Free Picks and Premium Service Plays for Thursday, October 13th, 2016 from some of the nations best and worst handicappers.
Jim Feist
Boston at Columbus
Pick: Under
Boston focuses on defense for coach Claude Julian. Their defense was decimated by injuries last year, and the Under is 23-9-8 when the Bruins face the Metropolitan division. John Tortorella -- who took over for Todd Richards in Columbus last season after the Blue Jackets' miserable 0-7 start -- is coming off a disappointing turn as head coach of Team USA at the World Cup of Hockey. He is a defensive-first coach and netminder Sergei Bobrovsky once again was dragged down by injury and inconsistent play but is healthy. And the Under is 10-4-1 in the last 15 meetings.
Ray Monohan
Dodgers vs. Nationals
Play: Under 7
It's Game 5 on Thursday and the Dodgers and Nationals head into Washington for it. Here, the Under holds value. First off, nerves come into play. There's going to be a lot of early nerves as every player knows whats on the line here. With those nerves comes a lot of swings and misses. Given that two very talented pitchers are on the mound here, this is going to be a very tough spot for both lineups. Both teams will also have no issue playing small ball. Given that just a run or two could win this, bunting and manufacturing runs is a viable option. Some trends to note. Under is 12-3-1 in Nationals last 16 games following a loss. Under is 15-6-2 in Dodgers last 23 games following a win. Expect a lot of tension, shaky legs, and small ball here. Both Rich Hill and Max Scherzer are not pitchers hitters want to face in a Game 5 situation.
Rob Vinciletti
Capitals vs. Penguins
Play: Capitals -113
The Caps, last years #1 overall team had their Cup dreams dashed by Pittsburgh. Now they open up in a big revenge spot here in Pittsburgh to take on a Penguins team that will be without S. Crosby and goalie M.Murray. The Pens are 2-14 as a regular season home dogs and Washington is 23-7 as a regular season road favorite and was 4-0 on the road in October last year. Washington had a solid preseason as well. Look for them to take the opener.
Stephen Nover
Capitals -115
I'm not in love with laying a road price against the defending Stanley Cup champion Penguins, who have won 25 of their last 33 home matchups, but I want the Capitals going for me in this game.
And it's not just because Sidney Crosby is out for the Penguins.
The Capitals had the best record in the NHL last season, finishing 16 points ahead of the Penguins. But the Penguins eliminated them during the Eastern Conference semifinals. Now the Capitals have to watch, in person, the Penguins get to raise the Stanley Cup banner during pregame ceremonies. That's also a distraction for the Penguins.
The Capitals not only hold an offensive edge with the Penguins down Crosby, but an advantage in goal, too, with Braden Holtby against Marc-Andre Fleury. It was Matt Murray, not Fleury, who helped the Penguins win the Stanley Cup with tremendous goaltending. Murray, though, suffered a broken hand during the World Cup.
The combination of revenge, more offensive firepower and a superior goalie should push the Capitals past the Penguins here.
Matt Mohr
Broncos vs. Chargers
Play: Under 45½
Denver travels to sunny San Diego to play the snake bitten Chargers. My modeling is leading me toward the under in this one. This is a classic battle of offense against defense. The outcome of the last 7 matchups between these teams has produced 5 unders so D wins in this game . SD is coming into the game averaging a crazy 30.4 points per game against the likes of the Raiders, Saints, Colts and Jags. With that said Denver has one of the best defenses in the league giving up 17 points per game. I expect injuries to play into this one with QB Trevor Seimian probable but will still be playing with the lingering effects which will not allow his to throw the ball down field. SD will not be able to handle the pressure put on by the Denver front 7 and expect to see a lot of 3rd and longs.
David Banks
Broncos @ Chargers
Pick: Under 45
Denver head coach Gary Kubiak will miss Thursday night’s game as he recovers from some health issues. Chargers head coach Mike McCoy might not be around for too many more games either unless he can figure out a way to win some football games. San Diego has lost five straight to the Broncos and has won just five times in their past 21 games.
The Chargers have figured out new ways to lose games. Last week, it was a fumbled snap on a field goal that would have tied the game against Oakland. Instead, San Diego lost another close game, 34-31. The Chargers lost their previous game to New Orleans by one, to the Colts by four, and the season opener to Kansas City by six.
