Wunderdog
Rangers at Lightning
Pick: Under 6
The last two meetings have gone UNDER and Tampa Bay has stayed UNDER in two of its last three games overall this season. The Lightning exploded for eight goals against Florida on Monday, but now go up against Henrik Lundqvist, who has a 3.21 goals-against average in 10 games. Lundqvist made 32 saves in the Rangers' 6-4 win over Vegas on Tuesday. Andrei Vasilevskiy is expected to start for the Lightning and he has a .927 save percentage and 2.46 GAA this season. Tampa Bay has gone UNDER in five of its last six when its opponent scored at least five goals its previous game going back to last season. In the three games the teams played against each other in 2016-17, the Lightning scored a total of four goals.
Jeff Benton
Your Thursday freebie is the Under in the Navy-Temple game.
Thursday night in Philly low will be the way to go when Navy and Temple take the field.
Let's start with the fact the Midshipmen and the Owls last pair of meetings - last season and in 2014 - have both held Under the total.
Let's continue with the fact the Middies are 5-2 Under the total in their 7 games played this year, with all 3 of their road games landing Under the posted price. As for Temple, the Owls did manage to squeeze Over the total last time out against Army, but Temple had been Under the price in 6 in a row prior to that Over. The Owls are also 4-0 Under in their 4 games played at home for the year.
Based on the total, I am sure this one is going to be pretty damn close to the price established, but in the end these teams will hold just shy of cracking the Over.
Navy-Temple land Under here on Thursday.
3* NAVY-TEMPLE UNDER
Joey Juice
These two teams have remained atop the Western Conference standings for the past few years now, and quite honestly, they are showing no signs of slowing down. In fact, once Leonard gets back in the lineup the Spurs should return to form but needless to say at this point without him they've got some serious problems.
As always, Golden State will push the tempo and run the transition to try and force San Antonio to keep pace.
No team in the league shoots better than the Warriors, and we've seen them Crush teams this season.
A look inside the numbers tells us all we need to know about betting this total.
When the Warriors get rest, the Warriors score big. The over is 5-0 in the Warriors’ last 5 games playing on 2 days rest. When the Warriors play good teams the score always goes over, as the over is 5-0 in their last 5 vs. a team with a winning straight up record.
Additionally, when the Warriors play West Coast teams it's always a score-fest. The over is 9-1 in their last 10 vs. Western Conference opponents. And finally when the Warriors are on the road the game always goes over, the over is 12-2 in their last 14 road contests.
As for the Spurs, all their games have been going over lately as well, especially at home against good road teams. San Antonio has gone over 5 of the last 5 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. In fact, the Spurs always go over at home , the over is 7-1 in their last eight at home.
Nothing but points in this one, bet the total over.
4* GOLDEN STATE-SAN ANTONIO OVER
Tommy Brunson
My comp play tonight comes in the NBA, as I back the underdog Lakers plus the points at the Blazers.
Series history shows Portland having recorded the straight up win in 12 meetings in a row over Los Angeles, with the Lakers last straight up win coming way back in 2014!
Portland has also covered in 9 of the past 10 series showdowns, but this will be the first meeting in the Lonzo Ball era, and while the straight up slide may continue, I expect the Lakers to be there tonight plus the points.
Los Angeles is 3-4 straight up, and they play off a Halloween home win over Detroit. Portland is just 4-4 on the season, and they are playing this one off a loss last night in Utah - the Blazers second straight setback!
Portland to get back in the win column, but Los Angeles to keep it closer than expected.
2* L.A. LAKERS
Eric Schroeder
We have an odd situation in Portland tonight, but I'm going to roll with it here, and take the Los Angeles Lakers plus the points against the offensively stagnant Trail Blazers.
Portland returns home after suffering its third defeat in four games, losing 112-103 in overtime last night, in Salt Lake City. That's not encouraging at all.
One, because the Blazers haven't been playing well on the whole. Two, because they played in the high altitude last night, and now get to readjust tonight. And three, because they played into overtime last night and will be tired for this game.
I know Portland is 12-0 against the Lakers since March 3, 2014, but the Lakers picked up a rather significant win over the Detroit Pistons two nights back, a 113-93 win in L.A. With a night to rest, and coming in feeling good about themselves, the Lakers are going to come out swinging.
I think L.A. pulls ahead big early, the Blazers come back to tie and take the lead and we end up with a fantastic finish with a last-second shot by one of these teams.
The line is too big. Take the dog.
