Free Picks for Thursday, November 9th, 2017 from some of the nations best and worst handicappers
Vernon Croy
North Carolina (+9) over Pittsburgh
This pick falls into one of my top CFB systems, and I feel we are getting great line value here with the Tar Heels, who could very well pull off the upset Thursday night. The Tar Heels have had a much tougher strength of schedule than Pitt this season, and that is the reason why their numbers don't appear to be as good. The Tar Heels have had the 12th -hardest strength of schedule in the country this season while the Panthers have had the 54th toughest. The Tar Heels are much better against the pass than Pitt, allowing just 156 ypg on the road this season compared to Pitt, who has allowed 303 ypg at home. If it wasn't for 4 turnovers, the Tar Heels would have beat Miami in their last game before their bye week, and I expect them to be focused on limiting turnovers in this game coming off the bye week. Both of these two teams are pretty banged up coming into this game, and the Tar Heels are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games against the Panthers. The Panthers are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 home games when playing a team with a losing record at home and they are also just 8-20 ATS in their last 28 home games overall. Play North Carolina ATS as they keep this game close and likely pull off the upset Thursday night.
DAVE COKIN
SEAHAWKS AT CARDINALS
PLAY: CARDINALS +6
I was hoping for the full seven on this game, and as I’m kind of a stickler for getting the desired price, I will leave this in the opinion category.
The Seahawks are still having offensive line issues, and I think it’s safe to say that at this point, that situation is not going to change. It’s actually a mystery to me as to why this problem, which existed last season as well, has not been properly addressed.
Arizona got a win on the road last week at San Francisco, and that means next to nothing as the 49ers are pretty ghastly right now. But a win is a win, and the Cardinals are, whether we choose to believe it or not, in the playoff conversation with a win tonight.
Drew Stanton is clearly not what anyone will consider a plus at QB. But I don’t know that he’s much of a downgrade from what was a very shopworn Carson Palmer. The whole key for Stanton is to simply manage the game and not lose it. If he avoids turnovers, the Cardinals will be in this game with a chance to get the upset.
This decision could be evident early. The Cardinals are not built to come from behind, so I think it’s imperative they hang tough in the opening quarter.
The Seahawks have been just plain lousy as road chalk lately, failing to cover all but one of their last seven tries in that role. They’ve got some injury issues and to be honest, I think they’re a bit overrated. The betting public disagrees and the majority of the tickets on this game will clearly be on Seattle. I see this one being competitive, and I would therefore prefer to side with the Cardinals tonight.
Cappers Club
Cavs vs. Rockets
Play: Over 228
This play just missed out on our premium card. The Cleveland Cavaliers and the Houston Rockets face off on Thursday, and with two teams who can really score, the over has the value.
These are both teams who have no issue putting the ball into the hoop with both teams coming into this game averaging 109.9 points per game.
Over the last five games for both of those teams that number has risen to over 114 though. The Cavaliers also have not shown much ability to play defense this year, which means the Rockets are going to have a field day.
Coming into this game the Cavaliers are giving up almost 114 points per game, and opponents are shooting 41.9 percent from three.
I expect James Harden will have no issue in this game, and light up the scoreboard.
Some trends to note. Over is 5-1 in Cavaliers last six road games. Over is 4-0 in Rockets last four overall.
Jack Jones
North Carolina vs. Pittsburgh
Play: Pittsburgh -9
It's pretty easy to figure out which team will be more motivated tonight in this game between Pittsburgh and North Carolina. We'll back the more motivated team here at home laying single-digits against a team in the Tar Heels that has nothing to play for but pride.
Sitting at 4-5 on the season, the Panthers need two more wins to get to a bowl game. They have fought hard to put themselves in this position by pulling off two straight upsets coming in. They won 24-17 at Duke as 9.5-point dogs, and dominated Virginia 31-14 at home as 1-point dogs. This team is trending in the right direction.
UNC is in the midst of a disastrous season, going 1-8 straight up with their only win coming against Old Dominion. They are 0-6 SU & 1-5 ATS in ACC play alone. The problem for them has been injuries as they have 22 players on the injury report that would be playing a role on this team. They simply do not have the numbers now due to these injuries.
