Free Picks for Thursday, November 2nd, 2017 from some of the nations best and worst handicappers
Marc Lawrence
Idaho +18½
Edges - Vandals: 11-3 ATS away with revenge, including 5-0 the last five… Trojans: 1-10 ATS at home following a double-digit win. With Troy just 2-4 SU and 1-5 ATS in weekday games, and the Vandals going all-out to become bowl eligible in their final FBS season, we recommend a 1* play on Idaho. Thank you and good luck as always. We recommend a 1* play on Idaho.
Doc's Sports
Golden State at San Antonio
Play: Golden State
The Warriors have struggled to start the season. They are just 2-6 ATS through eight games. But their Monday win at LA Clippers showed that all they have to do is flip a switch and they can be back in championship form. They wanted that win badly against the Clippers and we think that they will be similarly motivated for this contest against the Spurs, arguably the second-best team in the west. The Spurs have started slow as well and they are banged up right now. We don't think they will be able to have much success against a healthy and motivated Warriors team. Golden State might be a team to fade early season against sub-par opponents or laying big numbers. But with this game on the road and considering the quality of the opponent we think the price will be right here and there is a good chance that this game will be a blowout.
Raphael Esparza
Ball St at Eastern Michigan
Play: Over 47
This play is all on the defense of the Ball State Cardinals and their defense has allowed more than 50 points in three out of their last four games. Last week Toledo had no problem scoring on Ball State as they scored 58 points, and Thursday night I see the EMU Eagles throwing up big offensive numbers. Both teams are struggling to win games and I see both teams playing some bad defense in this game. Ball State is 4-1 O/U in their last 5 games. And in the Eastern Michigan Eagles last 6 Thursday night games, all 6 of those games went OVER the total. In the last 8 meetings between these two teams, 7 of them have gone over, and I'm a bit shocked this total was around 49-50 points.
Strike Point Sports
Toledo (-9.5) over Northern Illinois
Toledo is just better than everyone else in their conference. They proved that by destroying the first-place team from the other side in Akron. Yes, Northern Illinois is playing solid football, but they have played some close games against opponents that aren't on the level of the Toledo Rockets. Look for the Rocket offense to be just too much for the Huskies to handle. The home crowd on the Toledo offense will absolutely be the difference in this game as these teams are just not, as we said before, on the same level. The Thursday night spotlight isn't what Northern Illinois wants to see, either, as they are a paltry 1-4 ATS in their last five Thursday Night games. Lay the points on the home team in this one as they win easily.
Ben Burns
Ball State vs. Eastern Michigan
Play: Ball State +24
The best thing you can say about Ball State football is that basketball season is right around the corner. The grid Cardinals have lost four straight, by an average score of 50-8, and are down to their fourth quarterback this season. But a 24-point spread is unusual this late in the season, and Eastern Michigan (2-6 SU) has plenty of issues of its own. Plus, there were some good offensive signs in Ball State’s last game. The Cards may have found their QB of the future in Drew Pitt, and Caleb Huntley has developed into a solid workhorse running back. Take the points in this one.
Larry Ness
Warriors vs. Spurs
Play: Spurs +7½
The 5-3 Golden State Warriors are in San Antonio to take on the 4-3 Spurs and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the hungry home side.
San Antonio returns home off a poor road trip and it’s now lost three in a row. The Warriors lost at home to the Pistons and then came out and flattened the Clippers 141-113 on Monday.
Golden State has had two days off to bask in the glory of that big victory and while the team leads the league in scoring (121 points per night), the Warriors are simply terrible on the defensive side of the ball, conceding 114.1 PPG.
San Antonio is struggling without Kawhi Leonard in the lineup, but a little home-cooking is just what the doctor ordered. Note that the Spurs are already 2-0 ATS at home this year (Golden State is a money-burning 2-2 ATS on the road.)
One player to keep your eyes on today is San Antonio big man LaMarcus Aldridge, who has looked sharp in the early going, averaging a team high 23.6 points plus 8.4 boards per contest.
What the Spurs lack on the offensive end (98.1 PPG), they make up for on the defensive side (concede just 98.9.)
Golden State is already 0-1 ATS this year when playing on two days rest and just 1-5 ATS in its last six in the same position.
While I’m not calling for an outright upset, I do definitely think that San Antonio comes in focused and I expect it to keep this one competitive until the final moments. Consider the Spurs in this matchup.
Ray Monohan
Golden State at San Antonio
Play: Golden State -7
The Warriors are worth a move here on Thursday night.
Golden State has been the best offensive team in the NBA and it comes as no shocker whatsoever. Golden State is putting up 121 points per game and are clicking on all cylinders.
This is just a case where the Spurs likely won't be able to sustain a consistent enough offense to get things going and to keep pace with the Warriors.
San Antonio is putting up just 98.1 points per game and that is simply not enough in this case.
Some trends to note. Warriors are 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings. Warriors are 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings in San Antonio.
If they get hot early, this one could get ugly in favor of Golden State.
Ray Monohan
Golden State at San Antonio
Play: Golden State -7
The Warriors are worth a move here on Thursday night.
Golden State has been the best offensive team in the NBA and it comes as no shocker whatsoever. Golden State is putting up 121 points per game and are clicking on all cylinders.
This is just a case where the Spurs likely won't be able to sustain a consistent enough offense to get things going and to keep pace with the Warriors.
San Antonio is putting up just 98.1 points per game and that is simply not enough in this case.
Some trends to note. Warriors are 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings. Warriors are 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings in San Antonio.