1* LAKERS
John Martin
Lakers vs. Blazers
Play: Under 210
The Portland Trail Blazers just played an overtime game last night against the Utah Jazz. They will be fatigued and won't be looking to push the tempo in this one. This is a Blazers team that has really been struggling offensively, shooting less than 40% from the field in four of their last five games. The Lakers have actually started to play some defense this season, going 4-0 UNDER in their last four games overall. They have allowed 101 or fewer points in four straight games. The UNDER is 3-0 in the last three meetings between these teams with combined scores of 176, 203 and 195 points.
Doug Upstone
Buffalo at New York
Play: Under 43
By yardage allowed, Buffalo and New York are below average, ranked 22nd and 26th respectively in total defense. Though the Jets were not blown out in loss to Atlanta last week, they were were out-gained significantly. Based on these factors, consider playing UNDER on teams against the total like the Jets in a game involving two defensive allowing 335 to 370 YPG, after being out-gained by 100 or more total yards in last game. In the past five years these teams are 32-8, 80.0%.
Jeff Allen
Texas +7
Texas is just 4-4 in its first year under Herman but progress has definitely been made and the Horns have been ultra-competitive, even in their losses. Herman might just have this one circled as TCU has won the last three meeting by a combined score of 129-26. Texas is on a 6-0-1 ATS run and Herman is 8-0 in his L8 as a dog dating back to 2015. The 7-1 Horned Frogs had their bubble burst last week and just might be ripe to be picked after seeing their playoffs hopes pretty much dashed.
Dave Price
Lakers vs. Blazers
Play: Blazers -6½
I think we are getting a nice price on the Blazers as only 6.5-point favorites over the Lakers tonight. They have failed to cover the spread in 4 consecutive games while going 1-3 straight up in the process. But they should have gone 3-1 as they lost at the buzzer to the Clippers, and lost in OT to the Jazz. Now they take a step down in class against a Lakers team that has only played 2 road games this year. The Lakers lost 81-96 in Utah in their last road game. The Blazers own the Lakers, going 12-0 SU & 10-2 ATS in the last 12 meetings. They have won 11 of those 12 games by 7 points or more, and that's all we need to cover this 6.5-point spread.
ASA
Rangers vs. Lightning
Play: Rangers +155
The Rangers seek revenge for a home loss in the most recent meeting (mid-March) and New York had won 4 of the 5 prior meetings with the Bolts. After a very rough start to the season the Rangers appear to have turned the corner as they've won 3 of their last 5 games. The Blueshirts recent success can be attributed to offensive production that has only been poor once in their last seven games. In the other 6 games over the past two weeks, New York has scored an average of 4.5 goals per game. The Rangers are catching the Lightning off of a big divisional win over the in-state rival Panthers! That was a revenging win for Tampa Bay and could leave them a little flat for this game! The Bolts also have a tough match-up with the Blue Jackets (only 4 losses) and may look right past the Rangers (only 4 wins) tonight! When New York gets the goal-scoring rolling like they have been they can be tough to beat. They've won 4 of 6 this season (and 35 of 57 the last 3 seasons) when off of a game where they scored 4 goals or more. The Lightning have lost 31 of 59 (-10.0 net units) when off of a win by a margin of 2 goals or more.
SPORTS WAGERS
N.Y. JETS +3 over Buffalo
The Bills are 5-2 after stampeding to a 34-14 home win over the Raiders last Sunday. Not only is its record surprising but Buffalo has quietly been one of the best bets in the NFL this season by going 5-1-1 against the spread and building rapport with the market with each ticket cashed. The Bills' resume looks pretty good on paper with just two losses coming on the road at Cincinnati and Carolina by a combined seven points. We can definitely see the appeal in the Bills but we are in the buy low, sell high business and Buffalo’s stock is soaring. While the big win over Oakland does look impressive, one cannot ignore that the Bills won the luck based turnover battle 4-0. If you are +4 in turnovers you should win the game by double digits and that’s all there is to it. Buffalo is now a league-best +14 in turnover margin and while there’s nothing that suggests the party has to end here, there is likely to a correction coming. Well, now it gets interesting because the playoffs are a reality for Buffalo, as that’s all they’ve been hearing since Sunday by the local media. The point is the Bills haven’t been to the playoffs since Wade Phillips was coaching this team 17 seasons ago and now, for the first time this season, they are feeling some pressure. On the road with its stock high is not the right time to get behind this unproven bunch.
