Doug Upstone
Chiefs vs. Raiders
Play: Chiefs -3
Kansas City has committed one turnover all season and that came in Game 1. Oakland is unlikely to change that much if at all with just five forced turnovers all season. Add these elements together and road favorites like the Chiefs averaging 1.25 or fewer turnovers/game, against a team with 1.25 or less turnovers/game forced, after four consecutive games where they committed one or less turnovers, are 24-4 ATS, 85.7%!
Jack Jones
Los Angeles vs. Chicago
Play: Los Angeles -155
The Los Angeles Dodgers will close out the series tonight. Clayton Kershaw gets his shot at redemption here after previous postseason struggles, and I think he takes advantage and closes the door on the Chicago Cubs.
Kershaw has gone 18-4 with a 2.31 ERA in 27 starts this season. Surprisingly, Kershaw has only pitched in one series clincher, throwing six scoreless frames to beat Atlanta in the 2013 NLDS. He'll clinch his second series tonight.
Jose Quintana posted a 4.76 ERA in eight starts at Wrigley Field this season. He'll be backed by a suspect Chicago offense that has had all seven of their runs in four games in this series scored on homers. Dodgers relievers have pitched 20 consecutive scoreless innings while giving up only three hits in the series.
The Dodgers are 25-8 in their last 33 vs. NL Central opponents. Los Angeles is 8-1 in its last nine vs. a team with a winning record. The Dodgers are 6-1 in the last seven meetings with Chicago.
Mark Franco
Clippers vs. Lakers
Play: Clippers -6
The Los Angeles Lakers have a new front office led by Hall of Famer Magic Johnson and a new roster that includes No. 2 overall draft pick Lonzo Ball. The Los Angeles Clippers, who will serve as the visitors in the arena shared by both teams in their season opener on Thursday, have a new look as well after waving goodbye to point guard Chris Paul over the summer.
The preseason expectations are lower with the departure of Paul, but Los Angeles did manage to keep another of its stars by signing power forward Blake Griffin to a five-year, $173 million extension. Griffin averaged 21.6 points and 8.1 rebounds last season but only played in 61 games - the third straight season in which he failed to reach 70 games - and is excited for the opportunity to work with his new teammates.
Los Angeles owned the league's third-worst scoring defense in 2016-17, allowing an average of 111.5 points.
The Clippers have taken three straight and 14 of the last 15 in the series.
Clippers are 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 games playing on 3 or more days rest. Lakers are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 vs. NBA Pacific.
Dave Price
Memphis vs. Houston
Play: Over 62
The Key: Considering Memphis and Houston combined for 92 points last year in a 48-44 home victory by the Tigers, I think this number is short Thursday night at only 62 points. They also combined for 69 points in 2015. Not much has changed with these teams. Memphis is even better on offense than it was last year, and it boasts a terrible defense. Houston is similar defensively and slightly down offensively compared to last year. But after they combined for 1,179 total yards last year, I'll take my chances with the OVER here. The OVER is 7-1 in Tigers last 8 Thursday games. The OVER is 9-4 in Cougars last 13 Thursday games.
Tony Karpinski
Chiefs vs. Raiders
Play: Raiders +3
I think the Steelers put out the blueprint for beating and maintain the KC offense. The Chiefs have leapt Over in all but one outing as coach Andy Reid has loosened the reins. The Raiders, shockingly, rank 30th for yards gained per game. After a rousing first two weeks offensively, Oakland has scrounged out an average of 13.5 points since. Marshawn Lynch has been limited to an average of 34 yards during the losing streak but I think you'll see a heavy dose of him Thursday night. QB David Carr is dealing with an injured back but this is a big divisional game for the Raiders. It looked like the Steelers found a way to maintain the KC offense. All of these factors add up to a RAIDERS and Under play in Thursday night football.
TJ Pemberton
Islanders vs. Rangers
Play: Rangers -120
The New York Rangers have now lost four straight games. The Rangers will host the NY Islanders on Thursday after losing to the Penguins 5-4 in overtime on Tuesday. the Rangers are 1-5-1 on the season and 1-3-1 at Madison Square Garden. The Rangers average 2.43 goals per game which ranks 25th in the NHL. Henrik Lundqvist will make his 7th start of the season for the Rangers. Lundqvist is 1-3-1 on the season with 17 goals allowed. Lundqvist carries a 3.23 goals against average and a .902 save percentage.
