Dave Price
Minnesota Vikings +1.5
This is all about revenge for the Minnesota Vikings, who lost a heartbreaker 22-16 (OT) to the Detroit Lions just three weeks ago. The Vikings thought they had won it with a 1-yard touchdown run with only 23 seconds remaining, but the Lions somehow managed to get down the field and make a 58-yard field goal to force overtime. They got the ball on their first possession of OT and scored a touchdown to win the game. It was yet another miraculous comeback win for Matthew Stafford, who seems to have one every time they win. The Lions are 6-4 this season, but all 6 wins have come by 7 points or fewer. I think they are definitely a flawed team and that shows up in the numbers. The Lions rank 28th in yardage differential as they are getting outgained by 26.5 yards per game on the season. The Vikings have outgained the Lions in 4 straight meetings in this series. The Vikings are 9-2 ATS as underdogs over the last 2 seasons. They are 37-15 ATS in their last 52 games overall. Minnesota is 14-6-3 ATS in the last 23 meetings, including 4-1 ATS in its last 5 trips to Detroit. The Vikings are 22-5 ATS in their last 27 games following an ATS win.
Chase Diamond
Redskins vs. Cowboys
Play: Cowboys -6½
This huge NFC East game has the 6-3-1 Redskins at the 9-1 Cowboys. Who when Tony Romo went down thought Dallas would be 9-1 not me that is for sure but this line should tell you all you need to know on what Vegas thinks of the Cowboys. Since September 18th the Cowboys are 9-0 ATS and show no signs of letting up. Redskins are 7-1 last 8 weeks ATS so both teams have brought the money for customers. Since 1980 NFL teams that are dogs of 6 or more points and off two ATS wins at home and scored 65 or more points are 0-12 ATS which is a huge trend to note.
SPORTS WAGERS
Minnesota +100 over DETROIT
The Lions are 6-4 but they could just as easily be 5-5, 2-8 or 0-10. Here’s a team that has had such extreme luck that the stat makers had to make one up for them. The Lions are the first team to win six of their first 10 games after trailing in the fourth quarter in all six victories. They are playing with fire and soon enough a good defense will burn them late. Offensively, the Lions have no running game to speak of and that continued on Sunday where they averaged less than a yard per carry against Jacksonville. Detroit's backs combined for 19 yards on 17 carries in Week 11. The Lions are 30th in the league with just over 79.5 rushing yards per game. They got away with their one-sided offensive attack in Sunday's 26-19 win over the Jaguars and they’ve gotten away with it numerous other times too but they'll face a much stiffer test against the Vikings here. Detroit’s charmed life is about to end.
The Vikes ended a four-game losing skid with Sunday's 30-24 win at home to the Cardinals. Against Arizona, the Vikings defense rebounded and looked much more like the unit that led this team to a 5-0 start. That score flatters the guests, as Minny's defense beat up the Cards by sacking quarterback Carson Palmer four times but he’s fortunate it wasn't 10. The Vikings have allowed the second-fewest points per game with 17.6 and are third in the league in yards allowed per game (306.9). These two teams met just two and a half weeks ago. The Lions won 26-20 in overtime on that crazy Golden Tate catch where he broke three tackles on his way to pay dirt. Howveer, that was when the Vikes were losing it. Beating the visiting Cardinals and ending that losing streak was critical because it gives new life to the Vikings. It was a classic Vikings win that gets them back on the rails after going off them for a few weeks. Minnesota brings that winning attitude back this week and we all saw how difficult they were to beat earlier in the year when they had their swag on. We're betting they bring that swag into this game and put away the Lions when the opportunity presents itself.
