Free Picks: Free Service Plays for Thursday, November 3rd, 2016

Vernon Croy

Oklahoma (-21) over Iowa State

This pick falls into one of my top college football systems, and I have the Sooners winning by 27+ points on the road Thursday night, so there is actually some line value here. The Sooners are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games against the Cyclones and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 trips to Iowa State. The Sooners are now 9-3 ATS in their last 12 conference games and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing less than 170 passing yards in their previous game. The Sooners have one of the best offenses in the country, averaging 45.4 points per game, and they have only settled for field goals 7 times this season, which tells you just how potent this Sooners attack is in the red-zone. Iowa State has averaged just 24 points per game this season and they also have no answer defensively for this potent Sooners attack. Play Oklahoma ATS with confidence, and make sure you get my football package again this week as we go for 3 straight winning weeks.

Sean Murphy

Oilers vs. Rangers
Play: Under 5½

The Rangers steam-rolled the Blues by a 5-0 score on Tuesday (we won with New York on that night) but I believe they'll be in for a tougher battle on Thursday against the Oilers.

Edmonton has cooled off following a red hot start, dropping its last two games against the Senators and Maple Leafs. In those two losses, the Oilers managed only two goals. Things won't get any easier on the road at MSG on Thursday.

New York has scored 11 goals over its last two games but I'm thinking it may have been a little easier to get up for games against the Lightning and Blues. While the Oilers are an improved team, I'm not convinced they'll draw a great deal of motivation in this non-conference matchup.

The 'over' went 2-0 in this series last season but that only serves to give us additional value here, stretching the total to 5.5 from 5.0 a year ago.

The 'under' has cashed in each of the Oilers last seven games and that's a trend I'm comfortable backing again on Thursday.

Matt Josephs

Arkansas St vs. Georgia St
Play: Under 46

Arkansas State hits the road for the first time in awhile as they take on Georgia State. Both of these teams are in relative desperation mode as they try to get to six wins and bowl eligibility. The Panthers have won because of their defense that has played really well the past few weeks. They'll be stressed a bit by the Red Wolves who are starting to score a bit. Georgia State's issue is the offense that is averaging only 307.9 yards per game. ASU has allowed just 17 points the last two weeks and have played relatively good defense. GSU has gone under in 18 of their last 33 games overall including 14 of 26 as an underdog. I think this one has a chance to be a low scoring defensive battle.

Ken Thomson

Iowa St. +21

With RB Joe Mixon now suspended for the game in Ames this is a No brainer even if I get beat. Cyclones lost by 3 to Baylor at home 45-42, a game they led 42-28 in the 4th. Lost at Okie State 38-31 and just lost @ home vs. Kansas State 31-26- Mixon is the Sooners leading rusherwith 813 yards and 6 TD's and he has 24 receptions, 357 yards and 4 more receiving TD's. Not saying first year HC Matt Campbell gets outright win but they should hang within 10 points.

Rob Vinciletti

Kings vs. Magic
Play: Magic -1

The Magic have won 3 of the last 4 in the series against Sacramento and they fit a solid database system that plays on home teams with +3 to -3 point spread that scored 90 or more as a road favorite and failed to cover by 1-3 points vs an opponent that scored 90 or more as a road dog like the Kings. Sacramento has lost 7 of 8 on the road vs South East Division teams. Look for Orlando to get the win.

Scott Spreitzer

Nuggets vs. Wolves
Play: Wolves -3

Denver won its opener and then lost its next two games that included an unbelievable meltdown against Portland and then a 105-102 loss at Toronto on Monday. The Nuggets shot 39.2 percent in the two losses and they rank #28 in the league in field goal percentage. Emmanuel Mudiay led the Nuggets with 16 points, six rebounds and four assists against the Raptors. Denver covered the spread but it's 1-6 ATS after an ATS win dating to last season. Minnesota annihilated Memphis 116-80 on Tuesday in its home opener while shooting 55.1 percent and 12 of 20 from three-point range. Zach LaVine poured in 31 points and Karl-Anthony Towns added 11 points and 10 rebounds for the Timberwolves. Denver has some injuries with Gary Harris and Will Barton out and Darrell Arthur is questionable.

