Brad Wilton
Although he Cyclones are just 1-7 straight up it sure looks like first year coach Matt Campbell has instilled a different mindset in Ames, as Iowa State has covered in 5 of their last 6 games this season.
Tall task tonight for Iowa State, as the Boomer Sooner bandwagon is rocking strong right now, winning 5 in a row after opening the season with losses in 2 of their first 3 games. Oklahoma has rung up some video game-like numbers too, scoring 56, 66, 38, 45 and 52 during their updraft!
The Sooners have also won all 6 meetings the past 6 seasons, with 4 straight covers. Obviously hard to go against those numbers, but Iowa State has shown enough moxie for me to believe that the 3 scores the oddsmakers are bestowing on them on their home field is just enough to make it interesting against a very over confident Oklahoma team that may well leave this back-door ajar.
Take the points!
1* IOWA STATE
Bob Valentino
My free play for tonight is on the Over in the NFC showdown between the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Atlanta Falcons. Normally I would highly consider the Under in a game between these two, but not this year. Not when the Falcons' offense has been damn near brilliant.
And on the road against a capable Tampa Bay squad, the Falcons' Matty Ice will need that brilliance to shine through if they want to win.
The Falcons have the No. 1 offense in football, averaging 425.2 yards per game. They also rank No. 1 with 32.8 points per game - the only team that averages more than 28 points. That won't bode well for the Buccaneers' defense, which is allowing 27 points per game - ninth-worst in the NFL.
Now, let's not go slurping on the Falcons just yet. After all, they have the fourth-worst scoring defense in the league, allowing 28.9 points per game. That means Tampa Bay's explosive offense has the chance to come alive.
We've seen the Bucs put up more than 30 thrice this season, and they're averging a mere 21 points at home, where they are 0-3 this year. That's right, there is added motivation for their first home win of the season.
I'm going to count on a shootout tonight, and play this one high.
4* Buccaneers/Falcons Over
Eric Schroeder
On the heels of my free play for Wednesday on the Los Angeles Lakers outright against the Atlanta Hawks, I'm coming with the Orlando Magic to defeat the Sacramento Kings.
I'm not convinced the oddsmakers had the right team favored in this game, which is probably why the line has come down to just one. The Kings arrive mired in a two-game slide, after losing at Atlanta and in Miami.
Tonight marks Sacramento's third road game in four days, as part of a five-game road trip that will span seven days. This is going to be one tired team, and after seeing how sluggish it played in its first two on this junket, I like my chances with the Magic.
Orlando is in after playing three straight on the road - at Detroit, Cleveland and Philadelphia. And after losing their first three overall, the Magic came alive to defeat the 76ers in a come-from-behind win on Tuesday. I was pretty impressed with how the Magic erased an 18-point deficit to notch the outright road win.
Orlando trailed by as many as 10 points in the fourth quarter and by four points with one minute remaining. It didn't stop the Magic from persevering. Tonight they carry the momentum into this game and win another.
3* ORLANDO
Chris Jordan
My free play for tonight is on the Oklahoma City Thunder, against the Golden State Warriors, as I want you taking the points in the first controversial, drama-filled game of the year. We've already had a couple of good showdowns, but this game tonight will receive plenty of hype.
And while the Warriors have that deadly lineup with Steph, Klay, KD and Draymond, I don't think they're going to have as easy a time as people think against KD's former employer. The Thunder, led by Russell Westbrook, will be on fire in Oakland.
Remember the season-opener, when the San Antonio Spurs trounced Golden State? I think the Thunder will use that blueprint to frustrate the Thunder, with a stringent defense, and Westbrook scoring his season high tonight. Hell, he may go for 50 while trying to will his team to victory.
Take the underdog in this one.
1* OKLAHOMA CITY
DON ANTHONY
Pittsburgh Penguins -110
Simple rule of thumb, play on the hot teams and fade the cold teams (ride the streaks.) Well, the Penguins have won 4 in a row, scoring 17 goals in the process. The Kings are the exact opposite. They have lost 3 consecutive and haven't SCORED A GOAL in those 3 losses. Not over thinking this one.
BRANDON LEE
Celtics +10
I know Boston will be without Horford, Crowder and Olynyk for this one, but I still think the value is there to roll the dice on the Celtics in this spot. Several Cavs players were at Game 7 of the World Series last night, which into the morning hours. That was a crushing loss for the city of Cleveland and I expect to see a bit of a hangover effect from the Cavs against a depleted Celtics lineup. Keep in mind this is a deep and well-coached Boston team that is going to show up and give it their all here against the defending champs. It's worth mentioning the Cavs come in averaging 111.0 ppg. Under head coach Brad Stevens, the Celtics are 21-8 ATS in their last 29 road games against teams who average 103 or more points/game. This is also a team that's performed well when playing on no rest, as they are 25-12 ATS in their last 37 when playing in back-to-back games.