The San Diego offense is not the problem. The Chargers are led by QB Philip Rivers (1,469 yards, 11 TDs) and average 30.4 points per game, second in the NFL. The defense is hurting. San Diego gives up 28.4 points a game, near the bottom of the league. That Chargers defense will have an opportunity to face a rookie quarterback on Thursday.
Paxton Lynch replaced Trevor Siemian in the Broncos’ loss to the Falcons last week. Lynch, the Broncos first-round draft pick earlier this year, will get his first NFL start against the Chargers. He played like a rookie last week, but he showed flashes of what he is capable of in the future. It will be up to Rivers and the San Diego offense to score against one of the league’s most feared defenses.
Tony Finn
Denver at San Diego
Play: Denver -3
The Denver Broncos (4-1) and the San Diego Chargers (1-4) take Thursday Night Football center stage in an AFC West contest between two teams coming off Sunday Week #5 losses. The Broncos are no longer undefeated after dropping a Mile High affair against the NFC Atlanta Falcons and the Chargers continued to suffer poor luck in their defeat on Sunday at the hand of the Raiders in Oakland.
Denver Broncos quarterback Trevor Siemian, who was held out of the loss Sunday to the Falcons with an injury to his left (non-throwing) shoulder, told the local media that he had made strides the past week and expected to start Thursday night at Qualcomm Stadium against the home town San Diego Chargers.
Asked if he expected to start in SoCal, Siemian said Tuesday: "Yeah, I think so. I think I'm expecting to play.''
Broncos
This short week plays to the advantage Denver despite the game being a divisional road tilt and the team’s supposed hoped return of their injured quarterback to the role that saw the franchise win their first four games of the 2016 season. First, the Broncos are quite familiar with the Chargers, quarterback Phillip Rivers, and the San Diego offense. Working on short rest and little time to prepare isn’t a significant liability for the stellar defensive unit of the Broncos.
Siemian’s health is no longer an issue and while the team says they will wait until Thursday to announce whom will start behind center against the Chargers Siemian is listed as probable. The first loss of the season for the Broncos can be primarily charged to the NFL debut of rookie quarterback Paxton Lynch. Siemian's steady hand and the confidence of the coaching staff lacked in the Broncos loss to Atlanta last Sunday. The game wasn’t as close as the 23-16 final score and Lynch was extremely uncomfortable in his role as the starter in front of the home town faithful. Lynch’s performance was not impressive and his 81.0 passer rating looks better than the rookie actually performed. He was sacked six times by a team that had the fewest quarterback sacks and pressures through the first four weeks of the 2016 campaign and the Denver signal caller had zero pocket presence. Siemian isn’t John Elway or Peyton Manning by any means, but he plays with his head on a swivel, and doesn’t make poor decision. Siemian was sacked just five times the team’s first three games.
Siemian told the Denver Post, “Getting better every day,” he said before Tuesday’s practice session. “The last couple of days I’ve kind of made some strides. Taking it one day at a time and going from there.”
The probable status for Siemian to make the start is contingent on him getting the approval of the training staff making him a game day decision. There are also question marks surrounding whom will be calling the plays from the sidelines for the Broncos, this with head coach Gary Kubiak suffering from complex migraines. Interim bench boss Joe DeCamillis said the decision on the starting quarterback will be a collaborative decision, drawing input from team trainers, coordinators and general manager John Elway.
Lynch, making his first career start with Siemian sidelined registered surface numbers that at first glance appeared to be satisfactory. Lynch completed 23-of-35 of his passes for 223 yards and a touchdown. He was, however, off target badly on his incomplete throws and lacked the toughness of an experienced NFL signal caller. He threw only one interception but realistically could have been picked on two other occasions. He held the ball far too long inside a collapsing pocket rather than throw the pigskin away resulting in a large number of hurries and sacks.
Siemian gives the offense opportunities that Lynch can’t provide. The talent of running back C.J. Anderson and receivers Emmanuel Sanders and Demaryius Thomas were not utilized by Lynch.
Chargers
Despite another loss Sunday the Bolts moved up the offensive ranking charts. The offense has been efficient early in games and when playing from behind but in critical moments during the first five weeks of the season have failed miserably. They have been competitive in all of their four losses, to the end, but the team doesn’t have the defense or the leadership on offense outside of Phillip Rivers to close games out.