Pittsburgh has really got the ground attack going the past two weeks, rushing for 336 yards on Duke and 176 on Virginia. The Panthers should be able to do whatever they want to on the ground in this one against a Tar Heels defense that is giving up 205 rushing yards per game.
The Panthers are 16-5 ATS in their last 21 home games off a win by 10 points or more over a conference rival. Plays on home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (PITTSBURGH) - in conference games, off an upset win by 10 points or more as a home underdog are 28-7 (80%) ATS since 1992.
Jimmy Boyd
Thunder vs. Nuggets
Play: Thunder Pk
It's been a bit of a rough stretch here for Oklahoma City, who has lost 3 straight and are now just 4-6 on the season. The most recent defeat came in Tuesday's embarrassing 86-94 loss at Sacramento as a 10.5-point favorite. I believe it has the Thunder in a prime bounce back spot and will gladly back them here at Denver as a pick'em.
Look for Russell Westbrook to take this game over, as he came out and took ownership for the poor play of late after that ugly loss to the Kings. A motivated Westbrook is bad news for the Nuggets, who just don't have anyone who can check him on the defensive side of the ball.
Denver has also been one of the more overvalued teams in the early going, as they are just 3-8 ATS on the season, which includes a 2-7 ATS mark over their last 9 games. The Nuggets are just 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games and 1-4 ATS in their last 5 off a win.
We also find a strong system in favor of a play on the Thunder. Games with a line of +3 to -3 where you have a team off 3 or more straight losses and playing their 3rd road game in 5 days (OKC) are 114-69 (62%) against the spread dating all the way back to 1996.
Ben Burns
Philadelphia at Sacramento
Play: Sacramento +7
When the money is flowing in one direction, sharps often lay their cash in the other. Money is coming down on the 76ers after Philly moved to 6-4 with a win over the Jazz on Tuesday, but the Kings themselves may be showing signs that they might not be as bad as everyone thought. Sacramento earned its biggest victory in a long time when it outscored Oklahoma City 60-32 in the middle two periods and earned a comfortable decision in its latest action. Buddy Hield was particularly impressive. Take the home team and the points as Sixers’ young players could be caught looking ahead to a weekend test at Golden State.
Ray Monohan
Lakers vs. Wizards
Play: Lakers +10½
The Lakers catch too many points here on Thursday night.
Situationally, this is a nice spot for the Lakers to cause some havoc. Washington has dropped 3 straight at home and really aren't playing all that well to start the season.
Allowing 109.6 points per game is not going to cut it against some of these teams as they are allowing easy looks at the rim and way too many open jump shots for the opposition.
Also here, expect PG Lonzo Ball to have a huge impact. After the Wizards called him out plenty of times earlier this season, the Lakers took them down in overtime in LA. Here is another case where you'll see inspired play all around from Ball and his teammates.
Some trends to note. Lakers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a straight up loss of more than 10 points.Lakers are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a straight up loss.
This one should be a scrappy, close affair.
Jim Feist
Cavaliers at Rockets
Pick: Over
The 5-6 Cleveland Cavaliers play at the 8-3 Houston Rockets tonight. Not really sure what Cleveland is doing these days. It appears they are taking a very casual approach to the regular season and it shows in their losing record. They also haven't been good to bettors, going 2-8-1 ATS. Meanwhile, the Rockets are 6-5 ATS on the season. Both teams are averaging the exact same points per game at 109.9. The biggest difference is that Cleveland is allowing 113.9 ppg while Houston allows just 103.3 ppg. Cleveland usually provides overs when they have at least a days rest, evidenced by their 27-11 O/U mark the last 38 times. The Cavs are also 47-23-1 (67%) over/under their last 71 overall. When the Rockets have had at least three days rest, they are 7-3 O/U their 10. These teams should get plenty of points here tonight.
Brandon Lee
North Carolina vs. Pittsburgh
Play: North Carolina +9½
As surprising as it might sound, I think there’s some value here with North Carolina as a decently priced road dog in this matchup. One thing you have to keep in mind with the Tar Heels 1-8 start is the brutal schedule they have had to play. Out of those 8 losses, 4 were against ranked teams and another was a road game against a very good Georgia Tech team. The other two were against Duke and Virginia, who I think are on par with Pittsburgh and they played both of those teams tough.