Jim Feist

Thunder at Warriors
Pick: Under

These teams are young and like to run, especially the Thunder behind Russell Westbrook. However, this coach gets them to play defense, too, on a 6-1 run under the total on the road. Golden State is home and also plays tough defense, especially against good teams, 16-7-1 under the total against a team with a winning percentage above .600. The Under is also 20-6-2 in the Warriors last 28 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. And when these rivals clash the Under is 6-2 in the last 8 meetings, including 6-1 under at the Warriors.

David Banks

Atlanta @ Tampa Bay
Pick: Tampa Bay +4

A week after being shredded by Derek Carr of Oakland, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers get the unenviable task of facing Atlanta and its high-powered passing attack featuring QB Matt Ryan and WR Julio Jones. The Falcons are the No. 2 passing offense in the league and, more importantly, are No. 1 in scoring averaging 32.8 points per game. Tampa Bay couldn’t stop anything last week and, if the trend continues, they will not have a chance at sweeping the season series with the Falcons.

Surprisingly, the Bucs have won the last three meetings between the two teams including this year’s season opener when Tampa Bay QB Jameis Winston threw for 281 yards and four touchdowns. The Bucs haven’t looked as good since. After beating the Falcons, Tampa Bay promptly lost three straight. At 3-4, the Bucs are still alive in the race for the postseason, but it is going to take a better job on defense to get there.

The Falcons have not won in Raymond James Stadium since 2014 and would like avenge the season-opening loss. Head coach Dan Quinn would like to beat Tampa Bay; he has not done so since taking the Falcons job prior to the 2015 season. Atlanta proved they are worthy of a division title when they recorded a 33-32 come-from-behind victory over the Green Bay Packers. Ryan leads the NFL with 2,636 passing yards and Jones is second in the league with 859 receiving yards. Devonta Freeman (543 yards rushing) leads the ground attack.

The Atlanta defense is far from stellar, but if the Falcons can slow down Winston the offense can do its thing. Running back Tevin Coleman, who is nursing a hamstring injury, may return to the lineup. He is listed as questionable.

Buster Sports

Philadelphia at New York
Play: New York -146

The Islanders are in the midst of a 5 game home stand and are licking their wounds from a bad loss to the Tampa Bay Lightning by the score of 6-1. The Islanders have dug themselves an early hole in the competitive Metropolitan Division and need to start winning some games especially at home. The Flyers are on a two game win streak and they had a nice come from behind OT win against the Red Wings last night. The Islanders will look to come out with a better start tonight as they gave up two PP goals in the first period and were down 3-0 at the end of the first against Tampa Bay. With the Flyers playing back to back games look for the Islanders to try and jump on Philadelphia early as the legs are sometimes a little tired for the road team in the first period on the back to back. Also with the Flyers leading the league in goals allowed at 41, look for a struggling NYI offense to get healthy tonight against the Flyers.

Jim Mack

Buffalo vs. Ohio
Play: Buffalo

So, this is the big week that the MAC gets to “show off”, with games on national television four straight nights. The Thursday game could be the worst of those, as Buffalo travels to Ohio U. The Bulls have been unusually brilliant on two occasions this year, getting upset wins over Army and Akron. Both of those wins were at home, on the road it has been a much different story, as they are 0-3 SU & ATS, scoring a paltry 8.0 PPG while allowing 39. That follows a trend of recent years as Buffalo is just 2-10 ATS in its L12 games against good teams with a winning percentage between 60-75%, getting outscored by 26.8 PPG in such contests. The Bobcats come off a nice upset win at Toledo, a game that kept them in the thick of the conference title chase. They are 7-0 ATS in their L7 home games when coming off an upset victory. If the motivation for staying in the hunt for the MAC title with a win here weren’t enough, Ohio will also be motivated by the fact that it lost in ugly fashion last year at Buffalo, 41-17, despite winning the yardage battle by 51. With Ohio only scoring about 29 PPG, this game might not be one you immediately pick out at a rout, but it sure looks to me like it could be.

