Free Picks: Free Service Plays for Thursday, October 20th, 2016

Robert Ferringo

Miami / Virginia Tech Over 51

Both of these teams are coming off terrible offensive performances last week against horrible defenses. Tech managed just 17 points against Syracuse on the road while Miami mustered just 13 points against North Carolina. Both Miami and VT were in letdown spots from the previous weekend and both played like it. Miami missed its total by over 30 points and the Hokies were close to doing the same. But prior to last week Tech had been averaging around 40 points per game in their previous four while Miami was putting up a hefty 34 per game in its previous four. I see both teams scoring in the 20's and the winner will probably reach the low-30's. Both new coaches are offensive-minded guys, a change for both programs, and I think they will both bounce back from their losses with points. The 'over' is 4-1 in Virginia Tech's last five home games and the 'over' is 4-1 in Miami's last five games after being held below 20 points. This has generally been a low-scoring series, but I see a breakout here.

Brandon Shively

Boise State -7

These teams have been playing annually since 2012. The home team has been dominant the last 3 years with margins of victories all by double digits. In 2014, Boise put up 637 yards of offense against BYU on their home field.

Revenge is an angle here and so is the fade on teams coming off an overtime win like BYU. It’s because a let down usually occurs, especially for a team like BYU that had to rally to tie the game then win it in overtime. Boise State’s last 3 wins have not been as dominant as one would have thought and the Broncos are only 2-4 ATS on the season, but this is a single digit spread and one that presents value. There is value because Boise has been a double digit favorite in ALL 6 of their games this year and are only 2-4 ATS, so the oddsmaker has to adjust.

On the other hand, BYU is 4-0 ATS as an underdog to there is an adjustment being made for the Cougars also. This line opened up offshore at Boise -10, before settling at -7 across the board 24 hours later. It’s not often when you see the majority of bets on the underdog, like BYU, which is the case here. I am generally an underdog bettor, but in this case, I want to lay the points with Boise State as I feel that is where the value is. Upon digging deeper, I found that Boise State is 15-0 SU their last 15 home games when at home and a favorite of 10 points or less. They are 14-1 ATS in these 15 games!

The oddsmaker has been forced to make this line smaller than what it should be based on BYU’s close games this year and also on the account that Boise has not been a good covering team. ( I will note that we have seen some Boise State spreads go up (move) on gameday and wouldn’t be surprised if this one does the same thing).

BYU’s losses against Utah (1 point) and UCLA (3 points) don’t look as good as they once did with both of teams struggling this year. The same can be said with their 2 point win against Arizona. The Cougars have been out gained in 4 of their 6 games overall. Their running back, Jamaal Williams is ranked 4th in the nation with 134 yards a game, but QB Taysom Hill is ranked 87th in passer rating. The Broncos will stack the box and force Hill to beat them through the air which I don't’ see happening. Hill has thrown 5 interceptions while on his own side of the field and has only a 114 QB rating on 3rd downs.

Boise State’s Brett Rypien has 9 TD/0 INT mark his last 4 games. He has a 159 QB rating on 3rd downs. He has a 192 QB rating in the red zone. BYU is ranked #100 in pass defense this year and I see this Boise State team being the more well rounded offensive team with a running and passing game on offense. I am looking for a final score in the 38-20 range as the Broncos home field is huge here and BYU’s brutal schedule finally takes a toll on them.

Carlo Campanella

Packers -7½

The Packers seemed to finally turn things around after winning- and covering the spread- in back-to-back games against the Lions and Giants. However, they dropped to 3-2 SU last Sunday after getting blown out by the Cowboys by 14 points, 30-16, on Lambeau Field!They host the Bears on Thursday Night Football, playing their 3rd STRAIGHT home game and find themselves in a "must win" situation trailing the Vikings in the NFC North division race. The Bears are one of the worst teams in the NFL as they head into Thursday at 1-5 SU & ATS, including 0-3 SU & ATS on the road while losing those three away games by 6, 9 & 14 points! This is a GREAT match-up for the Packers, who should dominate the line of scrimmage, already holding 4 of their 5 foes to an incredible 50 rushing yards or less this season, with only the #1 rusher in the NFL, the Cowboy's Zeke Elliot, gained more. That's bad news for a Bears team that's struggled to run the ball while averaging only 90 rushing yards per game in 2016 and going 0-4 SU & ATS in games which they rushed for 99 yards or less this season! Lay the points in this division battle knowing that Pack QB Rogers is 16-4 SU & ATS against division rivals after he lost his previous game.

Dave Cokin

Boise State -7

So why is this line so high? That’s the first question I asked myself when I saw Boise State installed as a .7.5 favorite on Sunday evening. As soon as I saw that number, there was absolutely no doubt in my mind that the ticket count would clearly favor BYU as what appears to be a very generously priced underdog.