JACK JONES
Iowa State +20.5
The Iowa State Cyclones always seem to play well at home against teams that are expected to dominate them. Just remember a few years ago when they upset unbeaten Oklahoma State at home as nearly four-touchdown underdogs. The evidence has been there this season that they can play with the top teams in the Big 12, too.
They have gone 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall to be a covering machine. They only lost by 3 at home to Baylor as 17.5-point dogs after blowing a 14-point lead in the 4th quarter. They blew a 17-point lead at Oklahoma State and lost 31-38 as 14-point dogs. Last week they covered as 6-point dogs in a 26-31 home loss to Kansas State.
I don't expect Oklahoma to be fully focused for this game against Iowa State. The Sooners are also lacking explosiveness in their offense right now due to injuries. They are in a world of hurt in their backfield after it was announced that Joe Mixon, who leads the Sooners in rushing with 813 yards and five touchdowns, will be suspended for this game due to a violation of team rules.
With Mixon suspended, Oklahoma will be without its top two running backs at Iowa State. Samaje Perine is still recovering from a muscle pull. With Rodney Anderson out for the year and Daniel Brooks having retired due to concussions, Oklahoma will travel to Ames with only one scholarship running back, true freshman Abdul Adams.
Oklahoma has only played two true road games this season. It barely escaped with victories in both. The Sooners won 52-46 at TCU as 3.5-point favorites. They also won 66-59 at Texas Tech as 16.5-point favorites. They also only beat Texas 45-40 as 11.5-point favorites on a neutral field, and lost to Houston 23-33 as 13.5-point favorites on a neutral field.
Iowa State was coming off its bye last week and it clearly helped the offense get on track. The Cyclones racked up 493 total yards against a very good Kansas State defense. They outgained the Wildcats by 95 yards, too. Jacob Park threw for 301 yards and two touchdowns with an interception. He should have plenty of success against an Oklahoma defense that gives up 315 passing yards per game.
Plays against favorites of 10.5 to 21 points (OKLAHOMA) - after allowing 6 points or less last game against opponent after scoring 7 points or less in the first half in two straight games are 38-13 (74.5%) ATS since 1992. The Sooners are 0-4 ATS in their last four games following an ATS win. The Cyclones are 5-1 ATS in their last six home games.
JIMMY BOYD
Arkansas State -4.5
I think the value here is with the Red Wolves as a small road favorite. Even though Arkansas State has won 3 straight, they still aren’t getting the respect they deserve due to their 3-4 overall record.
The thing to keep in mind with their 0-4 start is they played a brutal schedule. They opened with Toledo at home and then played Auburn and Utah State on the road. They did lose 23-26 at home to Central Arkansas, which was a bad a loss. However, they beat themselves with 4 turnovers.
I also believe the fact that Georgia State has covered in 6 straight has this line lower than it should be. The key here is the Panthers just aren’t a great team. They have only outgained 2 teams all season. They rank 126th in total offense, averaging just 394.5 yards/game.
While they rank 58th in total defense, they can’t stop the run. Georgia State is 105th against the run, allowing 216.8 ypg. While Arkansas State is just 101st in rushing (141.1 ypg), that’s a misleading number. They have been much better in Sun Belt play, where they are averaging 221.7 ypg.
You also have to factor in the series between these two teams. Arkansas State has won all 3 meetings since the Panthers joined the conference in 2013. Last year they won by 14 points and the previous year at Georgia State they won by 42. This is by far the closest spread in the series an I don’t think it’s warranted.
Arkansas State's strong start in conference play is also not a big surprise. The Red Wolves are now 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games against Sun Belt teams. Note they have won these by an average margin of 44.0 to 23.9.
We also find a strong system in play favoring a fade of the Panthers. We want to go against home teams who have lost 6 or 7 of their last 8 against a team that’s won 3 of their last 4. Teams in this spot are just 7-32 (18%) against the spread over the last 5 seasons.
DAVE PRICE
Indiana Pacers -2.5
The Milwaukee Bucks are clearly one of the worst teams in the NBA this season. They are 2-2, but their two wins have come by a combined 6 points over the Nets and Pelicans, who are also two of the worst teams in the NBA. I like this value we are getting with the Pacers as only 2.5-point favorites here. The Pacers are on the rise, and once Jeff Teague starts playing the way he did in Atlanta, they're going to be very dangerous. The Bucks lost by 11 at home to Charlotte and by 15 at Detroit in their two losses. The Pacers won 3 of 4 meetings with the Bucks last season with their only loss coming by 4 points. They won both road meetings. The Bucks are 0-10 ATS in their last 10 home games after having won 2 of their last 3 games coming in. Milwaukee is 1-11 ATS in its last 12 vs. Eastern Conference opponents. The road team is 8-2 ATS in the last 10 meetings.
