Bruce Marshall
Canucks at Ducks
Pick: Canucks
Get this...Vancouver is 5-1-0 on the road this season and has outscored foes 14-6 in a current 4-game road win streak. The Canucks, executing crisply on offense, have also been getting big work in goal from Jacob Markstrom, who ranks eighth in NHL goals against (2.36). Meanwhile the Ducks continue to deal with injuries and have yet to take flight.
ASA
New Orleans (+5.5) over Toronto
This is a very interesting number and we feel the value clearly lies with the Pelicans. The Raptors are 3-1 SU at home this year but two of those wins came against one of the worst teams in the league (Bulls) and the Philadelphia 76ers. The lone quality team they faced at home was Washington and they lost that game by double digits. The Pelicans have won 5 of their last six road games and have a front court (Cousins & Davis) that opponents are having a hard time stopping. You could say the Pelicans last three road wins have come against bad teams but the significant thing in all three of those games was the fact they were favored. Now they are getting a generous number here against an over-rated Raptors team. The key advantage here for New Orleans is on the boards as they are the 9th best rebounding team in the NBA compared to a Raptors team that is 24th. Grab the points.
Tommy Brunson
Despite the fact the Tar Heels own just 1 straight up win on the year, I think they are getting a few points too many here on Thursday night against the Panthers of Pitt.
Pittsburgh is feeling good about themselves right now, as they enter play tonight with a pair of wins in a row under their belt, and a win tonight will even their season mark at 5-5. The fact remains, the Panthers are playing with their back-up quarterback, and they are looking to end a 4 game series losing streak to the Tar Heels.
Oh sure, the North Carolina quarterback spot has been a real carousel this season, that's what happens when you are just 1-8 straight up, but the Heels do play off a bye-week, and the last time they were on the field they nearly upset still unbeaten Miami-Florida, losing just 24-19 in a game they did cover as the underdog.
A closer look at this series shows that each of the last 4 since Pitt joined the ACC have been decided by no more than a TD, and in fact the last 6 series meetings since 2000 have been decided by 7-points or less.
Grab the points as North Carolina and Pittsburgh play it close once again this season.
4* NORTH CAROLINA
Jeff Benton
Thursday's free is the Under in the Seahawks-Cardinals game.
Going to side with the Under to open up Week 10 of the NFL campaign, as I don't see Drew Stanton being able to shred this Seattle defense through the air, and therefore, I do not see too many Cardinals scores this Thursday night at home.
The Seahawks just played an Under at home on Sunday versus the Redskins, and have held Under the total in 3 of their last 4, and 5 of 8 overall this season. The Cardinals were also Under the total at San Francisco on Sunday to make it 2 straight Under the posted price, and Under the total in 6 of their last 7 this season.
The last pair of series meetings between these NFC West rivals played at Arizona have held Under the total, including that infamous 6-6 overtime tie last season. With Seahawks kicker Blair Walsh now having some doubt creep into his mind after missing 3 in as many tries on Sunday, look for the points to be at a premium this Thursday night.
Seattle-Arizona Under the total.
3* SEATTLE-ARIZONA UNDER
Chris Jordan
NFC West rivals take the field in Glendale, as the Seattle Seahawks visit the Arizona Cardinals. And I never thought I'd be saying this, but both are chasing the - gulp! - Los Angeles Rams in the division. This is going to be one helluva contentious battle, and I like the total to stay low.
Knowing the road team has covered five straight meetings, the Seahawks are going to be coming in with fire in their eyes after blowing a 14-10 lead with 1:34 left last Sunday against the visiting Washington Redskins. Seattle will be out for blood in this one, and I suspect the defense will be at its best in a bounce back manner. Seattle has allowed 18.6 points per game, which ranks fifth in the league, so that will dictate a lot.
Arizona will be just as physical, especially in front of the home faithful. The Cardinals are on a 2-1 run, and the one intangible for them has been a resurgent Adrian Peterson. The veteran running back is in after rushing a career-high 37 times for 159 yards in Sunday's 20-10 win at San Francisco. Arizona will look to duplicate the effort on the ground, which means a lot of running clock.
Seattle has stayed under in five straight against NFC foes, while the Cardinals are on under runs of 5-1 against the senior circuit, 12-3 at home, 9-3 in division play and 6-1 overall.
Play this one low.