The Jets were supposed to be a laughing stock this season, as the front office did it’s best to set head coach Todd Bowles and company up for failure. They signed an aging career backup quarterback to lead the charge and many books had Bowles as the odds-on favorite to be the first coach fired this season. Instead, the Jets are 3-5, but at the window where it counts, Gang Green has covered five of their last six games with the only blemish being a push at Miami in a game New York probably should have won. The Jets turned some heads with a three-game winning streak after dropping the first two games of the season in embarrassing fashion but after three straight losses, the Jets’ stock is low again but this team is playing competitive football. Their losses during this run have come against the aforementioned Fish and two teams that played in the Super Bowl last season. The Jets had both the Patriots and Falcons on the ropes before falling in the end.
These two teams played in Week 1 and while we do not put much stock into a game that took place almost two months ago, we’ve seen much analysis that does so we will use that previous result to our advantage. The Bills outgained the Jets 408-214 and outrushed them 190-38 while cruising to a 21-12 victory as a seven-point home favorite. Now the Bills, whose profile is much higher in the market, are being asked to lay just a field goal against a team they’ve already beat and is not perceived to be on their level. This is the only prime time game the Jets will get to play in this season, so you know it’s a big deal for these guys. Players love being in a featured contest and the short week should also benefit the home side. We’ve seen many small road favorites lay an egg in these Thursday night games over the years and we’ve seen the Bills play down to their competition this season in games against the Bengals and Bucs. After this week, the Bills have a brutal four-game stretch that will see them play the Saints, at the Chargers, at the Chiefs and home to the Patriots so we would not be shocked if they are flat tonight after some celebratory victories. It’s tough enough for well-established, strong pedigreed teams to travel on a short week with little preparation time and play well so trusting the Bills to do so may be a big mistake.
Just like games in London that are often blowouts, Thursday night games are also a big cash grab that often results in a blowout or one team or both not being well-prepped. Players are barely over the physical toll that Sunday just took on them so the team that is traveling is at an even bigger disadvantage. You have to be really good and very ready to travel and win on such a short week and we’re not ready to trust the Bills in that role right now.
SPORTS WAGERS
Montreal +107 over MINNESOTA
The Wild are 4-4-2 and above the surface, statistically speaking, they are better than the Canadiens in every way. Minnesota has scored more goals per game than Montreal, has allowed less goals per game, has a better power-play and penalty kill (percentage wise) and its goaltenders have better numbers than Montreal’s duo. Yes indeed, on the surface, the Wild look like a pretty decent play here but let’s discuss win expectation and the real story of these two teams in the early going.
Won/loss records in hockey are very misleading. In that regard, Montreal’s 4-7-1 record might be the most misleading in the game. In terms of win expectation in this one game, Montreal’s is much higher than Minnesota’s because Montreal dominates puck possession while the Wild get dominated. Too much emphasis is put on results because at the end of the game the only thing that matters is who won and who lost. We, on the other hand, try to take advantage of market perceptions that are incorrect and that applies here. Minnesota is spending more time in its own end more than every other team but three.
Montreal ranks third in the NHL in Corsi for percentage while the Wild rank 28th out of 31 teams. That’s a massive difference in puck possession numbers in the offensive end. That has resulted in Montreal’s goals for per 60 minutes to be much higher than Minnesota’s. In four of its last five games, Montreal fired away 51 shots on Anaheim, 40 on the Kings, 43 on the Rangers and 37 on Florida. In its other game over that span, the Habs went off for eight goals on Ottawa. One cannot remove in-game variance from any game or sport but what we can do is predict which team is very likely going to outplay the other and create more chances. In that regard, the numbers beneath the hood strongly suggest Montreal will win those battles. The Habs are hungry, they’re playing some great hockey without the results but confidence is rising and frustration is declining after consecutive victories over the Rags and Sens in which they scored 13 goals combined.
N.Y. Islanders +121 over WASHINGTON
OT included. What is there to like about the Capitals spotting a price? How about nothing. The Caps are coming off a flattering 2-1 loss in Calgary to conclude their 1-2 road trip through Western Canada. They were manhandled by the Canucks (6-2) in the opener of that trip. In between Vancouver and Calgary, the Caps defeated the Oilers but allowed 40 shots on net with 15 of those being of the high danger variety. The Caps have allowed 36 shots on net or more in three of their last five games and in six of their last 10. Washington has also given up more high danger scoring chances than every team in the NHL but two. It’s not just a bad stretch either. The Caps’ will appears to have been broken and while they may get it back at some point, right now they are fade material being a team still forging an identity during a season unlike their last two.