The New York Islanders lost in LA 3-2 on Sunday and now will head cross town on Thursday night. The Islanders are 2-3-1 on the season and are 1-3 on the road. The Islanders average 2.50 goals per game which ranks 24th in the NHL. Jaroslav Halak will make his 4th start on the season. Halak has played in 5 games this season and has allowed 9 goals. Halak carries a 2.62 goals against average and a .907 save percentage. Both New York teams are not looking good right now. The Rangers have lost 5 straight and have beat themselves in a few of those. Morale is low for the Rangers right now and the Islanders own this series at MSG.
Chase Diamond
Los Angeles vs. Chicago
Play: Los Angeles -154
3-1 Dodgers at the 1-3 Cubs. Boy we barely got bye with our play on the Cubs the Dodgers are so talented in their bullpen that once you get to the 7th inning game is over IMO and with the best pitcher in Baseball going Clayton Kershaw this is a easy call.
Jimmy Boyd
Clippers vs. Lakers
Play: Under 219
I really like the value here with the UNDER in tonight's showdown between the Lakers and Clippers on TNT. This would have been a decent number last year, but these are two completely different teams. The Lakers are adjusting to life with rooking point guard Lonzo Ball. He's extremely talented, but his jump shot still needs a lot of work. I think Ball is going to have his hands full in this one, as he's up against one of the best defenders at the position in Patrick Beverley. He's going to do everything in his power to make life miserable for Ball and if he struggles the offensive output figures to take a hit. This Lakers team also has a new focus on the defensive end, as they really made it a point of emphasis to get better on that side of the ball. They showed some positive signs of being improved in the preseason and I think it carries over here against a Clippers team that figures to find life a lot more difficult offensively without Chris Paul at the point. Not to mention they lost their best 3-point shooter in J.J. Reddick and elite bench scorer Jamal Crawford. It doesn't hurt matters that the UNDER has cashed 9 times in the last 11 meetings.
SPORTS WAGERS
OAKLAND +129 over Kansas City
On paper, this looks like an easy rebound for quarterback Alex Smith and company, as he’s owned the Raiders by going 9-1 in his last 10 games and putting up 19 touchdowns to just four picks in those contests. This includes five straight since Derek Carr became the Raiders starter so it’s not like the Chiefs dominance can be attributed to weak Oakland QBs. Last week at home to the Steelers, Kansas City suffered its first loss of the season. The Chiefs looked to be in trouble from the get-go and star rookie runner Kareem Hunt had his worst rushing day of the season with just 21 yards. To give you an idea how bad it was, Smith had a better yards per carry than Hunt and the longest run of the day at 11 yards. While we are not here to discredit what the Chiefs have done through the first six weeks of the season, we also know that the market has forgiven them for a lousy effort against some outstanding talent in Pittsburgh. That game was being set up as a dangerous one for K.C. and as it turned out, it was. The Chiefs are without question the favorite to represent the AFC in the Super Bowl. Surely, they’re not going to drop two straight, especially against a sinking ship like the Raiders, right? Before you think along those lines, consider that Thursday night games are unpredictable. They have featured flat teams often ever since the game was introduced. It’s not a normal week at all and this line is screaming out to be very careful about backing the chalk. We’ll heed those warnings.
While the Raiders were a popular preseason pick by many, we were skeptical about their ability to repeat last year’s stellar season that ended with an injury to star quarterback Derek Carr and a playoff loss to the Texans that featured probably the worst QB matchup the NFL postseason has ever seen between Oakland’s Connor Cook and Houston’s Brock Osweiler. The Raiders’ preseason hype train was real and it was loaded with pundits willing to tout that Oakland might challenge the Patriots for supremacy in the AFC. Oh how the mighty have fallen. At 2-4, Oakland looks cooked. When a team is left for dead that’s when we like to come and pick the bones. The Raiders lost a one-point game at home to the displaced Chargers last Sunday but we’re willing to forgive Carr for needing to knock the rust off after missing one game with an injury, especially on "hate week" against known bitter man, Philip Rivers. Last week the Chargers were desperate to get a win off the backs of a hated division foe and this week the Raiders now move to that role. Like Carr, the Raiders are damaged goods in the market. The division title is a pipe dream and the playoffs aren’t far behind but Oakland now moves into a spoiler role. The Steelers showed there were kinks in the Chiefs’ armor and put the blueprint to beat them in on tape.