Wunderdog

Edmonton @ New York
Pick: Under 5.5

First-place Edmonton isn't just about a high-flying offense, as the defense is fifth in the NHL in goals allowed, and second in penalty killing. It's the second game of a long road trip and the offense has cooled off, scoring two goals the last two games, off a 3-2 loss at Toronto. Edmonton has gone seven straight games UNDER the total and is 18-7-1 UNDER when playing on one day of rest. Goaltender Cam Talbot was a backup goaltender for the Rangers for two seasons before joining the Oilers last season. He is among the league leaders in goals-against average (2.14) and save percentage (.932) and gets the start. The NY Rangers are tied for fifth in the league in goals allowed with Edmonton. New York has a dominant goalie of its own in Henrik Lundqvist, so look for both defenses to shine.

ASA

Flames at Sharks
Play: Under 5.5

The under is 9-1 in the Sharks 10 games so far this season. That record includes a current under streak of 7 in a row entering this Thursday night match-up with Calgary. The Flames are off of a 5-1 loss at Chicago but the game was truly much closer than that. The game was 1-1 going to the 3rd period and then the Blackhawks exploded for 4 goals which resulted in a rare over 5.5 on the road for Calgary. Away from home, in games with a total set at 5.5 goals by the oddsmakers, the under is a strong 41-22 in Flames games. Both of these clubs are struggling on the power play (San Jose 9.3% and Calgary 12.4%). Also, the Sharks have been strong on the penalty kill with an 85.7% kill rate. San Jose comes into this game off of a road loss but, at home this season, they have allowed just 1 single goal in each of their 4 games. San Jose will be hungry to bounce back on home ice here while the Flames, off of a bad 3rd period at Chicago, will also be ready to bounce back. That combination should lead to a tight-checking hard-fought low-scoring game with the emphasis on strong play inside their own zones. Each of the Flames 3 prior road games stayed under the total and that streak resumes here.

Sleepyj

Pittsburgh -110

The Kings right now are the who's who of the NHL....The big issue is the net....If they go with Budaj, it might be an ugly night..Kings don't have any depth right now and his numbers are getting worse as he plays night in and night out...He has now started a total of 7 games in a row...He has allowed 8 goals in the last 3 games...Well it won't get an easier tonight facing a red hot Penguins teams...Pens have won 5 of the last 6, but they are coming off a back to back..Still it's early season so these guys should be ready to go tonight..I'd look to back away from the Pens on Saturday when they face San Jose....Big issue for the Kings is injuries and other issues..Players hurt and suspended right now isn't helping one bit...Yes they get a rest and a home game, but across the board the numbers look bad...They might get even worse as the next few games become complete...Pens are one of the top Power Play teams right now with one of the highest scoring offense...Kings on the other hand are like the worst offense in the league..they struggle to kill the penalty and they are one of the worst putting other teams in the PP....Nothing adds up here for the Kings even at home with the pens on a back to back...Not sure who goes tonight for the Kings, but i doubt it matters much..Another key point for this contest is the fact that G Matt Murray had a fantastic first outing...That might motivate Fleury in the net tonight to perform well.

Brett Atkins

Red Wolves as the road favorite here on Thursday is the call over the Panthers of Georgia State.

Arkansas State has things rolling the right way as they head into the final month of the season, winners of 3 straight. They have also won the last 3 series meetings against Georgia State (1-2 against the spread), winning by 14, 42 and 2 points.

A 4th straight win based on the previous results sure seems likely to me, especially when you consider the Panthers are just 2-6 straight up on the season. Sure, Georgia State has covered their last 6 games (4 as the underdog), but they were getting at least +6 points in each of their dog tries. That is NOT the case tonight, as this will be State's first try as the home underdog this year, a role in which they are just 1-4-1 dating back to 2014.

Ultimately what swings this game in favor of the hot road team is the quarterback position, as Arky State's Justice Hansen - formerly of Oklahoma! - just threw for 4 TD passes in last week's victory, while Georgia State is now turning to a redshirt freshman backup QB in Aaron Winchester.

That difference in stability has got to be worth a touchdown at least.

Arkansas State easy.

4* ARKANSAS STATE