If they get hot early, this one could get ugly in favor of Golden State.
Scott Rickenbach
Golden Knights vs. Bruins
Play: Over 6
The Bruins are seeking revenge for a loss at Vegas two weeks ago. They're catching the Golden Knights at the right time as Vegas has major issues in goal. Recently Oscar Dansk became the third Knights' netminder to suffer an injury! He and Marc-Andre Fleury (concussion) and Malcolm Subban (lower body) are all out for this game. Maxime Lagace has an unsightly .812 save percentage so far and now takes on a revenge-minded Boston club. The Bruins should score plenty here but their issue is also goaltending. With Anton Khubodin out, it falls on the shoulders of Tuukka Rask and he is currently struggling. Rask has lost 5 straight starts and his save percentage is under 90% on the young season. The over is 22-12 when the Bruins are facing a team with a winning record in the first half of a season. Also, the over is 4-1 in Golden Knights games against non-conference opposition this season.
Mike Anthony
Buffalo vs. New York
Play: Over 42.5
The Bills have gone Over in all three road tests and stand 15th in the league in scoring. The Jets have engaged in games with 59 and 65 points. Last week’s outing against the Falcons produced 45 in heavy ran and strong winds. Their defenses rank 22nd and 26th in yards allowed, so the teams yield points as well. Lastly, Thursday night seems to be right for bunches of scores. This season, the mid-week specials have hit 80, 61 and 51, plus 49 twice already. Take the OVER tonight in a surprisingly high scoring game.
Jim Feist
Warriors at Spurs
Pick: Under 216
The Warriors are off to a 5-3 S/U start and just a 2/6 ATS record. On the road the club is 3-1 S/U and 2-2 ATS. In addition, the Warriors have covered just two of their last 10 games Tonight they play at the San Antonio Spurs, who are 4-3 S/U on the season and 2-0 at home. The Warriors are NO 1 in the league in scoring (121 ppg) and also tops in assists (30.9). The Warriors defense isn't very good, 27th in scoring defense allowing 114 ppg. The Spurs look to snap a three game losing streak here tonight after starting the season 4-0. The Spurs are playing shorthanded and that's a problem against a team like the Warriors. SA is without Kawhi Leonard and Tony Parker, which is a big reason why they are 27th in scoring offense. As long as Leonard is out of the lineup we can't expect much scoring from this Spurs club. That means they can't get into a run and gun affair with a team like the Warriors. I expect the Spurs to try and slow the tempo as much as possible here.
Brandon Lee
Lakers vs. Blazers
Play: Lakers +7
Lakers are worth a look here as a decently priced road dog against the Blazers in the night cap of Thursday's TNT double-header. LA looked good in their last game, taking down a Pistons team that had been playing well 113-93 at home as a 3-point dog on Tuesday. The biggest thing here is the spot for the Blazers, who just played an overtime game last night in Utah and will be playing their 3rd game in 4 days. Both Lillard and McCollum logged 42+ minutes, while Aminu, Nurkic and Turner all played 30+ minutes. While they have the edge in talent, this Lakers team has a lot of depth and I think they take advantage of the tired legs of Portland and keep this close with an outside shot at winning this game outright.
Mike Lundin
Blue Jackets vs. Panthers
Play: Blue Jackets -114
The Florida Panthers have lost six of their last eight games, the most recent an 8-5 home loss to Tampa Bay. I think they're in for another tough game here as they host the Columbus Blue Jackets who have won three of their last four games.
Both teams are playing on equal rest, and we can note that Columbus is 16-5 in its last 21 games playing on two days rest while the Panthers are 0-4 in their last four games playing on two days rest.
Sergei Bobrovsky is likely to tend the net for the visitors, and he's having a strong season going 7-2 with a 1.97 GAA and a .934 save percentage. Bobrovsky is 9-3 with a 1.94 GAA in previous meetings with the Panthers who are likely to turn to James Reimer who is 3-4 with a 3.70 GAA on the year overall and 2-5 with a 3.56 GAA in previous meetings with Columbus.
Jack Jones
Ball State vs. Eastern Michigan
Play: Eastern Michigan -24
The Eastern Michigan Eagles are much better than their 2-6 record would indicate. This is a team that made a bowl game last year for the first time in years, and they brought back 16 starters from that squad. So for them to be 2-6 right now is a complete surprise.
A closer look shows that after winning more of their close games last year, they have had zero luck in close games in 2017, which has been the only difference. The Eagles have actually lost six straight games by 7 points or less to some very good teams like Ohio, Kentucky, Toledo, Army, Western Michigan and Northern Illinois. And four of those losses came on the road.
You can bet that Eastern Michigan is going to want to take its frustration out on Ball State tonight. And the Cardinals are the perfect punching bag for them. This is a Ball State team that has lost five straight games, including the last four all by 28 points or more.
The Cardinals lost 3-55 at Western Michigan, 3-31 at Akron, 9-56 at home to Central Michigan and 17-58 at home to Toledo. Injuries to the two best players on their team have really done them in during this stretch. They lost both QB Riley Neal and RB James Gilbert to injuries. They have managed just 32 points total in their last four games, or an average of 8.0 points per game. The defense hasn't helped, either, giving up 50.0 points per game in their last four.
Ball State is 1-9 ATS off a loss by 10 points or more to a conference opponent over the last three seasons. The Eagles are 17-5 ATS in their last 22 games overall. The Eagles are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games following a loss. I still believe this is one of the best teams in the MAC. They will take out their anger on hapless Ball State tonight.