The Islanders are a very respectful 7-5 after playing the sixth toughest schedule thus far. They are also a very respectable 12th in Corsi for %, which puts them in the same range as the Kings and Lightning. That’s pretty good company. The Islanders have won five of their past six games with John Tavares being the hottest player in the league with nine goals and 12 points in his past five games. The Islanders have scored four goals or more in six straight. They have also scored five or more in four of those. There is going to be a cooling down period for sure but when a team is this loose and firing on all cylinders, it’s not the worst time to get behind them. Washington’s stock is not nearly as high as it was when the season started but we still don’t see a strong enough market adjustment to its legit struggles. Therefore, the potential for profits are still there in fading them and we’re not going to stop that approach here.
WINNIPEG +100 over Dallas
OT included. There are many things to like about the Stars. They have some strong analytic numbers and they also have one of the best lines in the NHL (Benn/Seguin/Radulov) that usually dominates puck possession. However, if you take away that one line, the other three lines are very ordinary and do not dominate puck possession. Furthermore, the Stars have played the 28th ranked strength of schedule so we may be looking at some skewed analytic numbers here. The Stars have played the Coyotes twice, the Avs twice and Vegas and Detroit once. That makes up half their games right there. Dallas has been outshot and out-chanced in five of its last six games, including its last game in which they won in Vancouver (2-1 in OT) but gave up 39 shots on net. Dallas will now play its fifth straight road game after playing in Colorado, Edmonton, Calgary and Vancouver.
Analytically speaking, Winnipeg’s numbers are worse than Dallas but that’s not going to deter us from playing the Jets in their own barn taking back a small price. For one, Winnipeg has played the 7th toughest schedule in the league but perhaps more importantly is that they are gaining steam. The Jets have played the Penguins and Jackets twice each over their six games. They also beat the Wild twice over that same six-game span. Winnipeg picked up points in every game but one of of those six and they also have victories this year over Edmonton, Carolina and Vancouver. The real kicker here is that Connor Hellebucyk is on fire. You would be hard-pressed to find a goaltender in better form and what that does is instill confidence throughout the entire lineup. Goaltending decides more games than anything else, which makes Hellebucyk and the Jets very worthy of getting behind here. It’s still early in the year but Dallas’ projections of being a legit contender appear to be way off.
Pass NCAAF
Jimmy Boyd
Navy at Temple
Play: Navy -7
I look for the Midshipmen to lay it on the Owls Thursday in big time revenge game for Navy, who lost to Temple in last year's AAC Championship Game. The Midshipmen are also going to be locked in after losing their last two against two of the better teams not just in the ACC but the country in Memphis and UCF. Note that Navy was right there with both of those teams and could have easily won each contest. Temple on the other hand has lost 4 of 5 with their only win coming against a sad East Carolina team. The Owls just lost at Army in OT and prior to that fell 24-28 as a double-digit home favorite to UConn. I just don't see Temple's defense being able to slow down Navy's triple-option attack. That will have the Midshipmen dominating the time of possession and I look for them to pull away in the 2nd half for a comfortable double-digit win. Navy has been a covering machine when they get the chance to play on Thursday, going 5-1 ATS in their last 6. They are also 4-1 ATS in their last 5 vs a team with a losing record and 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games played in November.
Dr Bob
Navy @ Temple
Both teams are coming off a bye week and the fact that Temple faced an option team before their bye week (Army) and had an extra week to fine-tune their option defense is an advantage. In general, teams tend to play better than expected the second time that they face an option team in same season and the Owls held Army to just 5.2 yards per rushing play, which is better than the an average team would do. Temple also has been better offensively with Frank Nutile at quarterback in place of the injured Logan Marchi and my math model favors Navy by just 6 points. For what it’s worth, Thursday night home dogs of more than 7 points coming off a bye week are 23-9 ATS the last 30 years (23-8 ATS if the opponent is also off a bye).
TJ Pemberton
Vegas vs. Boston
Play:Vegas +173
The Las Vegas Golden Knights have now lost two straight games heading into Thursday. The Golden Knights are 8-3 on the season and will visit Boston to take on the Bruins. Las Vegas is 7-3 over their last ten games and are 2-2 on the road. Maxime Lagace will get his 2nd start of the season for Vegas. Lagace is 0-2 on the season with 9 goals allowed. Lagace carries a .813 save percentage and a 6.35 goals against average. The Boston Bruins have also lost two straight games heading into this one. Boston is 4-3-3 on the season and 5th in the Atlantic. The Bruins lost 4-3 in overtime in Columbus on Monday and are 3-1-2 on their home ice. The Bruins average 3.00 goals per game which ranks 16th in the NHL. Tuukka Rask will make his 7th start in the net for the Bruins on Thursday. Rask is 1-3-2 on the season with 17 goals allowed. Rask carries a 2.93 goals against average and a .896 save percentage.