1* Seahawks/Cardinals Under
Joey Juice
The Denver Nuggets host the Oklahoma City Thunder in Thursday night NBA action. There are two main factors in play here with this decision. First of all it is clearly obvious that while Oklahoma City may be an offensive force to be reckoned with in the future, at this moment they have not gelled, they have not displayed any cohesiveness, and they clearly will need more time in the oven to get their three superstars on the same page, and playing well on the same side of the floor.
Secondly, the Denver Nuggets will always get up to play Carmelo Anthony as they still haven't forgiven him for bailing out on them, even though he has proven since leaving that he cannot take a team deep into the playoffs let alone to a championship. He's a great player but he's just not that player.
A look inside the numbers tells a bleak story for the Thunder. They are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games on 1 day’s rest, they are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 versus the Western Conference, and they are 1-4 AST in their last 5 versus teams with a winning overall record.
Denver is the play.
3* DENVER
Eric Schroeder
With tonight's free winner, I'm taking a shot here with the Denver Nuggets on the moneyline against the Oklahoma City Thunder. There is a revenge factor to consider, and winless intangible to take in consideration.
The Nuggets are still stinging from Russell Westbrook's buzzer-beating 36-foot jumper last April that eliminated them from playoff contention. And then, just four weeks ago, Westbrook was called for a flagrant-1 foul on Denver center Nikola Jokic during a preseason game.
Denver hasn't forgotten any of this.
And the OKC intangible, well, it hasn't beaten a Western Conference team this year. The Thunder, projected to be one of the top teams in the West this year, is just 4-6, and a dismal 0-5 against intra-conference foes.
After seeing them lose in Sacramento on Tuesday, I have to wonder the mentality of this team, and if it can withstand an angry Nuggets team looking to exact revenge.
I'll take the home underdog to win outright.
2* NUGGETS ML
Rocketman
Lakers vs. Wizards
Play: Over 223
The Los Angeles Lakers travel to Washington to take on the Wizards on Thursday night. LA Lakers are hitting 46.8% from the field so far this season. The OVER is 42-22 last 3 years when Washington is coming off a non-conference game. LA Lakers are scoring 105.5 points per game overall this year and 110 points per game their past 5 games overall. LA Lakers are allowing 107.3 points per game overall this year and 111.5 points per game at home this season. Washington is scoring 111.4 points per game overall this year, 114.4 points per game at home this season and 110.8 points per game their past 5 games overall. Washington is allowing 109.6 points per game overall this year, 118.2 points per game at home this season and 108.8 points per game their past 5 games overall. The OVER is 5-2 last 7 games when the Lakers are playing with no rest. The OVER is 10-3-1 last 14 games when Washington is off a SU loss of 10 or more points. Expecting a high scoring game here tonight.
Dave Price
Georgia Southern vs. Appalachian State
Play: Appalachian State -17½
The Appalachian State Mountaineers should be a feisty bunch Thursday night. They are coming off two straight road losses to UMass (27-30) and LA Monroe (45-52) in games they had their chances. Off those two losses, they will be hungry for a victory tonight. The Mountaineers are only one game behind Arkansas State for the Sun Belt lead. They still have a lot to play for. The same cannot be said for Georgia Southern, which is 0-8 on the season. Georgia Southern is 0-4 on the road, getting outscored by a ridiculous 31.5 PPG away from home. App State won 34-10 at Georgia Southern last year and 31-13 at home in 2015 in their last two meetings. The Eagles are 4-13-1 ATS in their last 18 games overall.
Doug Upstone
Thunder vs. Nuggets
Play: Over 216
To this point the Oklahoma City situation has not worked out with the Thunder at 4-6 on the season. Defensively, OKC just been solid, but on offense it has been hit and miss. With tonight's total in Denver at 216 on TNT, know this; when the total is 210 to 219.5, and a team like the Thunder has gone under the total by 48 or more points total in their last ten games, being a marginal losing team (40% to 49%), playing a winning team, the outcome is 30-8 OVER the last 21 seasons.
SPORTS WAGERS
Chicago +103 over PHILADELPHIA
OT included. Both teams come in with identical 7-6-2 records but what’s more interesting is that the numbers under the hood are near identical too. It would therefore be reasonable to suggest that this is one of the most evenly matched games of season so far. In Corsi For %, Chicago and Philadelphia rank 16th and 17th in the league respectively. We could go through all the numbers here, both for and against each team and support the argument that the teams are pretty evenly matched. However, Chicago has a clear edge in net, where Corey Crawford has been outstanding this year while Brian Elliott isn’t even playing at a replacement level this year. Elliott is a #2 getting #1 playing time.