SPORTS WAGERS
IOWA ST +20½ over Oklahoma
This attack is on Oklahoma, an outfit that has been frequently overvalued this season as a direct result of its name bearing a price in itself. The Sooners enter at 6-2 this year but they are just 3-5 against the spread. We warned of the dangers in taking the Crimson and Cream as Big 12 Champs in the pre-season, as they required juice as the favorite to take the conference title. Despite losing to both Houston and Ohio State, the Sooners have so far been par for the course in Big-12 play, as they sit atop the conference and remain undefeated in Big 12 play. By no means will this hamper our approach; if anything it enhances it. You see, OU is a ranked team but against ranked opponents (Ohio State, Houston and TCU), they have been embarrassed once, lost twice and should probably be 0-3 instead of 1-2.
Despite sporting a 1-7 record overall this season, Iowa State sits at 5-3 against the spread because they’re almost always taking back inflated points.The Sooners better be on alert, as Iowa State has been bullied in this series for well over a decade and they would love nothing more than to pick a bone with this perennial Goliath at home when they have the experience of knowing they can go toe-to-toe with some Big 12 heavyweights. ISU lost by just three points at home Baylor and by just seven at Ok State. Remarkably, the last time the Cyclones defeated OU at Jack Trice Stadium was way back in 1960. The Sooners dominance over this program also adds points to the already inflated number.
Now Oklahoma is a three TD favorite on short rest. The Sooners played on Saturday and they have the 17th ranked Baylor Bears on deck. The Sooners are also a team that rarely plays mid-week (last time was in 2007), which takes them out of their routine and makes preparation more difficult. Historically and on paper, the Sooners look like they should ruin this host but football games are not played on paper. The intangibles favor the ‘Clones, which is more than enough for us to test the waters fading this visitor, as it lays a bloated price to an extremely motivated host.
SPORTS WAGERS
DALLAS -101 over St. Louis
Regulation only. In this week’s podcast, we discuss “reading between the lines” and allowing the line itself to dictate the play and this is a prime example of that. When this line came out, the Blue Notes were -½ +154, which is extremely enticing. The other side of that coin is the Dallas Stars, who are being offered a half puck but one must lay -170 to back them. That is not enticing one bit. The line therefore reads:
St. Louis -½ +154
Dallas +½ -170
Numbers like this in the NHL are frequent. If you have the luxury of being able to bet this at Pinnacle, you can bet it on the money line in regulation only and this line STRONGLY suggests that the Dallas Stars will not lose this game in regulation. They may lose it in OT or a shootout but it is unlikely that they’ll lose it in regulation because nobody in their right mind is spotting -170 to back Dallas taking back a half puck. We’re not either but we will play Dallas on the money line to win in regulation. If the game is tied after regulation, with this wager, we get a push. This is a true case of the betting line instructing us on how to play it.
Note: If you don't have an account at Pinnacle or 5Dimes, there is a greater risk of playing this type of game with OT included but the play is still recommended.
Vancouver +167 over OTTAWA
OT included. The Senators are sitting pretty at 6-3 and are certainly one of this year’s early surprises. The Sens have won two in a row and three of four, which includes a 2-0 victory in Edmonton this past Sunday in the final game of their brief but difficult three-game trek through Western Canada. The first game of that trip was a 3-0 victory in Vancouver. Ottawa returned him to beat the Hurricanes in OT on Tuesday so this is its second game back. They have scored two goals or less in three straight and in four of its last five games. In Edmonton, the Sens were outshot 37-22 and won. On Tuesday, they Canes also outshot and out-chanced them. Analytically, the Sens are league average or below in almost every defensive and offensive category. They are a top-heavy team but winning is not sustainable when you al;low that many chances and are only scoring two goals a game.
The Canucks are taking back way too big a price here to pass up on. Vancouver has indeed lost six in a row and has been shutout three times over that span but they played L.A., Edmonton, Washington, Anaheim and Montreal over that span and did not look a bit out of place in any of them. In fact, Vancouver dominated the Habs last night, outshooting them 42-21 while absolutely owning the puck possession battle. Let’s not forget that the Canucks jumped out to a 4-0 record to start the season. They were obviously not that good but they are also not nearly as bad as their current six-game losing streak suggests and now they’re back an inflated price in a game they have a great chance of winning.