DALLAS -6½ over Washington
We'll hand it to Kirk Cousins; he's got stones. After screaming, “How do you like me now!” at his general manager right after a big prime time win, he's got the football world buzzing. In case you missed it, the Redskins failed to pony up a big contract for Cousins after he took them to the playoffs last season. Instead, they franchised him for one year at $19 million. Poor guy. While he doesn't seem to lack confidence or have much respect for authority, there is a time and place for everything and Kirk's timing for this outburst is not great. It's not even Thanksgiving and he’s up in the GM's face on NBC. It makes a great soundbite but humiliating the front office on national television isn't the way to build a long term relationship. Cousins’ has been called a “systems” quarterback and we can understand the Redskins' hesitation to pay thim $100 million. Look no further than Brock Osweiler and you can see why the 'Skins aren't backing up the brinks truck for him. Cousins’ has painted himself into a corner now and he better finish the job. All eyes will be on #8 as the Redskins head to Big D for a tough Thanksgiving Day tilt with the NFC East leading Cowboys.
The Cowboys have won nine straight. They have best record in the NFL at 9-1. One could argue that Dallas could be undefeated if Terrance Williams would have got out of bounds late against the Giants in Week 1. Offensively, Ezekiel Elliot leads the league with 1,102 rushing yards and has already set the Cowboys rookie rushing record in just 10 starts. Elliot runs behind the best offensive line in football and even with a very tough matchup last week with the Ravens, he got his by gaining 97 yards on 25 carries. We've heard more than one pundit this week say Dak Prescott is “due” for a bad game but we're not buying it. He has protection for days and a healthy Dez Bryant has really opened things up for one of the leagues' best offenses. We've read all week that this isn't a “Super Bowl defense” but all of that talk is nonsense. What we know is these Cowboys pass the “eye” test. Dallas has the third ranked run defense in the league by allowing just 84.4 yards per game. In Sunday's 27-17 win over the Ravens, the Cowboys “D” limited Baltimore to 3-of-9 third down conversions. These two teams played Week 2 in D.C. and it was the Cowboys defense that helped win the game by intercepting Cousins in the end zone and setting up the game winning drive.
The 'Skins may have beaten the Packers in prime time but let’s not forget they also lost to Detroit and couldn't finish the Bengals in a 27-27 tie earlier this month. Besides, the Pack can’t stop the marching band right now. The Cowboys are not the Pack and this game is not in Washington. You see, the Cowboys are on another level right now and Kirk Cousin's should have saved his public contract demands for the end of the season. Chances are he'll be eating crow on Turkey Day and Dallas wins going away.
David Banks
Steelers vs. Colts
Pick: Under 48.5
The Steelers finally got back to winning with an easy win over Cleveland last week. Pittsburgh had dropped four straight after starting the season 4-1. Le’Veon Bell was the big reason the Steelers were so successful last week. If head coach Mike Tomlin gets that kind of production from his star running back, the Steelers should have success on Thanksgiving night.
Pittsburgh has beaten the Colts 22 of 28 times including the past three times the teams have met. The Steelers blew out the Colts last year, 45-10. This season, Indianapolis has been one of the most inconsistent teams in the NFL. Which team shows up for Indy will play a large part in how successful the Colts are on Thursday. Andrew Luck (2,565 passing yards, 17 TDs) leads an offense that is sixth in the league in scoring. The Colts defense is awful though and will have to face a Pittsburgh offense that features QB Ben Roethlisberger, WR Antonio Brown, and Bell.
Both teams enter the game at 5-5 and need a win to keep playoff hopes alive. The Steelers still have a chance at winning the AFC North. They are tied with Baltimore for the division lead. Pittsburgh still has games with the Giants (7-3) and the Ravens remaining on the schedule.
Cal Sports
Pittsburgh at Indianapolis
Play: Pittsburgh -7.5
How much is their starting QB worth compared to the Las Vegas line is a question I often get asked. We’ll, the Steelers opened as a 2.5 point favorite and when Indianapolis’ Andrew Luck was downgraded to doubtful the line climbed to Pittsburgh -9 but has settled back some to the Steelers -7.5.
A few weeks ago during a discussion with some other handicappers the subject of how bad the Cleveland Browns were came up. We basically came to the agreement that if the Colts were to lose Luck they would worse than Cleveland giving you some insight as to how important he is to the Colts.
The Colts will now turn to Scott Tolzien who will see his first action of the season with his career stats all coming in mop up roles for the Green Bay Packers where he posted a 1-5 ratio with an all-time QB rating of 67.1. With Luck in the lineup Indy has allowed a league high 35 sacks and Pittsburgh’s defense which was banged up early is getting heathier.