I also think this team gained some much-needed confidence with how well they played in their last game against Miami. At the same time, I don’t think the Tar Heels are simply going to just throw in the towel. I expect this team to come out and play their hearts out in this one to try and get that elusive first conference win.
The other big key here is I’m not sold on Pittsburgh being good enough to be laying this many points, especially with starting quarterback Max Browne sidelined for the rest of the season with a shoulder injury. Backup Ben Dinucci hasn’t exactly impressed in relief of Browne, as he’s completing just 54.9% of his attempts with as many touchdowns (4) as interceptions (4).
Pittsburgh’s offense has went from a pass-happy attack to one that almost exclusively relies on the running game since Browne went down. In their last two games they rushed it 57 times against Duke and had 40 rushing attempts against Virginia. While North Carolina’s defense isn’t anything to write home about, they did hold Miami to just 59 rushing yards on 32 attempts in their last game. If they have any kind of success slowing down this Pitt rushing attack, they not only can keep this within the number, but win the game outright.
It’s also worth pointing out that this is the part of the season where UNC head coach Larry Fedora has got his teams to play their best football, as the Tar Heels are 22-10 ATS under Fedora in weeks 10 through 13 of the regular season. North Carolina is also 30-15 ATS in their last 45 when coming in having failed to cover 4 or 5 of their last 6 and 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games played on Thursday.
Scott Rickenbach
Red Wings vs. Flames
Play: Red Wings +145
The Flames are off of a loss but each time over the last 3 weeks that they've had a loss follow a win, they've lost the very next game each time. Look for that pattern to continue here as this is a non-conference match-up and I look for Calgary to suffer their 3rd straight 2-game losing streak in the past 3 weeks. That's because they're off of a divisional match-up but now taking on an Eastern Conference foe and the Red Wings come into this game playing very well as they've won 4 of their last 5. Detroit has won 6 of 8 non-conference match-ups this season and they've allowed an average of just 2 goals per game in their last 7 games. The Flames have allowed 9 goals in their last 2 games and have given up 4 goals or more 4 times in their last 8 games. By comparison, the Red Wings have not allowed more than 3 goals in any of their last 7 games. Also, Calgary has lost 38 of 65 (-$11,700) when off of a divisional game.
Joe DelPopolo
Georgia Southern vs. Appalachian St
Play: Under 55
Based on my Stat-Key Power Rating System and predictive math-model I look for this game to go under the total. Georgia Southern struggles on offense and Appalachian State has a decent enough defense to keep this game under
Jim Feist
Seahawks at Cardinals
Play: Under 41.5
The 5-3 Seattle Seahawks take on the 4-4 Arizona Cardinals tonight in Phoenix. The Seahawks are just 2-6 ATS in their last eight road games. Arizona is 3-12 O/U in their last 15 home games while Seattle is 3-7 O/U in their last 10 vs the NFC West. Seattle is coming off a loss at home to the Redskins , 17-14. The offense failed to score as it had the prior week against the Texans where they put up 41 points. Arizona is coming off a road win at San Francisco, 20-10. The Cardinals offense has been stagnant since losing starting QB Palmer to injury. The offense has relied heavily on veteran Adrian Peterson, who rushed for over 170 yards last week and has been used a lot. Neither one of these teams have much in the way of offensive explosiveness. I look for a ground and pound game here by both clubs.
John Martin
Cavaliers vs. Rockets
Play: Rockets -5½
The Cleveland Cavaliers have been the worst defensive team in the NBA by a wide margin this season. Now they're up against a Houston Rockets team that is rolling right now, winning three straight while scoring 119, 119 and 137 points. Look for James Harden and company to continue making life miserable on the Cavaliers, who are 5-6 SU & 2-8-1 ATS in their 11 games this season. The culprit for their struggles has been defensive as they have allowed at least 112 points in nine consecutive games.
Rob Vinciletti
Ball State at Northern Illinois
Play: Northern Illinois -31
Ball St fits a system that has road dogs at 32-62 to the spread long term and they are 1-5 ats as a dog and have failed to cover 8 of 11 vs winning teams. The Huskies have covered 5 straight in the series and are 4-1 ats as a favorite of 31 or more, 6 of 8 in weeks 10-13 and 6 of 9 vs losing teams. Look for a blowout from start to finish. Play on Northern Illinois.