Kansas City is a known commodity in this market while the Raiders have been nothing but a letdown to start the season. We doubt one loss will deter the masses but the bright lights you see in Vegas were built on the backs of seemingly superior teams laying a short price on the road in prime time falling, especially in a division game on a short week. We know the Raiders are not necessarily the better team here but by backing them we also know that we are going with the best of it, which is what we preach every day. We lean to the Raiders but not enough to get behind them as we prefer others in Sunday so much more. Recommendation is Oakland.
SPORTS WAGERS
Edmonton -103 over CHICAGO
Before we begin and until further notice, we’re going to be splitting up our NHL underdogs into two bets. We’re playing them straight up for 1 unit and we’ll be playing them on the reverse puck line (-1½) for 1 unit, thus making up our traditional 2 unit bet. The thinking is that if the dog loses, we lose our bet anyway. If the game goes into OT, which is a coin-toss anyway, we lose our -1½ bet but have a chance to profit a pork-chop if we happen to get lucky and win it in the extra time. If our team is winning by a goal, we know for sure we’ll get a crack at an empty netter and there is also a good chance that if our team is ahead, it might be by more than one goal anyway. Therefore, our bet for this game and every dog we play will be -1½ for 1 unit and straight up for one unit.
The Blackhawks lost 5-2 in St. Louis last night and were outshot in the first period, 17-6. They ended up getting outshot 33-24 so they stepped it up after the first but will now play the tail end of back-to-backs after chasing a game against a team they hate with a passion. That does not set them up well for this one. Chicago is in second place in the West just behind St. Louis, which masks all their shortcomings. While we like the direction the Blackhawks are going, there are going to plenty of rough nights along the way because they are a weak defensive squad. Chicago is a bottom five team in both Corsi For and scoring chances against. They already have two losses by 5-2 scored and they were very lucky to beat Montreal after getting outshot 42-25. Remember that 4-3 OT loss in Toronto? Well, the Blackhawks were outshot in that one too, 43-21. Chicago has taken 25 minors over its past five games, which is another problem they figure to run into here in the second game of back-to-backs. Chicago will improve as the year wears on but right in this spot against this intruder, they are a big time risk.
Just five games in and the market has turned on the Oilers like a pit bull turns on a six-year-old. Five games in and it’s hard to imagine that we’re getting such an early opportunity to buy low on such a good team but that’s what four losses in a row will do. Once again, we’ll point out to not buy results. Buy ingredients and the results will come. Edmonton has created more scoring chances per game than any team in the NHL and it’s not close. They are creating an average of 28 per game but good puck luck has not been their friend. In their last game, the Oilers were stonewalled by Cam Ward of all people when the ‘Canes goaltender swiped away 48 of 51 shots in a 5-3 Carolina win. Cam Talbot has a save percentage of .883. The Oilers have been on the extreme side of bad luck thus far with 144 scoring chances for and just 86 against. The preseason projections on the Oilers were not off. This team is indeed a juggernaut but what is off is the market overreaction to a 1-4 start. Edmonton now gets out of Edmonton for the first of three games on the road and they’ll come into this one in a foul mood. Chicago is likely their first victim on said road trip and we’re on it.
Carolina +111 over CALGARY
OT included. Everything is rosy in Calgary at the moment, as the team is off to a 4-2 start and it is getting some reliable goaltending. That looks pretty on paper but the performance on the ice isn’t as pretty. Calgary has been outshot in every game but one. They are a middle of the pack team in every analytical category and that’s after playing a rather easy schedule. There are other issues too. The Flames can’t stay out of the box. They have taken seven minor penalties in each of their last two games and five minors or more in four straight. They come into this game as the most penalized team in the NHL, which is a strong indication that they’re chasing the puck. The addition of Jaromir Jagr doesn’t make them any quicker and it’s a questionable signing too. Jagr does not belong on the same line with Johnny Hockey and Sean Monahan or any other line for that matter. Lastly, the Flames have been off for four days, which is too long a break and there is a great chance they’ll be flat early on.
Carolina has played the fewest games (4) in the NHL. To give you an idea of how misleading final scores are, consider that the Hurricanes outshot their first their first three opponents by a count of 109 to 74 and picked up one OT win. In its last game in Edmonton, Carolina was outshot 51-21 (!) and won 5-3 in Edmonton. Coach Bill Peters of the ‘Canes called their last game “one of the worst performances” since he’s been here. Now for the first time this year, Carolina will play with one day off between games instead of a two, three or four day break. It matters. The Hurricanes are a top-10 puck possession team and that’s after playing the entire game in Edmonton without the puck. Prior to that game, they were the league’s top puck possession team. The ‘Canes will be better tonight and their best game is better than Calgary’s best game every time.