The Over/Under total also dropped from 53 to 47 with Luck most likely out but it still seems too high for me. If the Steelers get a double digit lead expect them to run the ball and take time off the clock. On the Indy side of the ball I cannot see them topping 13 points.
Cal Sports
Washington at Dallas
Play: Washington +7
Dallas’ nine game SU/ATS streak started in week #2 when the Cowboys went to Washington as a 3 point underdog and came away with a 27-23 win. Now in this rematch we have two QB’s in rookie Dak Prescott and Kirk Cousins both ranked in the top 10 in QB ratings.
Dallas at 9-1 has gotten all the publicity but the Redskins at 6-3-1 this season actually have the 4th best record in the NFC behind only their opponent, the NY Giants and Seattle. What stands out about Washington this year is that their 3 true road games have come against the NFC North leader, Detroit, the AFC North leader, Baltimore, and against the NY Giants.
Some might be surprised to hear that Washington is the better team statistically when looking at yards per play as they are the NFL’s #2 ranked team while Dallas is #4 and on defense the Skins are #24 compared to Dallas at #23. The reason for Dallas’s success is scoring TD’s instead of settling for FG’s as they are #2 in the league with 2.5 TD’s/game in the redzone compared to the #15 rank of Washington at 1.5 TD’s game in the redzone. That trend started early this season as in their first meeting Washington settles for 29 yard and 22 yard FG’s in the last 18 minutes of the game.
The Cowboys have failed to cover 5 straight Thanksgiving Day games and I’ll call for that streak to reach 6.
SPORTS WAGERS
TEXAS A&M +6½ over LSU
The strategy here for the Tigers is one that has been emphasized over and over and over. No matter where you go for your information on college football, you are going to read or hear about this game being about the Tigers running game against the Aggies run defense. If the Aggies can’t stop the run, then LSU is sure to run up the score in a big way. Some will even suggest that a strong running team like LSU (fourth in the SEC in rushing average at 232.1 yards per game and first in yards per rush at 6.24), can name its price over a full 60 minutes against an A&M defense that will never live up to its recruiting rankings under the current staff. We’ll see how that plays out but more often than not, things don’t play out as advertised.
The Aggies were a 27-point favorite last week against UTSA and didn’t even score 27 points. They won 23-10 but there's a case to be made that a slumping Texas A&M offense that looked disinterested last week can be expected to play a lot better this week. Football is a highly emotional game and last week’s Aggies’ not so impressive victory was sandwiched between this game and the disappointment of tumbling out of the playoff conversation after back-to-back losses to Ole Miss and Mississippi State. Remember, this is an Aggies’ team that hung with Alabama for nearly three quarters. They also started the season 6-0 and whacked Auburn and Arkansas along the way. Now the Aggies are back at home and they’re healthier. They also have the motivation of playing in a more prestigious Bowl game with a victory here.
The Tigers have that same motivation but their bubble bursting appears to have a more lasting and negative effect than A&M's bubble bursting. After losing to Florida, Alabama, Auburn and Wisconsin, does it really matter what Bowl game the Tigers are in? We think not, as four losses are plenty in a 12-game schedule. The Tigers are now in no man’s land with bowl eligibility locked up while falling short of everything else. Mindset matters big time in this sport and we have to trust that the Aggies at home will have a big enough edge in that department to bring this one home. Aggies outright is the call but we’ll settle in on these generous points.
SPORTS WAGERS
Weber State -4 over UC Davis
This just might be the perfect game the books slip under the nose of the Black Friday overnight campers and those lying in a food coma from overdoing it on the turkey and stuffing. Out in the desolate reaches of Anchorage, Alaska, the 1-2 Weber State Wildcats will square off with the UC Davis Aggies, who have gotten off to a searing 4-1 start. At first glance, the records alone suggest that Davis as a pooch has plenty of appeal but that record is nothing but fool’s gold. UC Davis’ best win was a nine-point victory against Sacramento State. UC Davis’ most recognizable opponent is Tennessee State and if anyone was wondering where the one loss was acquired, look no further than the Tennessee State Tigers who soundly defeated the Aggies by 14 points.
