no chance of keeping this game competitive. Scott Tolzien will get the start after serving as Aaron Rodgers’ backup in Green Bay. He has not fared well in limited playing time, throwing one touchdown and five interceptions in his brief career. He’s going to be asked to go score for score with the Steelers, and I don’t think he’s capable of it.

The Steelers will hang a big number on the Colts here. Indianapolis gives up 27.3 points per game while ranking 30th in the NFL in total defense at 397.6 yards per game. Just last year the Steelers faced the Colts without Luck. They won that game 45-10 as 10-point home favorites while outgaining the Colts 522 to 240, or by 282 total yards.

Plays on road teams (PITTSBURGH) – after being beaten by the spread by 35 or more points total in their last five games, in weeks 10 through 13 are 52-20 (72.2%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.

Jimmy Boyd

Steelers -8½

This is a big number to lay on the road in a prime time game, but I don’t know how you take the Colts in this one. Indianapolis will be without starting quarterback Andrew Luck. That means the Colts are going to have to turn to backup Scott Tolzien. A former backup in Green Bay that hasn’t seen meaningful snaps in 3 years. In the limited action he’s played, he’s thrown just 1 touchdown to 5 interceptions on 90 attempts.

I just don’t think the books can set this line high enough. The only reason Indy is sitting at 5-5 is because of the play of Luck. He’s essentially put this team on his shoulders this season. In fact, I don’t think people realize just how much he means to this team. He’s completed 63% of his attempts with 19 TD’s to just 8 INT’s despite being under constant pressure. Tolzien simply doesn't know what he's in store for. Not only is he going to take some big hits, he's likely going to make some costly mistakes that lead to turnovers and quick scores for the Steelers.

I don’t know that the Colts would even have a win this season if Luck wasn’t at quarterback. They would be right there with the Browns as one of the worst teams in the league. They might even be worse. Keep in mind Pittsburgh was only a 8-point favorite last week at Cleveland. If you liked the Steelers against the Browns, no reason not to like them here (I had Pittsburgh as a 4* play against Cleveland).

Let’s not forget this is a Colts offense that can’t run the football and are 30th in the league defensively. It’s not like Indy can play it safe with Tolzien. He’s going to be forced to throw a lot and I just don’t think he’s capable of putting together the type of performance needed to keep this game close.

I think it’s also important to note this isn’t a game Pittsburgh can afford to lose. The Steelers are tied with Baltimore on top the AFC North at 5-5. They likely need to win the division to make the playoffs. They are going to come in looking to put away the Colts early and not give this team any hope.

Jim Feist

LSU vs Texas A&m
Pick: Over

LSU's offense has been jumpstarted since the coaching change, opening things up more. The over is 6-1-1 in the Tigers last 8 games after allowing less than 170 yards passing in their previous game. Texas A&M QB Jake Hubenak threw for 248 yards and a touchdown against UTSA. The Over is 4-1 in Aggies last 5 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.

Bruce Marshall

Gonzaga -25

Tough draw at Disney World for "The Q" against a robust Gonzaga side that sent out an early warning shot with its recent romp past San Diego State. As WCC enemies had feared, the Zags might even have more ammo this term, with Pac-12 transfer Gs Nigel Goss-Williams (via Washington) & Jordan Matthews (via Cal) already leading the team in scoring, while 7-0 frosh Zach Collins (scored 15 vs. Aztecs) appears ready to remove some of the interior scoring burden from 7-0 Przemek Karnowski and reduce the impact of the early defection to the NBA by recent star frontliner Domantas Sabonis.