New Jersey +140 over OTTAWA
OT included. The Senators are 3-1-2 and have picked up eight out of a possible 12 points, which has them sitting in third place in the Eastern Conference just behind Toronto and Tampa Bay. The Sens three victories all came on the Canadian West Coast when they swept Calgary, Edmonton and Vancouver while outscoring that trio by a resonating count of 15-3. Don’t buy it because the scores does not tell the story. The Sens have losses to Detroit, Washington and Vancouver, which is three of the worst defensive teams in the NHL but what sticks out most is that after six games, Ottawa is dead last in Corsi For % at 43.45%. That means that Ottawa is usually skating without the puck. The Sens scoring chances for and against differential of 99 for and 135 against is another alarming number. They are +7 in goal differential, which really reveals that how fortunate they have been. Getting out-chanced 135-99 is conducive to being +7 in goal differential.
Tampa Bay and Toronto are sitting 1-2 atop the East. The Devils just beat them both while scoring 11 goals in the process. They were down 1-0 to Tampa, 3-2 and 4-3 before winning it in a shootout, 5-4. The point is that the Devils have the ability to come from behind. In year’s past when they fell behind by a goal, it was pretty much game over. That gives a team and its goaltender all the confidence in the world. The Devils have some flaws to be sure. They are going to have to tighten up defensively and stay out of the box but for now, they’re having fun, they’re scoring goals, they’re winning and they’re dangerous. That’s more than enough reason to get behind them once again or at least until they cool off. The market still isn’t buying the Devils success but we’re not buying Ottawa’s.
Pass MLB & NCAAF
Ben Burns
Chicago vs. Toronto
Pick: Toronto -12.5
The Bulls have dominated the Raptors in recent years. That finally changed towards the end of last season, the Raptors breaking through with a 122-120 victory. The "monkey off their back" and now facing a considerably watered-down version of the Bulls, I expect the Raptors to deliver a "blowout victory" this evening. The Raptors were a lucrative 37-26-2 (43-22 SU) in the first half of the season, the past two years. Knowing they've got the improved 76ers on deck, followed by a difficult and lengthy West Coast road trip, expect the Raptors to improve on those stats, in convincing fashion.
Bruce Marshall
Clippers at Lakers
Pick: Clippers
Lonzo Ball's much-hyped debut for the Lakers, but the real team to watch is this Clips, with a new bench courtesy of the Chris Paul trade, a new PG in Euro Milos Teodosic to hit Blake Griffin and DeAndre Jordan with plenty of lobs. Luke Walton gained Ball but lost three of his four top scorers from last season.
Buster Sports
Memphis at Houston
Play: Over 61.5
Memphis goes to Houston tonight in a college football matchup that has a couple of defenses that have struggled this year. To say Memphis has struggled is an understatement as they are sporting the 117th rank defense in college football. As for Houston, they sit at 83rd. We believe we are going to have a little bit of a shootout on our hands tonight in Houston. The last two games in the series have been very high scoring and this year’s matchup should be no different. QB Riley Ferguson leads an offense that is ranked 14th in the nation and they put up a bunch of points. On the other side, Houston’s QB Kyle Postma had a rough game last week but they have a solid offense as well ranking 52nd. We see Postma and the Houston offense getting back on track against Memphis tonight. At the time of this writing, the total is at 61 1/2 and we like this game to fly over the total.
Harry Bondi
Chiefs / Raiders Under 47
History tells us this should be a low-scoring affair. Not only have these two teams combined to go under in 10 of their last 26 divisional games, but the under has also cashed in 60% of the meetings between these two rivals since 1992, including in three of the last four meetings. In fact, ;last year in both meetings the over/under was posted in this same range at 46 and 47 points and the two games went under the total by a combined 23 points.
Rob Vinciletti
Islanders at Rangers
Play: Rangers -130
The Rangers battle cross town rivals tonight in the NY Islanders. Both teams are off a to a rough start. The Rangers are 7-1 off 3+ losses and are 39-13 vs teams that are .400 or below. The Islanders are 1-5 on the road vs a team with a losing home record. The Rangers blew a late lead here an lost in Overtime to Pittsburgh. Look for them to bounce back at home tonight.