Meanwhile, Weber State won 26 games in 2015. They swept their way through the Big Sky conference like a gratuitous helping of mashed potatoes topped with half the gravy bowl. The Wildcats are the superior outfit by a country mile. Weber State also qualified for the NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament last year as a #15 seed, ultimately sent off by Xavier in the First Round. Nevertheless, when you compare the two schedules of Weber State and UC Davis, there are certainly stark contrasts. Weber State’s two losses came against two teams that are better than any of the four teams UC Davis beat this year. The Wildcats two losses occurred against Stanford and Pepperdine with the latter being by a single point. Stanford remains undefeated at 4-0 and they are a Pac-12 team playing in arguably the most competitive conference in America. As for Pepperdine. they are 4-1 and just came in off a win against another 2015 NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament qualifier in Arkansas-Little Rock. Two losses in a row and Weber State comes into this one with a 1-2 record and now we get to buy them at a deflated price. The difference in quality of competition is ultimately the difference between these two programs and in that regard, give the favorite a huge edge.
Brandon Lee
Seton Hall vs. Florida
Play: Seton Hall +2
I'll gladly take the points with the Pirates in this one. Both teams have yet to lose in 2016, but Seton Hall has the more impressive win, going on the road and beating a young but talented Iowa team 91-83. Florida has had an unusual start to the season, as they have had to play every game on a neutral floor while their home stadium gets renovated. They have also had a favorable slate of games to start. I look for the Gators to struggle here against a potent Pirates offense that comes in averaging 88.0 ppg. This is also a very experienced Seton Hall team that has a good mix of young talent. Pirates are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 as a dog and 10-0 ATS in their last 10 after scoring 75+ in back-to-back games.
Bob Balfe
Lions -2.5
Detroit took care of the Lions on the road just a few weeks ago and today at home have huge advantage with Stefon Diggs out of this game for the Vikings. Diggs is leading all receivers with catches this year and is the spark plug to get the Vikings into scoring position. Now there are just not many options to throw to. The Lions have multiple weapons on offense and might be able to take advantage of a banged up Minnesota Secondary today. If this comes down to a FG I trust the leg of Matt Prater over newly signed Forbath.
Redskins/Cowboys Over 51.5
Kirk Cousins has been impressive this season. This offense can score and it can score fast. The Dallas Cowboys just get all of the attention this year. I would not be shocked if the Skins can win this game. There is just a ton of weapons on the field today for both teams. Claiborne and Church being out in the secondary is bad news today for the Cowboys. Dallas is setting records on offense and so are the Redskins. This should be the best game on the card today. Look for a lot of points.
Dr Bob
Washington Redskins @ Dallas Cowboys
Dem Boyz are allowed to be called whatever they wish right now, as they are 9-1 SU. More importantly,they are 9-1 ATS, sitting atop the NFC East and are the insurance policy of the NFL… covering everything in sight. To understand why they continue to cover, we are reminded of one of the greatest ATS teams of the 2000s …the 2004 San Diego Super Chargers who were 93% ATS (13-1-2). Like the 2016 Cowboys, they had an unknown commodity at QB (Drew Brees was in his 4th year, coming off a 2-9 season), a powerful running attack (LaDanian Tomlinson had 339 carries) and an unknown yet overachieving defense (led by… Steve Foley and Donnie Edwards). Right or wrong, like the 2004 Super Chargers, the markets are reluctant to believe that a team with a relatively unproven QB and bad defense will sustain excellence. Therein lies the opportunity for Dallas to continually be undervalued as they have not been more than a TD favorite all year, just like San Diego was never more than a TD favorite in 2004, outside of one game against the seemingly always hapless Browns.