Elliott’s High Danger save % is .790, which ranks him 23rd in the NHL among qualified goaltenders. His overall save % ranks him 17th. In five of his last 10 games, Elliott has posted save percentages of .882, .760, ,806, .667 and .829. Elliott played for the goaltending desperate Flames last year and they couldn’t wait to ship his behind out. The Flyers figured he was a good investment so they signed to to a big contract and now they’re stuck playing him and paying him. Philadelphia had a #1 in its own backyard but failed to do the math. Michael Neuvirth, having played over 270 minutes this year, is a top-3 goaltender in several categories that include save % (.947) and expected Save %, where he ranks 1st overall in the NHL. Neuvirth will backup tonight again because Philadelphia’s brass (mainly GM Ron Hextall) doesn’t want to look foolish and bench a goaltender they’re paying almost three million to this season.
Elliott said he had a number of options in free agency, but the reason he signed a two-year contract with the Flyers came down to the person who reached out to him. "When a guy like Ron Hextall calls you and says he's liked you for a long time and wants to get you on this team, that's pretty special," Elliott said. "I wanted to take advantage of that opportunity."
Translation: The Flyers offered more money than anyone else.
Meanwhile, Corey Crawford has been rock solid and one of the best in the business in all areas of his game both above and below the surface. For argument sake, that’s assume that the game is evenly matched if we take out the goaltenders. Now throw the goaltenders into the equation and it’s a no-brainer as to which goaltender is more trustworthy. That doesn’t mean the Blackhawks will win, as this is just one game in which anything can happen but it does mean we have a big-time edge where outcomes are decided in a high majority of games.
Vancouver +125 over ANAHEIM
OT included. Written off for dead before the season started, Vancouver continues to play smart hockey with a chip on its shoulder. The Canucks have a strong determination about them this year that is getting stronger by the week. Their confidence is growing too. Two key factors for the Canucks have been goalie Jacob Markstrom, who ranks eighth in the NHL in goals against average and 11th in save percentage. The other factor has been a crisp and balanced offense. Overall this season, six players have recorded at least eight points, led by right winger Brock Boeser’s 14 (five goals, nine assists). The Canucks have also been very good on the road and they’re in a better situational spot here too.
Anaheim is coming off three games in a row against its most hated rivals, Nashville, San Jose and Los Angeles. Losing all three to run its losing streak to four can’t be helping its psyche either. The Ducks continue to give up far too many quality scoring chances against, as their 23rd place ranking in that department will attest to. Analytically speaking, the Canucks rank higher than Anaheim in several key categories. The Ducks rank 26th out of 31 teams in Corsi For % while the Canucks rank 13th. In Corsi Against, Vancouver ranks fifth best in the league while the Ducks rank 22nd. The Ducks numbers will improve as soon as they start getting some healthy bodies back but right now the Canucks are playing a superior brand of hockey and things point to them being in a much better state of mind too. Throw in a price on this live pup and it seals the deal.
Pass NFL & NCAAF
Big Al
Vancouver vs. Anaheim
Pick: Anaheim -137
Vancouver has won its last four road games, including Tuesday's game in Calgary. But I look for that road win streak to come to an end tonight in Anaheim, as the Ducks should be in an ornery mood following a 4-3 home loss to rival Los Angeles. That was the Ducks' fourth straight defeat, but they're 32-18 their last 50 off a loss, and also 17-6 after allowing more than three goals in their previous game.
Harry Bondi
SEATTLE (-6) over Arizona
Look for the Seahawks to come out on fire tonight after allowing Washington to go 70 yards in 35 seconds to lose last Sunday. Seattle out-gained Washington 437 to 244 but lost because they were not able to score touchdowns in the red zone and kicker Blair Walsh missed 3 chip shot field goals! This is a must win for Seattle as there schedule gets much tougher after tonight. Seahawks won and covered last 3 in the desert and make it 4 straight tonight!
Executive Sports
Thunder at Nuggets
Play: Nuggets +1
OKC is 2-4 SU & ATS on the road so far this season. They have not beaten a team with a winning record, as their wins came against (2-7) Chicago and (4-6) Milwaukee. Denver is 6-5 overall and 4-2 at home. They are 3-1 so far in this 6 game home stand. OKC is 8-20 ATS in road games versus good offensive teams scoring 106+ points/game over the last 3 seasons. Denver is averaging 106.5 points/game, and at home they're averaging 107.3 points/game. OKC is 0-5 SU vs. Western Conf opponents this season.