That was a very easy conclusion to arrive at, and it’s playing out that way with the Cougars getting about 60% of the ticket volume based on the info I’m receiving.

Believe me, this philosophy doesn’t automatically translate into winning wagers, but when the “public” is going to like the underdog, and it’s usually not difficult to discern when that’s going to be the case, I will generally at least start looking at the favorite. Not always, and in fact there’s a game on Saturday where I will be on what I anticipate to be a somewhat public dog. But by and large, really popular dogs are a signal for me to begin investigating the other side.

Here’s what I came up with on this game. The power ratings, for the most part, would make this game shorter than -7. The stats, at least the ones I tend to give the most weight to, would also suggest the line should be a shade lower. BYU is only 4-3, but to suggest they’ve accomplished that mark against a tougher schedule than what the unbeaten Broncos have had to face qualifies as a massive understatement.

It’s that scheduling, however, that began to guide me down the Boise State path to at least some extent. BYU has simply not had a break at any point as far as that goes. It has been just one tough opponent after another with no bye week, and while the Cougars have done a nice job overall, at some point it seems almost inevitable they have to start wearing down. That’s even with the knowledge this Cougar roster is loaded with older guys who from that standpoint might have a bit of a physical advantage over younger opponents.

Boise State, meanwhile, has rolled to six straight wins. But aside from the victory over Washington State, they sure haven’t beaten anyone of note. However, I do think it’s fair to offer that the Broncos could well be the much fresher team on Thursday. They just haven’t been taxed physically to nearly the extent BYU has, and that could show on the blue turf in this one.

I’ll also suggest this is probably a bigger game for Boise State than it is for the Cougars. BYU is not in the playoff picture. They’re going to be in the Poinsettia Bowl yet again come December. The coaching staff is doing a great job keeping this team interested each week to be sure. But there’s much more on the line for the Broncos here.

Boise State has no chance to get to the playoffs, even if they run the table. That is just not going to happen. But with a win here, this team has a real chance to get to the Cotton Bowl, and that makes this particular matchup enormous for the Broncos. They have a clear path to a perfect regular season with a win on Thursday night. Obviously, they could suffer an upset somewhere along the line, but at best that’s unlikely. So win this game, win the MWC title game and get set to enjoy the New Year’s holiday in Dallas.

The previous two paragraphs are the keys for me in this game. I think there’s more on the line for the home team, and I might as well toss in the revenge factor from last season. Couple that with the love being shown from the masses for the underdog, and there’s a reasonable case to be made for Boise State as the choice in this game.

Matt Josephs

Bears vs. Packers
Play: Bears +7½

The records may be different, but injuries and recent play make this a lot closer then you think. The Packers are banged up terribly on both sides of the ball as several members of the secondary and Eddie Lacy are out. With the running back not playing, that position is being manned by Don Jackson and Knile Davis who came over on Tuesday. Aaron Rodgers is off a bit and hasn't played well for quite awhile. The Bears secondary isn't that great, but neither was Dallas' and they played well in Green Bay. Sam Shields, Damarious Randall and Quinten Rollins are all out so Brian Hoyer could eat with Cameron Meredith and Alshon Jeffery out wide. Green Bay has only covered half of their last 12 games against teams with a losing record. Chicago won in Lambeau last year and as long as I can get the hook, I'd consider the Bears +7.5

Jim Feist

BYU at Boise State
Pick: Under

The Broncos covet a victory over the Cougars to improve their odds of landing a Cotton Bowl bid as the top team from a non-power conference. Last season's comeback by BYU furthered the growing rivalry between the schools located about 380 miles apart. Both teams can play tough defense, with BYU 5-2 under the total in non-conference games. Senior quarterback Taysom Hill threw three touchdown passes in Friday's 28-21 double-overtime victory over Mississippi State. The under is 26-9 in the Cougars last 35 games after accumulating less than 170 yards passing in their previous game. Boise is on a 9-1 run under the total at home on the blue carpet.

Rob Vinciletti

Devils vs. Bruins
Play:Bruins -140

Boston has their home opener tonight after taking 2 of the first 3 on the road, the last of which was an impressive 4-1 win in Winnipeg. They are 9-1 at home vs New jersey and have won 13 of the last 16 against them overall. The Devils just won their home opener over Anaheim but dropped their first 2 on the road and have lost the last 5 dating back to last season away from home. look for Boston to notch their first win at home.