Colorado +155 over CHICAGO
OT included. We backed the Avalanche in their 5-1 home loss to the Predators on Tuesday but that is not going to deter us from coming right back on them here. After that performance, Avs Captain, Gabriel Landseskog promised that the team will be better than that awful performance. He went on to say that everybody was embarrassed. A big effort from Colorado can be expected here and when that happens t is capable of defeating anyone, just like they did when they went into Pittsburgh and Tampa recently and defeated both the Pens and Bolts. The Avs poor effort in their last game now sets this one up nicely for a much better game.
The Blackhawks are 6-4 after winning three in a row and four of five. However, they defeated Toronto, New Jersey, Los Angeles and Calgary over that span. Against Toronto, the ‘Hawks were down two goals late in the third before a late and lucky rally allowed them to win it in OT. Against the Devils, Chicago was outshot 28-12 through two periods and scored with two minutes remaining in the third before luckily winning that one in OT also. In Chicago’s 5-1 victory over Calgary on Tuesday, it scored five times on 22 shots on net while being outshot 34-22. The Blackhawks are very simply the second best team on the ice most nights. They have some serious defensive problems that will eventually lead to a bunch of losses. The Blackhawks are a great fade because they are priced like they are still elite when they are not. A team like Colorado can easily come in here and expose those flaws. Big overlay.
ARIZONA +130 over Nashville
OT included. There are so many things not to like about the Predators here. First, Nashville’s goaltending is horrible and you CANNOT win in this league consistently with weak goaltending. The team that gets better goaltending wins 90% of all games so when we can fade a road team with poor goaltending spotting a price, we are going to step in almost every time. Pekka Rinne fights almost every puck that comes his way. Secondly, the Preds will conclude their five-game trip here after playing in Colorado on Tuesday. That is not a favorable situation either. With the weight of losing every other game during this trip off their shoulders with that aforementioned victory in Colorado, the Preds will be looking forward to getting home. Aside from playing in Colorado, the Preds also played in Los Angeles, San Jose and Anaheim, which is difficult no matter how you break it down.
The Coyotes will very likely get the remnants from Nashville’s difficult trip here and they are precisely the type of hard-working team that can capitalize on a favorable situation. The Coyotes are coming off a confidence boosting victory over San Jose the game after returning home from a season opening six-game trip. The Coyotes have played the second toughest schedule in the league thus far, which figures to serve them well over the next stretch of games. They have won two of three home games with only loss being by one goal. The Coyotes are better this year than last. They are going to be a tough out all year in their own building, meaning that there is nothing but value taking back prices at home with this host. That applies here.
SPORTS WAGERS
TAMPA BAY +3½ over Atlanta
The Falcons outgunned the Packers last week after scoring on their final offensive drive to win a one-point game, 33-32. With the league's number one offense, Atlanta has plenty of appeal here against these Dregs from Tampa but we’re not interested. Once again, we’re here to warn you that laying road points in these short week, division games in prime time is a low percentage play. You don't need not look any further than the Bears/Vikings game on Monday Night Football for another example among many others of why these “easy” bets should be avoided. X’s and O’s mean very little when dealing with divison rivals on a short week.
The Buccaneers played and LOST in a game where their opponents took more penalties than any other team, in any other game ever. That kind of failure attracts attention and the Bucs have been hammered this week during the NFL's 24 hour news cycle. This Thursday night prime time game has only magnified how spectacularly the Bucs blew that game with the Raiders last week. So many times the Bucs played it safe when they should have went for the kill. Heading into Week 9, the Bucs appear to be a total mess. Even we have a hard time pulling the trigger on these bums. However, it's when a team is at it's lowest and everyone has jumped ship that it's time we step in. These Thursday night games are usually mistake filled and hard to watch but for the home team, this is often their biggest game of the season. The Bucs are no different, as this is the only game Tampa will host in prime time this season and they’ll leave nothing on the table after that horrible performance just four days ago. It is our recommendation that there are only two choices here….One, you lay off the game entirely or you take the points. We’ll choose the latter because there are better games to focus on today.
Bruce Marshall
Flyers at Islanders
Pick: Over
The Flyers continue to play high-scoring after high-scoring game, their contests continue to average better than 7 goals, and last night another "over" in a 4-3 win over the Red Wings. Now less than 24 hours later, Philly's defense might be a step slower than usual, and note that the host Islanders are "over" 4-0-1 their last five games.
Harry Bondi
ATLANTA -3.5 over Tampa Bay
All the technical trends point to Tampa here but we will disregard those and play one of our favorite angles instead, REVENGE! Atlanta’s lone loss within division play this year is when they lost to the the Bucs at home in week 1, 31-24. Since that loss, the Falcons have become a very good football. Atlanta leads the NFL in yards per game with 425.2 and more importantly in points per game at 33 and have their revenge tonight against a Tampa Bay defense that is near the bottom of the league in all meaningful statistical categories. Revenge tastes sweet for the Falcons.