The Bolts lost their third straight game and fell for the 10th consecutive time against teams from the AFC West on Sunday and while it was special teams, on a late fourth quarter field goal attempt that failed them in Oakland, it is their defense as a whole that is the primary concern. The Chargers blew fourth-quarter leads in their first three losses due to lack of focus and a defense that has zero ability to step up and play a soft zone scheme.
Chargers' starting signal-caller Rivers completed 21-of-30 passes for 359 yards and four touchdowns against two interceptions. It wouldn’t be fair to solely finger point all of the Chargers issues at the defensive unit but the stop-unit has been the Achilles for the last two season. The Chargers are 0-10 in the division since November 2014 and 6-14 in the AFC West during Mike McCoy’s time as the Chargers head coach. With weapons Melvin Gordon and Dexter McCluster out of the backfield and receivers Tryrell Williams plus Travis Williams piling up yards has not been a problem for San Diego.
While San Diego has the ability to put points on the scoreboard their defense has shown little prowess in preventing the opposition from doing the same. For the second consecutive season the team has suffered a plethora of injuries with most being on the defensive side of the football. LB Denzel Perryman (shoulder) was present during Tuesday’s practice session, as was S Jahleel Addae (clavicle), but both were limited and practiced without full gear. The loss of CB Brandon Flowers (concussion), who is not expected to play on Thursday night, has put a strain on the team’s secondary.
Key Trends
The visitors are an incredible 14-3 against the spread in the last 17 contests at Qualcomm.
Denver is 15-4 ATS versus the Chargers in their last 19 meetings.
Outlook
The Chargers have lost nine of their last 10 games against Denver and haven’t defeated the Broncos straight up since they were a playoff contending unit (2013). Since fighting his way through a mediocre Game #1 performance against the Carolina Panthers where he tossed one touchdown and two interceptions, Siemian has thrown five touchdown passes and one interception. He’s tied for ninth in the NFL with a 99.6 passer rating, and his 67.3 completion percentage and 8.16 yards per attempt also rank in the top 10.
The Broncos offense was anemic in Sunday’s loss to Atlanta and it affected their defensive performance.
The Chargers have week-after-week shown their ability to compete offensively but they have yet to face a defense as capable as the Broncos and that will become evident on Thursday night.
San Diego blew a lead with just over a minute remaining against the Indianapolis Colts in Week #3; the team led the New Orleans Saints by 13 points with less than seven minutes to go in their Week #4 affair, and fumbled a field goal attempt in the closing minutes against the Raiders last Sunday. All of this comes on the heels of letting a 21-point lead go in Week #1 against the Chiefs at Arrowhead.
While one would like to offer the Chargers a bone and believe the team is overdue for a 60-minute performance and some better luck the pattern more resembles who they are and who they will be the rest of the season.
Our game of the year free pick is Denver Broncos -4 points.
Nelly
Denver at San Diego
Play: San Diego
The Broncos expect to have Trevor Siemian back this week and while rookie Paxton Lynch didn't play well in his first start it was a mediocre showing from the great Denver defense that landed the first loss for the Broncos. Denver allowed 372 yards in the 23-16 loss to the Falcons and it was a 23-6 game late into the fourth quarter as the final score was a bit misleading. Denver has won nine of the last 10 meetings between these teams and the Broncos were twice as high of a road favorite in a 17-3 win at San Diego last season. The Super Bowl champions are getting perhaps a little too much respect for a 4-1 start that includes wins over teams that are now 7-13 with a quartet of four of the most disappointing teams in the league. The Chargers are 1-4 in a season that may already be lost despite strong production and holding another late lead last week in a loss at Oakland. The defeats have come by 6 (in OT), 4, 1, and 3 as this is a hard team to fade as an underdog and another competitive showing seems likely. San Diego is the second best scoring team in the NFL despite its record and the fourth most prolific passing team in the league as they will be a threat in this game even if they fall behind. With a price above a field goal a Chargers team that is on a 49-25-3 ATS run as an underdog deserves a look and there is a real possibility that Paxton Lynch could start this game even though most assume Siemian will be cleared to play.