This NFC East showdown will feature Kirk Cousins and the #5 ranked passing offense, averaging 7.6 NYPP, going a Cowboys defense that has been, on all measures, mediocre to bad. However, Dallas has been able to win games, not through turnovers as they are a meager +3 in turnover differential, but with their #1 ranked grinding offense, which boasts a 54.3% success rate. They will be going up against a Washington defense that is ranked 31st in success rate, allowing 51.2%. The Dallas defense, as bad as it is, is able to stay off the field averaging 8 plays less than the offense per game leading to the 10th fewest points allowed at 18.7. The advanced stats model sees Dem Boyz continuing to cover by controlling the clock, so Dallas (-6.5) and Under (51.5) are Strong Opinions.
Andy Iskoe
Redskins at Cowboys
Play: Over 51
Dallas started its run of 9 straight wins and covers with a week 2 win in Washington. The Redskins have gone 6-1-1 following their 0-2 start and are 7-3 ATS with all 7 covers in their last 8 games. At a combined 16-4 ATS these are both “go with” teams which suggests we may find the more confident play by looking at the Total. Both teams have strong running games with Dallas averaging 157 yards per game for the season and Washington averaging 149 ypg over its last 5 games. Both teams have gotten excellent QB play and both offenses are averaging over 410 total yards per game and over 6.0 yards per play. Both defenses rank in the bottom third of the league.
Dave Essler
New Mexico +5
V-Tech is capable of beating anyone on any given day, but they're a hard team to back. The are indeed a feast or famine team and are capable of beating New Mexico by a million. However, they're shooting 59% from the line in the first few game and they aren't getting there much. So, if they're up a few late I can't trust them to get it finished off at the line. Because they're an outside-in team, if they're not making shots they can get BEATEN by anyone. New Mexico has a sizable length advantage so they should own the interior on offense, get most of the rebounds - and they do get to the line a fair bit. New Mexico will need to protect the ball and not let V-Tech run - and last season the Hokies weren't a good neutral court OR road team so give me a few points in a game that New Mexico may win anyway. Fullerton is a long was from Albuquerque but Blacksburg is a lot longer - so any fan advantage I would think is in New Mexico's favor. I can see people travelling to the West Coast from New Mexico for the Holiday - perhaps not so much from Virginia - but I don't think it REALLY matter. I may add more tomorrow, as I'll be on and off in between "things" and at worst will pass on my other leans.
Brad Wilton
The trends point to a lower-scoring game to start the Thanksgiving festivities this Thursday, as Detroit has played their last 4 Under the total. Included is their November 6th visit to Minnesota in which the Lions came back to win a 22-16 overtime affair.
Minnesota has been mostly an Under team, but with new offensive coordinator Pat Shurmer revamping the Vikings offense, the Vikes have played Overs in their last pair of games leading up to this road contest.
Remember this, the Vikings scored on a 100 yard interception, and a 100-plus yard kick-off return in their 30-27 win over Arizona at home on Sunday, and the threat of a big play or plays with the Norsemen is a very real factor.
The Lions are 5-0 Over their last 5 Thursday contests, and 2 of the last 3 series meetings at Ford Field between the teams have landed Over the total, including last season's meeting.
I am going against the recent Under trends, and will play this one to slip Over the total by a few points.
Vikings-Lions Over the total.
2* MINNESOTA-DETROIT OVER
Brett Atkins
I expect the fireworks to go off in the middle game of the 3 being played this Thanksgiving Thursday as Washington and Dallas crank things up in Arlington.
Washington just posted 42 points on a blustery night at home in an Over against Green Bay, as the Redskins have now played Over the total in each of their last 3 games, and 8 of their 10 games overall this season. In fact the Over is 13-2 now in the 'Skins last 15 games contested.
Dallas with Dak, Dez and Zeke has been a revelation, as the Cowboys bring a 9 game winning streak into this game, and they have scored 24 points or more in all 9 of their wins.
The first meeting between the teams in September ended up 27-23 in favor of Dallas in a game that went Over the total, and the Over is the series is now 3-1 the last 4 showdowns, with each of the last pair landing Over.
Prescott has been the man for sure this season, but his counterpart Kirk Cousins has been dicing defenses with precision this season too.
Over is the way to go in this middle of 3 games this Thanksgiving Thursday.
3* WASHINGTON-DALLAS OVER