Bob Harvey

Bears vs. Packers
Play: Packers -7½

It’s been another week of “What’s wrong with Aaron Rodgers”. The Green Bay quarterback is off to a slow start but he’s hopes to put that question to be when the Packers host the Chicago Bears. Kick-off is set for 5:25 PM PT at Lambeau Field.

Rodgers aside, the bigger concern for the Packers (3-2, 2-2 ATS) is the backfield. Eddie Lacy is doubtful with an ankle injury so that could mean a running game featuring practice squad member Don Jackson and Knile Davis, who was acquired from Kansas City on Tuesday.

Rodgers is struggling with his accuracy but he hasn’t a problem with the Bears throwing 14 touchdowns and just one interception for a 127.0 passer rating. However he’s had little success this season. In last week’s 30-16 loss to Dallas, Rodgers was 31 of 42 for 294 yards and a 90.8 passer rating. However he had two turnovers and the Pack’ scored one touchdown in four trips in the red zone.

The one bright spot for Chicago (1-5, 1-5 ATS) is Brian Hoyer, who became the first quarterback in team history to record four consecutive 300-yard passing games. He could make it five straight against a Green Bay defense that will be without its top three cornerbacks.

The Bears are seventh in total offense and fourth in passing offense and they’ll need every yard against the Packers who are 10-2 in the last 12 meetings.

Ricky Tran

Ducks vs. Flyers
Play: Flyers -111

Anaheim's Slow Start: The Ducks are still in search of their first win of the season. They've held the lead just one single time in four games, all away from home.

Home Ice: The Flyers finished last season by winning 11 of their last 16 home games. This will be their first game of the season home at Wells Fargo Center so the players will almost certainly be excited to play in front of the home fans again.

Goalscoring Woes: Philly's D has left a lot to be desired this season, but Anaheim has mustered a total of just seven goals in four games. The Flyers have been way more prolific with 11 in three games.

Carmine Bianco

Sassuolo at Rapid Vienna
Play: Rapid Vienna -0.5

oth sides side a point back of top spot so a full 3 here would give either a leg up on getting out of a tight group. I'm going to lean on the home side here laying 1/2 a goal at plus money. Sassuolo are in a bit of a downward form swing which coincides with a few injuries and with a side with arguable a weaker bench injuries make it that much tougher.

David Banks

Miami @ Virginia Tech
Pick: Miami +6

Miami heads to Blacksburg to take on 4-2 Virginia Tech in a must-win situation. New head coach Mark Richt led the Hurricanes to a 4-0 start but Miami has suffered consecutive defeats, a one-point loss to then No. 23 Florida State and last week’s 20-13 home loss to North Carolina. Miami cannot afford another loss, especially in the ACC’s Coastal Division, if it is to have a chance at the ACC title game.

The Hokies enter the game coming off a disastrous upset loss to Syracuse. Virginia Tech was never in the game and fell victim to the hyper-speed offense of the Orange. This week they will face the pro-style offense of the ‘Canes and must shut down the Miami running game to force QB Brad Kaaya to make plays. It is something that the junior three-year starter has yet to do this season. Kaaya (6-4, 215) has played well; he just hasn’t done anything spectacular or been forced to make a play when Miami has needed it.

Richt has the Miami defense playing very well. Even in their losses, the Hurricanes held both Florida State and North Carolina to just 20 points. Miami is tied for fourth in the nation in scoring defense giving up just 14 points per game. The Virginia Tech offense under first-year head coach Justin Fuente is new and exciting compared to year’s past. Quarterback Jerod Evans leads the no-huddle spread attack with 1,352 yards passing and another 319 on the ground. Evans has accounted for 19 total touchdowns.

Miami will have to slow down the Hokies and do it in Virginia Tech’s own backyard. A Virginia Tech win puts them in the driver’s seat in the Coastal Division. They will face Pittsburgh (4-2, 2-1) next week and hold the tiebreaker over North Carolina (5-2, 3-1), beating them 34-3 two weeks ago.

Joe Williams

BYU at Boise State
Play: BYU +7

BYU is more than battle tested this season, playing difficult opponent after difficult opponent in one of the most difficult schedules in the nation. They hit the road for Boise Thursday night to battle on the smurf turf, but they won't be fazed. BYU is 5-2 ATS in their past seven games, and 13-6 ATS in their past 19 against Mountain West foes. They're also 4-1 ATS in their past five meetings against the Broncos. Boise is winning again, and up to 14th in the rankings, but they're 1-4 ATS in their past five against teams with a winning record, and they have failed to cover the number in each of their past six on the blue turf.