Jim Mack
Broncos at Chargers
Play: Broncos -3
Denver has won its last five trips to San Diego, the most recent three coming in the road chalk role, so the situation on Thursday night will not be anything unusual Furthermore, this AFC West series has been dominated by road teams overall, as visitors boast an 11-1-1 ATS record in the L13 contests. How come so little home field advantage exists in a series such as this? Familiarity is the only explanation that I can think of, and in the case of San Diego, local fans have soured on the teams and most fans of the opposing teams travel well to the area. That said, this is a new game all to itself and should be treated accordingly. The Broncos come off their first loss of 2016 but get quarterback Trevor Simien back in the fold. They were 4-0 with him before he missed the loss to Atlanta last week. They were definitely a far more conservative passing attack with rookie Paxton Lynch running the show. On the opposite sideline, QB Philip Rivers has been solid in the early going but his team is just 1-4 already against one of the league’s weakest schedules. In fact, the Chargers scoring average of 30.4 PPG looks much more pedestrian when you consider that their opponents have allowed 28.4 PPG on average. If that holds, San Diego would only be expected to get about 19 on Thursday, which would be fortunate if you ask me. Rivers figures to be under duress all night, and Denver should get back on the winning track, even without HC Gary Kubiak on the sideline.
Wunderdog
New York Islanders @ New York Rangers
Pick: New York Islanders +125
The NY Islanders are a talented group, finishing last season at #11 in goals scored, and #13 in goals allowed. They reached the postseason for the third time in four seasons. Captain and leading scorer John Tavares has 13 goals and 33 points in 35 games versus the Rangers. They have a short road trip to a NY Rangers team that decided to get younger in the offseason. After getting manhandled in a first-round loss to Pittsburgh, the Rangers revamped their roster, including the trade of leading goal scorer Derick Brassard. The Rangers have lost seven straight games when playing on three or more days of rest. The Islanders have dominated the series lately, winning all four matchups last year for their first season sweep in the series. They have won four straight in this building and the road team is 13-4 in the last 17 meetings.
Marc Lawrence
Broncos vs. Chargers
Play: Under 45½
Edges - Broncos: 4-10 UNDER last 14 division away games. Chargers: 1-5 UNDER last six game here in this series. With San Diego 2-9 UNDER in division home games following a division game, we recommend a 1* play on the UNDER total in this game.
Brandon Lee
Nationals -144
Washington is worth a look here in the decisive Game 5 against the Dodgers. The Nationals are a great home team, having gone 50-31 at home in the regular season. The home team has a big advantage in these win or go home scenarios, but that's not the only reason to back Washington in this one. The Nationals will have their ace Max Scherzer on the mound and he's without a doubt one of the best pitchers in the game. Scherzer should be locked in on a full 5-days of rest and were talking about a guy who has went 20-8 with a 3.03 ERA and 0.964 WHIP in 35 starts this season. Nationals are 6-0 in their last 6 following a loss and 4-0 in Scherzer's last 4 starts on 5 days of rest.
Sean Murphy
Anaheim vs. Dallas
Play: Dallas -130
The Stars are coming off a bitter playoff disappointment last spring but by all accounts they’ve put that in the rear-view mirror and are ready to get rolling as the puck drops on the 2016-17 regular season on Thursday night.
I like the continuity on this team, with a strong core of returning players led by Jamie Benn and Tyler Seguin. The Stars did shuffle out a few blue liners but I really like the addition of Dan Hamhuis to soften the blow.
Goaltending has been a sore spot in Dallas for years but Keri Lehtonen is being given another chance to prove he can be the guy between the pipes and I’m confident he’ll perform well out of the gates.
As far as I’m concerned, the window of opportunity is closing for the current Ducks roster, which has seemingly disappointed year after year since last hoisting the Cup nearly a decade ago.
The absences of Hampus Lindholm and Rickard Rakell shouldn’t be underestimated as Anaheim opens the new season. Both are currently stalled in contract negotiations and holding out as a result.
We’re being asked to pay a considerable tariff to back the Stars here in their home opener, but it’s warranted in my opinion.
Dave Price
Dodgers/Nationals Over 7
I like the OVER in today's Game 5 between the Washington Nationals and Los Angeles Dodgers. Both Rich Hill and Max Scherzer struggled in their initial starts in this series. Hill gave up 4 earned runs in 4 1/3 innings in Game 2, while Scherzer allowed 4 earned runs in 6 innings in Game 1. All four games in this series have seen at least 7 combined runs thus far, and that trend should continue here. The OVER is 7-1 in Dodgers last 8 when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game. The OVER is 6-1 in the last 7 meetings.