SPORTS WAGERS

GREEN BAY -7½ over Chicago

Jay Cutler’s replacement, Brian Hoyer is the first quarterback in franchise history to throw for over 300 yards in four straight games and nobody is looking for running back Jeremy Langford since Jordan Howard replaced the injured starter. Even with the success of Brian Hoyer and Jordan Howard, the Bears are never quite good enough and occasionally nowhere near good enough to win a game. The second year of HC John Fox and first year of OC Dowell Loggins is not going well .

The Bears are now 1-5. They have back-to-back losses to Indy and Jacksonville, which is not easy to do. They also lost to the Texans in Week 1, 23-14. The NFC North drew the AFC South this year, which is by far the worst division in the NFL. To go 0-3 against the Jags, Colts and Texans doesn’t exactly get a team all jacked up to continue. Now the Bears will travel on short rest to play a team that is taking a lot of heat in the media after being schooled by Dallas last Sunday.

First in line for the media and public bashing of Green Bay is QB Aaron Rodgers. We’ve all read and heard phrases like “he’s finished” or “he’s so overrated”. Well, aside from the host having a big advantage in these Thursday nighters, nobody is better with a chip on their shoulder than Rodgers. Furthermore, losing to a REALLY good Dallas team is nothing to hang one’s head over. Green Bay’s two losses were to Minnesota and Dallas, teams with a combined 10-1 record and they lost to the Vikes by just three. Green Bay has played a much tougher schedule than the Bears.

The 7½ points may seem appealing in a divisional game, especially when you consider that the entire country watched the Packers get taken down easily by Dallas in Sunday’s late afternoon featured game. However, we’re more interested in what Green Bay is capable of against a weak team than we are about last week. We’re also more interested in Chicago’s weak schedule, which speaks volumes. By their own standards, all of them had well-above average days against a Bears defense that the overall season stats claim is league average. They’re not. Don't get fooled into thinking that Chicago is better off with Hoyer or that they’re ready to compete on a short week with a steamed up Aaron Rodgers with something to prove. This Bears’ bunch is more likely to lose a bunch in a row than have things turn for the better in this environment. Aaron Rodgers, like he’s done so many times in the past, is very likely to put a muzzle on the naysayers for at least one more week and the Packers are likely to steamroll this long time rival.

SPORTS WAGERS

EDMONTON +109 over St. Louis

OT included. Outside of a 6-2 loss to the Sabres in which they outshot Buffalo, 33-24, Edmonton has won its other three games while scoring 15 goals in the process. We all know how dangerous the Oilers are offensively, which figures to bode well here against a team that is 3-0-1 and that has a lot of folks fooled.

With seven out of a possible eight points thus far, everything seems peachy with the Blue Notes but it’s not. No team in the NHL has given up more high danger scoring chances (HDCA%) than St. Louis. The Blue Notes have yet to give up a PP goal, which is something that will not last much longer. Against the Rangers on Saturday night back in St. Louis, the Blues were outshot 35-18 and out-chanced by a 3-1 margin but won 3-2. In Vancouver this past Tuesday, the Blue Notes managed just 24 shots on net and a mere six high quality scoring chances. Give these quality point producers on Edmonton high quality chances and some pucks are bound to go in. St. Louis looks good on paper because of its 3-0-1 record but we’re instant sellers before regression sets in. St. Louis is all smoke and mirrors.

Toronto +166 over MINNESOTA

OT included. The Maple Leafs are a really interesting team this year. They have looked both dynamic and vulnerable but their stock took a huge hit last after they blew a 4-0 lead against the Jets in Winnipeg. That third period meltdown is part of the growing pains this Toronto coaching staff must deal with and address with this young squad.

Mike Babcock is not going to scold them or freak out about a loss like the one the Leafs suffered last night. He’ll use it as a learning curve and focus on all the great things they did. He’ll also make sure the mistakes will be addressed in a positive way. At the end of the day, Toronto has still picked up points in every game and could easily be 3-0 instead of 1-0-2. What’s so appealing about the Leafs taking back a price like this is that they can score goals in bunches and they are only going to improve as the season wears on.

After a 3-2 loss to open the year against the Blues, Minnesota defeated both Winnipeg and Los Angeles to run its record to 2-1. The 6-3 victory over L.A. looks convincing but it wasn’t. Frankly, none of the Wild victories or losses look very good so let’s have a closer look. The Wild have 12 goals on a mere 78 shots on net. They have the highest shooting percentage after three games, which will not continue. Masked in their 2-1 record is that their goaltending duo of Devan Dubnyk and Darcy Kuemper have the lowest save percentage in the NHL. In nine periods of hockey, Minnesota has looked terribly flawed in seven of them. This is a beatable team on its best day and in no way should they be priced in this range so early in the year when they have proven nothing. Toronto goes from a -105 last night in Winnipeg to this price tonight in Minnesota? That’s nuts. Huge overlay.